Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the "main current system in the
The AMOC is characterized by a northward flow of warmer, fresher water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, saltier and deeper waters. These limbs are linked by regions of overturning in the Nordic Seas and the Southern Ocean. Overturning sites are associated with the intense exchange of heat, dissolved oxygen, carbon and other nutrients. They are very important for the ocean's ecosystems and for its functioning as a carbon sink.[3][4] Thus, if the strength of the AMOC changes, multiple elements of the climate system would be affected.[1]: 2238
Severe weakening of the AMOC may lead to an outright collapse of the circulation, which would not be easily reversible and thus constitute one of the
Overall structure
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the main current system in the Atlantic Ocean,[1]: 2238 and it is also part of the global thermohaline circulation, which connects the world's oceans with a single "conveyor belt" of continuous water exchange.[28] Normally, (relatively) warm and fresh water stays on the surface, while colder, denser and more saline water stays in the ocean depths, in what is known as ocean stratification.[29] However, deep water eventually gains heat and/or loses salinity in an exchange with the mixed ocean layer, and so it becomes less dense and rises towards the surface. Differences in temperature and salinity exist not only between ocean layers, but also between parts of the World Ocean, and together, they drive the thermohaline circulation.[28] In particular, the Pacific Ocean is less saline than the others, because it receives large quantities of fresh rainfall.[30] Its surface water lacks the salinity to sink lower than several hundred meters - meaning that deep ocean water must come in from elsewhere.[28]
On the other hand, ocean water in the North Atlantic is more saline, partly because the extensive evaporation on the surface concentrates salt within the remaining water, and the sea ice near the Arctic Circle expels salt as it freezes during the winter.[31] Even more importantly, evaporated moisture in the Atlantic swiftly carried away by atmospheric circulation before it could rain back down. Instead, trade winds move this moisture across Central America, and the westerlies transport it over Africa and Eurasia.[30] This water is precipitated either over land or in the Pacific Ocean while major mountain ranges, such as the Tibetan Plateau and the Rocky Mountains, prevent any equivalent moisture transport back to the Atlantic.[32]
Thus, the Atlantic surface waters become saltier and therefore denser, eventually sinking (downwelling) to form the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW).[33] NADW formation primarily occurs in the Nordic Seas, and it involves a complex interplay of regional water masses such as the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW), Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and Nordic Seas Overflow Water.[34] Labrador Sea Water may play an important role as well; however, increasing evidence suggests that the waters in Labrador and Irminger Seas primarily recirculate through the North Atlantic Gyre, and have little connection with the rest of the AMOC.[4][35][13]
NADW is not the deepest water layer in the Atlantic Ocean: instead, the
Meanwhile, NADW moves southwards, and at the southern end of the Atlantic transect, ~80% of it upwells in the Southern Ocean,
Role in the climate system
Equatorial areas are the hottest part of the globe, and thermodynamics require this heat to travel polewards. Most of this heat is transported by atmospheric circulation, but warm ocean currents at the surface play an important role as well. Heat transfer from the equator can be either towards the north or the south: the Atlantic Ocean is the only ocean where the heat flow is towards the north.[42] Much of this heat transfer occurs due to the Gulf Stream, a surface current which carries warm water from the Caribbean. While the Gulf Stream as a whole is driven by winds alone, its northern-most segment, the North Atlantic Current, obtains much of its heat from the thermohaline exchange within the AMOC.[3] Thus, AMOC alone carries up to 25% of the total heat transport towards the Northern Hemisphere,[42] and plays a particular importance around the latitudes of Northwest Europe.[43]
