2023 Chinese balloon incident
diplomatic incident | |
Cause | High-altitude Chinese balloon entering foreign airspace |
---|---|
Motive | force majeure due to westerlies or reconnaissance (allegedly) |
Participants | |
Outcome | Balloon downed by an AIM-9 Sidewinder fired by a U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor; debris recovered[1] |
From January 28 to February 4, 2023, a
When the object was first spotted, the
The incident increased
Three other high-altitude objects, over Northern Alaska (February 10),[16] Yukon (February 11),[17] and Lake Huron (February 11–12) respectively, were detected and subsequently shot down; a later assessment said they had no relation to China.[18][19]
Background
History and development of reconnaissance balloons
Balloons have been valued for their ability to observe the battlefield and direct artillery. Their usage peaked during World War I, after which they were increasingly replaced by airplanes.[20] During the Cold War, the United States sent hundreds of high-altitude balloons, ostensibly for "meteorological survey" under Project Genetrix, over China and other Eastern Bloc countries to gain intelligence on their nuclear capabilities, drawing their protests.[21][22]
Although mostly supplanted by
Past Chinese balloons and unidentified objects
Suspected Chinese surveillance balloons have been detected in
Other pre-2023 incursions have remained unexplained and are classified by U.S. authorities as
The
U.S.–China tensions
The 2023 balloon incident occurred while U.S.–China relations were at their worst in decades,[43] following suspected incidents of Chinese espionage[b] and amid increasing strategic competition in military and economic sectors.[51] In 2022, the United States, along with some of its allies, imposed stringent export controls on "foundational technologies", such as semiconductor microprocessors, to China in order to hamper the latter's development of advanced technology and military tools.[43] The US has also sought to maintain critical supply chains independent from China.[43]
Incident
Balloon
Size, propulsion, and payload
The balloon carried an underslung payload described as a "technology bay" estimated to be the size of "two or three school buses"
The Chinese balloon was a superpressure balloon similar to earlier NASA designs,[55] where the volume of the balloon is kept relatively constant in the face of changes in ambient pressure outside the balloon, and the temperature of the contained lifting gas. This allows better altitude control and much longer endurance compared to the more common variable-volume balloon design.
The U.S. Department of Defense said the balloon did not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground while it remained in the air, and that shooting it down over water would be safer and increased the opportunity to study the wreckage for intelligence purposes.[59][60][61]
Citing a PLA procurement portal, a U.S. official said that the balloon was manufactured by a civilian Chinese defense contractor.[62]
Signals intelligence capabilities
Experts noted that weather balloons typically are about 20 feet (6 m) wide, less than a quarter of the balloon's diameter.[63][9] Those interviewed by BBC News said it was unusual for weather balloons to last as long as the one involved in the incident and that the balloon "might have been more sophisticated than China claims".[64]
Images from U-2 flybys and forensic analysis of the payload showed
U.S. authorities did not name the manufacturer of the balloon but said with high confidence that the entity has "direct commercial ties" to the People's Liberation Army. They cited this as an example of military-civil fusion, where China encourages competition from and technology exchange with its private sector.[43]
Detection
High-altitude balloons are extremely difficult to detect. A 2005 study by the U.S. Air Force's
The balloon's first reported sighting was on February 1, 2023, when civilians on a commercial airliner spotted it.
American defense officials considered shooting the balloon down but initially decided not to due to the risk of debris injuring civilians on the ground.[77] A meeting was convened between Secretary of Defense Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, NORTHCOM/NORAD Commander General VanHerck, and other military commanders.[75] Biden was advised by officials not to shoot it down because debris could threaten civilians or cause property damage.[75]
Flight path
According to U.S. intelligence and retrospective analysis of satellite images, the balloon was tracked near Hainan island of China as early as January 15.[11][55][d] It was able to change its altitude before entering the Pacific Ocean, where officials believe it was blown off-course. Retired NASA engineer Rodger Farley told the New York Times that winter winds may vary too little in direction to allow for course corrections.[55]
The balloon entered U.S. airspace above the
According to some U.S. officials, China attempted to speed up the balloon, after its presence became known to the public, in order for it to exit U.S. airspace more quickly.
U.S. monitoring and counterintelligence
During the incident, a U.S. defense official stated that the balloon had "limited additive value from an intelligence collection perspective". Nonetheless, the Pentagon took steps to protect its assets from leaking sensitive information to the balloon.
