Climate variability and change
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Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.[1]
The climate system receives nearly all of its energy from the sun and radiates energy to outer space. The balance of incoming and outgoing energy and the passage of the energy through the climate system is Earth's energy budget. When the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, Earth's energy budget is positive and the climate system is warming. If more energy goes out, the energy budget is negative and Earth experiences cooling.
The energy moving through Earth's climate system finds expression in weather, varying on geographic scales and time. Long-term averages and variability of weather in a region constitute the region's climate. Such changes can be the result of "internal variability", when natural processes inherent to the various parts of the climate system alter the distribution of energy. Examples include variability in ocean basins such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Climate variability can also result from external forcing, when events outside of the climate system's components produce changes within the system. Examples include changes in solar output and volcanism.
Climate variability has consequences for sea level changes, plant life, and mass extinctions; it also affects human societies.
Terminology
Climate variability is the term to describe variations in the mean state and other characteristics of climate (such as chances or possibility of extreme weather, etc.) "on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events." Some of the variability does not appear to be caused by known systems and occurs at seemingly random times. Such variability is called random variability or noise. On the other hand, periodic variability occurs relatively regularly and in distinct modes of variability or climate patterns.[2]
The term climate change is often used to refer specifically to anthropogenic climate change. Anthropogenic climate change is caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.[3] Global warming became the dominant popular term in 1988, but within scientific journals global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels affect.[4]
A related term, climatic change, was proposed by the
Causes
On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the
Factors that can shape climate are called
Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond more slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others respond more quickly. An example of fast change is the atmospheric cooling after a volcanic eruption, when volcanic ash reflects sunlight. Thermal expansion of ocean water after atmospheric warming is slow, and can take thousands of years. A combination is also possible, e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the Arctic Ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water.
Climate variability can also occur due to internal processes. Internal unforced processes often involve changes in the distribution of energy in the ocean and atmosphere, for instance, changes in the thermohaline circulation.
Internal variability
Climatic changes due to internal variability sometimes occur in cycles or oscillations. For other types of natural climatic change, we cannot predict when it happens; the change is called random or stochastic.
Ocean-atmosphere variability
The ocean and atmosphere can work together to spontaneously generate internal climate variability that can persist for years to decades at a time.[17][18] These variations can affect global average surface temperature by redistributing heat between the deep ocean and the atmosphere[19][20] and/or by altering the cloud/water vapor/sea ice distribution which can affect the total energy budget of the Earth.[21][22]
Oscillations and cycles
A climate oscillation or climate cycle is any recurring cyclical
- the La Niña) tropical sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean with worldwide effects. It is a self-sustaining oscillation, whose mechanisms are well-studied.[24] ENSO is the most prominent known source of inter-annual variability in weather and climate around the world. The cycle occurs every two to seven years, with El Niño lasting nine months to two years within the longer term cycle.[25] The cold tongue of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not warming as fast as the rest of the ocean, due to increased upwelling of cold waters off the west coast of South America.[26][27]
- the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) – An eastward moving pattern of increased rainfall over the tropics with a period of 30 to 60 days, observed mainly over the Indian and Pacific Oceans.[28]
- the sea-level pressure (SLP) between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Stykkishólmur/Reykjavík, Iceland. Positive values of the index indicate stronger-than-average westerlies over the middle latitudes.[29]
- the Quasi-biennial oscillation – a well-understood oscillation in wind patterns in the stratosphere around the equator. Over a period of 28 months the dominant wind changes from easterly to westerly and back.[30]
- climate oscillation predicted by some climate models
- the Pacific decadal oscillation – The dominant pattern of sea surface variability in the North Pacific on a decadal scale. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs. It is thought not as a single phenomenon, but instead a combination of different physical processes.[31]
- the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) – Basin wide variability in the Pacific Ocean with a period between 20 and 30 years.[32]
- the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation – A pattern of variability in the North Atlantic of about 55 to 70 years, with effects on rainfall, droughts and hurricane frequency and intensity.[33]
- North African Monsoon, with a period of tens of thousands of years.[34]
- the Arctic oscillation (AO) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO) – The annular modes are naturally occurring, hemispheric-wide patterns of climate variability. On timescales of weeks to months they explain 20–30% of the variability in their respective hemispheres. The Northern Annular Mode or Arctic oscillation (AO) in the Northern Hemisphere, and the Southern Annular Mode or Antarctic oscillation (AAO) in the southern hemisphere. The annular modes have a strong influence on the temperature and precipitation of mid-to-high latitude land masses, such as Europe and Australia, by altering the average paths of storms. The NAO can be considered a regional index of the AO/NAM.[35] They are defined as the first EOF of sea level pressure or geopotential height from 20°N to 90°N (NAM) or 20°S to 90°S (SAM).
- Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles – occurring on roughly 1,500-year cycles during the Last Glacial Maximum
Ocean current changes
The oceanic aspects of climate variability can generate variability on centennial timescales due to the ocean having hundreds of times more mass than in the atmosphere, and thus very high thermal inertia. For example, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat in the world's oceans.
