Russian financial crisis (2014–2016)
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The
The crisis affected the Russian economy, both consumers and companies, and regional financial markets, as well as Putin's ambitions regarding the Eurasian Economic Union. The Russian stock market experienced large declines, with a 30% drop in the RTS Index from the beginning of December through 16 December 2014.
During the financial crisis, the economy turned to prevalent state ownership, with 60% of productive assets in the hands of the government. By 2016, the Russian economy rebounded with 0.3% GDP growth and was officially out of the recession. In January 2017, Russia had foreign currency reserves of around $391 billion, an inflation rate of 5.0% and interest rate of 10.0%.[a][8]
Following the
Causes
Event | Date | RUB per USD
|
Ref |
---|---|---|---|
Start of Euromaidan | 21 November 2013 | 32.9975 | [9] |
Annexation of Crimea | 18 March 2014 | 36.2477 | [10] |
Minsk Protocol
|
5 September 2014 | 37.0028 | [11] |
Donbas general elections
|
2 November 2014 | 43.0072 | [12] |
Central Bank intervention | 16 December 2014 | 68.4910 | [13] |
Minsk II
|
11 February 2015 | 66.0305 | [14] |
Economic sanctions
The
Economic sanctions contributed to the decline of the rouble since some Russian oil companies have been prevented from rolling over debt, forcing them to exchange their roubles for U.S. dollars or other foreign currencies on the open market to meet their interest payment obligations on their existing debt.[17]
The impact of the
Fall in oil prices
The Russian economy depends largely on crude oil exports. In February 2014 crude oil prices started to slide down due to the boom in American shale oil production. For every $1 decline in crude oil prices, the Russian economy loses billions of dollars. The price of oil fell from $100 per barrel in June 2014 to $60 per barrel in December 2014.[15][20][21] The drop in the oil prices was caused by a drop in the demand for oil across the world, as well as increased oil production in the United States.[22] This fall in oil prices hit Russia hard, as roughly half of the Russian Federation's governmental revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas.[21] Russia's economy suffers from Dutch disease, a term economists use to describe a situation in which a country focuses on developing its natural resources to the detriment of other economic activity.[23] In 2014, Russia needed an oil price of $100 per barrel to have a balanced budget.[24] As the price of oil falls, Russia continues to sell its oil at operational capacity, without the ability to dramatically increase oil production to compensate for the lower price, and thus due to the reduced profit from selling oil, the government has substantially lower income. Russia is not alone in feeling the ill effects of falling oil prices, as several other countries, including Venezuela, Nigeria, and Kazakhstan, also faced reduced revenues and economic activity.[25]
In August 2015, oil prices fell to US$37 per barrel and then bounced to more than US$45 on 28 August.[26] Now as OPEC has reduced production from November 2016 oil prices have started to move up and so does the rouble.
Other possible causes
Russian
Russia was already near a recession before the
Russian monetary policy
Decline in the Russian rouble
Since the
The recent decline in the rouble has increased the costs for Russian companies to make interest payments on debt issued in U.S. dollar or other foreign currencies that have strengthened against the rouble; thus it costs Russian companies more of their rouble-denominated revenue to repay their debt holders in dollars or other foreign currencies.[41] As of March 2016, the rouble was devalued more than 50 percent since July 2014.[42]
United States dollar |
|
Euro |
Central Bank intervention
On 15 December 2014, Russia had
Just before 1 a.m. local time on 16 December 2014, the Central Bank increased its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% in an attempt to slow or stop the decline of the rouble.[47][48] It was the sixth increase in interest rates by the Central Bank during 2014.[47]
Despite the Central Bank's intervention, the rouble declined further, to as low as 79 roubles to one U.S. dollar, compared to 33 roubles to the dollar in January 2014.