Because atmospheric patterns also play a large role, the idea that Northern Europe would be just as cold as Alaska and Canada without heat transport via the ocean currents (i.e. up to 15–20 °C (27–36 °F) colder) is generally considered false.[44][45] While one modelling study did suggest that the AMOC collapse could result in Ice Age-like cooling (including sea ice expansion and mass glacier formation) within a century,[46][47] the accuracy of those results is questionable.[48] Even so, there is a consensus that the AMOC keeps Northern and Western Europe warmer than it would be otherwise,[15] with the difference of 4 °C (7.2 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F) depending on the area.[13] For instance, studies of the Florida Current suggest that the Gulf Stream as a whole was around 10% weaker from around 1200 to 1850 due to increased surface salinity, and this had likely contributed to the conditions known as Little Ice Age.[49]
Further, the AMOC makes the Atlantic Ocean into a more effective carbon sink in two major ways. Firstly, the upwelling which takes place as part of the system supplies large quantities of nutrients to the surface waters, which supports the growth of phytoplankton and therefore increases marine primary production and the overall amount of photosynthesis in the surface waters. Secondly, upwelled water has low concentrations of dissolved carbon, as the water is typically 1000 years old and has not been sensitive to anthropogenic CO2 increases in the atmosphere. This water thus absorbs larger quantities of carbon than the more saturated surface waters, and is then prevented from releasing carbon back into the atmosphere when it is downwelled.[50] While Southern Ocean is by far the strongest ocean carbon sink,[51] North Atlantic represents the single largest carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere.[52]
Stability and vulnerability
Because the Atlantic meriditional overturning circulation is dependent on a series of interactions between layers of ocean water of varying temperature and salinity, it is far from static. Instead, it experiences both smaller, cyclical changes,
In the 1960s, Henry Stommel had pioneered much of the research into AMOC with what later became known as the Stommel Box model. It introduced the idea of a Stommel Bifurcation, where the AMOC could exist either in a strong state like the one throughout recorded history, or effectively "collapse" to a drastically weaker state, and not recover unless the increased warming and/or freshening which caused the collapse is reduced.[56] The warming/freshening could cause the collapse directly, or it could simply weaken the circulation to a state where its ordinary fluctuations ("noise") could push it past the point of no return.[21] The possibility that the AMOC is a bistable system (which is either "on" or "off") and could collapse suddenly has been a topic of scientific discussion ever since.[57][58] In 2004, The Guardian publicized the findings of a report commissioned by Pentagon defence adviser Andrew Marshall, which suggested that the average annual temperature in Europe would drop by 6 °F (3.3 °C) between 2010 and 2020 as the result of an abrupt AMOC shutdown.[59]
Modelling AMOC collapse
Some of the models developed after Stommel's work instead suggest that the AMOC could have one or more stable intermediate states, between its full strength and a full collapse.[61] This is more commonly seen in the so-called Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), which focus on certain parts of the climate system like AMOC and disregard others, rather than in the more comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs), which represent the "gold standard" for simulating the entire climate, but often have to simplify certain interactions.[62] GCMs typically show that the AMOC has a single equilibrium state, and that it is difficult, if not impossible, for it to collapse.[63][60]
However, multiple researchers have raised concerns that this modelled resistance to collapse only occurs because the GCM simulations tend to redirect large quantities of freshwater towards the North Pole (where it would no longer affect the circulation), while this movement does not occur in nature.[53][17]
