Currency crisis
A
The crisis is often accompanied by a
Currency crises can be especially destructive to small
A currency crisis is normally considered as part of a financial crisis. Kaminsky et al. (1998), for instance, define currency crises as when a weighted average of monthly percentage depreciations in the exchange rate and monthly percentage declines in exchange reserves exceeds its mean by more than three standard deviations. Frankel and Rose (1996) define a currency crisis as a nominal depreciation of a currency of at least 25% but it is also defined at least 10% increase in the rate of depreciation. In general, a currency crisis can be defined as a situation when the participants in an exchange market come to recognize that a pegged exchange rate is about to fail, causing speculation against the peg that hastens the failure and forces a devaluation or appreciation.[citation needed]
Recessions attributed to currency crises include the
Theories
The currency crises and sovereign debt crises that have occurred with increasing frequency since the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s have inspired a huge amount of research. There have been several 'generations' of models of currency crises.[7]
First generation
The 'first generation' of models of currency crises began with Paul Krugman's adaptation of Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson's model of speculative attacks in the gold market.[8] In his article,[9] Krugman argues that a sudden speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate, even though it appears to be an irrational change in expectations, can result from rational behavior by investors. This happens if investors foresee that a government is running an excessive deficit, causing it to run short of liquid assets or "harder" foreign currency which it can sell to support its currency at the fixed rate. Investors are willing to continue holding the currency as long as they expect the exchange rate to remain fixed, but they flee the currency en masse when they anticipate that the peg is about to end.
Second generation
The 'second generation' of models of currency crises starts with the paper of Obstfeld (1986).[10] In these models, doubts about whether the government is willing to maintain its exchange rate peg lead to multiple equilibria, suggesting that self-fulfilling prophecies may be possible. Specifically, investors expect a contingent commitment by the government and if things get bad enough, the peg is not maintained. For example, in the 1992 ERM crisis, the UK was experiencing an economic downturn just as Germany was booming due to the reunification. As a result, the German Bundesbank increased interest rates to slow the expansion. To maintain the peg to Germany, it would have been necessary for the Bank of England to slow the UK economy further by increasing its interest rates as well. As the UK was already in a downturn, increasing interest rates would have increased unemployment further and investors anticipated that the UK politicians were not willing to maintain the peg. As a result, investors attacked the currency and the UK left the peg.
Third generation
'Third generation' models of currency crises have explored how problems in the banking and financial system interact with currency crises, and how crises can have real effects on the rest of the economy.[11] McKinnon & Pill (1996), Krugman (1998), Corsetti, Pesenti, & Roubini (1998) suggested that "over borrowing" by banks to fund moral hazard lending was a form of hidden government debts (to the extent that governments would bail out failing banks).[citation needed] Radelet & Sachs (1998) suggested that self-fulfilling panics that hit the financial intermediaries, force liquidation of long run assets, which then "confirms" the panics.[citation needed]
Chang and Velasco (2000) argue that a currency crisis may cause a banking crisis if local banks have debts denominated in foreign currency,[12] Burnside, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo (2001 and 2004) argue that a government guarantee of the banking system may give banks an incentive to take on foreign debt, making both the currency and the banking system vulnerable to attack.[13][14]
Krugman (1999)
Eurozone crisis as a balance-of-payments crisis
According to some economists the
Others, like some of the followers of the
See also
- Alter-globalization – Social movement
- ATTAC (Association for the Taxation of Financial Transactions for the Aid of Citizens)– French tax advocacy group
- Central banks - which issue currency – Government body that manages currency and monetary policy
- Currency intervention – Monetary policy operation
- Currency war – Competition between nations to gain competitive advantage by manipulating monetary supply
- Currency transaction tax – Form of tax
- Debt crisis – Situation in which a government cannot pay back its debt
- Economic collapse – Severe and prolonged economic problems
- Exorbitant privilege – Economic gain by reserve currency nation
- Financial crisis – Situation in which financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value
- Financial market – Generic term for all markets in which trading takes place with capital
- Financial transaction tax – Form of tax
- Fluctuation in exchange rates – Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another
- Foreign exchange controls – Controls imposed by a government on the purchase/sale of foreign currencies
- Foreign exchange market – Global decentralized trading of international currencies
- Global Justice Movement– Network of organized efforts around international justice
- Jubilee 2000 – International movement to cancel third world debt by the year 2000
- Liquidity crisis – Acute shortage of liquidity
- Money market – Type of financial market providing short-term funds
- Paul Bernd Spahn – German economist
- Spahn tax – Type of currency transaction tax
- Speculation – Engaging in risky financial transactions
- Speculative attack – precipitous selling of untrustworthy assets by previously inactive speculators and the corresponding acquisition of some valuable assets
- Sudden stop (economics)
- Speculation in foreign exchange markets – Global decentralized trading of international currencies
- Tobin tax – Form of tax
Related economic crises
- Bretton Woods system#U.S. balance of payments crisis (1960s)
- Mexican peso crisis
- 1997 Asian financial crisis
- 1998 Russian financial crisis
- 1998–2002 Argentine great depression
- Financial crisis of 2007–2008
References
- S2CID 5960798.
