2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arizona voters chose 11 electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot.
Trump carried Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. The state's bitterly competitive nature was attributed to diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population.[3][4] Maricopa County was seen as vital to either candidate's chances in the state–only one presidential candidate has ever won the state without carrying it.[5] Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County since Truman,[6] with a margin of 2.2%, or 45,109 votes.[7] High turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters was also seen as vital. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up.
Biden ultimately won the state by some 10,000 votes over Trump, a 0.3% margin, marking the first time a Democratic presidential nominee carried Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second time since Harry S. Truman's 1948 victory. Arizona was the second-closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia, marking the first time since 1948 that the Democratic nominee won both Sun Belt states in the same presidential election (Clinton won each state in separate elections). This was also the first time since 1932 that a non-incumbent Democrat carried Arizona in a presidential election, or that an incumbent Republican lost the state. Arizona weighed in as 4.15 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2020.
After the election, the Republican-majority Arizona Senate launched a Maricopa County-based publicly-funded investigation into the election fraud alleged by Trump and his supporters. The controversial audit, completed in September 2021, found no evidence to support claims of significant election irregularities. Additionally, the count taken in audit gave Biden a greater lead of 360 votes over Trump than what the earlier, certified results had given.[8]
Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[9] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[10][11][12]
Of the 57 total delegates, 3 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 17 bonus delegates were also allocated.
The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district and county conventions were held from February 8 to April 11 to select delegates to the Arizona State Republican Convention. At the Arizona State Republican Convention, which took place on May 9, the state party formally bound all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump. A May 15 email from the Arizona GOP stated that "every one of our ... delegates ... elected pledged to support Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's 2020 nominees for President and Vice President!"[10]
The 54 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020, on the same date as the Democratic primaries in Florida and Illinois. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 43.7% of the vote and 38 delegates, running ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who received 32.7% of the vote and 29 delegates. No other candidates received any delegates and the only other candidates to receive more than 1% of the vote were Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, with 5.8%, and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 4.1%. Both Warren and Buttigieg withdrew prior to the contest. The other candidates on the ballot comprised a collective 1.2% of the vote.[13]
Biden won 13 of 15 counties in the state of Arizona, with Sanders winning Coconino (home to Flagstaff) and Yuma (home to its eponymous city) counties.
The official vote totals reported by the Arizona Secretary of State added up to 86.7%, as the remaining 13.3% of the vote was composed of candidates whose individual vote totals were not reported.[13]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[15] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 268,029 | 43.7% | 38 |
Bernie Sanders | 200,456 | 32.7% | 29 |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) | 35,537 | 5.8% | 0 |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 24,868 | 4.1% | 0 |
Tulsi Gabbard | 3,014 | 0.5% | 0 |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,921 | 0.3% | 0 |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 754 | 0.1% | 0 |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 668 | 0.1% | 0 |
Roque De La Fuente III | 628 | 0.1% | 0 |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 242 | 0.0% | 0 |
Henry Hewes | 208 | 0.0% | 0 |
Michael A. Ellinger | 184 | 0.0% | 0 |
Total | 536,509[a] | 86.7%[b] | 67 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
General election
Campaign
Arizona was a heavily contested state throughout the election. Once a reliably Republican state, it has trended more Democratic in recent years, with Trump winning it by just 3.5% in 2016. Compared to past Republicans, Trump's performance was historically weak: Mitt Romney won it with a 9.0% margin in 2012 over Barack Obama,[17] John McCain by 8.5% in 2008 also against Obama,[18] and George W. Bush by 10.5% in 2004 against John Kerry.[19] Arizona was one of just ten states to swing more Democratic in 2016, and its 5.5 percentage point swing was the fourth largest in the country.[20] The swing mirrored a nationwide pattern where suburban voters, formerly the principal Republican voting base, swung deep into the Democratic column. Arizona's leftward swing was also credited to a rapidly growing Hispanic population.