Two
A U.S. government official said that at least two
In early April, unnamed U.S. officials told NBC that the balloon was able to gather electronic intelligence from the military sites it overflew and transmit it back to China.[91] The U.S. Department of Defense could not confirm the report and reiterated that any information gathered would have "limited additive value".[81]
Downing
On February 4, the balloon had drifted over the
The balloon was shot down over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, by an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile fired from a U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor that had departed from Langley Air Force Base; the downing occurred at 2:39 p.m. eastern time.[98][99][100][101] The F-22 fired the missile at an altitude of 58,000 feet (18,000 m), which struck the balloon at an altitude of 60,000–65,000 feet (18–20 km). The balloon splashed down within U.S. territorial waters 6 nautical miles (11 km) off the coastline, where the water was 47 feet (14 m) deep. The downing was the first recorded by an F-22 aircraft, the first of an aircraft over U.S. territory since World War II, and is speculated to be the highest altitude air-to-air kill in recorded history.[102]
Debris recovery
Debris from the balloon was dispersed over an area of 2.25 square kilometres (0.87 sq mi),
On February 6, some of the downed payload was sent to the FBI Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia, for forensic analysis by the Bureau's Operational Technology Division.[1][111] Possible balloon debris was spotted later on the South Carolina coast, where police were asking residents to report other sightings.[112] China said it wanted the wreckage returned,[113][114] but the U.S. said it had no plans to do so.[1]
By February 13, the U.S. had recovered a significant portion of the balloon's payload, including sensors, electronics, and structural sections. The entire payload measured 30 feet (9.1 m), weighed more than 2,000 pounds (910 kg) by estimates, and contained all of the craft's equipment and antennas.[41][115][116] Underwater recovery efforts were suspended on February 14 due to bad weather. On February 17, the U.S. military said that recovery operations have concluded for the balloon after the final debris was located and retrieved.[117]
Legality of airspace and downing
The United States asserts sovereignty of the airspace above its territories. Like that of other countries, this right, up to the ill-defined boundary of space, is recognized by the
Before the revelation by the United States that the balloon was likely blown off course, analysts concluded that shooting it down was legal under U.S. domestic law.[119][120][121] Its destruction under international law is murkier due to potential intervening factors such as force majeure, but characterizing it as an act of reprisal would help firm up that position.[122] Although China protested the shootdown, Julian Ku, professor of law at Hofstra University, said that the wording of China's statement reflects that its Ministry of Foreign Affairs "does not believe downing the balloon is a clear legal violation."[123]
Response and reactions
United States
Secretary of State Blinken postponed a scheduled diplomatic trip to China in response, which would have been the first such visit since 2018.[7][13][14] The White House did not want to announce the balloon's incursion to protect Blinken's visit, but press and social media interest made Pentagon officials comment.[73]
In response to questions regarding the situation, on February 4, Biden said, "We're going to take care of it".[124] Later that day, U.S. officials disclosed that three days earlier he had granted permission to down the balloon.[34]
Pentagon officials stated that there was no earlier opportunity to shoot down over water, rebutting Trump and other Republicans who criticized the Biden administration for not shooting down the balloon earlier.[61][125] Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer added: "The bottom line here is that shooting down the balloon over water wasn't just the safest option, but it was the one that maximized our intel gain."[126]
External map | |
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Chinese balloon base in Hainan[127][128] |
On February 6,
The
Trump called reports of intrusions during his administration "fake disinformation";[135] and his ex-top national security officials said they were unaware of any balloon incursions during their tenure.[136] Biden administration National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that improved airspace surveillance ordered by Biden after he took office had detected the previous incursions and "enhanced our capacity to be able to detect things that the Trump administration was unable to detect".[137]
On February 9, Biden stated that the suspected Chinese spy balloon was "not a major breach", and claimed that the incident was unintentional and that it was embarrassing the Chinese authorities.[138]
"It's not a major breach. Look, the total amount of intelligence gathering that's going on by every country around the world is overwhelming. China has some legitimate difficulties unrelated to the United States. And I think one of the things that balloon caused was not so much that it got shot down, but I don't think the leadership knew where it was, what was in it, and what was going on."-US President Joe Biden[139]
On February 10, the U.S. accused six Chinese companies of supporting the country's military and balloon surveillance program and added them to the
