2000s commodities boom
The 2000s commodities boom or the commodities super cycle
Oil began to slip downwards after mid-2010, but peaked at $101.80 on 30 and 31 January 2011, as the
The 2000s commodities boom is comparable to the commodity supercycles which accompanied post–World War II economic expansion and the Second Industrial Revolution in the second half of the 19th century and early 20th century.[2]
Background of depressed prices
The prices of raw materials were depressed and declining from, roughly, 1982 until 1998. From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the
The analysis of this period is based on the work of
"The volatility and interest rates found its way into commodity inputs and all sectors of the world economy."[6]
Hence, in the case of an economic crisis commodities prices follow the trends in exchange rate (coupled) and its prices decrease in case there are downward trends of diminishing money supply.[5]
Foreign exchange impacts commodities prices and so does money supply: the advent of a crisis will pull commodities prices down.[5]
Boom
A commodity price bubble, known as the 2000s commodities boom, was created following the collapse of the
The renewed interest in coal by
Chlorine price steadily increased throughout 2007 and early 2008 as demand for PVC and some metals like copper, neodymium and tantalum rose due to the increased growth of the BRIC countries' demand for electrical goods. Russia increased production, but the US offset this with production cuts in the late 1990s and mid-2000s.[citation needed]
Molybdenum, rhodium, neodymium and palladium are relatively scarce metals, while manganese and vanadium are, like phosphorus and sulfur, fairly abundant for minor minerals. The major metals such as iron, lead and tin are commonplace.[citation needed]
Recycling of the aluminum, ferrous metals, copper fractions, gold, palladium and platinum in mobile phones and computers had got under way by the mid-2000s.[8][9][10][11][12] Battery recycling has helped bring down both the nickel and cadmium prices.
Food
Corn, wheat, rice, cocoa and Soya beans
Both a rising global population and a sharp decline in
Rising demand in both India and Egypt helped to ramp up demand for American wheat during the bull market during August 2007.[17] Discounted wheat sold at about £11–£15/t. August 2007, with non-discounted wheat at slightly higher price. The November 2007 wheat futures market was trading at nearly £165/t, with November 2008 contracts at £128.50.[17] The market became rather bearish as non-futures prices froze and stagnated in December 2007.[18] The price of wheat reached record highs after Kazakhstan began to limit supplies being sold overseas in early 2008, but had slowed down by late 2008. Food riots hit Egypt on 12 April 2008, as national bread prices rose rapidly in March and April 2008.[19]
In late April 2008 rice prices hit 24
On 31 July, leading economists predicted that food prices, especially wheat would rise in Chad as Russia ended exports due to a domestic drought destroying their wheat and barley harvests.[23] By 3 August, wheat prices stood at $7.11 per bushel[24] due to the Russian export ban.
Fertilizer
There was in increase in the demand for
Sugar
Prices rose modestly and briefly because of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and 2006 but a bigger price climb came later from supply disruptions in India, Brazil, and other places around the world. [27]
Paper
Recycled paper
The price of
Fuel
Coal
Coal prices rose to A$73 per tonne in September[34] and then up to A$84 per tonne in the October 2009[34] due to renewed interest by China's and Taiwan's energy companies.
Oil
During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008.
For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as
The price of oil nearly tripled from $50 to $147 from early 2007 to 2008, before plunging as the financial crisis began to take hold in late 2008.[47] Experts debate the causes, which include the flow of money from housing and other investments into commodities to speculation and monetary policy[48] or the increasing feeling of raw materials scarcity in a fast-growing world economy and thus positions taken on those markets, such as Chinese increasing presence in Africa. An increase in oil prices tends to divert a larger share of consumer spending into gasoline, which creates downward pressure on economic growth in oil importing countries, as wealth flows to oil-producing states.[49]
In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year.[50] In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30[51] a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the US. The high of 2008 may have been part of broader pattern of spiking instability in the price of oil over the preceding decade.[52] This pattern of instability in oil price may be a product of peak oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.[53]
In testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on 3 June 2008, former director of the CFTC Division of Trading & Markets (responsible for enforcement)
The price of oil rose to $77 per barrel on 24 June 2010 as a
Oil prices ended the year at $101.80, falling to $100.01 per barrel on 30 and 31 January 2011.[
Jet fuel
Hurricane Katrina caused Jet fuel prices to rise in 2005 because of slowed down refining in the Gulf Coast area, those prices dipped and the price of jet fuel went up with the price of oil through 2008. [57]
Uranium
There was also a resurgence of interest in
Precious metals
Gold
There was a sharp shift in the prices of gold and, to a lesser extent, both silver and
The period from 1999 to 2001 marked the "
Since April 2001, the price of gold has more than tripled in value against the US dollar,
On 7 October 2010, it cost $1,364.60 per troy ounce,[73] by 7 December reached the all time nominal historic high of $1,429.05 per troy ounce.
