Disease X
Disease X is a
Rationale
In May 2015,
Since 2015, the shortlist of EIDs has been reviewed annually and originally included widely known diseases such as
In February 2018, after the "2018 R&D Blueprint" meeting in
At the 2018 announcement of the updated shortlist of blueprint priority diseases, the WHO said: "Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease".[5][6][16] John-Arne Røttingen, of the R&D Blueprint Special Advisory Group,[8] said: "History tells us that it is likely the next big outbreak will be something we have not seen before", and "It may seem strange to be adding an 'X' but the point is to make sure we prepare and plan flexibly in terms of vaccines and diagnostic tests. We want to see 'plug and play' platforms developed which will work for any or a wide number of diseases; systems that will allow us to create countermeasures at speed".[6][10] US expert Anthony Fauci said: "WHO recognizes it must 'nimbly move' and this involves creating platform technologies", and that to develop such platforms, WHO would have to research entire classes of viruses, highlighting flaviviruses. He added: "If you develop an understanding of the commonalities of those, you can respond more rapidly".[7]
Adoption
Jonathan D. Quick, the author of End of Epidemics, described the WHO's act of naming Disease X as "wise in terms of communicating risk", saying "panic and complacency are the hallmarks of the world's response to infectious diseases, with complacency currently in the ascendance".[17] Women's Health wrote that the establishment of the term "might seem like an uncool move designed to incite panic" but that the whole purpose of including it on the list was to "get it on people's radars".[18]
Richard Hatchett of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), wrote "It might sound like science fiction, but Disease X is something we must prepare for", noting that despite the success in controlling the 2014 Western African Ebola virus epidemic, strains of the disease had returned in 2018.[19] In February 2019, CEPI announced funding of US$34 million to the German-based CureVac biopharmaceutical company to develop an "RNA Printer prototype", that CEPI said could "prepare for rapid response to unknown pathogens (i.e., Disease X)".[20]
Parallels were drawn with the efforts by the
In September 2019, The Daily Telegraph reported on how Public Health England (PHE) had launched its own investigation for a potential Disease X in the United Kingdom from the diverse range of diseases reported in their health system; they noted that 12 novel diseases and/or viruses had been recorded by PHE in the last decade.[22]
In October 2019 in New York, the WHO's
In March 2020,
In April 2020, The Daily Telegraph described remdesivir, a drug being trialed to combat COVID-19, as an anti-viral that Gilead Sciences started working on a decade previously to treat a future Disease X.[26]
In August 2023, the UK Government announced the creation of a new research center, located on the Porton Down campus, which is tasked at researching pathogens with the potential to emerge as Disease X. Live viruses will be kept in specialist containment facilities in order to develop tests and potential vaccines within 100 days in case a new threat is identified.[27]
In January 2024, during the World Economic Forum's annual meeting, Disease X was once again discussed as being a potential threat following the COVID-19 pandemic.[28][29]
Strategy
A paper published in 2022 listed the following strategies in preparation for Disease X:[30]
- steps to reduce the risk of spillover and the consequent introduction and spread of a new disease in humans;
- improving disease surveillance in humans and animals, to rapidly detect and sequence the infectious agent;
- strengthening research programs to shorten the time lag between the development and production of medical countermeasures;
- rapid implementation of pharmaceutical (e.g. vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical (e.g. social distancing) measures, to contain a large-scale epidemic;
- develop international protocols to ensure fair distribution and global coverage of drugs and vaccines.[30]
Candidates
Zoonotic viruses
On the addition of Disease X in 2018, the WHO said it could come from many sources citing
COVID-19 (2019–present)
From the outset of the
Synthetic viruses/bioweapons
At the 2018 announcement of the updated shortlist of blueprint priority diseases, the media speculated that a future Disease X could be created intentionally as a
Bacterial infection
In September 2019, Public Health England (PHE) reported that the increasing
In popular culture
In 2018, the Museum of London ran an exhibition titled "Disease X: London's next epidemic?", hosted for the centenary of the Spanish flu epidemic from 1918.[39][40]
The term features in the title of several fiction books that involve global pandemic diseases, such as Disease (2020),[41] and Disease X: The Outbreak (2019).[42]
Conspiracy theories
Disease X has become the subject of several conspiracy theories, claiming that it may be a real disease, or conceived as a biological weapon, or engineered to create a planned epidemic.[43][44]
See also
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)
- Global Research Collaboration for Infectious Disease Preparedness (GloPIR-R)
- Synthetic virology
- Bioterrorism
References
- ^ a b c Daszak, Peter (22 February 2020). "We Knew Disease X Was Coming. It's Here Now". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 16 March 2020. Retrieved 8 March 2020.
- ^ a b c Gale, Jason (22 February 2020). "Coronavirus May Be 'Disease X' Health Experts Warned About". Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 5 March 2020. Retrieved 8 March 2020.
- ^ PMID 32060789.
- ^ a b c d e "List of Blueprint priority diseases". World Health Organization. 7 February 2018. Archived from the original on 1 March 2020. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Economist. Archivedfrom the original on 24 September 2022. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
By listing Disease X, an undetermined disease, the WHO is acknowledging that outbreaks do not always come from an identified source and that, as it admits, "a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease".
