2024 European Parliament election

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2024 European Parliament election
← 2019 6–9 June 2024 2029 →
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elected members →
All 720 seats to the European Parliament
361 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Official Portrait of Ursula von der Leyen (cropped).jpg
Nicolas Schmit - 2023 (cropped).jpg
Valerie3.jpg
Leader Ursula von der Leyen Nicolas Schmit Valérie Hayer
Alliance EPP Group S&D Renew Europe
Leader's seat Germany[a] Luxembourg[a] France
Last election 187 seats, 21.0% 148 seats, 18.5% 97 seats, 13.0%
 
BDK Karlsruhe Nov 2023 Terry Reintke 2 cropped.jpg
Speech of the Lead Candidates (47941849351).jpg
Anders_Vistisen_portrait_2023_(3).jpg
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51987066887.jpg
Nicola Procaccini, June 2023.jpg
Leader Terry Reintke
Bas Eickhout 		Anders Vistisen Ryszard Legutko
Nicola Procaccini
Alliance Greens/EFA ID ECR
Leader's seat Germany
Netherlands 		Denmark Poland
Southern Italy
Last election 67 seats, 11.7% 76 seats, 10.8% 62 seats, 8.2%
 
Augsburger Parteitag - Walter Baier 2.jpg
Leader Walter Baier [de]
Alliance The Left
Leader's seat Austria[a]
Last election 40 seats, 6.5%
Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission (EPP)
EPP Group–S&D–Renew



The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024.[1] This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3] This election will also coincide with a number of other elections in the European Union.

Background

In the previous election held on 23–26 May 2019, The centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D suffered significant losses, while liberal Renew, environmentalist G/EFA and anti-EU right-wing populist ID and ECR made substantial gains. The European People's Party led by Manfred Weber as Commission President candidate won the most seats in the European Parliament. Despite this, the European Council decided after the election to nominate Ursula von der Leyen as new Commission President, and the European Parliament elected von der Leyen with 383 votes (374 votes needed). The commission was then approved by the European Parliament on 27 November 2019, receiving 461 votes.

The election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of right-wing parties in polling.

right-wing populist parties holding political power in Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (Brothers of Italy), Sweden (Sweden Democrats) and Finland (Finns Party) in 2024.[6]

As right-wing parties continue to rise in Europe, the centre-right EPP has "raised eyebrows" among some commentators for its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block,[7] which could upset the long-standing status-quo that has seen the EPP share power with the centre-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[8]

Electoral system

Elections to the European Parliament are regulated by the Treaty on European Union, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and the Act concerning the election of the members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage (the Electoral Act). The Electoral Act states that the electoral procedure is governed by the national provisions in each member state, subject to the provisions of the act.[9] Elections are conducted by direct universal suffrage by proportional representation using either a list system or single transferable vote.[10] The national electoral threshold may not exceed 5% of votes cast.[11]

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.[12] New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries.[13] After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain;[14] Germany only ratified in summer 2023.[15]

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists.[16] As of 2024, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously,[17] meaning the election will be conducted under the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats).[18] The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705 after that.[19]

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 and passed in June 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs again in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality.[20][21] The European Council will, by unanimity, take the final decision on the size of the European Parliament and each national seat quota. On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats.[22] On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision,[23] which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.[24]