In 2024, three researchers performed a simulation with one of the CMIP models (the Community Earth System Model), where a classic AMOC collapse had eventually occurred, much like it does in the intermediate-complexity models.[46] Unlike some other simulations, they did not immediately subject the model to unrealistic meltwater levels, and instead gradually increased the input. However, their simulation had not only run for over 1700 years before the collapse occurred, but they had also eventually reached meltwater levels equivalent to sea level rise of 6 cm (2.4 in)/yr[48] - about 20 times larger than the 2.9 mm (0.11 in)/yr sea level rise between 1993 to 2017,[64] and well above any level considered plausible. According to the researchers, those unrealistic conditions were intended to counterbalance the model's unrealistic stability, and the model's output should not be taken as a prediction in and of itself, but rather as a high-resolution representation of how currents would start changing before a collapse.[46] Other scientists agreed that its findings would mainly help with calibrating more realistic studies, particularly once better observational data becomes available.[48][47]
On the other hand, some research indicates that the classic EMIC projections are biased towards collapse because they subject the circulation towards an unrealistically constant flow of freshwater. In one study, the difference between constant and variable freshwater flux delayed collapse of the circulation in a typical Stommel's Bifurcation EMIC by over 1000 years. The researchers suggested that this simulation is more consistent with the reconstructions of AMOC response to Meltwater pulse 1A (13,500-14,700 years ago), which indicate a similarly long delay.[21] Moreover, a paleoceanographic reconstruction from 2022 found only a limited impact from massive freshwater forcing of the final Holocene deglaciation ~11,700–6,000 years ago, when the sea level rise amounted to around 50 m (160 ft). It suggested that most models overestimate the impact of freshwater forcing on AMOC.[20] Further, if AMOC is more dependent on wind strength (which changes relatively little with warming) than is commonly understood, then it would be more resistant to collapse.[65] And according to some researchers, the less-studied Southern Ocean overturning circulation may be more vulnerable than the AMOC.[27]
Trends
Observations
Direct observations of the strength of the AMOC have been available only since 2004 from RAPID, an in situ mooring array at 26°N in the Atlantic.[67][66] Further, observational data needs to be collected for a prolonged period of time to be of use. Thus, some researchers have attempted to make predictions from smaller-scale observations. For instance, in May 2005, submarine-based research from Peter Wadhams indicated that downwelling in the Greenland Sea (a small part of the larger AMOC system) reduced to less than a quarter of its normal strength, as measured by a number of giant water columns (nicknamed "chimneys") transferring water downwards.[68][69] Other researchers in 2000s have focused on trends in the North Atlantic Gyre (also known as the northern subpolar gyre, or SPG).[70] When measurements taken in 2004 found a 30% decline in SPG relative to the previous measurement in 1992, some have intepreted it as a sign of AMOC collapse.[71] However, RAPID data have soon shown this to be a statistical anomaly,[72] and observations from 2007/2008 have shown a recovery of the SPG.[73] Further, it is now known that the North Atlantic Gyre is largely separate from the rest of the AMOC, and could collapse independently of it.[13][74][15]
By 2014, there was enough processed RAPID data up until the end of 2012, and it appeared to show a decline in circulation which was 10 times greater than what was predicted by the most advanced models of the time. Scientific debate began over whether it indicated a strong impact of climate change, or simply large interdecadal variability of the circulation.[53][75] Data up until 2017 had shown that the decline in 2008-2009 was anomalously large, but the circulation after 2008 was nevertheless weaker than it was in 2004-2008.[66]
Another way to observe the AMOC is through tracking changes in heat transport only, since they would necessarily be correlated with the overall current flows. In 2017 and 2019, estimates derived from heat observations made by NASA's CERES satellites and international Argo floats suggested 15-20% less overall heat transport than implied by the RAPID, and indicated a fairly stable flow, with only a limited indication of decadal variability.[76][77]
Reconstructions
Recent past
