2011 New South Wales state election

2011 New South Wales state election

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All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Opinion polls
First party Second party Third party   Leader Barry O'Farrell Kristina Keneally No leader Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens Leader since 4 April 2007 4 December 2009 Leader's seat Ku-ring-gai Heffron Last election 35 seats 52 seats 0 seats Seats before 37 50 0 Seats won 69 20 1 Seat change 32 30 1 Popular vote 2,124,321 1,061,352 427,144 Percentage 51.15% 25.55% 10.29% Swing 14.16 13.43 1.33 TPP 64.22% 35.78% TPP swing 16.48 16.48
Two-candidate-preferred margin by electorate
Premier before election Kristina Keneally Labor Elected Premier Barry O'Farrell Liberal/National coalition

The 2011 New South Wales state election held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year-incumbent

The

• Expiry of 54th Parliament: 12am on Friday, 4 March 2011
• Issue of Writs: 5 March 2011
• Close of Nominations: 10 March 2011
• Polling Day: Saturday 26 March 2011
• Return of the Writs: 30 April 2011[4]
• Meeting of 55th Parliament: By Monday, 16 May 2011

Campaign

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011^[5] in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields.^[6] Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs – Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.^[7]

The Coalition had been leading in opinion polling for almost three years, and were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all-time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier.^[8] At one point, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result.^[9] According to several pollsters, Labor was in danger of losing several seats where it had not been seriously threatened in decades, as well as several that it had held for a century or more. Indeed, there were concerns that Labor would not win enough seats to form a credible shadow cabinet.

Resulting parliament

The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house (74.2 percent of the chamber)—in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats (69.7 percent of the chamber) at Neville Wran's second "Wranslide" in 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century, and the worst defeat that a sitting government in NSW has ever suffered. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene.^[10] In the process, the Coalition took dozens of seats in areas considered Labor heartland, such as western Sydney and the Upper Hunter—some on swings of well over 10 per cent. The Liberals actually won 51 seats, enough for a majority in their own right—the first time the main non-Labor party in the state had achieved this since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. Although O'Farrell thus had no need for the support of the Nationals, he opted to retain the Coalition.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition were required to pass legislation. The

Legislative Council

Labor (4)

• Tony Catanzariti
• Kayee Griffin
• Christine Robertson
• Ian West

Greens (1)

• Ian Cohen

Opinion polling

Opinion polling was conducted by firms such as Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen via random telephone number selection in city and country areas

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)^[16][17][18]

Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
		Liberal	1,602,457	38.58	+11.64	51	29
		National	521,864	12.56	+2.51	18	5
	Coalition total		2,124,321	51.15	+14.16	69	34
	Labor		1,061,352	25.55	–13.43	20	32
	Greens		427,144	10.28	+1.33	1	1
	Christian Democrats		129,431	3.12	+0.65	0
	Hatton's Independent Team		45,969	1.10	+1.10	0
	Family First		18,576	0.45	+0.45	0
	Socialist Alliance		3,180	0.07	+0.07	0
	Social Justice Network		3,173	0.07	+0.07	0
	Independent Australia First		2,446	0.06	+0.06	0
	Socialist Equality		2,056	0.05	+0.05	0
	Democratic Labor		1,855	0.04	+0.04	0
	United We Stand		1,414	0.03	+0.03	0
	Progressive Labour		1,372	0.03	+0.03	0
	Communist League		1,226	0.03	+0.03	0
	Sex Party		676	0.02	+0.02	0
	Democrats		617	0.01	–0.39	0
	Independent Protectionist		289	0.01	+0.01	0
	Independents		314,066	7.56	–1.62	3	3
Formal votes			4,153,335	96.72	+0.18	–	–
Informal votes			137,260	3.20	+0.43	–	–
Total			4,290,595	–	–	93	–
Registered voters / turnout			4,635,810	92.55	–0.09	–	–
Two-party-preferred vote
	Coalition		2,324,226	64.22	+16.48
	Labor		1,294,824	35.78	–16.48

Legislative Council

Main article:

