Climate change in Texas
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The climate in Texas is changing partially due to global warming and rising trends in greenhouse gas emissions.[1] As of 2016, most area of Texas had already warmed by 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) since the previous century because of greenhouse gas emissions by the United States and other countries.[1] Texas is expected to experience a wide range of environmental impacts from climate change in the United States, including rising sea levels, more frequent extreme weather events, and increasing pressure on water resources.[1]
Texas was ranked second by GDP across the U.S. in 2020 and had a fast growing economy.[3] According to U.S. Energy Information Administration, a large portion of Texas economic growth from 2005 to 2016 came from conventional energy production.[4]
Although Texas has a long history of conventional energy production (e.g., petroleum and natural gas), the renewable energy industry has also been rapidly growing in Texas. Solar industry jobs have been increasing and wind farms have been built in West Texas in recent years.[5][6] Considering the advantages such as sunny weather, flat land and friendly business climate, Texas has high potential to develop more renewable energy in the future.[6] In addition, there are emerging local and regional actions to address climate change across Texas. For example, Austin, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio initiated Climate Action Plans in recent years.[7][8][9][10] The government agencies also implemented programs such as Texas Emissions Reduction Plan and Innovative Energy Demonstration Program to promote the use of renewable energy and climate education in Texas.
Emissions and energy
In the U.S., Texas was ranked first in terms of total carbon dioxide emissions in 2017 and total energy production in 2018.[11][12] As of February 2020, Texas's energy mix included 18,705,000 kWh natural gas, 4,823,000 kWh coal, 3,548,000 kWh nuclear and 8,317,000 kWh renewables.[13] Half of the energy consumed in Texas was from refineries and petrochemical plants.[13]
Texas accounted for 41% of
Climate change impacts
Additionally, sea level rise along the Texas coastline is likely to be greater than the projected global sea level rise (i.e., 1–4 feet) to the end of this century, which makes the coastal region more susceptible to storm surges.[15] Extreme weather events like hurricanes might be more intense which can make much larger losses and threaten the local residents.[1]
There is also an increasing trend of both frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation with light or normal rains less likely to happen in the future, which could lead to higher soil moisture stress in Texas.[15][16]
Extreme weather
Overall, the amount of
In 2020, high temperatures and lack of rainfall led to a drought with D3 (extreme) and D4 (exceptional) categories in Texas as well as many other Western and Central states. The Western/Central Drought and Heatwave (event name) lasted through the months of June to December and resulted in 45 deaths as well as an estimated cost of 4.5 billion dollars.[19]
In February 2021, Texas experienced terrible snowstorms and wide-range unexpected power outages that was uncommon in history, which might have been caused by climate change based on related researches.[20]
According to the
Hurricane Harvey
In August 2017,
The results from a series of downscaling simulations indicated that around one-fifth of the total extreme precipitation over southeast Texas during the event could be attributed to climate warming that happened after 1980.[25] Moreover, the impacts from urbanization and climate change to flooding in Houston during Harvey was investigated and the model simulation results indicated that climate change could elevate the peak streamflow by one-fifth.[26] It was also found that the influence of climate change on flooding can be significantly amplified by the fast-expanding urban areas around Houston.[26]
Coastal changes
Sea level is rapidly rising in many parts of the Texas coastal region because of both sinking land due to groundwater pumping and climate change.[1][15] More storm surge events are expected to happen along the coastal region.[15] These changes and more extreme hurricanes indicate that not only Texas's coastal infrastructure including public infrastructure, fossil fuel infrastructure , and other housing infrastructure will be endangered but also the residents' life will be threatened.[1] In addition, the coastal ecosystem is also expected to be at risk due to the potential change of salinity gradient in coastal wetland areas.[15]
Water resources
There are 15 major river basins lying partly or entirely within Texas.
Surface water
In a warmer and drier climate condition, open water evaporation is expected to be enhanced which can lead to the shrink of lakes, rivers, and streams as well as loss of reservoir storage.[28][27] Meanwhile, the increasing extreme weathers and the widely varied Texas' weather make it more challenging for the local water resources managers and regional water planners to manage the available surface water resources.
Groundwater
In general, Texas groundwater storage is projected to decrease due to the declining groundwater recharging rate under climate change.[29] A warmer and drier climate can lead to larger evaporation as well as less water for recharging groundwater aquifers especially in Western Texas where aquifers were already under significant pressure.[1]
Meanwhile, in a warmer climate, drier soil due to increasing evaporation is expected to lower the efficiency of agricultural irrigation, which might increase the groundwater pumping for irrigation. Furthermore, to feed the rapidly growing population in Texas, the potential stress on groundwater can have negative impacts on aquifer yield and surface water resources.[27] Therefore, the aridity and water scarcity is very likely to be exacerbated across Texas in the future.