Both candidates spent massive amounts of money on advertising, though Biden outspent Trump 2–1.[21]
Trump visited Arizona significantly more than his opponent, holding 4 rallies in just one week, compared to Biden, who only visited the state once.[22][23] Trump favored large rallies with thousands of people in attendance, oftentimes without masks and contrary to the advice of health officials.[24]
At his rallies, Trump campaigned with the Republican Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, as well as Republican Senator Martha McSally, in a bid to help her win against Democrat Mark Kelly in the 2020 United States Senate special election.[25]
Final predictions
Source | Ranking |
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The Cook Political Report[26]
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Lean D (flip) |
Inside Elections[27] | Tilt D (flip) |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]
|
Lean D (flip) |
Politico[29] | Tossup |
RCP[30] | Tossup |
CNN[31] | Tossup |
The Economist[32] | Lean D (flip) |
CBS News[33][c] | Tossup |
270towin[34]
|
Tossup |
ABC News[35] | Lean D (flip) |
NPR[36][d] | Tossup |
NBC News[37] | Tossup |
538[38] | Lean D (flip) |
Polling
- Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Margin | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | October 22 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.0% | 45.8% | 6.2% | Biden +2.2 |
Real Clear Politics | October 25 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.9% | 47.0% | 5.1% | Biden +0.9 |
FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.7% | 46.1% | 5.2% | Biden +2.6 |
Average | 48.2% | 46.3% | 5.5% | Biden +1.9 |
2020 polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other
|
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 27 – Nov 2 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47%[g] | 50% | 1% | 0% | 2%[h] | – |
47%[i] | 49% | - | - | 2%[j] | 1% | ||||
48%[k] | 50% | - | - | 2%[l] | – | ||||
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2 | 4,278 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46%[m] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Oct 29 – Nov 1 | 409 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 50% | 2% | - | – | 1% |
Marist College/NBC | Oct 29 – Nov 1 | 717 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | - | - | 3% | 1% |
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 360 (LV) | ± 7.1% | 46% | 51% | 4% | - | – | – |
Data for Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 1,195 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 0%[n] | – |
AtlasIntel | Oct 30–31 | 641 (LV) | ± 4% | 50.4% | 48.1% | - | - | 1.5%[o] | – |
Emerson College | Oct 29–31 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 6%[p] | – |
Morning Consult | Oct 22–31 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3% | 46% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Data Orbital Archived November 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 28–30 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45.3% | 45.9% | 3% | - | 6%[q] | 5% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 26–30 | 1,253 (LV) | ± 3% | 43% | 49% | 3% | - | 1%[r] | 5%[s] |
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll | Oct 25–30 | 910 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 45% | 3% | - | 4% | |
CNN/SSRS Archived November 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 23–30 | 892 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | 3% | - | 1%[t] | 1% |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports | Oct 27–29 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | - | - | 3%[u] | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 26–29 | 889 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Gravis Marketing | Oct 26–28 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | - | - | – | 8% |
Trafalgar Group | Oct 25–28 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 46.5% | 2.1% | - | 1.7%[v] | 0.7% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28 | 5,687 (LV) | – | 46% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 21–27 | 714 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47%[g] | 47% | 2% | 0% | 3%[w] | – |
46%[i] | 48% | - | - | 3%[x] | 2% | ||||
Swayable | Oct 23–26 | 304 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 44% | 52% | 3% | - | – | – |
Justice Collaborative Project Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] | Oct 22–25 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | 5% |
OH Predictive Insights | Oct 22–25 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 49% | 3% | - | 1%[y] | 1% |
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research |
Oct 17–25 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 50% | - | - | 2%[z] | 3% |
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) | Oct 21–24 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 52% | - | - | 2% | 1% |
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune | Oct 15–24 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[B] | Oct 19–22 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46%[aa] | 46% | 4% | - | 2%[ab] | 1% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 14–21 | 658 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46%[g] | 50% | 1% | - | 2%[ac] | – |
46%[i] | 49% | - | - | 3%[x] | 2% | ||||
Morning Consult | Oct 11–20 | 1,066 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports | Oct 18–19 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 3%[u] | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC | Oct 16–19 | 232 (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived November 25, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 14–19 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46%[g] | 47% | - | - | 3%[u] | 5% |
44%[ae] | 49% | - | - | 3%[u] | 5% | ||||
47%[af] | 45% | - | - | 3%[u] | 5% | ||||
Data Orbital Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 16–18 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | 3% | - | 5%[ag] | 2% |
