2023 Dutch Senate election

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2023 Dutch Senate election
Netherlands
← 2019 30 May 2023 2027 →
All 75 seats in the Senate
38 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader % Seats +/–
BBB Ilona Lagas 20.66 16 New
VVD Edith Schippers 12.40 10 −2
GL[a] Paul Rosenmöller 9.67 7 −1
PvdA[a] Mei Li Vos 8.86 7 +1
CDA Theo Bovens 7.34 6 −3
D66 Paul van Meenen 6.23 5 −2
PVV Marjolein Faber 6.10 4 −1
PvdD Niko Koffeman 4.78 3 0
JA21 Annabel Nanninga 4.63 3 New
SP Tiny Kox 4.14 3 −1
CU Tineke Huizinga 3.68 3 −1
FvD Johan Dessing 2.72 2 −10
Volt Gaby Perin-Gopie 2.70 2 New
SGP Peter Schalk 2.48 2 0
50+ Martin van Rooijen 1.82 1 −1
OPNL Auke van der Goot 1.78 1 0
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
President of the Senate before President of the Senate after
Jan Anthonie Bruijn
VVD		 Jan Anthonie Bruijn
VVD

An election to the Dutch Senate was held on 30 May 2023.[2] The 75 members of the Senate were elected by members of the provincial councils and electoral colleges elected two months earlier in provincial and electoral college elections.

The four coalition parties saw their combined seat count decrease from 32 to 24. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which had come first in the provincial elections, entered the Senate with 16 seats. The Labour Party and GroenLinks, which intend to form a joint parliamentary group, won a combined 14 seats.

Background

Since 2017, the Netherlands has had coalition governments consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). After the 2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as the Labour Party (PvdA), GroenLinks and JA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation.[3]

In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This makes the election an important step for the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance.[4]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate.[5] The government is also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation[6] and its bill for the distribution of asylum seekers.[7]

The government is therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties are divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll shows that a majority of D66 voters wants the government to cooperate with GroenLinks–PvdA, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would prefer for the government to cooperate with BBB.[8]

Electoral system

Main article: Elections in the Netherlands

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the

special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba[9][10] and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections
.

The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation.[11]

Electors

Party or alliance Provincial councils Electoral colleges Total +/−
DR FL
FR
 GE GR LI NB NH OV UT ZE ZH NI BO SA SE
Farmer–Citizen Movement 17 10 14 14 12 10 11 8 17 7 9 8 — — — — 137 New
GL–PvdA GroenLinks[b] 2 3 3 5 5 4 5 7 4 7 3 6 5 — — — 59 −2
Labour Party[b] 4 3 5 5 5 3 4 7 3 3 3 4 2 — — — 51 −2
Total 6 6 8 10 10 7 9 14 7 10 6 10 7 0 0 0 110 −4
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 4 3 6 2 5 9 8 4 6 4 8 4 — — — 67 −13
Christian Democratic Appeal 3 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 4 4 5 4 1 — — 1 45 −27
Democrats 66 1 2 1 3 2 3 4 4 2 5 1 4 4 — — — 36 −5
Party for Freedom 2 3 2 2 2 6 4 3 2 2 2 4 — — — — 34 −6
Party for the Animals 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 4 1 3 1 3 2 — — — 27 +7
JA21 1 2 1 2 — 2 2 3 2 2 1 4 2 — — — 24 New
Socialist Party 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 — — — 24 −11
Christian Union[c] 2 2 2 3 3 — 1 1 3 3 1 2 — — — — 23 −9
Forum for Democracy 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 — — — 17 −69
Reformed Political Party — 2 — 3 — — — — 2 2 5 2 — — — — 16 +2
OPNL Frisian National Party — — 4 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 4 0
Groninger Belang — — — — 3 — — — — — — — — — — — 3 0
Lokaal Brabant — — — — — — 2 — — — — — — — — — 2 +1
Lokaal Limburg — — — — — 2 — — — — — — — — — — 2 0
Party for Zeeland — — — — — — — — — — 2 — — — — — 2 0
Party for the North — — — — 1 — — — — — — — — — — — 1 −1
Provinciaal Belang Fryslân — — 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 +1
Sterk Lokaal Drenthe 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 0
Sterk Lokaal Flevoland — 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 New
Total 1 1 5 0 4 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 17 +2
Volt Netherlands 1 — — 2 1 — 1 2 1 2 — 1 2 — — — 13 New
50PLUS — 1 — 1 — 1 1 2 — 1 — 1 — — — — 8 −9
Windward Islands People's Movement — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 5 — 5 +1
Democratic Party of Sint Eustatius — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 4 4 −1
Bonaire Democratic Party — — — — — — — — — — — — — 3 — — 3 0
Bonaire Patriotic Union — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2 — — 2 0
Bonaire People's Movement — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2 — — 2 −2
Independent Jaap Kos — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 — — 1 New
Movement 21 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 — — 1 New
DENK
 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 0 −4
Saba Labour Party — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 0 −1
Total 43 41 43 55 43 47 55 55 47 49 39 55 25 9 5 5 616 +27
Weight per vote[12] 117 109 153 388 139 240 478 537 252 283 100 692 20 27 4 7
Total weighted votes 5,031 4,469 6,579 21,340 5,977 11,280 26,290 29,535 11,844 13,867 3,900 38,060 500 243 20 35 178,970 +5,295

