Civil war

The examples and perspective in this article may not represent a full view of the subject. Please improve this article and discuss the issue on the talk page. (May 2019)

Part of a series on
War (outline)
History Prehistoric Ancient Thermal Gunpowder Timeline Post-classical Castles Early modern Military revolution Pike and shot Napoleonic warfare Late modern Industrial warfare Fourth-gen warfare
Military Organization Command and control Defense ministry Army Navy Air force Marines Coast guard Space force Reserves Ranks Specialties: Staff Engineers Intel Recon Medical Police Diving Pilot Land units: Infantry Armor Cavalry Artillery Special forces Signal corps Naval units: Warships Submarines Aircraft carriers Landing craft Auxiliary ships Air units: Fighters Bombers Command Close air support Electronic-warfare Reconnaissance Combat systems: Fire-control system Fire-control radar Director (military) Combat information center Sonar Radar Historical: Ship gun fire-control Gun data computer Torpedo data computer Development: Basic training Military manoeuvrers Combat training
Battlespace Aerospace Aerial Airborne Space Land Cold-region Desert Fortification Jungle Mountain Urban Subterranean Tunnel Sea Amphibious Blue Brown Green Surface Underwater Seabed Cyber Information
Weapons Air defence Armor Artillery Barrage Biological Camouflage Cavalry Horses Air cavalry Chemical Combined arms Conventional Cyber Denial Disinformation Drone / Robot Electromagnetic Firearms Infantry Loitering Missile Music Nuclear Psychological Radiological Submarine Unconventional
Tactics List of military tactics Aerial Airlift Air assault Airbridge Airdrop Anti-aircraft Anti-sub Anti-tank Battle Cavalry Charge CQC Counterattack Counterinsurgency Convoy Defeat in detail Foxhole Drone Envelopment Formation Guerrilla Naval Rapid dominance Encirclement Investment Siege Swarm Screen Tactical objective Target saturation Trench Withdrawal
Operational Military operation Special Operations research Blitzkrieg Expeditionary Deep operation Maneuver Operational manoeuvre group Raid Covert Stay-behind
Strategy List of military strategies and concepts Military campaign Anti-access Attrition Commerce raiding Counter-offensive Culminating Defence in depth Fabian Empty fort Mosaic Deception Defensive Depth Goal Nuclear Naval Offensive Scorched earth
Grand strategy Asymmetric Blockade Broken-backed Class Cold war Colonial Conquest Containment Divide and conquer Economic Endemic Fleet in being Irregular Liberation Limited Network-centric New generation Perpetual Political Princely Proxy Religious Resource Strategic Succession Technology Theater Total war World war
Administrative Branch Policy Staff Training Service Sociology
Organization Area of responsibility Chain of command Command and control Doctrine Order of battle Principles of war Economy of force Medicine Engineers Intelligence Ranks Technology and equipment
Personnel Recruitment Conscription Draft evasion Mobilization Training Specialism Soldier Morale Volunteer Women Children Transgender Harassment Conscientious objector Conscription and sexism Counter-recruitment
Logistics History War economy Arms industry Materiel Supply-chain management Military–industrial complex Base MOB FOB Outpost
Science Power projection Loss-of-strength gradient Lanchester's laws Force multiplication Morale
Law Belligerent Occupation Armistice Ceasefire Court-martial Desertion Geneva Conventions Geneva Protocol Islamic rules Justice Lawful / Unlawful combatant Perfidy Regular / Irregular Jewish laws on war Right of conquest Right of self-defence Rules of engagement Self-determination Martial law War crime War and genocide War treason
Theory Air supremacy Appeasement Command of the sea Deterrence theory Full-spectrum dominance Overmatch Unrestricted warfare Just war theory Principles of war Philosophy of war Security dilemma Tripwire force Wargaming Simulation Exercises Combat effectiveness Center of gravity
Non-warfare Arms control Counter-insurgency Deterrence Disaster response Grey-zone Gunboat diplomacy Humanitarian aid Law enforcement Low-intensity conflict Military engineering Peacekeeping Peacebuilding Peace through strength Show of force
Culture Awards and decorations Battle cry Warrior War film Military science fiction War novel Anti-war movement Foot drill War song Uniform Wargame Militarization / Militarism Antimilitarism Camp follower
Books Seven Military Classics The Art of War De re militari Strategemata
Related Women in war War resister War studies Horses in warfare Wartime sexual violence Fifth column Mercenary Pacifism Privateer Private military company Soldiers are murderers
Lists Battles Military occupations Military terms Operations Sieges War crimes Wars Weapons Writers
v t e