Climate reconstructions allow research to piece together hints about the past state of the AMOC, though these techniques are necessarily less reliable than the direct observations. In February 2021, RAPID data was combined with the reconstructed trends from 25 years before RAPID. Doing so had shown no evidence of an overall AMOC decline over the past 30 years.[78] Likewise, a Science Advances study published in 2020 found no significant change in the AMOC circulation relative to 1990s, even though substantial changes have occurred across the North Atlantic Ocean over the same period.[79] A March 2022 review article concluded that while there may be a long-term weakening of the AMOC caused by global warming, it remains difficult to detect when analyzing its evolution since 1980 (including both direct, as that time frame presents both periods of weakening and strengthening, and the magnitude of either change is uncertain (in range between 5% and 25%). The review concluded with a call for more sensitive and longer-term research.[80]
20th century
Some reconstructions reach deeper into the past, attempting to compare the current state of the AMOC with that from a century or so earlier. For instance, a 2010 statistical analysis found an ongoing weakening of the AMOC since the late 1930s, with an abrupt shift of a North Atlantic overturning cell around 1970.[81] In 2015, a different statistical analysis interpeted a specific cold pattern in certain years of temperature records as a sign of AMOC weakening. It concluded that the AMOC has weakened by 15–20% in 200 years, and that the circulation was slowing throughout most of the 20th century. Between 1975 and the 1995, the circulation would have been weaker than at any time over the past millennium. While this analysis had also shown a limited recovery after 1990, the authors cautioned that a decline is likely to reoccur in the future.[5]
In 2018, another reconstruction suggested a weakening of around 15% since the mid-twentieth century.[82] A 2021 reconstructon drew on over a century of ocean temperature and salinity data, which appeared to show significant changes in eight independent AMOC indices, to the point they could indicate "an almost complete loss of stability". However, this reconstruction was forced to omit all data from 35 years before 1900 and after 1980 to maintain consistent records of all eight indicators.[24] All these findings were challenged by 2022 research, which used nearly 120 years of data between 1900 and 2019 and found no change between 1900 and 1980, with a single-sverdrup reduction in AMOC strength not emerging until 1980 – a variation which remains within range of natural variability.[7]
Millennial-scale
2018 research suggested that the last 150 years of AMOC demonstrated exceptional weakness when compared to the previous 1500 years, and it indicated a discrepancy in the modeled timing of AMOC decline after the Little Ice Age.[84] A 2017 review concluded that there is strong evidence for past changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC during abrupt climate events such as the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events.[85] In 2022, another millennial-scale reconstruction suggested that the Atlantic multidecadal variability displayed strongly increasing "memory", meaning that it is now less likely to return to the mean state, and instead would procede in the direction of past variation. Since this pattern is likely connected to AMOC, this could indicate a "quiet" loss of stability not seen in most models.[83]
In February 2021, a major study in Nature Geoscience had reported that the preceding millennium had seen an unprecedented weakening of the AMOC, an indication that the change was caused by human actions.[6][86] Its co-author said that AMOC had already slowed by about 15%, with impacts now being seen: "In 20 to 30 years it is likely to weaken further, and that will inevitably influence our weather, so we would see an increase in storms and heatwaves in Europe, and sea level rises on the east coast of the US."[86] In February 2022, Nature Geoscience published a "Matters Arising" commentary article co-authored by 17 scientists, which disputed those findings and argued that the long-term AMOC trend remains uncertain.[8] The journal had also published a response from the authors of 2021 study to "Matters Arising" article, where they defended their findings.[87]
Possible indirect signs
Some researchers have interpreted a range of recently observed climatic changes and trends as being connected to the AMOC slowdown. For instance, a major area of the
Physically, the cold blob pattern occurs because even cool waters avoid sinking into the deeper layers if they are fresh enough. This freshening was immediately described as the evidence of AMOC slowdown.