Silver
Silver cost $4 per troy ounce in 1992, Prices range around $20–$25 in 2013-2014.
Platinum
Titanium
Titanium prices rose to over $16,000 per metric ton in 2006.[75]
Rhodium
Rhodium prices rose briefly during the millennium period[67] due to increased demand, then collapsed to nearly their original 1995-7 starting price of $500/oz between 2002 and 2004.[67]
Later on, the mysterious and unexpected Rhodium price bubble of 2008 suddenly increased prices from just over $500/oz in late 2006 to $9,000/oz-$9,500/oz in July 2008,
Rhodium is mainly mined as a by-product of other metals such as platinum, so the production is based on production of other metals and therefore on demand of them, and less on the demand of rhodium.
Rhodium rose in price extremely sharply in January 2021 and by mid February 2021 it had reached an all time high of $21,400 per Troy ounce making it the most valuable metal ever sold.
Palladium
Most palladium is used for catalytic converters in the automobile industry.[78] It is also used for some medical, high grade steel, industrial, dental and electronic purposes.
Palladium prices rose sharply during the millennium period[67] due to increased demand, then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end 2002,[67] only to start to rise less dramatically in the year 2006.[67] Palladium prices in 1992 and 2002–04 was about $200/oz. It rapidly shot up to approximately $1,000/oz between 1999 and 2001 and collapsed to only $200/oz by late 2002, but is now just under $500/oz per of Palladium in 2010.[67]
In the run up to 2000, Russian supply of palladium to the global market was repeatedly delayed and disrupted
Rhenium
Because of the low availability relative to demand, rhenium is among the most expensive industrial metals, with an average price exceeding US$6,000 per kilogram, as of mid-2009. It first traded in 1928 at US$10,000 per kilogram of metal, but traded at US$250 per Troy ounce in mid-2010.[82] It traded in July 2010, at about US$4,000–4,500/kg.[83]
Other industrial metals
Aluminium
The price of aluminium was 80
Nickel
The price of
has helped bring down both the nickel and cadmium prices.Copper
It was also noticed that a
Iron
The prices of iron ore rose sharply from around $10 per tonne in 2003 to around $170 in April 2009 (transported to China). After that (written September 2013) the price was between $100 and $150;[100] in September 2014 it started dropping precipitously, and was below $70 per ton in December 2014. The price of steel (at steel plants in Japan) has risen from around $300 per tonne in 2003 to $1,000 in late 2008, stabilizing at $800 in 2012.[101]
The rise in prices made abandoned mines to reopen and new ones to open. It took some years to open mines, so some got a scaled up production around the time the prices dropped (drop partly caused by such production). Furthermore, started construction projects had to be finished so demand only reacted slowly to the rising prices.