A civil war

Most modern civil wars involve intervention by outside powers. According to Patrick M. Regan in his book Civil Wars and Foreign Powers (2000) about two thirds of the 138 intrastate conflicts between the end of World War II and 2000 saw international intervention.^[4]

A civil war is often a high-intensity conflict, often involving regular armed forces, that is sustained, organized and large-scale. Civil wars may result in large numbers of casualties and the consumption of significant resources.^[5]

Civil wars since the end of World War II have lasted on average just over four years, a dramatic rise from the one-and-a-half-year average of the 1900–1944 period. While the rate of emergence of new civil wars has been relatively steady since the mid-19th century, the increasing length of those wars has resulted in increasing numbers of wars ongoing at any one time. For example, there were no more than five civil wars underway simultaneously in the first half of the 20th century while there were over 20 concurrent civil wars close to the end of the

Based on the 1,000-casualties-per-year criterion, there were 213 civil wars from 1816 to 1997, 104 of which occurred from 1944 to 1997.[5] If one uses the less-stringent 1,000 casualties total criterion, there were over 90 civil wars between 1945 and 2007, with 20 ongoing civil wars as of 2007.^{[clarification needed][3]}

The Geneva Conventions do not specifically define the term "civil war"; nevertheless, they do outline the responsibilities of parties in "armed conflict not of an international character". This includes civil wars; however, no specific definition of civil war is provided in the text of the Conventions.

Nevertheless, the

According to a 2017 review study of civil war research, there are three prominent explanations for civil war: greed-based explanations which center on individuals' desire to maximize their profits, grievance-based explanations which center on conflict as a response to socioeconomic or political injustice, and opportunity-based explanations which center on factors that make it easier to engage in violent mobilization.[12] According to the study, the most influential explanation for civil war onset is the opportunity-based explanation by James Fearon and David Laitin in their 2003 American Political Science Review article.^[12]

Scholars investigating the cause of civil war are attracted by two opposing theories,

A comprehensive study of civil war was carried out by a team from the World Bank in the early 21st century. The study framework, which came to be called the Collier–Hoeffler Model, examined 78 five-year increments when civil war occurred from 1960 to 1999, as well as 1,167 five-year increments of "no civil war" for comparison, and subjected the data set to regression analysis to see the effect of various factors. The factors that were shown to have a statistically significant effect on the chance that a civil war would occur in any given five-year period were:^[14]

A high proportion of primary commodities in national exports significantly increases the risk of a conflict. A country at "peak danger", with commodities comprising 32% of gross domestic product, has a 22% risk of falling into civil war in a given five-year period, while a country with no primary commodity exports has a 1% risk. When disaggregated, only petroleum and non-petroleum groupings showed different results: a country with relatively low levels of dependence on petroleum exports is at slightly less risk, while a high level of dependence on oil as an export results in slightly more risk of a civil war than national dependence on another primary commodity. The authors of the study interpreted this as being the result of the ease by which primary commodities may be extorted or captured compared to other forms of wealth; for example, it is easy to capture and control the output of a gold mine or oil field compared to a sector of garment manufacturing or hospitality services.^[15]

A second source of finance is national diasporas, which can fund rebellions and insurgencies from abroad. The study found that statistically switching the size of a country's diaspora from the smallest found in the study to the largest resulted in a sixfold increase in the chance of a civil war.^[15]