Another possible early indication of the AMOC slowdown is the relative reduction in the North Atlantic's potential to act as a carbon sink. Between 2004 and 2014, the amount of carbon sequestered in the North Atlantic declined by 20% relative to 1994-2004, which the researchers considered evidence of AMOC slowdown. This decline was offset by the comparable increase in the South Atlantic (considered part of the Southern Ocean).[94] While the total amount of carbon absorbed by all carbon sinks is generally projected to increase throughout the century, a decline in the North Atlantic sink would have important implications if it were to continue.[95] Other processes which were attributed in some studies to AMOC slowdown include increasing salinity in the South Atlantic,[96] "rapid" deoxygenation in the Gulf of St. Lawrence,[97][98] and a ~10% decline in phytoplankton productivity across the North Atlantic over the past 200 years.[99]
Projections
Individual models
Historically, CMIP models (the gold standard in climate science) suggest that the AMOC is very stable, in that while it may weaken, it'll always recover in time, rather than collapse outright. However, many researchers have suggested this was only due to the biases persistent across these models, such as an insufficient analysis of the impacts on circulation caused by Greenland ice sheet meltwater intrusion.[63][22]
Some scientists experimented with bias correction to address it. In 2017, an experiment with Community Climate System Model simulated an idealized scenario where CO2 concentrations abruptly double from 1990 levels and do not change afterwards. The AMOC collapsed after 300 years when bias correction was applied to the model.[17] In an earlier CO2 doubling experiment performed without bias correction, the circulation declined by ~25% instead of collapsing, but then it only recovered by 6% over 1,000 years.[101]
One 2016 experiment combined projections from eight then-state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate models with the improved Greenland ice sheet melt estimates. It found that by 2090–2100, the AMOC would weaken by around 18% (3%-34%) under the "intermediate" Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, and by 37% (15%-65%) under the very high Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, where greenhouse gas emissions increase continuously. When the two scenarios were extended past 2100, AMOC stabilized under RCP 4.5, but continued to decline under RCP 8.5, leading to an average decline of 74% by 2290–2300 and a 44% likelihood of an outright collapse.[18] In 2020, a different team of researchers simulated RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 between 2005 and 2250 in a Community Earth System Model integrated with an advanced ocean physics module. Due to the module, the circulation was subjected to 4-10 times more freshwater when compared to the standard run. It simulated very similar results for RCP 4.5 as the 2016 study, while under RCP 8.5, the circulation declines by two-thirds soon after 2100, but does not collapse past that level.[102]
The sixth generation of climate models, CMIP6, became available around 2020.
Another study published in 2020 analyzed how the AMOC would be impacted by temperature stabilizing at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), 2 °C (3.6 °F) (the two Paris Agreement goals, both well below the warming under of RCP 4.5) or 3 °C (5.4 °F) by 2100 (slightly above the expected warming by 2100 under RCP 4.5). In all three cases, the AMOC declines for an additional 5–10 years after the temperature rise ceases, but it does not come close to collapse, and experiences some recovery after about 150 years.[19]
In 2023, a statistical analysis of output from multiple intermediate-complexity models suggested that AMOC collapse would most likely happen around 2057, with the 95% confidence range between 2025 and 2095.[25] This study had received a lot of attention, but also a lot of criticism, since the intermediate-complexity models are considered less reliable in general, and may confuse a major slowdown of the circulation with its complete collapse. Further, the study relied on proxy temperature data from the Northern Subpolar Gyre region, which other scientists do not consider representative of the entire circulation, believing it is potentially subject to a separate tipping point instead. Some scientists have still described this research as "worrisome" and noted that it can provide a "valuable contribution" once better observational data is available, but there was widespread agreement amongst experts that the paper's proxy record was "insufficient", with one saying the projection had "feet of clay". Some went as far as to say the study used old observational data from 5 ship surveys which "has long been discredited" by the lack of major weakening seen in direct observations since 2004, "including in the reference they cite for it".[26]
Major review studies
Large review papers and reports are capable of evaluating model output together with direct observations and historical reconstructions in order to make expert judgements beyond what models alone can show. Around 2001, the IPCC Third Assessment Report projected high confidence that the thermohaline circulation would tend to weaken rather than stop, and that the warming effects would outweigh the cooling, even over Europe.[107] When the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report was published in 2014, a rapid transition of the AMOC was considered very unlikely, and this assessment was offered at a high confidence level.[108]
In 2021, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report again assessed that the AMOC is very likely to decline within the 21st century, and expressed high confidence that changes to it would be reversible within centuries if the warming was reversed.[9]: 19 Unlike the Fifth Assessment Report, it had only expressed medium confidence rather than high confidence in AMOC avoiding a collapse before the end of the century. This reduction in confidence was likely influenced by several review studies drawing attention to the circulation stability bias within general circulation models,[109][110] as well as simplified ocean modelling studies suggesting that the AMOC may be more vulnerable to abrupt change than what the larger-scale models suggest.[23]
In 2022, an extensive assessment of all potential climate tipping points identified 16 plausible climate tipping points, including a collapse of the AMOC. It suggested that a collapse would most likely be triggered by 4 °C (7.2 °F) of global warming, but that there's enough uncertainty to suggest it could be triggered at warming levels as low as 1.4 °C (2.5 °F), or as high as 8 °C (14 °F). Likewise, it estimates that once AMOC collapse is triggered, it would most likely take place over 50 years, but the entire range is between 15 and 300 years.[13][74] That assessment also treated the collapse of the Northern Subpolar Gyre as a potential separate tipping point, which could occur at between 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) degrees and 3.8 °C (6.8 °F) (although this is only simulated by a fraction of climate models). The most likely figure is 1.8 °C (3.2 °F), and once triggered, the collapse of the gyre would most likely take 10 years from start to end, with a range between 5 and 50 years. The loss of this convection is estimated to lower the global temperature by 0.5 °C (0.90 °F), while the average temperature in Europe decreases by around 3 °C (5.4 °F). There are also substantial impacts on regional precipitation.[13][74]
Impacts of AMOC slowdown
While there is not yet consensus on whether there has already been a consistent slowdown in AMOC circulation, there is little doubt that it would occur in the future under continued climate change.