YouGov/CBS | Oct 13–16 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 3%[ah] | 3% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 7–14 | 667 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47%[g] | 49% | 1% | 0% | 2%[ai] | – |
46%[i] | 50% | - | - | 2%[j] | 3% | ||||
Monmouth University | Oct 11–13 | 502 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 50% | 2% | - | 1%[aj] | 4% |
502 (LV) | 44%[ak] | 51% | - | - | 2% | – | |||
47%[al] | 49% | - | - | 1% | – | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 10–13 | 750 (LV) | – | 45%[ad] | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
Morning Consult | Oct 2–11 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 9–10 | 720 (LV) | – | 46%[ad] | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
Trafalgar Group | Oct 6–8 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 2% | - | 2%[z] | 5% |
OH Predictive Insights | Oct 4–8 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45%[g] | 49% | 4% | - | 0%[am] | 3% |
47%[an] | 50% | - | - | 0%[am] | 3% | ||||
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Oct 4–7 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ao] | 6% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 29 – Oct 7 | 633 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 2%[j] | 4% |
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform[C] | Sep 28 – Oct 6 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | 5% |
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] | Oct 3–5 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 2% | - | – | 3% |
Data Orbital Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 3–5 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 3% | - | 3%[ap] | 4% |
HighGround Inc. [1] | Sep 28 – Oct 5 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | - | - | 4%[aq] | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | Oct 2–4 | 296 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 1–3 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 49% | 3% | – | 1%[r] | 6%[s] |
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) | Oct 1–3 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 50% | - | - | 3% | 1% |
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | Sep 23 – Oct 2 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | - | - | 10% | – |
Suffolk University | Sep 26–30 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 1% | - | 1%[y] | 2% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30 | 7,100 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | – | 2% |
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona[E] | Sep 24–29 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ar] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness[B] | Sep 25–28 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Data for Progress (D) | Sep 23–28 | 808 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45%[g] | 49% | 1% | 0% | – | 4% |
46%[an] | 50% | - | - | – | 4% | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 23–26 | 871 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ao] | 6% |
Data For Progress[F] | Sep 15–22 | 481 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | - | - | – | 10% |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 18–20 | 262 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
ABC/Washington Post | Sep 15–20 | 579 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 48% | - | - | 2%[as] | 1% |
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[permanent dead link][G] | Sep 17–19 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Data Orbital | Sep 14–17 | 550 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 11–17 | 565 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 47% | - | - | 2%[j] | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–16 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 1%[ao] | 8% |
Monmouth University | Sep 11–15 | 420 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 4% | - | 1%[at] | 3% |
420 (LV) | 46%[au] | 48% | - | - | 3% | 3% | |||
47%[av] | 47% | - | - | 3% | 3% | ||||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 10–15 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 49% | 4% | - | 1%[r] | 6%[s] |
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) | Sep 10–13 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 49% | - | - | 4% | 2% |
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | Aug 29 – Sep 13 | 1,298 (RV) | ± 3% | 40% | 45% | - | - | 4%[aw] | 11% |
Gravis Marketing | Sep 10–11 | 684 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 50% | - | - | – | 2% |
YouGov/CBS | Sep 9–11 | 1,106 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | - | - | 3%[ah] | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | Sep 8–10 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | 5% |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP | Aug 28 – Sep 8 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | - | - | 1%[ax] | 4% |
Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7 | 901 (LV) | ± (2–4%) | 46%[ay] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 4–6 | 470 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | 6%[az] | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Aug 30 – Sep 4 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 0%[ba] | 6% |
FOX News | Aug 29 – Sep 1 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | 3% | - | 1%[bb] | 6% |
858 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 49% | 3% | - | 3%[bc] | 6% | ||
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] | Aug 29–31, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48%[g] | 47% | 1%[bd] | 2% | – | 2% |
49%[an] | 48% | - | - | – | 3% | ||||
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31 | 6,456 (LV) | – | 52% | 47% | - | - | – | 2% |
Morning Consult | Aug 21–30 | 943 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 21–23 | 344 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Aug 16–18 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 3%[be] | 10% |