On 22 December, the Central Bank lent $530 million to Trust Bank, which became the first bank to accept a government bailout during the crisis.[50]
On 12 January 2015, the Central Bank's 2014 data of net currency interventions was reported by Interfax, a Russian news agency, to have been $76.13 billion and €5,410,000,000, including $11.9 billion in December 2014.[51]
In 2015, the Central Bank decreased interest rates numerous times. On 30 January, the Bank cut the interest rate from 17% to 15%.[52] On 13 March, it was lowered to 14%,[53] and 12.5% on 30 April. Inflation had slowed to 16.5% by 26 April, down from approximately 17% in March.[54] On 15 June, the interest rate was lowered to 11.5%,[55] and 11% on 31 July. Inflation as of 27 July was 15.8%, an increase from 15.3% in June, as a result of a temporary tariff increase, said the Bank.[56]
State-owned agency
In January 2017, Russia had foreign currency reserves of around $391 billion, an inflation rate of 5.0% and interest rate of 10.0%.[8]
Financial, economic, and social impact
Impact on Russia
On 16 December 2014, the
To get rid of the Russian roubles which were declining in value, many Russians chose to purchase
Some foreign companies halted their business activities in Russia, including Volvo car dealerships and the online stores of Apple and Steam, due to the high volatility and decline of the Russian rouble.[63][67] Additionally, IKEA temporarily suspended sales of certain goods in Russia, in part due to the volatility and in part due to a lack of adequate supply, as numerous Russians bought IKEA furniture.[60]
Many Western financial institutions, including
Russia may also be excluded from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, composed of 26 countries' indices, if capital controls or currency controls are implemented by Russia, since such measures would make it more difficult for foreign entities to access Russian securities markets. Russia would be reclassified as a standalone market in that event.[69]
The 20 December print edition of The Economist predicted that Russia would face the "lethal combination" of a major recession and high inflation in 2015.[70] Others predicted that the crisis would spread to the banking sector.[71] On the other hand, President Putin has argued that Russia was not in crisis, and that cheaper oil prices would lead to a global economic boom that would push up the price of oil, which would in turn help the Russian economy.[72]
On the week of 15 December, Russian gold and foreign currencies reserves were reduced by "US$15.7 billion to below US$400 billion for the first time since August 2009 and down from [more than] $510 billion at the start of the year."[73] Between 15 and 25 December, annual inflation had climbed to more than 10%. Prices of goods, including beef and fish, rose 40 to 50% within a few months before the end of the year due to Russia's ban on Western imports.[73]
In 2014, car sales in Russia fell by 12% from the previous year. The largest Russian oil company, Rosneft, whose largest shareholding was owned by the British oil company BP at the time, lost U.S. and European assets and 86% of profits in the third quarter 2014. Rosneft attributed the decline to falling oil prices and rouble devaluation.[74]
The crisis threatened the continued existence of the Kontinental Hockey League, and several teams missed or delayed payments to their players.[75]
Russian President Putin ordered
As of December 2014, prices of meat, fish, and grain were inflated as a result of rouble devaluation. Some businesses had closed down, especially in the far eastern region of Russia's Siberia due to future rising lease fees.[77]
In the first 8 months of 2014 more Russians left the country than in any year since 1999.[78] Many start-ups and companies were seeking to relocate their businesses outside of Russia.[78] The process that was labeled as "Excodus of tech".[78]
The state-owned gas company,
According to a September 2015 survey conducted by
By the end of 2015 direct foreign investments in Russian economy fell by 92% and more than 200 start-ups ceased to exist by closing down.[82]
Demographic consequences
Calculations presented by a group of demographers from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration suggested the crisis could have very serious demographic consequences (simultaneous growth of mortality and decline of fertility)[83]
As of March 2015, officially, three million Russians more than the previous year lived with less than 9,662₽ (US$169) monthly income, totalling to twenty-three million.[84]
In 2016 over 330,000 Russian citizens applied for US permanent residency through the Green Card lottery program, a 24% increase over the previous year.[85] According to New World Wealth study, over 2,000 millionaires emigrated from Russia.[86]
Global financial markets
The financial crisis in Russia
Companies from North America and Europe that heavily relied on Russian economy were affected by the crisis. American car company
German engineering company Siemens lost 14% of Russian revenue in 2014. German sportswear company Adidas closed down stores and suspended development plans in Russia. Danish beer company Carlsberg Group lost more than 20% of Russian shares. American fast food company McDonald's closed twelve stores, which Russian officials said was due to "sanitary violations". French food conglomerate Danone experienced a loss of operating margins in the first half of 2014 due to rising milk prices.[74]
In January 2015, ratings agency
Impact on former republics of the Soviet Union
The devaluation of the Russian rouble affected the currencies of many
- Ukraine: Ukrainian officials abandoned dollar auctions and raised interest rates to 19.5 percent in 2015.[95] The hryvnia was devalued sixty percent against the dollar between August 2014 and March 2015.[96]
- Belarusian rubel plummeted to its weakest since 1998 by 15 December.[97]
- soum was devalued nine percent on 12 December.[92]According to Daniil Kislov, who runs Fergana.ru, a central Asia news portal, "there are 2.4 million Uzbek migrants in Russia, and those are just the official figures."