- ^ a b c d e f Barns, Tom (11 March 2018). "World Health Organisation fears new 'Disease X' could cause a global pandemic". The Independent. Archived from the original on 24 September 2022. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ a b Scutti, Susan (12 March 2018). "World Health Organization gets ready for 'Disease X'". CNN. Archived from the original on 2018-03-12. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ a b c d "R&D Blueprint - Scientific Advisory Group members". World Health Organization. Archived (PDF) from the original on 22 January 2024. Retrieved 21 March 2020.
- ^ Geneva, Switzerland. p. 17. Archived from the original(PDF) on 1 March 2020. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f Nuki, Paul; Shaikh, Alanna (10 March 2018). "Scientists put on alert for deadly new pathogen – 'Disease X'". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 20 March 2018.
- ^ "R&D Blueprint". World Health Organization. Archived from the original on 20 March 2020. Retrieved 21 March 2020.
- ^ "Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts (Published 2018, revision in progress 2023)". World Health Organization. Archived from the original on 25 October 2019. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
- from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
- ^ Lee, Bruce Y. (March 10, 2018). "Disease X is what may Become the Biggest Infectious Threat to our World". Forbes. Archived from the original on March 1, 2020. Retrieved March 11, 2018.
- ^ "WHO | List of Blueprint priority diseases". WHO. Archived from the original on 10 September 2017. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
- ^ Whittam Smith, Andreas (11 March 2018). "One hundred years on from the Spanish Flu, we are facing another major pandemic". The Independent. Archived from the original on 20 March 2020. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Gulland, Anne (15 May 2018). "Panic and complacency: how the world reacts to disease outbreaks". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 7 April 2020.
- ^ Miller, Korin (12 March 2018). "Disease X Might Cause The Next Big Global Epidemic". Women's Health. Archived from the original on 12 March 2018. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
- ^ Hatchett, Richard (15 May 2018). "It might sound like science fiction, but Disease X is something we must prepare for". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- PMID 31673694.
- ^ Shute, Joe (September 2019). "Virus hunters: Meet the scientists searching for Disease X". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Gulland, Anne (11 September 2019). "Revealed: Public Health England 'hot on the trail' of Disease X". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Alexander, Harriet (21 October 2019). "Disease X dummy run: World health experts prepare for a deadly pandemic and its fallout". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Hamblin, James (28 March 2020). "The Curve Is Not Flat Enough". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on 24 September 2022. Retrieved 28 March 2020.
- PMID 32197097.
- ^ Knapton, Sarah (1 April 2020). "Drug created to fight 'Disease X' over 10 years ago will be tested in battle against coronavirus". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 7 April 2020.
- from the original on 13 August 2023. Retrieved 13 August 2023.
- ^ "MSN". www.msn.com. Archived from the original on 2019-01-31. Retrieved 2024-01-19.
- ^ Singh, Simrin (2024-01-17). "World leaders are gathering to discuss Disease X. Here's what to know about the hypothetical pandemic. - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Archived from the original on 2024-01-19. Retrieved 2024-01-19.
- ^ PMID 36250806.
- from the original on 6 February 2020. Retrieved 18 April 2020.
- from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
- ^ McKie, Robin (6 February 2020). "Coronavirus: the huge unknowns". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 21 March 2020. Retrieved 21 March 2020.
This hope now looks forlorn with the sudden emergence of the respiratory disease Covid-19, which has rapidly acquired most of the characteristic of a Disease X.
- ^ "R&D Blueprint: Marion Koopmans (Biography)". World Health Organization. Archived (PDF) from the original on 22 January 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Mercer, David (25 February 2020). "Coronavirus outbreak could be feared 'Disease X', says World Health Organisation adviser". Sky News. Archived from the original on 14 March 2020. Retrieved 8 March 2020.
- ^ Aaro, David (27 February 2020). "What is Disease X?". Fox News. Archived from the original on 17 March 2020. Retrieved 8 March 2020.
- from the original on 2020-02-06. Retrieved 2020-01-18.
- ^ Campbell, Denis (11 September 2019). "Bacteria developing new ways to resist antibiotics, doctors warn". The Guardian. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ Addley, Esther (November 2018). "Queen Victoria's mourning dress among items in Disease X exhibition". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 5 October 2023. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ "Disease X: London's next epidemic?". Museum of London. Archived from the original on 5 October 2023. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ASIN B081XS6FN7.
- ISBN 978-1703667806.
- ^ Graham, Freya (2024-01-15). "'Disease X' is stoking the fire of right-wing conspiracies". Metro. Archived from the original on 2024-01-16. Retrieved 2024-01-16.
- ^ Swann, Sara. "PolitiFact - Conspiracy theorists falsely claim 'Disease X' is the next 'plandemic'". @politifact. Archived from the original on 2024-01-16. Retrieved 2024-01-16.
External links
- Blueprint priority diseases Archived 2020-03-01 at the Wayback Machine World Health Organization (6-7 February 2018)
- Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts World Health Organization (March 2018)
- (Video) What is Disease X World Health Organization (16 March 2018)
- The mystery viruses far worse than flu BBC News (November 2018)