Morning Consult | Aug 7–16 | 947 (LV) | ± (2–4%) | 47% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Emerson College | Aug 8–10 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47%[aa] | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 7–9 | 428 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group | Aug 5–8 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 3% | - | 1%[bf] | 4% |
OH Predictive Insights | Aug 3–4 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[H] | Aug 2–4 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 48% | - | - | – | 2% |
Data for Progress | Jul 24 – Aug 2 | 1,215 (LV) | – | 43%[g] | 45% | 2% | 1% | – | 10% |
44%[an] | 47% | - | - | – | 8% | ||||
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31 | 4,995 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC [2] | Jul 24–26 | 365 (LV) | – | 45% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42%[ay] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 16–25 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bh] | 2% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–23 | 858 (LV) | – | 38% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 3%[be] | 11% |
NBC News/Marist College | Jul 14–22 | 826 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[I] | Jul 17–18 | 960 (RV) | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | 6% |
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[J] | Jul 11–16 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | 6% |
Morning Consult | Jul 6–15 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 45% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12 | 345 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | Jul 7–10 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | - | - | 4%[bi] | 4% |
OH Predictive Insights | Jul 6–7 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | - | - | 0%[am] | 7% |
Morning Consult | Jun 26 – Jul 5 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30 | 2,365 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | - | - | – | 2% |
Data Orbital | Jun 27–29 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | - | - | 3.3%[bj] | 4.2% |
Morning Consult | Jun 16–25 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 43% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28 | 311 (LV)[ad] | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Gravis Marketing/OANN | Jun 27 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 45% | - | - | – | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–17 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 2%[bk] | 13% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Jun 8–16 | 650 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 4%[bl] | 8% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | Jun 13–15 | 1,368 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 5%[bm] | 1% |
Morning Consult | Jun 6–15 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 44% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14 | 201 (LV)[ad] | – | 44% | 45% | - | - | 5%[bn] | – |
Morning Consult | May 27 – Jun 5 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 47% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
FOX News | May 30 – Jun 2 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3% | 42% | 46% | - | - | 6%[bo] | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31 | 329 (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 44% | - | - | 9% | 2% |
Morning Consult | May 17–26 | 784 (LV) | – | 47%[ay] | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | May 16–25 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 46% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
HighGround Inc. | May 18–22 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 47% | - | - | 4%[bp] | 4%[s] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 45% | - | - | 3%[bq] | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights | May 9–11 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1%[y] | 6% |
Morning Consult | May 6–15 | – (LV)[bg] | – | 47% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Archived May 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Apr 13–16 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | - | - | 2% | 5% |
OH Predictive Insights | Apr 7–8 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College | Mar 10–15 | 2,523 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | - | - | 1% | 5% |
Monmouth University | Mar 11–14 | 847 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | - | - | 2% | 6% |
Univision | Mar 6–11 | 1,036 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
OH Predictive Insights | Mar 3–4 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | Mar 2–3 | 666 (V) | – | 46% | 47% | - | - | – | 6% |
Climate Nexus | Feb 11–15 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 42% | - | - | – | 13% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[K] | Jan 22–24 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | Jan 2–4 | 760 (V) | – | 46% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
2019 polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other
|
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | Dec 3–4 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 44% | 0%[am] | 10% |
Emerson College | Oct 25–28 | 901 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 13–23 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | – |
Bendixen & Amandi International | Sep 9–12 | 520 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 42% | 12% | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | Aug 13–14 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
Fabrizio Ward LLC | Jul 29–31 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | May 1–2 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 29, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Feb 12–13 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling
| |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
|
Fundraising
According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $9,284,978.20,[39] Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $15,506,263.10,[40] and Jo Jorgensen raised $29,078.65[41] from Arizona-based contributors.