Participating parties

The following parties were due to participate in the 2023 Senate election:[13]

List Party Lead candidate 2019 result
1 Forum for Democracy FvD Johan Dessing 15.87% (12 seats)
2 People's Party for Freedom and Democracy VVD Edith Schippers 15.11% (12 seats)
3 Christian Democratic Appeal CDA Theo Bovens 11.41% (9 seats)
4 GroenLinks[a] GL Paul Rosenmöller 11.18% (8 seats)
5 Democrats 66 D66 Paul van Meenen 8.75% (7 seats)
6 Labour Party[a] PvdA Mei Li Vos 8.62% (6 seats)
7 Party for Freedom PVV Marjolein Faber 6.53% (5 seats)
8 Socialist Party SP Tiny Kox 5.88% (4 seats)
9 Christian Union CU Tineke Huizinga 5.03% (4 seats)
10 Party for the Animals PvdD Niko Koffeman 3.78% (3 seats)
11 50PLUS 50+ Martin van Rooijen 3.03% (2 seats)
12 Reformed Political Party SGP Peter Schalk 2.60% (2 seats)
13 Independent Politics Netherlands OPNL Auke van der Goot 1.31% (1 seat)
14 JA21 JA21 Annabel Nanninga —
15 Farmer–Citizen Movement BBB Ilona Lagas —
16 Volt Netherlands VOLT Gaby Perin-Gopie —

Seat projections

The table and graphs below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based on opinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based on exit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection by ANP is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections.[14]

All coalition parties (VVD, D66, CDA and CU) are expected to lose seats. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) is projected to become the largest party in the Senate with 17 seats. The alliance of PvdA and GroenLinks is expected to gain one seat, while Forum for Democracy is projected to drop from 12 down to 2 seats.

Projections in November 2022 predicted a drop to just 23 seats for the coalition, then rose to a peak of 28 in late February 2023, followed by a drop down to 22 after the provincial elections; 16 seats short of a majority in the Senate (38 seats needed). A majority could be reached with support from BBB. The projected 15 seats of the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance will be insufficient to reach a majority, and the support of at least one other opposition party would be required.

Seat projections for the 2023 Senate election
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size BBB GL PvdA VVD CDA D66 PVV PvdD SP JA21 FvD CU 50+ SGP OPNL Volt
Denk
 Others Rutte IV
2023 election[15] 30 May 2023 N/A 16 7 7 10 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 0 24 −14
ANP 19 Mar 2023 N/A[d] 17 8 7 10 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 22 −16
Ipsos 15 Mar 2023 N/A[e] 15 8 7 10 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 24 −14
Ipsos 10–14 Mar 2023 2,002 13 8 6 12 5 4 8 4 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 23 −15
Peil.nl 10–11 Mar 2023 3,000+ 12 14 12 4 7 8 4 3 3 2 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 26 −12
I&O 2–6 Mar 2023 8,196 13 14 10 3 5 7 5 4 5 2 2 0 2 1 2 0 0 20 −18
Peil.nl 3–4 Mar 2023 3,000+ 10 14 12 5 7 8 3 4 3 3 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 27 −11
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 5,291 9 8 5 15 5 6 9 4 5 3 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 28 −10
Peil.nl 17–18 Feb 2023 3,000+ 8 13 13 5 6 9 4 4 5 2 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 27 −11
Ipsos 10–13 Feb 2023 1,961 8 6 5 15 5 7 9 4 4 3 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 0 29 −9
Peil.nl 27–28 Jan 2023 3,000+ 7 13 12 4 6 9 4 3 6 3 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 25 −13
Peil.nl 11–12 Nov 2022 3,000+ 6 13 11 3 6 10 4 4 7 2 3 — — — — — 6 23 −15
2019 election 27 May 2019 N/A — 8 6 12 9 7 5 3 4 — 12 4 2 2 1 — 0 0 32 −6

Results

As projected, the Farmer–Citizen Movement became the largest party, winning 16 seats (as opposed to the projected 17). Strategic voting of D66 and VVD electors resulted in extra seats for their coalition partners CDA and CU.[16] Moreover, compared to the projections, GroenLinks lost one seat to Volt as GroenLinks elector Debora Fernald voted for Volt.[17]

With the coalition parties winning 24 seats in the Senate, an additional 14 opposition votes are necessary for a 38 vote majority. Support from either BBB (16) or GroenLinks–PvdA (14) suffices.[18]

