Causes of climate change
The scientific community has been investigating the causes of climate change for decades. After thousands of studies, it came to a
The warming from the
: 2233As the warming from CO2 increases, carbon sinks absorb a smaller fraction of total emissions, while the "fast"
Factors affecting Earth's climate
A forcing is something that is imposed externally on the
Climate feedbacks can either amplify or dampen the response of the climate to a given forcing.[14]: 7 There are many feedback mechanisms in the climate system that can either amplify (a positive feedback) or diminish (a negative feedback) the effects of a change in climate forcing.
The climate system will vary in response to changes in forcings.[15] The climate system will show internal variability both in the presence and absence of forcings imposed on it. This internal variability is a result of complex interactions between components of the climate system, such as the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean.[16] An example of internal variability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Human-caused influences
Factors affecting Earth's climate can be broken down into
- A physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established.
- There are historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual.
- Advanced climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included.
- Observations of natural forces, such as solar and volcanic activity) show that cannot explain the observed warming. For example, an increase in solar activity would have warmed the entire atmosphere, yet only the lower atmosphere has warmed.[18]
Greenhouse gases
Human activity since the
This has led to increases in mean global temperature, or
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 75% was CO2, 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases.[32]: 7
Carbon dioxide
CO2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for
CO2 is absorbed and emitted naturally as part of the carbon cycle, through animal and plant respiration, volcanic eruptions, and ocean-atmosphere exchange.[35] Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use (see below), release large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, causing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to rise.[35][36]
The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration, initiated by Charles David Keeling in 1958, constitute the master time series documenting the changing composition of the atmosphere.[37] These data, known as the Keeling Curve, have iconic status in climate change science as evidence of the effect of human activities on the chemical composition of the global atmosphere.[37]
Keeling's initial 1958 measurements showed 313 parts per million by volume (ppm). Atmospheric CO2 concentrations, commonly written "ppm", are measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv). In May 2019, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 415 ppm. The last time when it reached this level was 2.6–5.3 million years ago. Without human intervention, it would be 280 ppm.[38]
Methane and nitrous oxide
Methane emissions
Methane and to a lesser extent nitrous oxide are also major forcing contributors to the greenhouse effect. The Kyoto Protocol lists these together with hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6),[42] which are entirely artificial gases, as contributors to radiative forcing. The chart at right attributes anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to eight main economic sectors, of which the largest contributors are power stations (many of which burn coal or other fossil fuels), industrial processes, transportation fuels (generally fossil fuels), and agricultural by-products (mainly methane from enteric fermentation and nitrous oxide from fertilizer use).[43]
Aerosols
Air pollution, in the form of
Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[54] They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[55] Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[56]
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.[57] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[58]
Land surface changes
According to
Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (
Livestock-associated emissions
More than 18% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices.[69] Specific attributions to the livestock sector include:
- 9% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions
- 35–40% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure)
- 64% of global anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions, chiefly due to fertilizer use.[69]
Ripple effects
Carbon sinks
The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of the
This fraction of absorbed emissions is not static. If future CO2 emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.[73] This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer.[74][75] The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution.[76][77][78]
Climate change feedbacks
The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by
Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,
Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.[88] More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature changes.[89] Arctic amplification is also thawing permafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.[90] Climate change can also cause methane releases from wetlands, marine systems, and freshwater systems.[91] Overall, climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive.[92]
Natural variability
Already in 2001, the
Between 1750 and 2007, solar radiation may have at most increased by 0.12 W/m2, compared to 1.6 W/m2 for the net anthropogenic forcing.
Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapor into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.[104] Because both water vapor and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere, even the largest eruptions only have an effect for several years.[105]
See also
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- Jia, G.; Shevliakova, E.; Artaxo, P. E.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; et al. (2019). "Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions" (PDF). IPCC SRCCL 2019. pp. 131–247.
Sixth Assessment Report
- IPCC (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S. L.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (PDF). Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US: Cambridge University Press(In Press).
- Arias, Paola A.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Coppola, Erika; Jones, Richard G.; et al. (2021). "Technical Summary" (PDF). IPCC AR6 WG1 2021.
Attribution
- This article incorporates public domain material from EPA (2009), Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. EPA's Response to Public Comments, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), archived from the original on 14 August 2012, retrieved 23 June 2011.
External links
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- UK Met Office: Climate Guide
- NOAA Climate website – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States