Electoral system by country

Member state Seats Date Voting
age 		Compulsory
voting 		Absentee voting Min. age for
candidacy[25] 		Constituencies Legal threshold[b] Maximum threshold[c] Electoral system[26] Candidate selection[26]
Austria Austria 20(+1) 9 June[27] 16 No By post 18 01 4% ~4.8% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Belgium Belgium 22(+1) 9 June[28] 16[29] Yes[30] By post and by proxy 18 03 5% Up to 50%[d] D'Hondt Semi-open list
Bulgaria Bulgaria 17 9 June[31] 18 No — 21 01 ~5.9%[e][32] Largest remainder[f] Semi-open list
Croatia Croatia 12 9 June[33] 18 No — 18 01 5% ~7.7% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Cyprus Cyprus 06 9 June[34] 18 Yes — 21 01 1.8%[35] ~14.3% Largest remainder[f] Open list
Czech Republic Czech Republic 21 7–8 June[36] 18 No — 21 01 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Denmark Denmark 15(+1) 9 June[37] 18 No By post 18 01 — ~6.3% D'Hondt[g] Open list
Estonia Estonia 07 9 June[38] 18 No
online
 21 01 — 12.5% D'Hondt Open list
Finland Finland 15(+1) 9 June[39] 18 No By post 18 01 — ~6.3% D'Hondt Open list
France France 81(+2) 9 June[40] 18 No By proxy 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Germany Germany 96 9 June[41] 16 No By post 18 1[h] — ~1.0%
Sainte-Laguë
 Closed list
Greece Greece 21 9 June[42] 17 Yes By post 25 01 3% ~4.5% Largest remainder Open list
Hungary Hungary 21 9 June[43] 18 No By post 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Republic of Ireland Ireland 14(+1) 7 June[44] 18 No — 21 03 N/A Up to 20%[i] Single transferable vote
Italy Italy 76 8–9 June[45] 18 No — 25 05[j] 4% Largest remainder[f] Open list
Latvia Latvia 09(+1) 8 June[46] 18 No By post 21 01 5%[47] 10%
Sainte-Laguë
 Open list
Lithuania Lithuania 11 9 June[48] 18 No By post 21 01 5% ~8.3% Largest remainder[f] Open list
Luxembourg Luxembourg 06 9 June[49] 18 Yes By post 18 01 — ~14.3% D'Hondt Panachage
Malta Malta 06 8 June[50] 16 No — 18 01 N/A ~14.3% Single transferable vote
Netherlands Netherlands 31(+2) 6 June[51] 18 No By post and by proxy 18 01 ~3.2%[e][52] D'Hondt Semi-open list
Poland Poland 53(+1) 9 June[53] 18 No — 21 13[j] 5% D'Hondt Open list
Portugal Portugal 21 9 June[54] 18 No — 18 01 — ~4.5% D'Hondt Closed list
Romania Romania 33 9 June[55] 18 No — 23 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Slovakia Slovakia 15(+1) 8 June[56] 18 No — 21 01 5% ~6.3% Largest remainder[k] Semi-open list
Slovenia Slovenia 09(+1) 9 June[57] 18 No By post 18 01 — 10% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Spain Spain 61(+2) 9 June 18 No By post 18 01 — ~1.6% D'Hondt Closed list
Sweden Sweden 21 9 June[58] 18 No By post 18 01 4% ~4.5%
Modified Sainte-Laguë
 Semi-open list

Lead candidates

Spitzenkandidat system

In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats would see their lead candidate become President of the Commission.[59] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[60] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[61] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated.[62] Following the non-application of the system in 2019, some have called for the system to be revived, in the upcoming elections.[63][64][65]

The EPP,[66] PES,[67] EGP,[68] and PEL[69] announced their intensions to nominate a main candidate in 2024, while ECR and ID rejected doing so.[70]

Overview

European political parties EP Group Lead candidate(s) Election program
EPP European People's Party EPP Group Ursula von der Leyen "Our Europe"
PES Party of European Socialists S&D Nicolas Schmit "The Europe We Want"
ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party Renew Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann “Your Europe, Your Freedom"
EDP European Democratic Party Sandro Gozi "Reinventing Europe"
EGP European Green Party Greens/EFA Bas Eickhout, Terry Reintke "Courage to Change"
EFA European Free Alliance Greens/EFA, ECR Maylis Roßberg [de], Raül Romeva "A Europe for All"
ID Identity and Democracy Party ID Anders Vistisen[l] None
ECR European Conservatives and Reformists Party ECR None
PEL Party of the European Left The Left Walter Baier [de] "Our Moment"
ECPM European Christian Political Movement EPP Group, ECR Valeriu Ghilețchi "elevate. empower. engage."
European political parties not recognised by the EU EP Group Lead candidate(s) Election program
PPEU European Pirate Party Greens/EFA Marcel Kolaja, Anja Hirschel "Common European Election Program"
Volt Volt Europa Damian Boeselager, Sophie in 't Veld "Electoral Moonshot Programme"

European People's Party

The centre-right EPP held its congress in Bucharest on 6-7 March 2024 to elect its presidential candidate and adopt its election programme.[72] Nominees required the backing of their own member party and not more than two other EPP member parties from EU countries, with nominations closing on February 21.[73]

