Bellwether

American statistician and political scientist Edward Tufte and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:^[6]

• All-Or-Nothing Bellwether — states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Examples include the counties of Vigo County, IN; Lincoln County, MT; Van Buren County, AR; Logan County, AR; Eddy County, NM; and Ferry County, WA.
• Barometric Bellwether — a place that accurately reflects the national share of votes. Vigo County, Indiana, is one example.
• Swingometric Bellwether — a county that mirrors important swings or shifts in the national electorate. Examples include Sandoval County, NM, and Washoe County, NV.

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election.

Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.

The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

List of electorates described as bellwethers

Federal electoral divisions

Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the two-party-preferred vote.

Canada

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015, when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since 1984. Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district Peterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021, inclusive.

In Alberta, the provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

In Manitoba, the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in 1965. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of Rossmere, which has existed since 1969, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1977; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.

Germany

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then

Of the first vote constituencies (Erststimmen), the constituency of Pinneberg (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.^[7]

Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the

The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.^[10]

Ireland

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,^[11] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore.^[12] Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

Philippines

In the Philippines, the winner of the

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal

In every general election to the Portuguese National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

In every general, European Union, mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the Carnation Revolution, the Portuguese capital of Lisbon voted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.

Romania

Presidential elections

The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:

• Bucharest - 1 miss (2014), from 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
• Constanța - 1 miss (2014), from 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
• Alba - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Arad - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Bihor - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Brașov - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Cluj - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Sibiu - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Timiș - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
• Prahova - 2 misses (1996 and 2014), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
• Ilfov - 2 misses (2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
• Bistrița-Năsăud - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
• Satu Mare - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
• Sălaj - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
• Maramureș - 3 misses (1996, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
• Suceava - 3 misses (1996, 2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
• Caraș-Severin - 3 misses (2000, 2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).

Sweden

The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ('As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar, and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag.^[13] While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by 2022 this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general.^[14]

According to

By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to the left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 included Alingsås, Borlänge, Gävle and Karlskoga. These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins.^[17] In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results.

United Kingdom

Long-running bellwether constituencies

• Dartford has reflected the overall result at every general election since 1964.
• Portsmouth North, and part predecessor Portsmouth West, have reflected every overall result since 1966.
• Loughborough, Northampton North and Watford have reflected every result since the February 1974 election.
• Stevenage, and part predecessor Hertford and Stevenage, have reflected the overall result in every general election since the February 1974 election.
• Stourbridge, and part predecessor Halesowen and Stourbridge, has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979.
• Hendon, and part predecessor Hendon North, has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979.
• Keighley has been a bellwether since 1959, with two exceptions: in 1979 and 2017, the seat leant to the left, bucking the national result.
• Great Yarmouth, Pudsey, Gloucester and Worcester have reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979.
• Amber Valley, Calder Valley, Corby, Erewash, Harlow, Hastings and Rye, Norwich North, Reading West, South Derbyshire and Stafford and constituencies have reflected every result since 1983.
• Finchley and Golders Green, Nuneaton,^[18] and Thurrock have reflected the overall result in every general election since 1997.

Former bellwether constituencies

• Bristol North West and Lincoln reflected every result since the October 1974 election until 2017.
• Brentford and Isleworth had reflected the overall result from 1979 until 2015
  .
• Bury North has reflected the overall result from 1983, with the only exception being 2017.
• Basildon reflected every result from its creation in 1974 to its abolition in 2010.
• Southampton Test reflected every result from 1966 to 2010.
• Luton South (and its predecessors Luton East and Luton) had reflected the overall result from 1951 until 2010
  .
• Braintree has reflected the overall result from 1979, with the only exception being 2005.
• Gravesham (and its predecessor Gravesend) reflected the overall result from 1955 until 2005.

While not strictly a bellwether, Sunderland South (Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy.

London Borough elections

Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965, Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly) the most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result.

Scottish Parliament

The

As Labour has won the most seats since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour.

United States

The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; their streaks date back to only 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

• Ohio – 3 misses (1944, 1960, 2020) from 1896 on (90.6%, slightly "too Republican").
• Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (90.0%, slightly "too Democratic").
• New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (89.3%, slightly "too Democratic").
• Florida – 3 misses (1960, 1992, 2020) from 1928 on (87.5%, slightly "too Republican").