Shooters and Fishers150,7413.70+0.901120Christian Democrats

127,2333.12-1.301120Other434,43710.66+0.300000Total4,076,024100.00–2121420

Seats changing hands

Seat	Pre-2011				Swing	Post-2011
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Balmain		Labor	Verity Firth	3.7	–7.2	3.5*	Jamie Parker	Greens
Bathurst		Labor	Gerard Martin	13.0	–36.7	23.7	Paul Toole	National
Blue Mountains		Labor	Phil Koperberg	11.1	–15.8	4.7	Roza Sage	Liberal
Camden		Labor	Geoff Corrigan	3.9	–22.8	18.9	Chris Patterson	Liberal
Campbelltown		Labor	Graham West	18.5	–21.9	3.4	Bryan Doyle	Liberal
Charlestown		Labor	Matthew Morris	14.6	–24.5	9.9	Andrew Cornwell	Liberal
Coogee		Labor	Paul Pearce	7.2	–15.4	8.2	Bruce Notley-Smith	Liberal
Dubbo		Independent	Dawn Fardell	0.9	–14.6	13.7	Troy Grant	National
Drummoyne		Labor	Angela D'Amore	7.6	–24.3	16.7	John Sidoti	Liberal
East Hills		Labor	Alan Ashton	14.1	–14.7	0.6	Glenn Brookes	Liberal
Gosford		Labor	Marie Andrews	4.9	–16.7	11.9	Chris Holstein	Liberal
Granville		Labor	David Borger	11.1	–13.7	2.6	Tony Issa	Liberal
Heathcote		Labor	Paul McLeay	8.8	–21.4	12.7	Lee Evans	Liberal
Kiama		Labor	Matt Brown	12.0	–19.5	7.5	Gareth Ward	Liberal
Londonderry		Labor	Allan Shearan	6.9	–19.2	12.3	Bart Bassett	Liberal
Maitland		Labor	Frank Terenzini	9.7	–16.0	6.3	Robyn Parker	Liberal
Menai		Labor	Alison Megarrity	2.7	–27.1	24.4	Melanie Gibbons	Liberal
Miranda		Labor	Barry Collier	0.8	–21.8	21.0	Graham Annesley	Liberal
Monaro		Labor	Steve Whan	6.3	–8.3	2.0	John Barilaro	National
Mulgoa		Labor	Diane Beamer	11.1	–23.2	12.0	Tanya Davies	Liberal
Newcastle		Labor	Jodi McKay	1.2	–3.6	2.4	Tim Owen	Liberal
Oatley		Labor	Kevin Greene	14.4	–14.9	0.5	Mark Coure	Liberal
Parramatta		Labor	Tanya Gadiel	13.7	–25.8	12.1	Geoff Lee	Liberal
Port Macquarie		Independent	Peter Besseling	28.2**	–35.1	6.9	Leslie Williams	National
Riverstone		Labor	John Aquilina	10.1	–30.3	20.2	Kevin Conolly	Liberal
Rockdale		Labor	Frank Sartor	10.3	–13.9	3.6	John Flowers	Liberal
Smithfield		Labor	Ninos Khoshaba	15.5	–20.3	4.8	Andrew Rohan	Liberal
Strathfield		Labor	Virginia Judge	15.1	–19.3	4.3	Charles Casuscelli	Liberal
Swansea		Labor	Robert Coombs	10.8	–11.9	1.1	Garry Edwards	Liberal
Tamworth		Independent	Peter Draper	4.8	–12.5	7.8	Kevin Anderson	National
The Entrance		Labor	Grant McBride	4.9	–17.3	12.5	Chris Spence	Liberal
Wollondilly		Labor	Phil Costa	3.3	–18.0	14.7	Jai Rowell	Liberal
Wyong		Labor	David Harris	6.9	–9.4	2.5	Darren Webber	Liberal

• *Figure is Greens v Liberal
• **Figure is from the 2007 state election, where Rob Oakeshott was the independent candidate.
• In addition, the Liberals retained Ryde and Penrith, which were gained from Labor at by-elections.
• Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.

Every seat in New South Wales swung to the Coalition on a

two-party-preferred basis. The Coalition won the largest government in New South Wales history in a huge landslide, while Labor suffered the largest swing against a sitting government anywhere in Australia (and on any level) since World War II, as well as one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation. This led to 12 consecutive years of Coalition government in New South Wales (the longest Coalition government and the third-longest state government overall in New South Wales history), until the Coalition was narrowly defeated in 2023

.

