2006 Swedish general election
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General elections were held in
Reinfeldt reached out to working-class votes in the re-branding as the 'New Moderates', which resulted in sizeable gains in historically left-wing locations in densely populated areas. As a result, several municipalities that had never voted blue before in Stockholm County flipped.[1] This, combined with a landslide overall win in the capital region as a whole and strong showings in Scania tipped the balance in favour of the Alliance. The centre-right bloc also flipped the crucial populous municipalities Gothenburg, Linköping, Uppsala and Västerås.[1]
The Social Democrats recorded around 35% of the overall support, which was the party's worst showing in the post-war era. Although the red-green parties received a higher proportion of the vote than in the 1991 hung parliament loss, the coalition fell short of a majority by seven seats, or two percentage points of the popular vote.[1]
The Alliance did not reach 50% of the vote, courtesy of several minor parties gathering up 5.67% of the overall vote.[1] This was the final election before the Sweden Democrats entered the Riksdag, with the party getting close to three percent of the vote, falling short by just above one percentage point. The election also saw the party get above 10% in Bjuv Municipality in its Scanian heartlands and above the parliamentary threshold in the country's five southernmost constituencies.[1]
Campaign
The
The Alliance enjoyed a leading position for over a year over the red-green parties, according to most polls. However the gap between the two blocs (s, v, and mp are assumed to work together) began to close rapidly in January 2006, and the red-green parties took the lead in May 2006; indeed they were ahead of the Alliance in every poll conducted in May and June. However, there was a late shift in opinion back to the Alliance during the summer: in mid-August all polls showed the Alliance leading the red-green parties comfortably.
Unemployment
The Social Democrat government's perceived failure to reduce unemployment was a major issue in the campaign, especially considering the good performance of the
Alliance for Sweden proposed to address the problem by cutting
In addition the Centre Party proposed a special youth
"[Maud Olofsson's] new proposal to abolish job security for the young will not result in more jobs. It will only lead to increased insecurity and an even larger exclusion... More than half of youths under 25 who work already have an insecure job; a time-limited job of some sort. This is most usual among our young female members. The most insecure jobs, 'need-employment' or the so-called 'phone and run locum' is entirely on the employer's terms. Every morning many people sit and wait for their employer to ring. Am I needed today or not?".[12]
Olofsson replied two days later in the same newspaper:
"What LO's Chairperson has not understood is that those youths who already have a job are not covered by our proposal. It does however give a new opportunity for the 146,000 youths who are wholly or partially living in the exclusion the Social Democrats have created... One of the main reasons why companies don't take on new staff is that the risk is too large. If the gamble doesn't pay off then the costs are too great. By lowering the threshold for job creation we are convinced that many youths will be able to take their first steps onto a labour market that they today have never been able to set foot on. We are equally convinced that the great majority of these youths will show their employers that they were right to dare to employ them".[13]
A survey carried out by the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (Svenskt Näringsliv) indicates that 41% of Swedish companies believe that such a contract would increase their willingness to hire young people "to a great extent" and that 51% believe that it would increase it "to a certain extent". 7% of those surveyed said that they did not think that they would be more willing to hire.[14][15]
Computer break-in by Liberal People's Party members
On 4 September 2006, only two weeks before the general election, the Social Democratic Party reported to the police a computer break-in into its internal network. It has been reported that members of the Liberal People's Party copied secret information, not yet officially released, on at least two occasions for the purpose of counter-attacking Social Democratic political propositions. On 5 September the Liberal Party Secretary Johan Jakobsson voluntarily resigned. Leading members of the party and its youth organization are under police investigation suspected for criminal activity.
Opinion polls
The charts below show the results of pre-election polls conducted by the five major polling institutes in Sweden.
TEMO has a summary of all polls conducted since the election in 2002, and is therefore cited as the reference for each poll.