Candidate ballot access
- Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
- Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican
- Jo Jorgensen / Jeremy "Spike" Cohen, Libertarian
Independent candidates who wished to run were required to submit a nomination petition and financial disclosure form between 120 and 90 days before the primary election. A valid nomination petition required signatures from 3% of unaffiliated registered voters in Arizona as of March 1, 2020. However, the signatories may be of any political party or unaffiliated as long as they have not already signed a petition for a candidate registered in a political party who intends to run in the same election. Petitions may be physical or electronic; in 2012, Arizona introduced E-Qual, an online nominating petition platform.[42]
In-addition,
- Howie Hawkins / Angela Nicole Walker, Green
- Jade Simmons / Claudeliah Roze, Independent
- Gloria La Riva / Sunil Freeman, Socialism and Liberation
- Daniel Clyde Cummings / Ryan Huber, Constitution
- President R. Boddie / Eric Stoneham, Independent
Electoral slates
Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for president and vice president. Arizona is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arizona, a faithless elector's vote is voided and replaced, but the faithless elector is not penalized.[44][45]
The electors of each state and the
These individuals were nominated by each party to serve as the state's members of the 2020 Electoral College should their party’s ticket win the state:[46]
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker Green Party |
Jade Simmons and Claudeliah J. Roze Independent |
Socialism and Liberation
|
Daniel Clyde Cummings and Ryan Huber Constitution Party |
President R. Boddie and Eric Stoneham Independent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steve Gallardo Luis Alberto Heredia Constance Jackson Sandra D. Kennedy Stephen Roe Lewis James McLaughlin Jonathan Nez Ned Norris Regina Romero Felecia Rotellini Fred Yamashita |
Tyler Bowyer Nancy Cottle Jake Hoffman Anthony T. Kern James Lamon Robert Montgomery Samuel I. Moorhead Loraine B. Pellegrino Greg Safsten Kelli Ward Michael Ward |
Timothy Benjamin Howard Blitz Jeffery T. Daniels Alejandro Flores Barry Hess Michael Kielsky Doug Marks Robert A. Pepiton II Brandon Slayton Scott Steward Jonathan Winder |
Cara Bissell Celeste M. Castorena Cesario C. Castorena Angela Dixon Antonio Macías Linda Macías Betty J. McMurrin Elisa Olea Eduardo Quintana Richard Scott Angel Torres |
Celeslie L. Boyer Sydney Curtis Maryann Ehmann Valerie Grapentine Jared Korth JoAnna Langston Erica Martin Kia McMurray Dennis McMurray Jr. Brittany Sanchez Veronica Scheier |
Jahaziel Felix Pedro Gomez Kealy Hartley Alexia Isais Dylan Jacobson Steven Levin Daniel Lopez Joseph Mueller Luzette Romo Madison West Skylar Wise |
Jake Beeson Jaymie Beeson Becca Hansen Jacob Hansen Karen Huber Ryan Huber Deric Powell Kristin Powell Chad Prior Diana Prior Luis Ruiz |
La Deysha Black Donshadre Dukes Travis Froman Maria Guevara Maria Elena Lechaga Omar Leyva Ema Maldonado Rebecca Martinez Lynette Tucci Stephanie Valenzuela Andrea Varela |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,672,143 | 49.22% | +4.82% | |
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,661,686 | 48.91% | +0.98% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
51,465 | 1.52% | −2.56% | |
Green
|
Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in) |
1,557 | 0.05% | −1.27% | |
Independent
|
Jade Simmons (write-in) Claudeliah Roze (write-in) |
236 | 0.01% | N/A | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva (write-in) Sunil Freeman (write-in) |
190 | 0.01% | N/A | |
Constitution | Daniel Clyde Cummings[br] (write-in) Ryan Huber (write-in) |
36 | 0.00% | −0.04% | |
Independent
|
President R. Boddie (write-in) Eric Stoneham (write-in) |
13 | 0.0% | N/A | |
Total votes | 3,387,326 | 100.0% |
By county
County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Apache | 23,293 | 66.05% | 11,442 | 32.44% | 533 | 1.51% | 11,851 | 33.61% | 35,268 |
