2008–2009 Ukrainian financial crisis
This article needs to be updated.(May 2011) |
Ukraine was hit heavily by the Great Recession, the World Bank expected Ukraine's economy to shrink 15% in 2009[1] with inflation having been 16.4%.[2]
The
According to a forecast by the State Employment Centre, unemployment in Ukraine would triple to 9% in 2009 (there was 3% unemployment at the end of 2008), which would mean about 3 million people would apply for employment services.
The Ukrainian economy recovered in the first quarter of 2010.[10]
Reasons for crisis
Analysts say the reasons for the crises were slumping steel prices, local banking problems and the cutting of Russian gas supply of January 2009.[11][12] This made key industries such as metallurgy and machine building lay off workers, and real wages started to fall for the first time in a decade.
In 2008 the
According to David Heslam of
In November 2009, Ukraine's Minister of Economics Bohdan Danylyshyn stated that in his view the "permanent conflicts" and "lack of understanding" between the
Asked in August and October 2009 "Who bears the most responsibility for the difficult socioeconomic situation in Ukraine?" about a half of all Ukrainians polled (47%) answered President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, and 22% blamed Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko, while 17% of the respondents thought that the Verkhovna Rada was also responsible for the lack of progress in solving economic problems.[6]
Crises per year
2008
The share of problem loans in bank portfolios grew to 10.3 percent by 11 December 2008 and is continuing to grow. Banks have all but stopped issuing loans, and clients have hurried to withdraw deposits. In October 2008, the National Bank of Ukraine introduced a moratorium on withdrawals ahead of schedule.[12] Industrial output in November 2008 tumbled 28.6 percent, following a 19.8 decline in October 2008. Steel production slumped 48.8 percent, oil refining and chemical output fell 35.2 percent and machine building by 38.8 percent.[19] Ukraine's economy shrunk 14.4 percent year-on-year in November 2008. Statistical data showed the gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 3.6 percent in January–November compared to 5.8 percent in January–October. Ukraine's Economy Ministry expects the economy to grow 3.5-4.0 percent in 2008.[20] The Hryvnia also lost value.[21]
According to a poll (held 25 November through 5 December 2008) by the Horshenin Institute of Management Problems about 79% of those polled suffered from rise in prices, about 29% from delays in payment of salaries. More than some 20% have suffered from reduction of salaries. In the families of some 14.8% somebody lost their job, and some 6% said their enterprise shut down.[22] A total of 90.8% of those polled described their financial state as "making both ends meet" and 83.1% said they are short of money for food. Only 2.4% of Ukrainians said they were not hit by the economic crisis at all.[23]
Mid-December 2008 the
In November 2008, the IMF approved a stand-by loan program for Ukraine to the tune of
In November 2008, the official unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percent to 2.3 (Previously 1.9% in September), the State Statistics Committee said that as of 1 December 2008, it registered 640,000 unemployed people.[28]
2009
Ukraine's banking system recorded losses of ₴7 billion (UAH) ($909 million) in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a profit of ₴2.1 billion in the same period a year ago, according to a central bank report of 22 April 2009.[29] In April 2009 the IMF forecast an 8.0 percent shrink of the Ukrainian economy in 2009 and a 1.0 percent grow in 2010.[30] In Mid-April 2009, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the IMF mission chief in Ukraine, stated that there were a number of encouraging signs that Ukraine's economy had started to adjust to the global crisis. According to Olena Belan, analyst at Dragon Capital, "that is a good signal for investors, showing that Ukraine is taking anti-crisis measures and the economic situation is under control."[31] Foreign direct investment did plunge 66% (to $2.7 billion) in the first half of 2009.[32]
On 18 May 2009 Ukraine's State Statistics Committee reported that the
The Ukrainian state became the de facto owner of Ukrhazbank (84.21% after investing ₴3.2 billion), Rodovid Bank (99.97% after investing ₴2.809 billion) and Bank Kyiv (99.93% after investing ₴3.563 billion) early June 2009.[34]
The industrial output of Ukraine in the period January–August 2009 shrank by 29.6% compared to the same period in 2008. The fall in Ukraine's industrial output slowed to 26.7% in July 2009 compared to July 2008, compared to a fall of 27.5% in June and 31.8% in April and May 2009 (compared to 2008 again).[35]
On 17 September 2009 the World Bank approved a loan for Ukraine in the amount of $400 million.[36]