Higher male secondary school enrollment, per capita income and economic growth rate all had significant effects on reducing the chance of civil war. Specifically, a male secondary school enrollment 10% above the average reduced the chance of a conflict by about 3%, while a growth rate 1% higher than the study average resulted in a decline in the chance of a civil war of about 1%. The study interpreted these three factors as proxies for earnings forgone by rebellion, and therefore that lower forgone earnings encourage rebellion.^[15] Phrased another way: young males (who make up the vast majority of combatants in civil wars) are less likely to join a rebellion if they are getting an education or have a comfortable salary, and can reasonably assume that they will prosper in the future.^[16]

Low per capita income has also been proposed as a cause for grievance, prompting armed rebellion.^[17][18] However, for this to be true, one would expect economic inequality to also be a significant factor in rebellions, which it is not. The study therefore concluded that the economic model of opportunity cost better explained the findings.^[14]

Most proxies for "grievance"—the theory that civil wars begin because of issues of identity, rather than economics—were statistically insignificant, including economic equality, political rights, ethnic polarization and religious fractionalization. Only ethnic dominance, the case where the largest ethnic group comprises a majority of the population, increased the risk of civil war. A country characterized by ethnic dominance has nearly twice the chance of a civil war. However, the combined effects of ethnic and religious fractionalization, i.e. the greater chance that any two randomly chosen people will be from separate ethnic or religious groups, the less chance of a civil war, were also significant and positive, as long as the country avoided ethnic dominance. The study interpreted this as stating that minority groups are more likely to rebel if they feel that they are being dominated, but that rebellions are more likely to occur the more homogeneous the population and thus more cohesive the rebels. These two factors may thus be seen as mitigating each other in many cases.^[19]

David Keen, a professor at the Development Studies Institute at the London School of Economics is one of the major critics of greed vs. grievance theory, defined primarily by Paul Collier, and argues the point that a conflict, although he cannot define it, cannot be pinpointed to simply one motive.^[20] He believes that conflicts are much more complex and thus should not be analyzed through simplified methods. He disagrees with the quantitative research methods of Collier and believes a stronger emphasis should be put on personal data and human perspective of the people in conflict.

Beyond Keen, several other authors have introduced works that either disprove greed vs. grievance theory with empirical data, or dismiss its ultimate conclusion. Authors such as Cristina Bodea and Ibrahim Elbadawi, who co-wrote the entry, "Riots, coups and civil war: Revisiting the greed and grievance debate", argue that empirical data can disprove many of the proponents of greed theory and make the idea "irrelevant".^[21] They examine a myriad of factors and conclude that too many factors come into play with conflict, which cannot be confined to simply greed or grievance.

Anthony Vinci makes a strong argument that "fungible concept of power and the primary motivation of survival provide superior explanations of armed group motivation and, more broadly, the conduct of internal conflicts".^[22]

James Fearon and David Laitin find that ethnic and religious diversity does not make civil war more likely.^[23] They instead find that factors that make it easier for rebels to recruit foot soldiers and sustain insurgencies, such as "poverty—which marks financially & bureaucratically weak states and also favors rebel recruitment—political instability, rough terrain, and large populations" make civil wars more likely.^[23]

Such research finds that civil wars happen because the state is weak; both authoritarian and democratic states can be stable if they have the financial and military capacity to put down rebellions.^[24]

Some scholars, such as

Michael Bleaney, Professor of International Economics at the University of Nottingham, published a 2009 paper titled Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars: A Review of the Evidence, which tested numerous variables for their relationship to civil war outbreak with different datasets, including that utilized by Fearon and Laitin. Bleaney concluded that neither ethnoreligious diversity, as measured by fractionalization, nor another variable, ethnic polarization, defined as the extent to which individuals in a population are distributed across different ethnic groups, were "a sufficient measure of diversity as it affects the probability of conflict."^[28]