Cochise | 23,732 | 39.12% | 35,557 | 58.61% | 1,376 | 2.27% | −11,825 | −19.49% | 60,665 |
Coconino | 44,698 | 60.70% | 27,052 | 36.74% | 1,882 | 2.56% | 17,646 | 23.96% | 73,632 |
Gila | 8,943 | 32.24% | 18,377 | 66.26% | 415 | 1.50% | −9,434 | −34.02% | 27,735 |
Graham | 4,034 | 26.84% | 10,749 | 71.52% | 246 | 1.64% | −6,715 | −44.68% | 15,029 |
Greenlee | 1,182 | 31.98% | 2,433 | 65.83% | 81 | 2.19% | −1,251 | −33.85% | 3,696 |
La Paz | 2,236 | 29.93% | 5,129 | 68.64% | 107 | 1.43% | −2,893 | −38.71% | 7,472 |
Maricopa | 1,040,774 | 50.13% | 995,665 | 47.96% | 39,647 | 1.91% | 45,109 | 2.17% | 2,076,086 |
Mohave | 24,831 | 23.67% | 78,535 | 74.88% | 1,517 | 1.45% | −53,704 | −51.21% | 104,883 |
Navajo | 23,383 | 45.03% | 27,657 | 53.26% | 890 | 1.71% | −4,274 | −8.23% | 51,930 |
Pima | 304,981 | 58.41% | 207,758 | 39.79% | 9,435 | 1.81% | 97,223 | 18.62% | 522,174 |
Pinal | 75,106 | 40.48% | 107,077 | 57.72% | 3,342 | 1.80% | −31,971 | −17.24% | 185,525 |
Santa Cruz | 13,138 | 67.10% | 6,194 | 31.63% | 249 | 1.27% | 6,944 | 35.47% | 19,581 |
Yavapai | 49,602 | 34.53% | 91,527 | 63.72% | 2,511 | 1.75% | −41,925 | −29.19% | 143,640 |
Yuma | 32,210 | 45.97% | 36,534 | 52.14% | 1,328 | 1.90% | −4,324 | −6.17% | 70,072 |
Totals | 1,672,143 | 49.22% | 1,661,686 | 48.91% | 63,559 | 1.87% | 10,457 | 0.31% | 3,397,388 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Maricopa (largest municipality: Phoenix)
By congressional district
Biden won 5 out of 9 congressional districts in Arizona.[49]
District | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 50.1% | 48.4% | Tom O'Halleran |
2nd | 54.5% | 43.9% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
3rd | 62.8% | 35.7% | Raúl Grijalva |
4th | 30.6% | 68.0% | Paul Gosar |
5th | 41.9% | 56.4% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 47.3% | 51.4% | David Schweikert |
7th | 73.7% | 24.7% | Ruben Gallego |
8th | 41.4% | 57.3% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 60.8% | 37.3% | Greg Stanton |
Analysis
In winning Arizona, Biden won Maricopa County, by far the most populous county in Arizona,[3] making it the first time a Democrat had done so since 1948.[50] Biden also became one of only two Democrats to break even 45% of the vote statewide since Lyndon B. Johnson did so in 1964. Biden's statewide winning margin of 0.3% remained out of range for a recount, since Arizona Revised Statutes does not have provisions for candidate- or voter-requested recounts. Furthermore, an automatic recount will only be performed if the margin is lower than 0.1%.[51] This was the first time since 2000 that any county in the state flipped parties.
Arizona was seen as a potential Democratic flip throughout the year, as the state's increasing Hispanic population as well as an influx of retirees and younger college-educated voters were becoming increasingly friendly to the Democratic Party.[52]
Analysts attributed Biden's win in Arizona to several factors, including shifts towards Democrats in the suburbs of Phoenix[53][54] and an increase in Native American turnout.[55] Trump's attacks on moderate Republicans, including former Arizona senator John McCain, were also cited as factors that helped Biden, along with Biden's endorsement from Cindy McCain, the widow of John McCain.[56][57] The Biden campaign had released an ad featuring Cindy McCain discussing Biden's relationship with John McCain.[58] Analysts also cited Latino organizing after Arizona Republicans passed controversial immigration laws such as SB 1070.[59][60]
Hispanic and Latino voters
Biden carried the Hispanic/Latino vote by a 59–40 margin,[61] which was eleven points weaker than Hillary Clinton's 61–31 win in 2016 among Latinos, in spite of her loss statewide.[62] Santa Cruz County, where 83.5% of the population is Hispanic or Latino,[63] swung 12 points more Republican than in 2016, while Yuma County (63.8% Hispanic or Latino)[64] swung 5.1 points more Republican.[65]
Native American voters
Biden easily won
Concurrent elections