According to a public opinion poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine in September/October 2009 46.2% of those polled thought that the economic situation in the country would worsen within the next few months, while 35% stated that the economic situation in Ukraine would remain unchanged and 8% thought the situation would improve.[37]
On 1 November 2009 the
In late November 2009, acting vice governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Vasyl Pasichnyk forecasted no mass bankruptcies in the Ukrainian banking sector.[39]
2010
Ukraine's total foreign debt (state and corporate) had reached 93.5% of the 912.563 billion
18 March 2010 the
The Ukrainian economy recovered in the first quarter of 2010 due to stronger-than-expected growth in the global economy, driven primarily by emerging Asia and Latin America, larger social transfers to the population approved in the 2010 budget law and a lower price for imported natural gas (due to the
See also
References
- ^ Ukraine's economy 'to shrink 15%', BBC News (16 July 2009)
- ^ a b World Bank worsens outlook for fall in Ukraine's GDP to 9%, and inflation to 16.4% Archived 2009-06-11 at the Wayback Machine, Interfax-Ukraine (7 April 2009)
- ^ Deficit of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods and services shrinks by 9.5 times in nine months, Kyiv Post (17 November 2009)
- ^ Ukrainian unemployment to triple in 2009 – employment official, Interfax-Ukraine (17 February 2009)
- ^ Official level of unemployment in September falls by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9 percent, Kyiv Post (15 October 2009)
- ^ a b Ukrainians blame Yuschenko and Tymoshenko for creating economic mess, Kyiv Post (20 October 2009)
- ^ Actual year-on-year wages in Ukraine 11% down in September 2009, Kyiv Post (27 November 2009)
- ^ Ukrainians real incomes in 2009 down 8.5%, nominal income up 6.2%, Kyiv Post (1 April 2010)
- ^ Ukraine agrees budget with IMF, funding seen from May, Kyiv Post (2 April 2010)
- ^ UNIAN(19 May 2010)
- UNIAN(19 December 2008)
- ^ The Jamestown Foundation(17 December 2008)
- ^ Ukraine's economy 'to shrink 9%', BBC News (7 April 2009 )
- UNIAN (18 May 2009). Accessed 2009-05-18. Archived2009-06-02.
- ^ Ukraine's Hryvnia to Rally from Slump, Nomura Says, Bloomberg L.P. (14 September 2009)
- ^ Ukraine GDP Fell 15.9% Last Quarter, Extending Slump (Update3) , Bloomberg L.P. (16 November 2009)
- ^ Economy minister: Permanent conflicts between NBU and Cabinet contribute to deep fall of GDP in 2009, Kyiv Post (21 November 2009)
- ^ Economy Minister insists government get involved in NBU's activity, Kyiv Post (23 November 2009)
- UNIAN(12-12-2008)
- UNIAN(16-12-2008)
- UNIAN(17 December 2008)
- UNIAN(17 December 2008)
- ^ Economic crisis hits most Ukrainians, survey shows, Interfax-Ukraine (17 December 2008)
- ^ IMF Lowers Forecast For Ukraine's 2009 GDP Growth Rate From 2.5% To -5% Archived 2012-07-03 at archive.today, Ukrainian News Agency (17 December 2008)
- ^ Cabinet Worsens GDP Growth Forecast To 0.4% From 6% For 2009 Archived 2012-07-03 at archive.today, Ukrainian News Agency (17 December 2008)
- ^ Head of IMF's Resident Representative Office in Ukraine to change his job, Interfax-Ukraine (17 December 2008)
- ^ Poroshenko Admits Reviewing Of IMF-Signed Memorandum Archived 2012-07-03 at archive.today, Ukrainian News Agency (8 February 2009)
- ^ Official Unemployment Rate Increases By 0.4 Percentage Points To 2.3% In November Archived 2012-07-03 at archive.today, Ukrainian News Agency (18 December 2008)
- ^ CORRECTED - Ukraine banks record $909 mln losses Q1-C.Bank, Reuters (22 April 2009)
- UNIAN(23 April 2009)
- ^ IMF agrees new loan for Ukraine, BBC News, (17 April 2009)
- ^ Investor Unfriendly, Kyiv Post (8 October 2009)
- ^ Deficit of Ukraine's foreign trade in 1Q shrinks by nine times - statistics, Interfax-Ukraine (18 May 2009). Accessed 2009-05-18. Archived 2009-06-02.
- ^ Cabinet Endorses Recapitalization Of Ukrhazbank, Kyiv Bank, Rodovid Bank Archived 2012-09-14 at archive.today, Ukrainian News Agency (10 June 2009)
- ^ Ukraine's industrial output falls 23.3% in August, says statistics committee, Interfax-Ukraine (16 September 2009). Accessed 2009-09-22. Archived 2009-09-26.
- ^ World Bank approves $400 million loan for Ukraine, Interfax-Ukraine (18 September 2009). Accessed 2009-09-22. Archived 2009-09-26.
- ^ Poll: Ukrainians not supporting activities of president, premier, Kyiv Post (12 October 2009)
- ^ IMF warns Ukraine on aid By Roman Olearchyk, Financial Times (1 November 2009)
- ^ Central bank forecasts no mass bankruptcies in Ukrainian banking sector, Kyiv Post (23 November 2009)
- ^ a b Ukraine's gross foreign debt reaches 93.5% of gross domestic product, Kyiv Post (17 March 2010)
- ^ Standard&Poor's upgrades Ukraine's rating, Kyiv Post (18 March 2010)
- ^ Ukraine's external debt up 2.3% in 2009 - National Bank, Kyiv Post (18 March 2010)
- ^ National Bank of Ukraine considers 4% GDP growth realistic for 20, Kyiv Post (18 March 2010)