On 19 February 2024, Ursula von der Leyen announced her intention to run, supported by the CDU.[74] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP delegates.[75] Among others, it is believed that the French and Slovenian delegations voted against.[76][77]

Party of European Socialists

The centre-left PES held its congress in Rome on 2 March. Nominees required the backing of nine PES full member parties or organisations, with nominations closing on 17 January.[78]

On 18 January, the PES announced that the Luxembourgish European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit was the sole nominee to meet the nominating requirements.[79] He was then nominated on 2 March during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[80]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party

The ALDE party held its extraordinary congress in Brussels on 20–21 March 2024.[81] On 7 March 2024, following months of speculation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that she had rejected the offer from ALDE to be the party's Spitzenkandidat.[82] Luxembourg’s former Prime Minister Xavier Bettel announced that he is not interested in the post either.[83]

On 11 March, the German FDP nominated Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann to become presidential candidate.[84] She was then elected on March 20 during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[85][86]

European Democratic Party

During the 8 March 2024 Convention in Florence, the European Democratic Party nominated Sandro Gozi as its lead candidate and approved its election programme.[87]

European Green Party

During the 2–4 February 2024 congress in Lyon, the European Green Party elected Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as its two presidential candidates and adopted its election programme.[88][89][90] Nominees were Bas Eickhout, Elīna Pinto, Terry Reintke, Benedetta Scuderi.[91][92]

European Free Alliance

In October 2023, the congress of the European Free Alliance elected Maylis Roßberg and Raül Romeva as its presidential candidates, and adopted its election programme.[93][94]

Party of the European Left

During the 24–25 February 2024 congress in Ljubljana,[95] the PEL elected Walter Baier [de] as its presidential candidate and adopted its election programme.[96]

European Christian Political Movement

In a meeting held on 24 February 2024, the European Christian Political Movement appointed party president Valeriu Ghilețchi as its lead candidate for the European Commission.[97]

European Pirate Party

At its General Assembly in Luxembourg in January 2024, the European Pirate Party nominated Marcel Kolaja and Anja Hirschel as lead candidates.[98]

Volt Europa

On 27 November 2023, Volt Europa adopted its European election programme at its General Assembly in Paris.[99] During the 6–7 April 2024 campaign launch event in Brussels the party elected German MEP Damian Boeselager and Dutch MEP Sophie in 't Veld as its lead candidates.[100] Regarding which European Parliament group to join after the elections, Boeselager said he was “open to discussions” between remaining in Greens/EFA or joining Renew Europe in due course.[101] To emphasise its demand for transnational lists, Volt Europa also presented a symbolic transnational list for the election alongside its leading candidates.[102]

Campaign

The future of Ursula von der Leyen

Prior to the elections, the future of Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, was uncertain. Although Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted he would support von der Leyen should she choose to run for the position again,[103] his coalition government has also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system.[104] This poses a challenge to von der Leyen's candidacy as this gives room to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, and fellow German CDU/CSU member, to propose alternative candidates, such as President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. Another option was for von der Leyen to run in the election for the Parliament to secure the support of her party.[105][106] But this was ruled out in September 2023.[107] She has been supported for a second term by the Leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz.[108]

On 19 February 2024, von der Leyen announced her intention to seek a second term.[74] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected European People's Party presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP congressional delegates.[109] The German government coalition agreement grants the right to nominate the next German EU Commissioner to the Greens, provided the Commission President is not from Germany.[110]

The future of Charles Michel

In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[111] This means European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer.[112] If elected to the European Parliament he would have had to step down anyway because of the dual mandate.[113] His mandate had been to set to expire in November 2024.[114] For this unanticipated decision Michel was criticised by EU officials and diplomats.[115] He was criticised by his political ally Sophie in 't Veld who questioned his "credibility".[116] This timing was reportedly set to mitigate potential disruptions from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country would be scheduled to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 July.[117] On 26 January 2024, Michel withdrew his candidacy and thus delayed his departure.[118]

Debates

2024 European Parliament election debates
Date and time Location Organisers Moderators Language Participants
 P  Present  A  Absent  I  Invited  NI  Not invited
EPP PES ALDE EDP EGP EFA ID ECR PEL ECPM
29 April 2024 19:00 CET[119][120] Theater aan het Vrijthof, Maastricht, Netherlands Studio Europa Maastricht,
Politico Europe 		Barbara Moens, Marcia Luyten English I P
Schmit 		P
Strack-Zimmermann[m] 		P
Eickhout 		P
Roßberg 		I I P
Baier 		I
23 May 2024[121] Espace Léopold, Brussels, Belgium European Broadcasting Union,
European Parliament 		TBA English TBA
24 May[122] Florence, Italy European University Institute TBA English TBA

Voting advice applications

Several voting advice applications have been developed to help voters choose their candidates.