The presidential election was held concurrently with elections to the House of Representatives and Senate. In the
Exit polls
Edison
The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,639 Arizona voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[71]
2020 presidential election in Arizona by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[72] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
Total vote | 49.36 | 49.06 | 99 |
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 93 | 6 | 22 |
Moderates
|
67 | 32 | 36 |
Conservatives | 11 | 87 | 42 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 96 | 3 | 26 |
Republicans | 9 | 90 | 35 |
Independents
|
53 | 44 | 39 |
Gender | |||
Men | 48 | 50 | 48 |
Women | 51 | 48 | 52 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White
|
46 | 52 | 74 |
Black
|
– | – | 2 |
Latino | 61 | 37 | 19 |
Asian | – | – | 2 |
Other | – | – | 4 |
Age | |||
18–29 years old | 63 | 32 | 16 |
30–44 years old | 47 | 51 | 20 |
45–64 years old | 44 | 55 | 32 |
65 and older | 49 | 50 | 31 |
Sexual orientation | |||
LGBT | 68 | 29 | 8 |
Heterosexual | 48 | 51 | 92 |
Education | |||
Never attended college | 49 | 51 | 16 |
Some college education | 46 | 51 | 28 |
Associate degree | 46 | 52 | 14 |
Bachelor's degree | 49 | 50 | 25 |
Postgraduate degree | 60 | 40 | 16 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Racial inequality | 93 | 6 | 12 |
Coronavirus | 95 | 4 | 21 |
Economy | 8 | 91 | 34 |
Crime and safety | 11 | 87 | 12 |
Health care
|
78 | 20 | 14 |
Region | |||
Maricopa County | 50 | 48 | 61 |
Pima County | 59 | 40 | 15 |
Rest of state | 41 | 57 | 24 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 56 | 42 | 46 |
Suburban | 45 | 55 | 46 |
Rural | 41 | 55 | 9 |
Family's financial situation today | |||
Better than four years ago | 15 | 83 | 44 |
Worse than four years ago | 91 | 8 | 15 |
About the same | 71 | 27 | 41 |
Associated Press
The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 3,772 likely voters in Arizona, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[73]
2020 presidential election in Arizona by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[73] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | Jorgensen | % of
total vote |
Total vote | 49.36 | 49.06 | 1.52 | 100 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 92 | 8 | <1 | 28 |
Moderates
|
59 | 37 | 3 | 33 |
Conservatives | 10 | 89 | 1 | 39 |
Party | ||||
Democrats or lean Democrat | 96 | 3 | 1 | 43 |
Republicans or lean Republican | 9 | 90 | 1 | 51 |
Independents
|
58 | 33 | 8 | 6 |
Type of vote | ||||
Election Day | 33 | 66 | 1 | 15 |
Early in-person | 38 | 61 | 1 | 20 |
56 | 42 | 2 | 66 | |
Vote in 2016 | ||||
Hillary Clinton | 95 | 5 | <1 | 36 |
Donald Trump | 7 | 92 | 1 | 43 |
Someone else | 58 | 27 | 14 | 6 |
Did not vote | 57 | 41 | 1 | 15 |
Gender | ||||
Men | 46 | 52 | 2 | 48 |
Women | 52 | 47 | 1 | 52 |
Race/ethnicity | ||||
White
|
45 | 53 | 2 | 71 |
Black
|
– | – | – | 4 |
Latino | 59 | 40 | 1 | 8 |
Other | 49 | 49 | 2 | 8 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 63 | 33 | 4 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 55 | 43 | 2 | 6 |
30–39 years old | 56 | 43 | 1 | 14 |
40–49 years old | 49 | 48 | 2 | 14 |
50–64 years old | 45 | 54 | 1 | 29 |
65 and older | 46 | 53 | 1 | 30 |
Religion | ||||
Protestant | 35 | 64 | 1 | 21 |
Catholic | 51 | 48 | 1 | 22 |
Mormon | 18 | 80 | 2 | 4 |
Other Christian | 33 | 66 | 1 | 17 |
Jewish | 68 | 30 | 2 | 3 |
Muslim | – | – | – | 1 |
Something else | 58 | 38 | 3 | 7 |
None | 71 | 27 | 2 | 26 |
Marital status | ||||
Single or never married | 59 | 40 | 1 | 21 |
Married | 43 | 55 | 2 | 58 |
Separated | – | – | – | <1 |
Divorced | 50 | 49 | 1 | 15 |
Widowed | – | – | – | 6 |
Sexual orientation | ||||
LGBT | 70 | 27 | 2 | 8 |
Heterosexual | 45 | 53 | 1 | 92 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 49 | 50 | 1 | 24 |
Some college education or associate degree | 47 | 51 | 2 | 41 |
College graduate | 52 | 46 | 1 | 23 |
Postgraduate degree | 54 | 45 | 1 | 13 |
Total household income (2019) | ||||