Party Unweighted vote Weighted vote Seats
Votes Deviation % Votes % ±pp Quotient Remainder Total +/−
Farmer–Citizen Movement 137 ±0 22.24 36,976 20.66 New 15 1 16 New
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 67 ±0 10.88 22,194 12.40 −2.71 9 1 10 −2
GroenLinks 55 −4 8.93 17,313 9.67 −1.51 7 0 7 −1
Labour Party 68 +17 11.04 15,862 8.86 +0.24 6 1 7 +1
Christian Democratic Appeal 47 +2 7.63 13,136 7.34 −4.07 5 1 6 −3
Democrats 66 37 +1 6.01 11,144 6.23 −2.52 4 1 5 −2
Party for Freedom 34 ±0 5.52 10,922 6.10 −0.43 4 0 4 −1
Party for the Animals 27 ±0 4.38 8,560 4.78 +1.00 3 0 3 0
JA21 24 ±0 3.90 8,289 4.63 New 3 0 3 New
Socialist Party 24 ±0 3.90 7,404 4.14 −1.74 3 0 3 −1
Christian Union 23 ±0 3.73 6,595 3.68 −1.35 2 1 3 −1
Forum for Democracy 17 ±0 2.76 4,866 2.72 −13.15 2 0 2 −10
Volt 14 +1 2.27 4,826 2.70 New 2 0 2 New
Reformed Political Party 17 +1 2.76 4,436 2.48 −0.12 1 1 2 0
50PLUS 8 ±0 1.30 3,264 1.82 −1.21 1 0 1 −1
Independent Politics Netherlands 17 ±0 2.76 3,183 1.78 +0.47 1 0 1 0
Total 616 +18 100.00 178,970 100.00 — 68 7 75 0
Source: Kiesraad

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d GroenLinks and the Labour Party took part in the election with separate lists, but intend to form a joint Senate group.[1]
  2. ^ a b Includes 3 out of 6 members of the GroenLinks–PvdA group in the Provincial Council of Zeeland.
  3. ChristenUnie–SGP group in the Provincial Council of North Brabant
    .
  4. ^ Based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections, with 99% of votes counted.
  5. ^ Based on exit polls of the provincial elections.

References

  1. ^ "PvdA en GroenLinks presenteren lijsten Eerste Kamer: 'gezamenlijk de grootste'". GroenLinks (in Dutch). 1 December 2022. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  2. ^ "Eerste Kamerverkiezingen 2023". Parlement.com (in Dutch). Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  3. ^ "Migratie, stikstof en andere kwesties maken van 2023 een spannend politiek jaar". NOS (in Dutch). 21 January 2023. Retrieved 30 March 2023.
  4. ^ "Grote stap voor PvdA, GroenLinks: verder samen in Eerste Kamer". NOS (in Dutch). 11 June 2022. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
  5. ^ "Oppositiepartijen tegen stikstofwet van kabinet". NOS (in Dutch). 5 March 2023. Retrieved 30 March 2023.
  6. ^ "Links stemt tegen klimaatplannen kabinet als die niet ambitieuzer worden". NOS (in Dutch). 7 March 2023. Retrieved 30 March 2023.
  7. ^ "Spreidingswet naar Tweede Kamer, maar nieuwe Eerste Kamer lijkt serieuzer obstakel". NOS (in Dutch). 24 March 2023. Retrieved 30 March 2023.
  8. ^ "Coalitiekiezers verdeeld na verkiezingen: VVD en CDA-stemmers willen samenwerken met BBB, die van D66 met GL/PvdA". EenVandaag (in Dutch). 16 March 2023. Retrieved 30 March 2023.
  9. ^ "Kiesrecht voor Eerste Kamer voor Caribisch Nederland". Rijksoverheid (in Dutch). Retrieved 5 October 2018.
  10. ^ "Electoral colleges for the Senate". Kiesraad. 24 January 2019. Retrieved 28 February 2019.
  11. ^ "Eerste Kamer". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 20 April 2016. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
  12. ^ "Stemwaarden Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2023 vastgesteld". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 4 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
  13. ^ "Kandidatenlijsten Eerste Kamerverkiezing vastgesteld". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 8 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
  14. ^ "BBB klimt in jongste prognose naar 17 zetels, D66 zakt naar 5 zetels". NOS (in Dutch). 19 March 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  15. ^ "Kiesraad stelt uitslag verkiezingen Eerste Kamer vast". Eerste Kamer der Staten-Generaal (in Dutch). 1 June 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  16. ^ "Tumult in fracties over strategisch stemmen". Binnenlands Bestuur (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved 4 June 2023.
  17. ^ "GroenLinks-Statenlid Debora Fernald stemde op Volt, uit fractie gezet". NOS (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  18. ^ "Nieuwe Eerste Kamer: coalitie heeft ook met PvdA/GL meerderheid, BBB grootste". NOS (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
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