On February 14, intelligence officials began to explore the possibility that the balloon had not been intended to penetrate U.S. airspace and transit the continental United States but that Chinese authorities had instead sought to engage in more typical surveillance activities near Guam before the balloon potentially became blown off course. These discussions suggested that the international incident caused by the balloon's cross-continental transit may have been partly the result of an accident.[144][145]
On February 16, President Biden gave his first formal remarks on the incident saying, "We're not looking for a new Cold War, but I make no apologies, we will compete and we will responsibly manage that competition so that it doesn't veer into conflict." He further directed his team to develop "sharper rules on how to address these unidentified objects in the future so that the government can distinguish between those that are likely to pose safety and security risks that necessitate action and those that do not."[146]
In March, senators Mark Kelly and Ted Budd introduced legislation to mandate tracking of high-altitude balloons.[147]
At a June fundraising event, Biden compared his Chinese counterpart to a dictator and said that Xi was upset about not knowing the location of the balloon, which carried "two box cars" of spy equipment.[148]
This incident increased attention on the controversy surrounding Chinese purchases of farmland in the US.[149] Further restrictions on these transactions may be imposed.[149]
Canada
Canadian officials and Global Affairs Canada summoned the Chinese Ambassador to Canada, Cong Peiwu, to Ottawa while the Department of National Defence announced it was monitoring the situation alongside the United States through NORAD.[15][150] A statement from the Canadian Armed Forces said there was no threat to Canadians, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly would remain in contact with Blinken.[151]
China
On February 3, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mao Ning said: "It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course."[14] She said China regretted the unintentional incident, citing force majeure.[152] On February 6, Mao said that the U.S. "hyped up the incident on purpose and even used force to attack", and called the shoot down "an unacceptable and irresponsible action".[153]
After the downing on February 5, Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng said he had filed a formal complaint with the U.S. Embassy in response to the incident. Xie accused the United States of indiscriminately using force against the civilian airship that was about to leave U.S. airspace in violation of "the spirit of international law and international practice" and said that the Chinese government reserved the right to "take further necessary responses".[34][153] On February 6, a Chinese diplomat said in an interview with French news network LCI that the United States should return the recovered balloon debris to China.[154]
On February 13, Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that U.S. high-altitude balloons had "illegally crossed China's airspace" more than ten times since 2022. According to CNN, he did not offer evidence. Wang also complained about U.S. reconnaissance against China and wiretapping efforts around the world.[155] U.S. National Security spokesperson John Kirby said "there is no U.S. surveillance craft in China's airspace" but declined to specify whether his denial covered disputed airspace claimed by China.[156] On February 14, Wang elaborated by saying that since 2022, circumnavigation balloons launched from U.S. soil flew over China and other countries illegally more than ten times.[157]
On February 14, Minister of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman
NATO
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said the balloon "confirms a pattern of Chinese behavior where we see that China has invested heavily in new capabilities, including different types of surveillance and intelligence platforms", and that it presents security challenges for the members of the alliance.[159]
Australia
Amidst the ongoing Australia–China trade war, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong said: "I believe the US has managed this as carefully as possible. They brought the balloon down over their own territorial waters."[160][161][162]
Japan
Japan said that it strongly suspected Chinese surveillance balloons had entered its territory on at least three occasions and told China that violations of its airspace by uncrewed surveillance balloons were absolutely unacceptable.[163][164]
Singapore
The Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, Vivian Balakrishnan, said that it was a "pity" that Blinken's visit to China was postponed. He added regarding the balloon that "hopefully both sides exercise sufficient self-restraint and reduce the prospects of such incidents".[165]
United Kingdom
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated on February 13 that the United Kingdom's government would do "whatever it takes" to defend the country from observation balloons. He added that the Royal Air Force had alerted Typhoon jets to stand-by.[166] Furthermore, ex-MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger, said that due to the systematic nature of China's surveillance program, the UK must "wake up" to China's threat to global security.[167]
Venezuela
Venezuela's foreign ministry condemned the United States for shooting down what they stated was an unmanned civilian aircraft which posed no threat.[168][169]
Media reactions
Analysis
Michael Clarke, a British defense analyst, claimed that China wanted the balloon "to be noticed". He described the incident as a "stunt gone wrong", giving the United States an opportunity to "milk this".[170] Believing China to be "completely in the wrong", Clarke surmised that the fly-over was their way of retaliating for a February 2 agreement between the United States and the Philippines that would grant four more US military bases there in response to China's nine dash line claims.[170][171]