In a state torn by civil war, the contesting powers often do not have the ability to commit or the trust to believe in the other side's commitment to put an end to war.^[29] When considering a peace agreement, the involved parties are aware of the high incentives to withdraw once one of them has taken an action that weakens their military, political or economical power. Commitment problems may deter a lasting peace agreement as the powers in question are aware that neither of them is able to commit to their end of the bargain in the future.^[30] States are often unable to escape conflict traps (recurring civil war conflicts) due to the lack of strong political and legal institutions that motivate bargaining, settle disputes, and enforce peace settlements.^[31]

Political scientist Barbara F. Walter suggests that most contemporary civil wars are actually repeats of earlier civil wars that often arise when leaders are not accountable to the public, when there is poor public participation in politics, and when there is a lack of transparency of information between the executives and the public. Walter argues that when these issues are properly reversed, they act as political and legal restraints on executive power forcing the established government to better serve the people. Additionally, these political and legal restraints create a standardized avenue to influence government and increase the commitment credibility of established peace treaties. It is the strength of a nation's institutionalization and good governance—not the presence of democracy nor the poverty level—that is the number one indicator of the chance of a repeat civil war, according to Walter.^[31]

High levels of population dispersion and, to a lesser extent, the presence of mountainous terrain, increased the chance of conflict. Both of these factors favor rebels, as a population dispersed outward toward the borders is harder to control than one concentrated in a central region, while mountains offer terrain where rebels can seek sanctuary.^[15] Rough terrain was highlighted as one of the more important factors in a 2006 systematic review.^[24]

The various factors contributing to the risk of civil war rise increase with population size. The risk of a civil war rises approximately proportionately with the size of a country's population.^[14]

There is a correlation between

While there is a supposed negative correlation between absolute welfare levels and the probability of civil war outbreak, relative deprivation may actually be a more pertinent possible cause. Historically, higher inequality levels led to higher civil war probability. Since colonial rule or population size are known to increase civil war risk, also, one may conclude that "the discontent of the colonized, caused by the creation of borders across tribal lines and bad treatment by the colonizers"^[35] is one important cause of civil conflicts.^[35]

The more time that has elapsed since the last civil war, the less likely it is that a conflict will recur. The study had two possible explanations for this: one opportunity-based and the other grievance-based. The elapsed time may represent the depreciation of whatever capital the rebellion was fought over and thus increase the opportunity cost of restarting the conflict. Alternatively, elapsed time may represent the gradual process of healing of old hatreds. The study found that the presence of a diaspora substantially reduced the positive effect of time, as the funding from diasporas offsets the depreciation of rebellion-specific capital.^[19]

Ann Hironaka, author of Neverending Wars, divides the modern history of civil wars into the pre-19th century, 19th century to early 20th century, and late 20th century. In 19th-century Europe, the length of civil wars fell significantly, largely due to the nature of the conflicts as battles for the power center of the state, the strength of centralized governments, and the normally quick and decisive intervention by other states to support the government. Following World War II the duration of civil wars grew past the norm of the pre-19th century, largely due to weakness of the many postcolonial states and the intervention by major powers on both sides of conflict. The most obvious commonality to civil wars are that they occur in fragile states.^[40]

Civil wars in the 19th century and in the early 20th century tended to be short; civil wars between 1900 and 1944 lasted on average one and a half years.^[41] The state itself formed the obvious center of authority in the majority of cases, and the civil wars were thus fought for control of the state. This meant that whoever had control of the capital and the military could normally crush resistance. A rebellion which failed to quickly seize the capital and control of the military for itself normally found itself doomed to rapid destruction. For example, the fighting associated with the 1871 Paris Commune occurred almost entirely in Paris, and ended quickly once the military sided with the government^[42] at Versailles and conquered Paris.