Under $25,000 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 13 |
$25,000–$49,999 | 52 | 46 | 1 | 25 |
$50,000–$74,999 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 21 |
$75,000–$99,999 | 47 | 52 | 1 | 17 |
Over $100,000 | 44 | 53 | 2 | 24 |
Union households | ||||
Yes | 52 | 46 | 1 | 10 |
No | 49 | 50 | 1 | 90 |
Veteran households | ||||
Veteran, self | 48 | 51 | 1 | 14 |
Veteran household | 46 | 54 | <1 | 19 |
No | 53 | 45 | 2 | 67 |
Issue regarded as most important | ||||
Economy and jobs | 14 | 84 | 2 | 31 |
Healthcare | 64 | 34 | 2 | 8 |
Immigration | 13 | 85 | 2 | 5 |
Abortion | – | – | – | 2 |
Law enforcement | 17 | 82 | 1 | 5 |
Climate change | 86 | 10 | 3 | 5 |
Foreign policy | – | – | – | 1 |
COVID-19 pandemic | 76 | 23 | 1 | 39 |
Racism | 85 | 15 | <1 | 5 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 59 | 40 | 1 | 26 |
Suburban | 48 | 51 | 1 | 50 |
Small town | 41 | 58 | 1 | 13 |
Rural | 43 | 55 | 2 | 10 |
Family's financial situation today | ||||
Getting ahead | 23 | 77 | <1 | 13 |
Holding steady | 50 | 47 | 2 | 70 |
Falling behind | 64 | 33 | 2 | 17 |
Aftermath
Controversies
Early call
Fox News called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 p.m. EST on November 3, election day, with 73% of projected vote counted.[74] The Associated Press did so at 2:51 a.m. EST on November 4.[75][76] Fox News received push-back from the Trump campaign as no other network called Arizona on election night.[77][78][79][80] Fox News decision desk director Arnon Mishkin defended the Arizona call at 12:30 a.m., saying that Fox News was "four standard deviations from being wrong"[77] and that Trump was "not going to be able to take over and win enough votes to eliminate that seven-point lead that [Biden] has".[81] Biden and other Democratic candidates began election night with a wide lead in the state, and at the time Fox News called Arizona for Biden, he led by 210,259 votes (53.9% to 44.9%).[82] The reporting in Arizona was the reverse of a 'red mirage' and 'blue shift' effect seen nationwide, where the counting of election day votes before early and absentee votes gave Republicans across the country an early lead. Votes cast on election day typically leaned heavily Republican while those cast early and absentee ballots leaned heavily Democratic, partially due to the skepticism of mail-in voting spread mostly by Trump and fellow Republicans.[83] However, Arizona and several other Sun Belt states had the opposite effect. Early votes and absentee votes cast before the election were pre-counted and released shortly after 10:00 p.m. EST, when polls closed. Election day votes, as well as a few absentee votes, were released on election night and trickled in throughout the rest of the week. FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that close races "might have to wait for those last few ballots before knowing who won".[84] Despite Biden's lead dropping throughout the week, it became clear that Trump's margin among election day votes would not be enough to overtake Biden's lead: Trump needed 59% of the outstanding vote to win,[85][86] but continuously won around only 53% of the votes released in several ballot dumps after election day.[87]
On November 11, Decision Desk HQ, along with several other outlets, projected that Biden would carry the state.[88] On November 12, ABC News, NBC News, CNN and The New York Times all projected Biden to carry the state shortly after 11:00 p.m. Eastern.[89][90][91]
On November 24, 2020, Governor Doug Ducey acknowledged that Biden won the state.[92]
Objection
On January 6, as a
On January 24, 2021, the Arizona GOP voted to censure Cindy McCain, Jeff Flake, and Doug Ducey, all of whom vehemently denied conspiracy theories from the Trump campaign arguing that the results in Arizona were fraudulent and invalid.[97][98] Between January 6 and January 20, the Arizona Secretary of State office reported that over 8,000 Republicans changed their party registration to Democrat, Libertarian, or unaffiliated, which was attributed to said actions by Trump and the Arizona GOP.[99][100]