Multiple scientists believe that a partial slowdown would result in limited cooling in Europe,
On the other hand, a 2021 study suggested that other well-known tipping points, such as the Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Amazon rainforest would all be connected to AMOC. According to this study, changes to AMOC are unlikely to trigger tipping elsewhere on their own. However, AMOC slowdown would provide a connection between these elements, and reduce the global warming threshold beyond which any of those four elements (including the AMOC itself) could be expected to tip, as opposed to thresholds established from studying those elements in isolation. This connection could potentially cause a cascade of tipping across multi-century timescales.[122]
In 2020, a study evaluated the effects of projected AMOC weakening in the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which portrays a future of continually increasing emissions. In this scenario, a weakened AMOC would also slow down Arctic sea ice decline and delay the emergence of an ice-free Arctic by around 6 years, as well as preventing over 50% of sea ice loss on the edges of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk in the years 2061–2080. It also found a southward displacement of Intertropical Convergence Zone, with the associated rainfall increases to the north of it over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and decreases to the south, but cautioned that those trends would be dwarved by the far larger changes in precipitation associated with RCP 8.5. Finally, it found that this slowdown would further deepen Icelandic Low and Aleutian Low due to the displacement of westerly jets.[123] 2022 research suggested that 20th century winter weather extremes in Siberia were milder when the AMOC was weaker.[41]
Impacts of an AMOC shutdown
Cooling
A full AMOC shutdown will be largely irreversible,
In 2020, a study had assessed the impact of an AMOC collapse on farming and food production in Great Britain.[129] It found an average temperature drop of 3.4 °C (6.1 °F) (after the impact of warming was subtracted from collapse-induced cooling.) Moreover, AMOC collapse would lower rainfall during the growing season by around <123mm, which would in turn reduce the land area suitable for arable farming from the 32% to 7%. The net value of British farming would decline by around £346 million per year, or over 10%.[14]
In 2024, one modelling study suggested even more severe cooling in Europe - between 10 °C (18 °F) and 30 °C (54 °F) within a century for land and up to 18 °F (10 °C) on sea. This would result in sea ice reaching into the territorial waters of the British Isles and Denmark during winter, while the Antarctic sea ice would diminish instead. Scandinavia and parts of Britain would become cold enough to eventually support ice sheets.[46][47][130] However, these findings do not include the counteracting warming from climate change itself, and the modelling approach used by the paper is controversial.[48]
A 2015 study led by
Other
In 2017, a study evaluated the effects of a shutdown on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but found no overall impact, with divergent atmospheric processes cancelling each other out.[133] 2021 research suggested that an AMOC slowdown or collapse could nevertheless increase the strength of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and thus amplify climate extremes, especially if it causes another overturning circulation to develop in the Pacific Ocean.[134]
In contrast, a 2022 study showed that an AMOC collapse is likely to accelerate the Pacific
A 2021 study used a simplified modelling approach to evaluate the impact of a shutdown on the Amazon rainforest and its hypothesized dieback and transition to a
A 2005 paper suggested that a severe AMOC "disruption" would collapse North Atlantic plankton counts to less than half of their normal
See also
- 8.2-kiloyear event
- Climate security
- Loop Current
- Pacific decadal oscillation
- Paleosalinity
- West Greenland Current
References
- ^ a b c IPCC, 2021: Annex VII: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.