The power of non-state actors resulted in a lower value placed on

The two major global ideologies, monarchism and democracy, led to several civil wars. However, a bi-polar world, divided between the two ideologies, did not develop, largely due to the dominance of monarchists through most of the period. The monarchists would thus normally intervene in other countries to stop democratic movements taking control and forming democratic governments, which were seen by monarchists as being both dangerous and unpredictable. The Great Powers (defined in the 1815 Congress of Vienna as the United Kingdom, Habsburg Austria, Prussia, France, and Russia) would frequently coordinate interventions in other nations' civil wars, nearly always on the side of the incumbent government. Given the military strength of the Great Powers, these interventions nearly always proved decisive and quickly ended the civil wars.^[44]

There were several exceptions from the general rule of quick civil wars during this period. The American Civil War (1861–1865) was unusual for at least two reasons: it was fought around regional identities as well as political ideologies, and it ended through a war of attrition, rather than with a decisive battle over control of the capital, as was the norm. The Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) proved exceptional because both sides in the struggle received support from intervening great powers: Germany, Italy, and Portugal supported opposition leader Francisco Franco, while France and the Soviet Union supported the government^[45] (see proxy war).

In the 1990s, about twenty civil wars were occurring concurrently during an average year, a rate about ten times the historical average since the 19th century. However, the rate of new civil wars had not increased appreciably; the drastic rise in the number of ongoing wars after World War II was a result of the tripling of the average duration of civil wars to over four years.^[46] This increase was a result of the increased number of states, the fragility of states formed after 1945, the decline in interstate war, and the Cold War rivalry.^[47]

Following World War II, the major European powers divested themselves of their colonies at an increasing rate: the number of ex-colonial states jumped from about 30 to almost 120 after the war. The rate of state formation leveled off in the 1980s, at which point few colonies remained.^[48] More states also meant more states in which to have long civil wars. Hironaka statistically measures the impact of the increased number of ex-colonial states as increasing the post-World War II incidence of civil wars by +165% over the pre-1945 number.^[49]

While the new ex-colonial states appeared to follow the blueprint of the idealized state—centralized government, territory enclosed by defined borders, and citizenry with defined rights—as well as accessories such as a national flag, an anthem, a seat at the United Nations and an official economic policy, they were in actuality far weaker than the Western states they were modeled after.^[50] In Western states, the structure of governments closely matched states' actual capabilities, which had been arduously developed over centuries. The development of strong administrative structures, in particular those related to extraction of taxes, is closely associated with the intense warfare between predatory European states in the 17th and 18th centuries, or in Charles Tilly's famous formulation: "War made the state and the state made war".^[51] For example, the formation of the modern states of Germany and Italy in the 19th century is closely associated with the wars of expansion and consolidation led by Prussia and Sardinia-Piedmont, respectively.^[51] The Western process of forming effective and impersonal bureaucracies, developing efficient tax systems, and integrating national territory continued into the 20th century. Nevertheless, Western states that survived into the latter half of the 20th century were considered "strong" by simple reason that they had managed to develop the institutional structures and military capability required to survive predation by their fellow states.

In sharp contrast, decolonization was an entirely different process of state formation. Most imperial powers had not foreseen a need to prepare their colonies for independence; for example, Britain had given limited self-rule to India and Sri Lanka, while treating British Somaliland as little more than a trading post, while all major decisions for French colonies were made in Paris and Belgium prohibited any self-government up until it suddenly granted independence to its colonies in 1960. Like Western states of previous centuries, the new ex-colonies lacked autonomous bureaucracies, which would make decisions based on the benefit to society as a whole, rather than respond to corruption and nepotism to favor a particular interest group. In such a situation, factions manipulate the state to benefit themselves or, alternatively, state leaders use the bureaucracy to further their own self-interest. The lack of credible governance was compounded by the fact that most colonies were economic loss-makers at independence, lacking both a productive economic base and a taxation system to effectively extract resources from economic activity. Among the rare states profitable at decolonization was India, to which scholars credibly argue that Uganda, Malaysia and Angola may be included. Neither did imperial powers make territorial integration a priority, and may have discouraged nascent nationalism as a danger to their rule. Many newly independent states thus found themselves impoverished, with minimal administrative capacity in a fragmented society, while faced with the expectation of immediately meeting the demands of a modern state.^[52] Such states are considered "weak" or "fragile". The "strong"-"weak" categorization is not the same as "Western"-"non-Western", as some Latin American states like Argentina and Brazil and Middle Eastern states like Egypt and Israel are considered to have "strong" administrative structures and economic infrastructure.^[53]

Historically, the international community would have targeted weak states for territorial absorption or colonial domination or, alternatively, such states would fragment into pieces small enough to be effectively administered and secured by a local power. However, international norms towards sovereignty changed in the wake of World War II in ways that support and maintain the existence of weak states. Weak states are given

The diplomatic and legal protection given by the international community, as well as economic support to weak governments and discouragement of secession, thus had the unintended effect of encouraging civil wars.