By the end of this century, the Edwards Aquifer is expected to experience obvious decrease (around 20% - 30%) in recharge while the water demand would rise significantly in this region due to the fast population growth, which could leads to unprecedently reduced streamflow at local spring system.[30][27]
Wildfires
According to the EPA, "higher temperatures and drought are likely to increase the severity, frequency, and extent of wildfires."[31] According to Wes Moorehead, fire chief at the Texas A&M Forest Service, "Wildfire in Texas does seem to be a growing problem. We see more and more wildfires, it seems like, every year."[32] As of 2022, Texas has the second highest wildfire risk in the United States.[32] According to research by Texas A&M University, climate and weather trends in Texas are increasing the wildfire risk, although perhaps less so in West Texas.[33][34]
Action to address climate change
City action
Texas has the following
- Alamo Area Clean Cities[35]
- Loan Star Clean Fuels Alliance (Central Texas)
- Dallas–Fort Worth Clean Cities[36]
- Greater Houston Clean Cities[37]
Georgetown, Texas was powered 100% by renewable energy.[38]
Climate Action Plans
Austin
Houston
Dallas
San Antonio
San Antonio adopted the city's first Climate Action and Adaption Plan (CAAP) on October 17, 2019. As one of the fastest growing city in the U.S., San Antonio has been taking actions to reduce greenhouse gases and prepare for climate change.[42] To achieve goals of climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation, a report about CAAP was developed by the local government to promote sustainable development.[43][44][10]
Renewable energy
In general, Texas has a long history of conventional energy production (e.g., petroleum and natural gas) as well as a Republican-controlled state legislature. Unlike California, the majority of Texas legislature remains opposed to actions about addressing climate change.[6] For example, the Senate Bill 2069 aiming at developing a climate adaptation plan over Texas was not implemented because the hearing was not held.[6] However, the renewable energy industry has been rapidly growing in Texas. In 2016, there were around 7,000 solar industry jobs over Texas and the number of positions climbed to almost 10,000 in 2018.[6] The number of Texas solar industry jobs in 2018 is around twice as much as those in Illinois but still far behind California.[6] It indicates that Texas has high potential to develop more renewable energy in the future considering the advantages such as sunny weather, flat land and friendly business climate.[6]
Texas can reduce greenhouse gas by developing renewable energy production but also could meet challenges because wind and solar energy are highly dependent on weather and their production is non-continuous. The first challenge is the electricity supply-demand balance.[45] Solar irradiance is available during daytime and both solar and wind energy have daily and seasonal variability. The second challenge is the discrepancies of different regions (e.g., topography, land use, local operational decisions) over Texas, which can impact the renewable power generation and capacity.[46] In Texas, the total generation of these two energy production is expected to grow around 2040 to 2050 compared to the period from 1995 to 2005.[46] However, model results indicate that there are obvious spatial and temporal differences in the renewable energy distribution over Texas. Therefore, it is important to conduct studies using higher resolution data to facilitate the investigation of climate change influences on the potential of renewable power production in Texas.[46]
Wind power
Texas has been in the top-tier of wind energy production over the U.S. since 2000.[5] According to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), wind power accounted for at least 15.7 percent of the electricity generated in Texas during 2017. Wind power accounted for 17.4 percent of the electricity managed by ERCOT.[47][48] Some wind farms have been built in West Texas in recent decades.[49] The emerging wind farms not only reduced the air pollution but also benefited local land owners who leased or sold their land to the wind power generator as well as their neighborhood.[49] Also, the local land owners had higher net income than before partly due to the declined county property tax rates.[49] Moreover, the quality of local public schools has increased because of the immigration of higher educated people to the region.[49]
The transmission of wind power is one of the biggest challenge because the best wind source is
Grants
The Texas Emissions Reduction Plan (TERP) provides grants for alternative fuel and advanced technology demonstration and infrastructure projects. Under TERP, the New Technology Research and Development (NTRD) Program provides incentives to encourage and support research, development, and commercialization of technologies that reduce pollution in Texas.[51] The NTRD Program is administered by the Texas Environmental Research Consortium, with support from the Houston Advanced Research Center which focuses on scientific and engineering-related research about sustainable development.[52]
The Texas State Energy Conservation Office (SECO) researches and assists public and private entities in securing grants to encourage the use of alternative fuels.
See also
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "What Climate Change Means for Texas" (PDF). EPA. August 2016. EPA 430-F-16-045.