At the European level

The Adeno application allows users to discover the European group that best matches their convictions through 100 questions (20 in the express mode) covering 10 themes. The application also offers a multiplayer mode. It is available on Android[123] and iPhone.[124]

VoteTracker.eu allows users to visualise the votes of MEPs of the 2019-2024 legislature on 18 selected votes, and to find the MEPs who best match their convictions.[125]

At the national level

In France, Candidator.fr allows users to find the list leader who best matches their convictions through 16 questions that position the respondent and candidates on 4 axes: environmental progressivism vs environmental conservatism, migration protectionism vs migration altruism, European federalism vs nationalism, egalitarianism vs capitalism.[126]

Opinion polling and seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election

Polling aggregations

Polling aggregator Last update Number of seats The Left S&D G/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others
Europe Elects[127] 16 Apr 2024 720 40 139 52 84 184 82 84 52 3
Politico Europe[128] 12 Apr 2024 720 33 139 45 83 174 78 87 42 39
election.de[129] 8 Apr 2024 720 39 138 55 86 176 81 86 60 —
Ipsos[130] 19 Mar 2024 720 42 136 55 85 177 76 81 68 —
Der Föderalist[131] 26 Feb 2024 720 35 135 48 85 176 78 85 36 42
2019 election After Brexit 1 Feb 2020 705 40 148 67 97 187 62 76 28 –
Before Brexit 26 May 2019 751 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 –

Controversies

Conflict with Portuguese national holiday

The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[132] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[133] which required unanimity to be changed.

Qatargate

The ongoing

Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[134][135]

Hungary

A majority of European Parliament MEPs voted for a nonbinding resolution demanding that the European Commission considers that Hungary be stripped of its EU voting rights.[136] The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[137][138]

Greece

At the beginning of March 2024, Greeks living abroad received a promotional email from MEP and New Democracy candidate Anna-Michelle Assimakopoulou, which triggered a wave of criticism that the law on the protection of personal data had been violated and that data on postal voters had been illegally passed on by the Ministry of the Interior.[139]

Russia Gate

On 27 March, the Czech Republic sanctioned the news site Voice of Europe, claiming that the site is part of a network for pro-Russian influence.

AfD) that incriminate him of having accepted money.[142] On 12 April, it became known that the Belgian public prosecutor's office is investigating whether European politicians were paid to spread Russian propaganda. In addition to Bystron, the investigation is also targeting Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff (FvD) and German MEP Maximilian Krah (AfD). The Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, who is close to Russian President Putin, is believed to be the man behind Voice of Europe.[143]

See also

Concurrent elections

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Not running for a European Parliament seat
  2. ^ This is the legal threshold. The share of the vote needed to win a seat may be higher than this in some countries.
  3. ^ This is the maximum vote share neccesary to mathematically guarantee winning a seat. It is here calculated as the Droop quota for each country. Where the legal threshold exceeds this threshold, the legal threshold is shown instead.
  4. ^ Depends on the constituency: 50% in the German-speaking electoral college, ~11.1% in the French-speaking electoral college, and ~7.1% in the Dutch-speaking electoral college.
  5. ^ a b 1 divided by the number of seats.
  6. ^ a b c d Hare quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  7. ^ Denmark allows for electoral alliances between separate party lists.
  8. ^ Seats are apportioned to parties nationally. A party can choose to only stand in some of the 16 states and have its national seat count be subapportioned to those states. Only the CDU and the CSU have done this in previous elections.
  9. ^ Depends on the constituency: 20% in Dublin, ~16.7% in Midlands–North-West and South.
  10. ^ a b Seats are apportioned to parties nationally, then subapportioned to the constituencies.
  11. ^ Droop quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  12. ^ Not a lead candidate, but selected to participate on behalf of the group in pre-election debates.[71]
  13. ^ Lead candidate for ALDE, representing in the debate the entire Renew Europe parliamentary group

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Further reading


External links

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