Ann Selzer
Ann Selzer | |
---|---|
Born | 1956 (age 67–68) Rochester, Minnesota, U.S. |
Education | University of Kansas (BA) University of Iowa (MA, PhD) |
Website | selzerco.com |
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the
Early life and education
Selzer was born in
Career
After grad school, Selzer worked for
Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict
Selzer & Co. conducted their final 2016 Iowa poll in early November, showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points.[12] Most other polls at the time showed a much closer race.[13] Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points. On October 31, 2020, Selzer's highly anticipated last poll of Iowa before the 2020 elections was released. It showed Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 7 percentage points, and Republican Senator Joni Ernst ahead of Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by 4 percentage points.[14] This was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show Trump ahead by more than 2 points.[15] Ernst's race was considered a toss-up at the time.[16] Trump eventually won Iowa by 8.2 percentage points, and Ernst was re-elected by a 6.6 point margin. In a post-election interview with Bloomberg, Selzer suggested that her polls' consistently high performance may be related to making fewer assumptions about the electorate, but rather "I assumed nothing. My data told me."[17]
As of January 2021, Selzer works out of an office in West Des Moines, Iowa.[5]
References
- ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ a b "Grinnell College National Poll Leadership". Grinnell College. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ Shepard, Steven (2015-12-12). "Ann Selzer's secret sauce". Politico. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ Kaplan, Rebecca (2015-12-14). "Donald Trump goes to war with Iowa's top pollster". CBS News. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ a b c d Malone, Clare (2016-01-27). "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ Winkler, Elizabeth (2020-01-04). "J. Ann Selzer: The Pollster to Follow as Iowa Looms". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2020-01-04.
- ^ "Alumni Q&A with J. Ann Selzer, political pollster – KU College Stories". Retrieved 2020-02-03.
- ^ Selzer, J. Ann (1984). The gender gap: Social evolution and social revolution (Ph.D. thesis). University of Iowa.
- ^ a b Ball, Molly (2011-11-25). "Friday Interview: The Polling Guru of the Iowa Caucuses". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ "Grinnell College National Poll | Grinnell College". www.grinnell.edu. Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
- ^ Noble, Jason (5 November 2016). "Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 19 December 2020.
- ^ "2016 Presidential forecast summary for Iowa". fivethirtyeight.com. 29 June 2016. Retrieved 19 December 2020.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2020-12-19.
- ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (2018-06-28). "Iowa President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-12-19.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Silver, Nate (2020-08-12). "2020 Senate Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-12-19.
- ^ "The Big Question: How Do You Make Polls More Accurate?". Bloomberg.com. 2020-11-15. Retrieved 2020-12-19.
Further reading
- "2011 Women Business Owner of the Year: J. Ann Selzer". Business Record. July 29, 2011. Retrieved August 4, 2019.
- Chalian, David (December 31, 2011). "Ann Selzer, queen of the Iowa caucuses: For a day, the most powerful woman in American politics". The Ticket. Retrieved August 4, 2019.
- Lee, Deron (November 17, 2015). "Iowa's Ann Selzer on what journalists need to know about polling". Columbia Journalism Review. Retrieved August 4, 2019.
- Prokop, Andrew (January 30, 2016). "The most respected Iowa pollster's final caucus poll is out. Here's what it says". Vox. Retrieved August 4, 2019.