John Blaxland, a professor of international security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University, suggested that China likely expected the balloon to be detected and being detected was the goal. He believes that the balloon was launched to embarrass the US, with intelligence gathering being a secondary objective.[172] Baxland also said that the balloon could be designed to test the resolve of Washington as well as gather information about American detection capabilities and reaction.[173]
On the shooting of the balloon, Christopher Twomey, a security scholar, said that any Chinese response would be restrained and that China would want to "sweep this under the rug" and emphasize senior-level visits within months.[174]
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that "we collect intelligence on China from bases all around their east coast, in Japan, Guam and Australia. We fly P-8 [spy plane] flights on a daily basis and the Chinese can't do that." Surveillance ballons might have been a creative way to collect information and to offer China some insights into US capabilities and possibly vulnerabilities.[175]
Gregory Falco, an aerospace security expert at the Johns Hopkins University, said that the balloon's large solar panels and antenna indicated surveillance technology.[176] According to Falco, the first balloon and subsequent UFOs downed by the United States are part of a hybrid communications architecture linking with Chinese satellites.[177][178] He said that surveillance by balloon is conducted by many nations and detected "all the time" without eliciting a big response. After the balloon was seen by the public, in part because of its large size, political pressure prompted the Biden administration to make a show of force, even though trying to lower the objects' altitude more slowly might have preserved more of their payload compared with destroying them using advanced missiles.[178]
Satire
The incident was
Other high-altitude objects in February 2023
Another balloon was detected flying over Latin America.
On February 10,
On February 11, on previous orders of Canadian Prime Minister
On February 12, the US military shot down a fourth unidentified object over Lake Huron, within the maritime territory of Michigan.[193][194]
On February 14, the US government announced that the latter three high-altitude objects shot down over the North America were likely private entities with no relations to China. Further analysis and debris collections were underway.[18] The four AIM-9X missiles expended for shooting down the three objects cost at least $1.5 million.[195]
On February 17, the US and Canada suspended their search for the debris from the downed objects and the missile that missed.[196][197]
Additional assessments of the balloon
Following the April
In June, preliminary investigation by the U.S. reported the presence of reconnaissance equipment on board the balloon downed in February. There were conflicting reports on whether it had collected any intelligence during its flight.[198][199] It does not appear to have sent anything back to China. The Wall Street Journal said the balloon carried off-the-shelf U.S. gear.[4] Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick S. Ryder did not confirm that information but said that Chinese drones in the past have utilized off-the-shelf U.S. equipment.[4] He also said that mitigation efforts "contributed" to the balloon not collecting any intelligence while transiting or overflying the United States.[200]
On September 17, 2023, in an interview with CBS news, General Mark Milley, the retiring 20th US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated “I would say it was a spy balloon that we know with high degree of certainty got no intelligence, and didn't transmit any intelligence back to China." Technical experts had also found that the balloon's sensors had never been activated while it was travelling over the Continental United States. The general also touched on a leading theory that the reason that it was flying over the United States, was probably because it was blown off-track, where the balloon had been heading towards Hawaii however winds at 60,000 feet simply came into the equation. Milley said, "those winds are very high.. the particular motor on that aircraft can't go against those winds at that altitude."[201][202]
On December 28, 2023, it was determined that the balloon utilized an undisclosed American service provider to provide data back to Beijing.[203]
See also
- 1960 U-2 incident
- Balloon buster
- Fu-Go balloon bomb
- Hainan Island incident
- Geostationary balloon satellite
Notes
- ^ Guam and Hawaii are home to key U.S. military installations.[10]
- ^ The New York Times article cites the Office of Personnel Management data breach, the Anthem medical data breach, and a Marriott International data breach as examples.
- ^ Sources citing the defense official who gave the estimate did not identify what size of a bus was referenced. Lengths of U.S. school buses vary but are limited to 45 feet (14 m) per specifications defined by the National Congress on School Transportation.[52]
- ^ Reports of its detection near Hainan came out after the balloon was shot down.[79]
This article incorporates public domain material from Bart Elias. Monitoring the Sovereign Skies. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved March 2, 2022.
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I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it
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I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it
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