- NOAA. 29 March 2023.
- ^ S2CID 54013534.
- ^ S2CID 59567598.
- ^
- ^ S2CID 232052381.
- ^ S2CID 248385988.
- ^ S2CID 246901665.
- ^ .
- PMID 18258748.
- ^ S2CID 2751408.
- ^ a b "Explainer: Nine 'tipping points' that could be triggered by climate change". Carbon Brief. 10 February 2020. Retrieved 4 September 2021.
- ^ S2CID 252161375.
- ^ a b "Atlantic circulation collapse could cut British crop farming". Phys.org. 13 January 2020. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
- ^ a b c d Lenton, T. M.; Armstrong McKay, D.I.; Loriani, S.; Abrams, J.F.; Lade, S.J.; Donges, J.F.; Milkoreit, M.; Powell, T.; Smith, S.R.; Zimm, C.; Buxton, J.E.; Daube, Bruce C.; Krummel, Paul B.; Loh, Zoë; Luijkx, Ingrid T. (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 (Report). University of Exeter.
- ^ .
- ^ PMID 28070560.
- ^ S2CID 133069692.
- ^ S2CID 219175812.
- ^ S2CID 248004571.
- ^ S2CID 246705201.
- ^ ISSN 1752-0908.
- ^ PMID 33619095.
- ^ S2CID 236930519.
- ^ PMID 37491344.
- ^ a b "expert reaction to paper warning of a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation". Science Media Centre. 25 July 2023. Retrieved 11 August 2023.
- ^ S2CID 255028552.
- ^ .
- .
- ^ .
- ^ "Salinity and Brine". NSIDC.
- PMID 38521775.
- ^ doi:10.1038/ngeo1391.
- S2CID 56353963.
- ^
- ^ "AMS Glossary of Meteorology, Antarctic Bottom Water". American Meteorological Society. Retrieved 29 June 2023.
- S2CID 13857911.
- S2CID 132601314.
- .
- ^ .
- ^ .
- ^ .
- ISBN 978-1-4020-6773-0. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
- S2CID 8558921. Retrieved 25 October 2010.
- JSTOR 27858802. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
- ^ PMID 38335283.
- ^ a b c d Rahmstorf, Stefan (9 February 2024). "New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC "is on tipping course"". RealClimate.
- ^ a b c d e f "expert reaction to modelling study suggesting Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) could be on course to collapse". Science Media Centre. 9 February 2024. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
- S2CID 4431695.
- S2CID 42020235.
- S2CID 244841359.
- S2CID 6469504.
- ^ S2CID 22060669.
- .
- .
- .
- S2CID 970991.
- S2CID 7353330.
- ^ "Key findings of the Pentagon". The Guardian. 22 February 2004. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
- ^ PMID 37741891.
- S2CID 3136307.
- S2CID 94737971.
- ^ S2CID 17003970.
- .
- PMID 19897722.
- ^ S2CID 52088897.
- S2CID 4431161.
- ^ Leake, Jonathan (8 May 2005). "Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 12 January 2006.
- ^ Schmidt, Gavin (26 May 2005). "Gulf Stream slowdown?". RealClimate.
- ^ "Satellites record weakening North Atlantic Current". ScienceDaily. 16 April 2004.
- NewScientist.
- PMID 17713489.
- hdl:1912/2840.
- ^ a b c d Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
- S2CID 129713110.
- .
- .
- ^ .
- PMID 33246958.
- S2CID 247160367.
- .
