Food security during the COVID-19 pandemic

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COVID-19 pandemic-related famines
)

COVID-19 pandemic–related famines
Map showing acute food insecurity forecasts for 2020
Acute food insecurity estimates for 2020 using the IPC scale
Date1 December 2019 (2019-12-01)–present
Duration4 years, 3 months and 3 weeks
Location Full list
travel restrictions
)

During the COVID-19 pandemic, food insecurity has intensified in many places – in the second quarter of 2020 there were multiple warnings of famine later in the year.[3][4] In an early report, the Nongovernmental Organization (NGO) Oxfam-International talks about "economic devastation"[5] while the lead-author of the UNU-WIDER report compared COVID-19 to a "poverty tsunami".[6] Others talk about "complete destitution",[7] "unprecedented crisis",[8] "natural disaster",[9] "threat of catastrophic global famine".[10] The decision of WHO on 11 March 2020, to qualify COVID as a pandemic, that is "an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people" also contributed to building this global-scale disaster narrative.[11]

Field evidence collected in more than 60 countries in the course of 2020[12] indicate however that while some disruptions (affecting the stability of the global food system) were reported at local (hoarding) and international (restrictions on exports) levels, those took place primarily during the early days/weeks of the pandemic (and the subsequent waves of lockdowns) and did not lead to any major episode of "global famine", thus invalidating the catastrophic scenario that some experts had initially conjectured.

In September 2020,

global food crises compounding already extreme price increases.[14][15][16][17][18]

Background

2019 Global Hunger Index by Severity

Locust infestations

The new locust wave spreading across Africa in June 2020 also sparked fears that supply shortages, especially in nations like Syria, Yemen, India and Ethiopia, might escalate the famine in their regions.[21][22][23][24][25]

COVID-19 pandemic

Following the international spread of the

2021-2022 global energy crisis
affecting the production of petrochemical fertilizer essential for food production.

A confirmed 6,881,955[27] people have died directly from COVID-19, but Oxfam indicated in their July 2020 report that when including those who have died as a result of lack of food, this number is considerably higher.[1] Oxfam projected in July 2020 that by the end of the year "12,000 people per day could die from COVID-19 linked hunger",[1] with the United Nations stating that a total of 265 million people face acute food insecurity – an increase of 135 million people as a result of the pandemic.[28][29]

The chief of the

New York Times and both the World Food Programme and the World Health Organization published statements noting the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on livelihoods and food security
.

Overall, review of evidence[33] shows that in 2020 the biggest impact of COVID-19 on the different dimensions of food security has been on food access and affordability -and not on food availability, as was initially feared by many experts. Food systems' main function as a food supplier has thus been successfully maintained, with the New York Times stating: "The unfolding tragedy falls short of a famine [...] Food remains widely available in most of the world, though prices have climbed in many countries. Rather, with the world economy expected to contract nearly 5 percent this year [...] hundreds of millions of people are suffering an intensifying crisis over how to secure their basic dietary needs.".[34][13][35]

Furthermore, there has been a significant disruption of various sectors, among the main implications of the crisis for food production would be: agriculture, animal industry, chemical supplies, value of land, markets and supply chains and jobs in agriculture.[36]

In sum, although the outcome of COVID-19 has been a sharp degradation in food security, the food system itself has not been the cause of that degradation; instead the origin of this food security crisis has been the contraction of the global economy.[33]

Armed conflicts

Several

refugees of the Syrian Civil War and the Venezuelan refugee crisis. As a result, these areas are more vulnerable to famine and food insecurity is high.[citation needed
]

Global Report on Food Crises

On 21 April, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that a famine "of biblical proportions" was expected in several parts of the world as a result of the pandemic.[37][38] The release of 2020 Global Report on Food Crises indicated that 55 countries were at risk,[39] with David Beasley estimating that in a worst-case scenario "about three dozen" countries would succumb to famine.[38][40]

The United Nations forecast that the following member states would have significant areas with poor food security categorised as under "stress" (IPC phase 2), "crisis" (IPC phase 3), "emergency" (IPC phase 4) or "critical emergency" (IPC phase 5) in 2020:[39]

It also raises alerts around:[39]