Temo
| Party | August 2006 | July 2006 | June 2006 | May 2006 | April 2006 | March 2006 | February 2006 | January 2006 | December 2005 | November 2005 | October 2005 | September 2005 | Last election | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (s) | 37.7% | 34.8% | 36.8% | 38.3% | 36.5% | 34.9% | 36.3% | 34.3% | 34.5% | 35.7% | 32.1% | 35.5% | 39.9% | |
| Moderate Party (m) | 28.0% | 28.6% | 26.3% | 26.9% | 27.9% | 29.2% | 28.4% | 30.9% | 30.3% | 27.6% | 31.6% | 31.4% | 15.3% | |
| Liberal People's Party (fp) | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 13.4% | |
| Christian Democrats (kd) | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 9.1% | |
| Left Party (v) | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.4% | |
| Centre Party (c) | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | |
| Green Party (mp) | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | |
| June List (jl) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | - | - | NA | |
| Alliance for Sweden (m, c, fp, kd) | 49.3% | 50.1% | 47.6% | 47.8% | 50.1% | 50.6% | 50.2% | 50.9% | 51.8% | 47.5% | 50.9% | 50.6% | 44.0% | |
| Red-Green bloc (s, v, mp) | 46.5% | 45.2% | 47.2% | 48.6% | 46.8% | 46.2% | 46.9% | 45.3% | 44.9% | 46.6% | 42.6% | 45.9% | 52.9% | |
| Undecided (?) | 22.6% | 22.8% | 18.6% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 21.2% | NA% | NA% | NA% | NA% | NA% | NA% | NA | |
Sifo
| Party | 7 September 2006 | August 2006 | August 2006 | August 2006 | June 2006 | May 2006 | April 2006 | March 2006 | February 2006 | January 2006 | December 2005 | Last election | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (s) | 35.7% | 35.8% | 34.1% | 34.6% | 37.6% | 36.6% | 36.2% | 36.2% | 34.9% | 35.3% | 33.2% | 39.9% | |
| Moderate Party (m) | 26.0% | 24.3% | 28.6% | 26.7% | 26.9% | 25.2% | 26.2% | 28.2% | 28.1% | 30.9% | 29.7% | 15.3% | |
| Liberal People's Party (fp) | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.4% | |
| Christian Democrats (kd) | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 9.1% | |
| Left Party (v) | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6% | 8.4% | |
| Centre Party (c) | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | |
| Green Party (mp) | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | |
| June List (jl) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2% | - | - | - | NA | |
| Alliance for Sweden (m, c, fp, kd) | 47.3% | 47.7% | 51.5% | 50.5% | 47.3% | 47.9% | 48.4% | 51.0% | 50.6% | 51.9% | 51.6% | 44.0% | |
| Red-Green bloc (s, v, mp) | 48.2% | 47.3% | 44.9% | 46.1% | 48.9% | 48.9% | 47.8% | 46.2% | 45.8% | 46.1% | 43.7% | 52.9% | |
| Undecided (?) | - | 15.1% | 20.0% | 19.2% | 17.6% | 17.4% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 20.5% | NA | |
Demoskop
| Party | August 2006 | July 2006 | June 2006 | May 2006 | April 2006 | March 2006 | February 2006 | January 2006 | December 2005 | November 2005 | October 2005 | September 2005 | August 2005 | July 2005 | Last election | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (s) | 33.7% | 35.7% | 37.4% | 36.2% | 37.8% | 36.4% | 36.3% | 37.9% | 31.9% | 33.1% | 35.3% | 35.8% | 31.7% | 29.3% | 39.9% | |
| Moderate Party (m) | 30.4% | 30.9% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 30.0% | 31.0% | 31.6% | 30.8% | 30.5% | 31.3% | 30.8% | 30.6% | 31.6% | 35.8% | 15.3% | |
| Liberal People's Party (fp) | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 13.4% | |
| Christian Democrats (kd) | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 9.1% | |
| Left Party (v) | 6.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | |
| Centre Party (c) | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | |
| Green Party (mp) | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | |
| Alliance for Sweden (m, c, fp, kd) | 50.5% | 51.5% | 47.3% | 47.9% | 48.5% | 49.8% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 49.8% | 49.1% | 55.0% | 56.3% | 44.0% | |
| Red-Green bloc (s, v, mp) | 45.8% | 44.3% | 50.5% | 48.8% | 47.9% | 46.0% | 49.0% | 49.7% | 44.8% | 44.6% | 45.4% | 48.3% | 43.1% | 40.2% | 52.9% | |
Skop
| Party | August 2006 | July 2006 | June 2006 | May 2006 | April 2006 | March 2006 | February 2006 | January 2006 | December 2005 | Last election | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (s) | 35.5% | 34.5% | 36.2% | 37.8% | 34.7% | 39.0% | 36.3% | 35.9% | 36.9% | 39.9% | |
| Moderate Party (m) | 26.9% | 24.2% | 25.3% | 24.8% | 21.9% | 23.5% | 26.7% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 15.3% | |
| Liberal People's Party (fp) | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% | |
| Christian Democrats (kd) | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 9.1% | |
| Left Party (v) | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.4% | |
| Centre Party (c) | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | |
| Green Party (mp) | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | |
| June List (jl) | 2.0% | 1.2% | - | 1.4% | - | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | NA | |
| Alliance for Sweden (m, c, fp, kd) | 50.3% | 49.1% | 49.4% | 47.6% | 48.9% | 46.4% | 50.1% | 48.9% | 46.4% | 44.0% | |
| Red-Green bloc (s, v, mp) | 45.3% | 47.3% | 46.9% | 49.1% | 47.2% | 50.4% | 46.7% | 47.4% | 50.1% | 52.9% | |
Ruab
| Party | August 2006 | June 2006 | May 2006 | April 2006 | March 2006 | February 2006 | January 2006 | December 2005 | Last election | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (s) | 40.4% | 37.2% | 36.8% | 35.2% | 37.1% | 35.4% | 36.4% | 38.0% | 39.9% | |
| Moderate Party (m) | 29.1% | 30.4% | 29.9% | 32.9% | 30.2% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 29.0% | 15.3% | |
| Liberal People's Party (fp) | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | |
| Christian Democrats (kd) | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 9.1% | |
| Left Party (v) | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 8.4% | |
| Centre Party (c) | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | |
| Green Party (mp) | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | |
| June List (jl) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.1% | 1.5% | NA | |
| Alliance for Sweden (m, c, fp, kd) | 47.9% | 48.5% | 48.0% | 51.5% | 49.8% | 50.1% | 50.8% | 49.2% | 44.0% | |
| Red-Green bloc (s, v, mp) | 49.6% | 49.0% | 49.0% | 46.0% | 47.0% | 46.9% | 47.0% | 46.9% | 52.9% | |
Results
The final results were published on 21 September 2006 by the
Cabinet of Göran Persson to stay on as a caretaker government until the Riksdag formally elected a new prime minister. The newly elected Riksdag convened on 2 October and the government was presented on 6 October.[17]
The election result is historic in being the worst result for the Social Democrats ever in a general election with universal suffrage (introduced in 1921) and the best result for the Moderates since 1928.[18] Minor parties, that are not represented in the Riksdag, got a total of 5.7% of the votes, which was an increase of 2.6 percentage points, compared to the 2002 election. Behind this increase lay a great success for the Sweden Democrats, gaining 2.9% (+1.5 percentage points) and thus surpassing the limit (2.5%) for gaining governmental financial support for the next four years. Two new parties, Feminist Initiative (0.7%) and the Pirate Party (0.6%), also contributed to the increase.[19] Of the 349 elected Riksdag members, 164 (or 47%) were women.[20] Seat distribution
By municipality
AftermathThe 1994 election, and Persson had been Prime Minister since 1996. The Social Democrats before the election had an agreement with the Left Party and the Green Party that gave them an influence on government policy in exchange for their support. However, both the Left Party and the Green Party insisted that any red-green government formed after the election would need to include them in a coalition.[21]
The four Alliance for Sweden succeeded in gaining enough seats to form a coalition government. The four parties (formerly in opposition) had presented a joint election manifesto (although c, fp, and kd still had individual manifestos). Their candidate for Prime Minister was the Moderate Party leader, Fredrik Reinfeldt .
AnalysisThe regime shift that occurred in the 2006 election, however, can be traced to changes in popularity between the party - blocs prior to the campaign really started and to the timing of two extreme natural disasters that combined had a dramatic impact on the Swedish political landscape. In a dissertation from the Department of Government at Uppsala University, entitled "Natural Disasters and National Election", PhD Lina M. Eriksson found in her research that the Indian Ocean’s 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami and 2005 Storm Gudrun (Erwin), which struck only two weeks following the tsunami, impacted on the 2006 historic regime shift that occurred in the 2006 Swedish parliamentary election. The results from this research show that the 2002-2006 incumbent Social Democratic Party's (S) poor crisis response to Gudrun, which is the hitherto most costly natural disaster in Swedish history, alone has an estimated effect of a magnitude that likely was crucial to the 2006 historic regime shift. In the abstract to the thesis one can read "The 2002-2006 incumbent Social Democratic Party (S) received its lowest voter support since 1914 as roughly 150,000, or 8%, of the 2002 S voters went to the main opposition, the conservative Moderate Party (M). This became the most decisive factor in ousting S from power after 12 years of rule. As a result, the M-led Alliance (A) with the People's Party (FP), the Center Party (C), and the Christian Democrats (KD) won the election. Natural Disasters and National Election makes the novel contribution of proposing two natural disasters, the Indian Ocean’s 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami and 2005 Storm Gudrun (Erwin), which struck only two weeks following the tsunami, as major events that impacted government popularity in the 2006 election and contributed to the redistribution of voter support, within and across party-blocs. The core findings from this thesis show that the S government’s poor crisis response to Gudrun, which is the hitherto most costly natural disaster in Swedish history, alone has an estimated effect of a magnitude that likely contributed to the 2006 historic regime shift, while the tsunami also seems to have mattered. The tsunami is particularly interesting, as S’s poor international crisis response to the event constitutes the first natural disaster situation to knowingly have affected an election on the other side of the planet. Moreover, to some degree voters recognized the active opposition by C as effective representation and rewarded the party for its strong stance on the poor handling of both events by S. In fact, the active voice of C concerning these disasters likely helped move the party from the periphery of party politics to becoming the third-largest party in Swedish politics. In sum, this research investigates accountability and effective party representation via retrospective voting, which is an essential mechanism for the legitimacy of democracy. Findings suggest that the average Swedish voter indeed may be voting retrospectively to hold publicly elected officials accountable, which suggest a healthy status of the retrospective voting mechanism and Swedish democracy."[22] Part of the dissertation has also been published in Electoral Studies, which is to be considered the leading scientific journal in election research. In the article[23] long-term effects are also found over the 2010 and 2014 election, which implies that the Storm triggered long-lasting changes in voter support from the left to the right side of the political spectrum. A comprehensive summary of the dissertation is available for download via Uppsala University.[24] See also
Further reading
References
External links Wikimedia Commons has media related to Swedish general election, 2006.  Wikinews has related news:
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