The Liberals alone won more first preference votes than Labor (usually it takes both Coalition parties, the Liberals and the Nationals, to have a higher first preference vote than Labor).

Labor only had two

Western Sydney. The seats were Bankstown (on a 10.3% margin) and Liverpool (on a 14.7% margin). Labor only held five seats outside of Sydney (Cessnock, Keira, Shellharbour, Wallsend and Wollongong

).

Ultimately, the Liberals won 29 seats from Labor (Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Charlestown, Coogee, Drummoyne, East Hills, Gosford, Granville, Heathcote, Kiama, Londonderry, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Mulgoa, Newcastle, Oatley, Parramatta, Riverstone, Rockdale, Smithdale, Strathfield, Swansea, The Entrance, Wollondilly and Wyong) while the Nationals won two seats from Labor (Bathurst and Monaro). The Nationals gained three seats from independents (Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth), which were Nationals seats held by personally popular independents. It is likely that Port Macquarie and Tamworth were regained by the Nationals easily due to a move by two independents in the federal seats of Lyne (Rob Oakeshott) and New England (Tony Windsor), which partially overlap with the respective state seats, which angered the locals, who are mostly liberal conservatives in some of the most safely-held Coalition seats in the country. The move that supposedly caused this was the decision of these two independents to support Julia Gillard, who formed a Labor minority government, over the Coalition under Tony Abbott (although Oakeshott stated that he would have supported the Coalition if Malcolm Turnbull was their leader instead of Abbott). Oakeshott and Windsor were personally popular in these seats (with Oakeshott even being an ex-National), but on traditional two-party-preferred contests, the Nationals were well ahead of Labor. The member for Port Macquarie, Peter Besseling, was friends with Oakeshott and previously worked as his advisor, thus angering Port Macquarie locals. Independents held just three seats after the election: Lake Macquarie, Northern Tablelands and Sydney.

The Greens won their first ever seat in New South Wales, the formerly-safe Labor seat of Balmain in inner-city Sydney, despite the Liberals winning the first preference vote.

See also

• Government of New South Wales
• O'Farrell ministry
• First Baird ministry
• Shadow Ministry of John Robertson
• Post-election pendulum for the 2007 New South Wales state election
• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, 2011–2015
• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Council, 2011–2015

References

1. ^ ^{a b c} "A turning point for the Libs". The Daily Telegraph. 20 October 2008. Retrieved 20 May 2009.
2. ^ "Liar Paluzzano resigns from parliament". The Daily Telegraph. Australian Associated Press. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 8 May 2010.
3. ^ "Libs claim victory in Penrith". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. AAP. 19 June 2010. Retrieved 19 June 2010.
4. ^ "Writs of Elections" (PDF). Government Gazette. Government of New South Wales. 5 March 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 13 May 2011. Retrieved 24 March 2011.
5. ^ Nicholls, Sean (4 February 2011). "NSW election campaign launch: Labor beats Coalition to the punch". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
6. ^ Salusinszky, Imre (12 February 2011). "Labor election strategy already failing the test". The Australian. News Limited. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
7. ^ "Coalition kicks off NSW election campaign". Telegraph — News Ltd. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 25 March 2011.
8. ^ "Labor steels itself for disaster with day to go". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 25 March 2011.
9. ^ "NSW Labor may only win 13 seats: ABC PM 25 March 2011". Abc.net.au. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
10. ^ "Avoid scandals, O'Farrell tells his MPs". News.smh.com.au. 30 March 2011. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
11. ^ "Legislative Council, NSW election 2011". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
12. ^ "Upper House shift from left to right". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
13. ^ "NSW must emerge from Labor's heart of darkness". The Australian. News Limited. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
14. ^ "It's time for a state cleanout". The Daily Telegraph. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
15. ^ "NSW is overdue for change and renewal". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
16. ^ "Summary, NSW election 2011". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
17. ^ "Party totals, NSW election 2011". ABC. 29 July 2010. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
18. ^ "NSW State Election 2011". Electoral Commission of New South Wales. 26 March 2011. Retrieved 15 December 2012.

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to New South Wales state election, 2011.

• ABC Online: 2011 New South Wales Election
• Daily Telegraph: The New South Wales State Election 2011
• 2011 NSW State Election Candidates, Parties and Lobbyists - snapshots of their webpages from 2011