Interventions by outside powers

There has been an enormous amount of international intervention in civil wars since 1945 that some have argued served to extend wars. According to

great powers, had always felt no compunction in intervening in civil wars that affected their interests, while distant regional powers such as the United States could declare the interventionist Monroe Doctrine

of 1821 for events in its Central American "backyard". However, the large population of weak states after 1945 allowed intervention by former colonial powers, regional powers and neighboring states who themselves often had scarce resources.

Effectiveness of intervention

The effectiveness of intervention is widely debated, in part because the data suffers from selection bias; as Fortna has argued, peacekeepers select themselves into difficult cases.[56] When controlling for this effect, Forta holds that peacekeeping is resoundingly successful in shortening wars. However, other scholars disagree. Knaus and Stewart are extremely skeptical as to the effectiveness of interventions, holding that they can only work when they are performed with extreme caution and sensitivity to context, a strategy they label 'principled incrementalism'. Few interventions, for them, have demonstrated such an approach.^[57] Other scholars offer more specific criticisms; Dube and Naidu, for instance, show that US military aid, a less conventional form of intervention, seems to be siphoned off to paramilitaries thus exacerbating violence.^[58] Weinstein holds more generally that interventions might disrupt processes of 'autonomous recovery' whereby civil war contributes to state-building.^[59]

On average, a civil war with interstate intervention was 300% longer than those without. When disaggregated, a civil war with intervention on only one side is 156% longer, while when intervention occurs on both sides the average civil war is longer by an additional 92%. If one of the intervening states was a superpower, a civil war is a further 72% longer; a conflict such as the Angolan Civil War, in which there is two-sided foreign intervention, including by a superpower (actually, two superpowers in the case of Angola), would be 538% longer on average than a civil war without any international intervention.^[60]

Effect of the Cold War

The

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

.

In some cases, superpowers would superimpose Cold War ideology onto local conflicts, while in others local actors using Cold War ideology would attract the attention of a superpower to obtain support. A notable example is the Greek Civil War (1946–1949), which erupted shortly after the end of World War II. This conflict saw the communist-dominated Democratic Army of Greece, supported by Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, opposing the Kingdom of Greece, which was backed by the United Kingdom and the United States under the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan.

Using a separate statistical evaluation than used above for interventions, civil wars that included pro- or anti-communist forces lasted 141% longer than the average non-Cold War conflict, while a Cold War civil war that attracted superpower intervention resulted in wars typically lasting over three times as long as other civil wars. Conversely, the end of the Cold War marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 resulted in a reduction in the duration of Cold War civil wars of 92% or, phrased another way, a roughly ten-fold increase in the rate of resolution of Cold War civil wars. Lengthy Cold War-associated civil conflicts that ground to a halt include the wars of Guatemala (1960–1996), El Salvador (1979–1991) and Nicaragua (1970–1990).^[61]

Post-2003

According to Barbara F. Walter, post-2003 civil wars are different from previous civil wars in that most are situated in Muslim-majority countries; most of the rebel groups espouse radical Islamist ideas and goals; and most of these radical groups pursue transnational rather than national aims.^[62] She attributes this shift to changes in information technology, especially the advent of the Web 2.0 in the early 2000s.^[62]

Effects

Civil wars often have severe economic consequences: two studies estimate that each year of civil war reduces a country's

GDP growth by about 2%. It also has a regional effect, reducing the GDP growth of neighboring countries. Civil wars also have the potential to lock the country in a conflict trap, where each conflict increases the likelihood of future conflict.^[63]