Lead
The price of
Zinc
The price of zinc rose sharply in early 2007 after a five-year secular bear market, then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end of the next year.[102] Zinc also exhibited similar bullish trading patterns as most metals did since 2004, but with a different overall price.[105]
Zinc sale prices were 80 cents per pound in July 2008,[109] which was typical of its 2004–2008 pricing levels.[109] By January 2009 it had bottomed out and was worth 45 cents per lb.[109] A spectacular bull market and increased Chinese interest in galvanised construction steel caused prices to top off at $1.20 per pound of metal by January 2010.[109] It then quickly fell back to a routine 80 cents by July 2010.[109]
Zinc is popular in manufacturing and building; its ability to create
Neodymium
Neodymium serves as a constituent of high strength
There was also a strong resurgence of interest in
Other metals
The
Niobium is used in the steel of gas
Battery recycling has helped bring down both the nickel and
Baltic Dry Index
The
Chemicals
Sulphuric acid
In 2002, 95% pure
and increased demand in China, the acid's price soared to $329/tonne in May 2008, from just $90/tonne in October 2007. It has become steadily cheaper since the start of 2010.Most
Non metals
Chlorine
Chlorine products such as
As a result of fight of supply and high operating rates in May 1997, two chlorine producers took the bold initiative of calling for an average price rise of $25 per short ton. Other producers were considering bringing the total price increase for the 1997 product year to date of up to $80 per short and fob ton, from $45–$50 per short and fob ton in May 1996. This occurred as both rapidly ascending demand from the
Chlorine prices rose in May 2005 as both growing energy costs, shrinking supply and high
The gas's price steadily increased throughout 2007 and early 2008 as demand for
America's chlorine prices rose suddenly from about $125–$150 per ton fob between June and August 2009 months on a sharp rise in chlor-alkali production and capacity cuts after a year in which production quotes largely stay flat.[121] The spot price surged more than 300% to about $475–$525 ton fob in August 2009.[121] Both Russia and the European Union were also increasing chlorine production to stabilise world prices.[121]
Non discounted American chlorine was priced at $390–410 short ton and discounted prices stood at $300 per short ton between November 2009 and February 2010.[122] As the European chlorine production spiked in November to a daily output of 26,971 tonnes, before falling to 23,667 short ton in December due to the Christmas and New Year holidays.[122] Production was about European production was 25.8% higher than December 2008 levels.[122]
Cotton
The price of cotton was rising in 2010 and peaked in early 2011. India the worlds second largest exporter restricted shipments to help its domestic textiles industry [123]
Late-2000s economic fallout
Many firms, individuals, and
The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the 34th G8 summit in July 2008.[124]
The 2008 price glitch
In the second half of 2008, the prices of most commodities fell dramatically on expectations of diminished demand in the world recession and credit crunch.[125] Prices began to rise again in late 2009 to mid-2010 (as supply could not meet demand), triggering another round of boom that lasted until 2014, when fossil fuels and metals prices collapsed in a far more prolonged fashion that looks to far eclipse that of 2008.[citation needed]
Mine closures
The heavy price volatility caused a sudden boom then bust in the mining industry across the world, e.g. in
Opinions on the commodities bubble
Coincidentally, long-only
In February 2008, analyst Gary Dorsch wrote:
Commodities have historically been regarded as wildly volatile and risky, but since 2006, crude oil, gold, copper, silver, platinum, cocoa, and grains have soared, hitting record highs, and have trounced returns in the mismanaged G-7 stock markets ... A remarkable run-up in prices of wheat, corn, oilseeds, rice, and dairy products, along with sharply higher energy prices, have been blamed on supply shortfalls, strong demand for bio-fuels, and an inflow of $150 billion from investment funds. From a year ago, Chicago wheat futures have soared +120%, corn +20%, and soybeans are +80% higher. Rough rice is up 55%, and platinum touched $2,000 /oz, up 80% from a year ago, while US cocoa futures hit a 24-year high ... Fund managers are pouring money into commodities across the board as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world's money supply, and competitive currency devaluations engineered by central banks.[134]
Economist James D. Hamilton has argued that the increase in oil prices in the period of 2007 to 2008 was a significant cause of the recession. He evaluated several different approaches to estimating the impact of oil price shocks on the economy, including some methods that had previously shown a decline in the relationship between oil price shocks and the overall economy. All of these methods "support a common conclusion; had there been no increase in oil prices between 2007:Q3 and 2008:Q2, the US economy would not have been in a recession over the period 2007:Q4 through 2008:Q3".[135] Hamilton's own model, a time-series econometric forecast based on data up to 2003, showed that the decline in GDP could have been successfully predicted to almost its full extent given knowledge of the price of oil. The results imply that oil prices were entirely responsible for the recession; however, Hamilton himself acknowledged that this was probably not the case but maintained that it showed that oil price increases made a significant contribution to the downturn in economic growth.[136]
Aftermath
In the mid-2010s,
Synoptic chart on 1990–2010 prices
This article needs to be updated.(May 2013) |
All prices are in either £, €, $/US$ or A$, depending on the nationality of sources available.