- ^ "File:Valero Three Rivers Refinery Texas 2020.jpg". Retrieved 2020-04-15.
- ^ Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Gross domestic product (GDP) by state (millions of current dollars)". Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ U.S Energy Information Administration. "Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by State, 2005–2016" (PDF). Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ S2CID 153951312.
- ^ S2CID 204422868.
- ^ a b "Houston Climate Action Plan" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Austin Community Climate Plan" (PDF).
- ^ a b c "Dallas Climate Action". Retrieved 2021-04-14.
- ^ a b "San Antonio, Texas Climate Action and Adaptation Plan - SA Climate Ready". Retrieved 2021-04-15.
- ^ "Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2017". U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ "Total Energy Production, 2018". U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ a b "Texas - State Energy Profile Overview - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)". U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved 2020-05-29.
- ^ "Texas - State Energy Profile Overview - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)". U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved 2020-05-29.
- ^ )
- doi:10.7930/j0j964j6. Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ a b "Hurricane Harvey". Retrieved 2021-04-15.
- ^ "File:Hurricane Harvey ESA382898.jpg". 25 August 2017. Retrieved 2021-04-15.
- ^ "Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Events | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)". NOAA.
- ^ "How did climate change cause the Texas snowstorm?". Retrieved 2021-04-16.
- ^ Nilsen, Ella (November 14, 2023). "No place in the US is safe from the climate crisis, but a new report shows where it's most severe". CNN.
- ^ Natsios, Andrew (March 2021). "Hurricane Harvey: Texas at Risk" (PDF).
- ISSN 1944-8007.
- ISSN 0021-9991.
- ^ ISSN 1748-9326.
- ^ ISSN 1748-9326.
- ^ ISSN 2328-4277.
- ISSN 0022-1694.
- .
- S2CID 133157858.
- ^ "What Climate Change Means for Texas" (PDF). EPA. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
- ^ a b Erdenesanaa, Delger (26 April 2022). "Texas' Firestorm Future". The Texas Observer. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
- ^ "Texas Extreme Weather Assessment and Projections Report". College of Geosciences, Texas A&M University. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
- ^ Nielsen-Gammon, J; Holman, S; Buley, A; Jorgensen, S; Escobedo, J; Ott, C; Dedrick, J; Van Fleet, A. "Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900- 2036: 2021 Update". Office of the State Climatologist, Texas A&M University. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
Weather and climate drivers of wildfire risk are projected to increase the risk of wildfires throughout the state, primarily due to increased rates of drying and increased fuel load. The increase in wildfire risk may not be as large in far West Texas where rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation may overcome the carbon dioxide fertilization effect and lead to less accumulation of fuels.
- ^ "Alamo Area Clean Cities Coalition | Alamo Area Council of Governments, TX". www.aacog.com. Retrieved 2021-04-06.
- ^ "Dallas–Fort Worth Clean Cities". dfwcleancities. Retrieved 2021-04-06.
- ^ "About Us – Houston-Galveston Clean Cities Coalition". Retrieved 2021-04-06.
- ^ "Why Georgetown is 100 percent renewable". Retrieved 2021-04-10.
- ^ "Climate Action Plan". Retrieved 2021-03-19.
- ^ a b c "Dallas Comprehensive Environmental and Climate Plan" (PDF). Retrieved 2021-04-14.
- ^ S2CID 155433505.
- ^ "CLIMATE ACTION & ADAPTATION". Retrieved 2020-04-15.
- ^ "SA CLIMATE READY: A PATHWAY FOR CLIMATE ACTION & ADAPTATION" (PDF). Retrieved 2021-04-15.
- ^ "Sustainability". Retrieved 2021-04-15.
- S2CID 197432681.
- ^ S2CID 226945815.
- ^ "ERCOT Quick Facts for 2017 published July 2018" (PDF). September 9, 2018.
- ^ "ERCOT Quick Facts for 2017 published February 2018" (PDF). February 1, 2018.
- ^ ISSN 0301-4215.
- ^ ISSN 0301-4215.
- ^ "New Technology Research and Development (NTRD)". Texas Environmental Research Consortium. Retrieved 2021-04-13.
- ^ "HARC". 11 August 2020. Retrieved 2021-04-13.
- ^ a b "STATE ENERGY CONSERVATION OFFICE". Retrieved 2021-04-13.
Further reading
- Schmandt, Jurgen (2012). Impact of global warming on Texas. Austin: University Of Texas Press. OCLC 19717267.
- U.S. Global Change Research Program (2018). "Southern Great Plains". Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II (Report). Washington, DC. p. 987–1035. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH23 - this chapter of the National Climate Assessment covers Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.