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:^[19]

• Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%)
• New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%)
• Illinois – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)
• Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)

Highest percentage of the current party system, 1980-2020

• Ohio – 1 miss (2020) (90.9%)
• Nevada – 1 miss (2016) (90.9%)
• New Mexico – 2 misses (2000, 2016) (81.8%)
• Florida – 2 misses (1992, 2020) (81.8%)
• Colorado – 2 misses (1996, 2016) (81.8%)
• New Hampshire – 2 misses (2004, 2016) (81.8%)
• Pennsylvania – 2 misses (2000, 2004) (81.8%)

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012^[20] include:

• Ohio – 2.2%
• New Mexico – 2.8%
• Illinois – 3.6%
• Missouri – 3.7%
• Delaware – 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century include:

• Delaware – Perfect from 1952 to 1996.^[21] As a result of a massive Democrat-strong growth in housing/population in New Castle County, Delaware (suburban Philadelphia, with the old industrial city of Wilmington), voters tend to lean strongly Democratic. That county had been a bellwether: 1936 to 1996.
• Arizona – Perfect from 1912 to 1956.
• North Dakota – Perfect from 1896 to 1936.
• Kansas – Perfect from 1900 to 1936.
• Missouri was often referred to as the Missouri bellwether as it produced the same outcome as the national results in the presidential election 96.2% of the time for the century between 1904 and 2004, only missing in 1956. It is considered to have lost its bellwether status with the 2008 presidential election.^[22]
• Washington – 1 miss from 1900 to 1956 (in 1912).
• Minnesota – 1 miss from 1920 to 1976 (in 1968).
• Texas – 1 miss from 1928 to 1988 (in 1968).
• Arkansas – 1 miss from 1960 to 2004 (in 1968).
• Idaho – 2 misses (1960, 1976) from 1904 to 1988.
• Tennessee – 2 misses (1924, 1960) from 1912 to 2004.
• New Jersey – 2 misses (1948, 1976) from 1920 to 1996.
• Virginia – 2 misses (1960, 1976) from 1928 to 1988. Was traditionally Republican at the time. Otherwise, the state was traditionally Democratic. Although the 2012 election was not included in this bellwether run, Virginia was actually the closest state to the national vote in 2012. Donald Trump, however, managed to win in the next election without Virginia.
• Illinois – 3 misses (1884, 1916, 1976) from 1852 to 1996, the most reliable in this period.^[23] As the Chicago metropolitan area shifted to become overwhelmingly Democratic, the state lost its bellwether status. No Republican had ever won the White House without taking Illinois prior to 2000.
• California – 3 misses (1912, 1960, 1976) from 1888 to 1996.
• Utah – 3 misses (1912, 1960, 1976) from 1900 to 1988.
• Wyoming – 3 misses (1944, 1960, 1976) from 1900 to 1988.
• Montana – 3 misses (1960, 1976, 1996) from 1904 to 2004.
• Kentucky – 3 misses (1920, 1952, 1960) from 1912 to 2004.
• Oklahoma – 3 misses (1924, 1960, 1976) from 1912 to 1988.
• New Hampshire – 3 misses (1948, 1960, 1976) from 1936 to 2000.
• Colorado – 3 misses (1960, 1976, 1996) from 1948 to 2012.
• 1964 to 2016
  .

• Pennsylvania – One miss from 1800 to 1880 (in 1824).
• Indiana – One miss from 1852 to 1912 (in 1876).
• Wisconsin – One miss from 1860 to 1912 (in 1884).
• New York – One miss from 1880 to 1944 (in 1916). It previously had a perfect streak from 1816 to 1852. Had the most electoral votes during the entire period.

The

It is varied in topography and larger than Metropolitan France, being considered as a microcosm of Brazil's society and economics as a whole.[28]

France

Since the substantial role began in 1958, under the French Fifth Republic, the president has since 1965 in the final (second) round always won: diminutive Ardèche and with about double its population each, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire.^[29][30] Together these account for more than 3 million residents. Each combines urban with rural and many touristic sites.

South Korea

Since the

Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019 two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Zaragoza and Huesca). The Autonomous Community of Aragon hosts these provinces. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.^[31] It has more than a million residents and combines much rural land with mountains and socially diverse urban communities.

Taiwan

From the first competitive multi-party elections in

See also

• As Maine goes, so goes the nation
• Bellwether trial
• Early adopter
• Harbinger
• Peer-mediated instruction
• Swing state
• Sentinel species
• Tipping-point state
• Will it play in Peoria?

References

Look up bellwether in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.