Commodity | Image | 1990–2010 lowest price per unit | 1990–2010 highest price per unit |
---|---|---|---|
Wheat | £11-£15 for discounted and slightly higher for non-discounted wheat (2007) | £91 for both (2010) | |
Recycled paper |
£10 (2009) | $235 (2008) | |
Crude oil |
$30 (2005) | $147.30 (2008) | |
Copper | $1,600 (1999) | $9,000 (2006) | |
Gold | $252.90 (1999) | Over $1900 (2011)[142] | |
Aluminum | $0.45 (1998) | $1.50 (2006) | |
Platinum | $325 (1994) | $2,200 (2007) | |
Silver | $4 (1992) | $49.80 (April 2011) [143] | |
Coal | A$72.00 (2009) | A$112.50 (2010) | |
Nickel | £8,300 (2009) | £36,700 (2007) | |
Uranium | $10 (2001) | $300 (2007) | |
Rhodium | $500 (1995–1997, 2002–2004) | $9,500 (2008) | |
Palladium | $200 (1992, 2002–2004) | $1,100 (2001) | |
Zinc | $0.45 (2009) | $1.20 (2010) | |
Neodymium | $16.10 (2000s) | $45 (2010) | |
Lead | $870 (2010) | $2,220 (2007) | |
Rhenium | $4,000–$4,500 (2010) | $6,000 (2009) | |
Chlorine | $45–$50 for both classes (1996) | $475–$525 (2009) | |
Sulfuric acid | £55 for 95% pure and £40 for 90% pure (2002) | $329 for both in (2008) |
See also
Notes
- ^ "Mark Pervan, global head of commodity strategy at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said commodity prices peaked in the current cycle in early 2011." "International prices of five energy and metal commodities peaked between February and May of 2011. Since their respective peaks, the Brent crude oil benchmark has fallen 15 per cent, coal 42 per cent, copper 33 per cent, aluminium 37 per cent and iron ore 36 per cent."Ng 2013
- ^ Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Germany claimed the commodities super-cycle which began c. 2002, is not coming to an end but just 'taking a break.'Ng 2013
- currency marketscover those concerns separately and in more depth.
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The fate of Latin America's left turn has been closely associated with the commodities boom (or supercycle) of the 2000s, largely due to rising demand from emerging markets, notably China.
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As China industrialized in the first decade of the century, its demand for raw materials rose, pushing up the prices of South American minerals, fuels, and oilseeds. From 2000 to 2013, Chinese trade with Latin America rocketed from $12 billion to over $275 billion. ... Its loans have helped sustain leftist governments pursuing otherwise unsustainable policies in Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela, whose leaders welcomed Chinese aid as an alternative to the strict conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund or the financial markets. ... The Chinese-fueled commodity boom, which ended only recently, lifted Latin America to new heights. The region -and especially South America- enjoyed faster economic growth, a steep fall in poverty, a decline in extreme income inequality, and a swelling of the middle class.
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Further reading
- Chimni, B. S. (1987). International Commodity Agreements A Legal Study. London: Croom Helm. ISBN 978-0-7099-5420-0.
External links
- Lehman Brothers warns of resources collapse (20 May 2008)
- Askar Akayev's research group predicts the burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April – June 2011
- Latin American Growth in the 21st Century: The 'Commodities Boom' That Wasn't Archived 27 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine, from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, May 2014
- Ng, Eric (10 July 2013). "Commodities super-cycle is 'taking a break': Runaway prices in commodities markets have ended, but long-term demand for commodities on the mainland is strong". South China Morning Press (SCMP). Retrieved 22 July 2013.