- .
- S2CID 237827555.
- ISBN 9781429278430.
- ^ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Currency Crises, September 2011
- S2CID 154951242.
- ^ Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo (2008), 'Currency crisis models', New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed.
- S2CID 677477.
- JSTOR 1991793.
- JSTOR 1804128.
- .
- hdl:10419/100855.
- .
- .
- ^ Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises. International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. Bosten: Kluwer Academic, 31-44.
- S2CID 225624817. Retrieved 5 April 2023.
- ^ Selected sources on viewing the Eurozone Crisis as a balance-of-payments crisis:
- Krugman, Paul (September 23, 2011). "Origins of the Euro Crisis". The New York Times.
- Krugman, Paul (November 7, 2011). "Wishful Thinking And The Road To Eurogeddon". The New York Times.
- Krugman, Paul (February 25, 2012). "European Crisis Realities". The New York Times.
- Krugman, Paul (September 14, 2013). "But Where's My Phoenix?". The New York Times.
- Krugman, Paul (August 26, 2014). "Currency Regimes, Capital Flows, and Crises". IMF Economic Review. 62 (4): 470–493. S2CID 28301149.
- Wolf, Martin (April 10, 2012). "Why the Bundesbank is wrong". Financial Times.
- Davies, Gavyn (November 6, 2011). "The eurozone decouples from the world". Financial Times.
- Verma, Sid (November 8, 2011). "The eurozone crisis as balance of payment problem". Financial Times. Financial Times Alphaville.
- Avent, Ryan (November 28, 2011). "Who killed the euro zone?". The Economist.
- Nixon, Simon (December 2, 2012). "Euro's Unity Continues to Defy the Bears". The Wall Street Journal.
- Sinn, Hans Werner (October 3, 2011). "How to rescue the euro: Ten commandments". Vox.
- Pisani-Ferry, Jean; Merler, Silvia (April 2, 2012). "Sudden stops in the Eurozone". Vox.
- Alessandrini, Pietro; Hallett, Andrew Hughes; Presbitero, Andrea F; Fratianni, Michele (May 16, 2012). "The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?". Vox.
- Mansori, Kash (September 22, 2011). "What Really Caused the Eurozone Crisis? Part 1". The Street Light.
- Mansori, Kash (September 27, 2011). "What Really Caused the Eurozone Crisis? Part 2". The Street Light.
- Mayer, Thomas (October 26, 2011). Böttcher, Barbara (ed.). "EU Monitor 88: Euroland's hidden balance-of-payments crisis" (PDF). Deutsche Bank Research. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 7, 2013. Retrieved June 19, 2013..
- "CESifo Forum Special Issue January 2012". ifo Group Munich. 2012. Archived from the originalon 2013-07-30. Retrieved 2013-05-20..
- ^ Pisani-Ferry, Jean; Merler, Silvia (April 2, 2012). "Sudden stops in the Eurozone". Vox. Accominotti, Olivier; Eichengreen, Barry (September 14, 2013). "The mother of all sudden stops: Capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919-1932". Vox.
- Economonitor.
- ^ Pilkington, Philip (September 2, 2013). "Playing Humpty Dumpty: More on the Definition of "Balance of Payments Crisis"". Fixing the Economists.
- Economonitor.
- Pilkington, Philip (August 31, 2013). "Can a country without a currency have a currency crisis?". Fixing the Economists.