See also

• Frozen conflict
• Insurgency
• List of civil wars
• List of wars of independence
• The Logic of Violence in Civil War
• Wars of national liberation

Notes

1. ^ Legally known as non-international armed conflict (NIAC)^[1] and also known as an intrastate war in war studies^[2]

References

1. ^ Higgins, Noelle (2019). "The Geneva Conventions and Non-International Armed Conflicts". Revisiting the Geneva Conventions: 1949-2019. Brill. pp. 168–189.
2. S2CID 56449614. Archived
   from the original on 5 January 2017. Retrieved 5 January 2017.
3. ^ ^{a b c d} James Fearon, "Iraq's Civil War" Archived 2007-03-17 at the Wayback Machine in Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007. For further discussion on civil war classification, see the section "Formal classification".
4. ^ ^{a b} Ikenberry, G. John (2009-01-28). "Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict". Foreign Affairs. 79 (July/August 2000). Archived from the original on 2021-03-08. Retrieved 2015-11-06.
5. ^
   ISBN 0-674-01532-0
   .
6. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 1–2, 4–5.
7. ISBN 978-0199566020. Archived
   from the original on 2012-12-31.
8. S2CID 14897960. Archived
   from the original on 2021-11-09. Retrieved 2021-11-09.
9. ^ Edward Wong, "A Matter of Definition: What Makes a Civil War, and Who Declares It So?" Archived 2021-05-23 at the Wayback Machine New York Times. November 26, 2006
10. ^ Final Record of the Diplomatic Conference of Geneva of 1949, (Volume II-B, p. 121)
11. ^ See also the International Committee of the Red Cross commentary Archived 2016-03-22 at the Wayback Machine on Third 1949 Geneva Convention, Article III, Section "A. Cases of armed conflict" for the ICRC's reading of the definition and a listing of proposed alternative wording
12. ^
    S2CID 149212588. Archived
    (PDF) from the original on 2018-07-23.
13. ^ See, for example, Hironaka 2005, pp. 9–10, and Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler and Nicholas Sambanis, "The Collier-Hoeffler Model of Civil War Onset and the Case Study Project Research Design," in Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 13
14. ^ ^{a b c} Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 17
15. ^ ^{a b c d} Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 16
16. ^ Henrik Urdal – A CLASH OF GENERATIONS? YOUTH BULGES AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE Archived 2017-07-03 at the Wayback Machine – un.org. Retrieved 28 December 2012.
17. JSTOR 10.1086/426881
    .
18. ISSN 0022-3433
    .
19. ^ ^{a b} Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 18
20. ^ David Keen. "Complex Emergencies: David Keen Responds" African Arguments: Royal African Society.
21. ^ Christina Bodea. "Riots, coups and civil war : revisiting the greed and grievance debate." Policy Research 1 (2007).
22. ^ Anthony Vinci. "Greed-Grievance Reconsidered: The Role of Power and Survival in the Motivation of Armed Groups." Civil Wars "8(1)" (2007): 35.
23. ^
    S2CID 8303905.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of November 2024 (link
    )
24. ^ ^{a b} Richard Hanania (29 Oct 2020). "Americans hate each other. But we aren't headed for civil war". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 19 April 2021. Retrieved 15 April 2021.
25. ^
    ISSN 0003-0554
    .
26. ISSN 0022-0027
    .
27. ISSN 0003-0554
    .
28. ^ Bleaney, Michael (2009). "Incidence, onset and duration of civil wars: A review of the evidence" (PDF). CREDIT Research Paper. 09 (8): 29.
29. ^ Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson. 2005. "Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth". Handbook of Economic Growth 1: 385–472.
30. ^ Mattes, M., & Savun, B. (2009). "Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problems and Agreement Design Archived 2018-09-08 at the Wayback Machine". International Studies Quarterly 53(3), 737–759.
31. ^
    S2CID 154632359
    .
32. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015628
    .
33. S2CID 18168622
    .
34. S2CID 3460450. Archived
    (PDF) from the original on 2020-03-10.
35. ^
    doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.06.007
    .
36. S2CID 1492307
    .
37. doi:10.1017/S0022381610001003. Archived
    (PDF) from the original on 2017-09-21. Retrieved 2017-10-24.
38. ISBN 9780521010504
    .
39. ISBN 9780521010504
    .
40. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 28.
41. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 1.
42. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 28–29.
43. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 29.
44. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 30.
45. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 31.
46. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 1, 4–5.
47. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 7 & 23.
48. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 36.
49. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 40.
50. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 54.
51. ^ ^{a b c} Hironaka, 2005, p. 6
52. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 59–61.
53. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 56.
54. ^ Hironaka 2005, p. 16.
55. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 37–40.
56. OCLC 785583130
    .
57. OCLC 916002160
    .
58. S2CID 220454361
    .
59. ^ Weinstein, Jeremy (April 2005). "Autonomous Recovery and International Intervention in Comparative Perspective, CGDEV Working Paper" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-05-28.
60. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 50–51.
61. ^ Hironaka 2005, pp. 48–50.
62. ^
    doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921
    .
63. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064057
    .