- S2CID 4781781.
- ^ PMID 36056010.
- S2CID 4771341.
- PMID 27814029.
- ^ a b Harvey, Fiona (26 February 2021). "Atlantic Ocean circulation at weakest in a millennium, say scientists". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 February 2021.
- S2CID 246901654.
- ^ Brown, Dwayne; Cabbage, Michael; McCarthy, Leslie; Norton, Karen (20 January 2016). "NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015". NASA. Archived from the original on 20 January 2016. Retrieved 21 January 2016.
- ^ .
- ^ .
- ^ .
- ^ a b Mooney, Chris (30 September 2015). "Everything you need to know about the surprisingly cold 'blob' in the North Atlantic ocean". The Washington Post.
- ^ a b McSweeney, Robert (29 June 2020). "Scientists shed light on human causes of North Atlantic's 'cold blob'". Carbon Brief.
- hdl:10261/333982.
- ISBN 9781009157896.
- S2CID 221674578.
- PMID 30416585.
- ^ "Large-scale shift causing lower-oxygen water to invade Canada's Gulf of St. Lawrence". Phys.org. 17 September 2018. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
- S2CID 146118196.
- ^ PMID 34135324.
- .
- PMID 32967838.
- ^ S2CID 250077615.
- ^ Hausfather, Zeke (2 December 2019). "CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained". Carbon Brief.
- ^ IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- ^ "Tipping Elements – big risks in the Earth System". Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Retrieved 31 January 2024.
- ISBN 978-0-521-80767-8. (pb: 0-521-01495-6)
- ^ "IPCC AR5 WG1" (PDF). IPCC. p. Table 12.4. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 August 2015.
- S2CID 133294706.
- S2CID 199807871.
- ^ .
- ^ Yin, Jianjun & Griffies, Stephen (25 March 2015). "Extreme sea level rise event linked to AMOC downturn". CLIVAR. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.
- ^ Mooney, Chris (1 February 2016). "Why the U.S. East Coast could be a major 'hotspot' for rising seas". The Washington Post.
- S2CID 237611075.
- ^ Krajick, Kevin (23 September 2021). "Why the U.S. Northeast Coast Is a Global Warming Hot Spot". Columbia Climate School. Retrieved 23 March 2023.
- ^ University of South Florida (22 January 2016). "Melting Greenland ice sheet may affect global ocean circulation, future climate". Phys.org.
- ^ Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko (2015). "Predictions Implicit in "Ice Melt" Paper and Global Implications". Archived from the original on 23 September 2015.
- S2CID 49865284.
- PMID 34400500.
- PMID 35588449.
- PMID 35588452.
- from the original on 4 June 2021. Retrieved 4 June 2021.
- PMID 32637596.
- .
- ^ University Of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (20 December 2004). "Shutdown Of Circulation Pattern Could Be Disastrous, Researchers Say". ScienceDaily.
- ^ "Weather Facts: North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream) | weatheronline.co.uk". www.weatheronline.co.uk.
- ^ "The North Atlantic Drift Current". oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu.
- S2CID 153075940. Archived from the original(PDF) on 6 September 2006.
- S2CID 214269716.
- ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 10 February 2024.
- ^ "James Hansen's controversial sea level rise paper has now been published online". The Washington Post. 23 July 2015.
- ISBN 978-0-367-72588-4.
- S2CID 55707315.
- S2CID 244228477.
- S2CID 249401296.
- S2CID 250720455.
- ^ "A huge Atlantic ocean current is slowing down. If it collapses, La Niña could become the norm for Australia". The Conversation. 6 June 2022. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
- S2CID 237865150.
- S2CID 129242813.
External links
- Project THOR University of Hamburg project to study the thermohaline circulation
- "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security" (2003 study)
- What If the Conveyor Were to Shut Down? Reflections on a Possible Outcome of the Great Global Experiment (1999 study)
- Why is there a thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic but not the Pacific? (2005 technical report)
- Original article at the Encyclopedia of Earth