- Kazakhstan: The tenge was devalued 19–20 per cent in February 2014, and nearly 40 percent in September 2015 [92][98] However, the more significant devaluation of the rouble is making Kazakh goods less affordable to Russian citizens which reduces sales and manufacturing growth.[92]
- Georgia: The lari had collapsed to its lowest level versus the dollar in more than a decade by 5 December.[93] By 11 December the lari plunged from the pre-crisis average of ₾1.75 to the dollar to ₾1.92-₾1.98.[99] Between August 2014 and March 2015, the lari was devalued twenty percent.[96]
- Azerbaijan: Low oil prices battered its oil-dependent economy. However, it looks impervious to economic turmoil as the government has maintained in reserve a large stabilization fund which has kept the manat afloat against the dollar within its usual band. Most of the country's trade is done with Turkey.[92] On 21 February 2015 the Central Bank of Azerbaijan devalued the manat by 33.5% to the dollar.[100]
- Lithuania: After abandoning the litas on 31 December 2014, Lithuania adopted the euro on 1 January 2015,[101] the Litas endured some inflation.[102]
- Moldova: The leu was devalued twenty-five percent as of February 2015. The central bank raised interest rates by five hundred basis points.[95]
- Latvia: After abandoning the lats on 31 December 2013, Latvia adopted the euro on 1 January 2014.[103]
- Tajikistan: Remittance rates dropped to 49 percent as of October 2014 for the first time since 2009.[98] The somini was devalued 5.5 percent on 12 December.[92]
- Armenia: The depreciation of the Russian ruble and Russia's overall economic downturn drastically emphasized Armenia's considerable economic dependency on the Russian Federation.[106] The dram depreciated from being traded at around ֏410-֏415 against the dollar in late November to a record low of 575 to the dollar on 16 December 2014.[107] By mid-December inflation reached 15% to 20%.[108] Parliament Vice-Speaker admitted panic in the country.[109] The dram recovered significantly and stabilized[110] on 18–19 December to around 460–80. However, inflation remained high, reaching forty percent for some products.[111] In the past twelve months as of August 2015, the dram was devalued 15 percent.[112]
- Turkmenistan: The manat was devalued 19 percent in January 2015.[112] Turkmenistan is one of the trading partners of Russia.
- Estonia: Estonia had abandoned the kroon on 31 December 2010 but adopted the euro on 1 January 2011,[113][114] the economic growth forecast was cut from 3.6 percent to 2.0 percent in April 2014 due to sanctions on Russia.[115] As of April 2014, 11 percent of Estonia's exports had gone to Russia, and 100 percent of its natural gas had been imported from Russia.[115]
Chart of currencies of former Soviet republics
Event | Date | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
// EUR | AMD | AZN
|
BYR
|
GEL | KZT | KGS
|
LTL[b] | MDL | TJS | TMT | UAH | UZS
| ||
Start of Euromaidan | 21 November 2013 | 0.742[117] | 403.82[118] | 0.7844[119] | 9,332.29[120] | 1.6761[121] | 152.74[122] | 48.8687[123] | 2.5622[124] | 13.01[125] | 4.772[126] | 2.8555[127] | 8.1978[128] | 2,169.605[129] |
Annexation of Crimea | 18 March 2014 | 0.719[130] | 415.46[131] | 0.7843[132] | 9,842.75[133] | 1.7242[134] | 182.34[135] | 54.4999[136] | 2.4779[137] | 13.385[138] | 4.8001[139] | 2.8550[140] | 10.0238[141] | 2,236.6599[142] |
Ukraine–Russia Gazprom cutoff | 16 June 2014 | 0.737[143] | 411.09[144] | 0.7843[132] | 10,179.93[145] | 1.7669[134] | 183.13[146] | 51.9848[136] | 2.5439[147] | 13.975[148] | 4.9241[139] | 2.8503[149] | 11.9204[150] | 2,320.1599[142] |
Russian Central Bank intervention | 16 December 2014 | 0.800[151] | 475.19[152] | 0.7832[153] | 10,948.51[154] | 1.85[134] | 184.04[155] | 57.60[136] | 2.7596[156] | 15.465[157] | 5.1301[139] | 2.8503[158] | 15.8500[159] | 2,413.96[142] |
See also
- Economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Cold War II
- Great Recession in Russia
- 1998 Russian financial crisis
- Eurasian Economic Union
- Economy of the Soviet Union
Notes
- ^ The rate is set by Central Bank of Russia
- ^ Lithuania adopted the euro on 1 January 2015.[116]
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