Further reading

• Ali, Taisier Mohamed Ahmed and Robert O. Matthews, eds. Civil Wars in Africa: roots and resolution (1999), 322 pages
• Mats Berdal and David M. Malone, Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (Lynne Rienner, 2000).
• Paul Collier, Breaking the Conflict Trap: civil war and development policy World Bank (2003) – 320 pages
• ISBN 978-0-8213-6047-7
  .
• Collier, Paul; Sambanis, Nicholas, eds. (2005). Understanding Civil War:Evidence and Analysis. Vol. 2: Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
  ISBN 978-0-8213-6049-1
  .
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2001). ""New" and "Old" Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction?". World Politics. 54: 99–118.
  S2CID 144164335
  .
• David Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds. The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation (Princeton University Press, 1996).
• Licklider, Roy (1995). "The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993". American Political Science Review. 89 (3): 681–690.
  S2CID 144717008
  .
• Mack, Andrew (2002). "Civil War: Academic Research and the Policy Community". Journal of Peace Research. 39 (5): 515–525.
  S2CID 145668725
  .
• Mason, T. David; Fett, Patrick J. (1996). "How Civil Wars End". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 40 (4): 546–568.
  S2CID 155874771
  .
• Stanley G. Payne, Civil War in Europe, 1905–1949 (2011). internal insurrections in Russia, Spain, Greece, Yugoslavia, and other countries; online
• Patrick M. Regan. Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict (2000) 172 pages
• Stephen John and others., eds. Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements (2002), 729 pages
• Monica Duffy Toft, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory (Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003).
  ISBN 0-691-12383-7
  .
• Barbara F. Walter (2022). How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them. Crown.
  ISBN 978-0593137789
  .
• Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars (Princeton University Press, 2002),
• Elisabeth Jean Wood; "Civil Wars: What We Don't Know," Global Governance, Vol. 9, 2003 pp 247+ online version Archived 2012-06-28 at the Wayback Machine

Review articles of civil war research

• Lars-Erik Cederman; Manuel Vogt (2017). "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War". Journal of Conflict Resolution
• Blattman, Christopher; Miguel, Edward (2010). "Civil War". Journal of Economic Literature. 48: 3–57.
  doi:10.1257/jel.48.1.3
  .
• Kalyvas Stathis N. 2007. "Civil Wars." Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics, edited by Boix Carles, Stokes Susan C., 416–434. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2024). "Conflict: Trajectories and Challenges". World Politics.
• Kalyvas, Stathis; Straus, Scott (2020). "Stathis Kalyvas on 20 years of studying political violence". Violence: An International Journal. 1 (2): 389–407.
• Sambanis, Nicholas (2002). "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War". Defence and Peace Economics. 13 (3): 215–243.
  S2CID 153678074
  .

External links

Look up civil, civilian, or civil war in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Civil wars.

• Royal Air Force Doctrine – The Nature of War and Armed Conflict
• "What makes a civil war?", BBC News, 20 April 2006