Ocean currents transport a lot of energy from the warm tropical regions to the colder polar regions. Changes occurring around the last ice age (in technical terms, the last
Life
Life affects climate through its role in the carbon and water cycles and through such mechanisms as albedo, evapotranspiration, cloud formation, and weathering.[37][38][39] Examples of how life may have affected past climate include:
- glaciation 2.3 billion years ago triggered by the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis, which depleted the atmosphere of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and introduced free oxygen[40][41]
- another glaciation 300 million years ago ushered in by long-term burial of decomposition-resistant detritus of vascular land-plants (creating a carbon sink and forming coal)[42][43]
- termination of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 million years ago by flourishing marine phytoplankton[44][45]
- reversal of global warming 49 million years ago by 800,000 years of arctic azolla blooms[46][47]
- global cooling over the past 40 million years driven by the expansion of grass-grazer ecosystems[48][49]
External climate forcing
Greenhouse gases
Whereas
Since the
The
Orbital variations
Slight variations in Earth's motion lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of
During the glacial cycles, there was a high correlation between CO2 concentrations and temperatures. Early studies indicated that CO2 concentrations lagged temperatures, but it has become clear that this is not always the case.[60] When ocean temperatures increase, the solubility of CO2 decreases so that it is released from the ocean. The exchange of CO2 between the air and the ocean can also be impacted by further aspects of climatic change.[61] These and other self-reinforcing processes allow small changes in Earth's motion to have a large effect on climate.[60]
Solar output
Volcanism
The volcanic eruptions considered to be large enough to affect the Earth's climate on a scale of more than 1 year are the ones that inject over 100,000 tons of SO2 into the stratosphere.[72] This is due to the optical properties of SO2 and sulfate aerosols, which strongly absorb or scatter solar radiation, creating a global layer of sulfuric acid haze.[73] On average, such eruptions occur several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of several years. Although volcanoes are technically part of the lithosphere, which itself is part of the climate system, the IPCC explicitly defines volcanism as an external forcing agent.[74]
Notable eruptions in the historical records are the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years,[75][76] and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora causing the Year Without a Summer.[77]
At a larger scale—a few times every 50 million to 100 million years—the eruption of large igneous provinces brings large quantities of igneous rock from the mantle and lithosphere to the Earth's surface. Carbon dioxide in the rock is then released into the atmosphere.[78] [79] Small eruptions, with injections of less than 0.1 Mt of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, affect the atmosphere only subtly, as temperature changes are comparable with natural variability. However, because smaller eruptions occur at a much higher frequency, they too significantly affect Earth's atmosphere.[72][80]
Plate tectonics
Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[81]
The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the
The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.
Other mechanisms
It has been postulated that ionized particles known as cosmic rays could impact cloud cover and thereby the climate. As the sun shields the Earth from these particles, changes in solar activity were hypothesized to influence climate indirectly as well. To test the hypothesis, CERN designed the CLOUD experiment, which showed the effect of cosmic rays is too weak to influence climate noticeably.[86][87]
Evidence exists that the Chicxulub asteroid impact some 66 million years ago had severely affected the Earth's climate. Large quantities of sulfate aerosols were kicked up into the atmosphere, decreasing global temperatures by up to 26 °C and producing sub-freezing temperatures for a period of 3–16 years. The recovery time for this event took more than 30 years.[88] The large-scale use of nuclear weapons has also been investigated for its impact on the climate. The hypothesis is that soot released by large-scale fires blocks a significant fraction of sunlight for as much as a year, leading to a sharp drop in temperatures for a few years. This possible event is described as nuclear winter.[89]
Evidence and measurement of climate changes
Paleoclimatology is the study of changes in climate through the entire history of Earth. It uses a variety of proxy methods from the Earth and life sciences to obtain data preserved within things such as rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings, corals, shells, and microfossils. It then uses the records to determine the past states of the Earth's various climate regions and its atmospheric system. Direct measurements give a more complete overview of climate variability.
Direct measurements
Climate changes that occurred after the widespread deployment of measuring devices can be observed directly. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. Further observations are derived indirectly from historical documents. Satellite cloud and precipitation data has been available since the 1970s.[92]
Proxy measurements
Various archives of past climate are present in rocks, trees and fossils. From these archives, indirect measures of climate, so-called proxies, can be derived. Quantification of climatological variation of precipitation in prior centuries and epochs is less complete but approximated using proxies such as marine sediments, ice cores, cave stalagmites, and tree rings.[95] Stress, too little precipitation or unsuitable temperatures, can alter the growth rate of trees, which allows scientists to infer climate trends by analyzing the growth rate of tree rings. This branch of science studying this called dendroclimatology.[96] Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material—including organic matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated—recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated.
Analysis of ice in cores drilled from an ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions. The 18O/16O ratio in calcite and ice core samples used to deduce ocean temperature in the distant past is an example of a temperature proxy method.
The remnants of plants, and specifically pollen, are also used to study climatic change. Plant distributions vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate.
Analysis and uncertainties
One difficulty in detecting climate cycles is that the Earth's climate has been changing in non-cyclic ways over most paleoclimatological timescales. Currently we are in a period of
Impacts
Life
Vegetation
A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate. Some changes in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. Though an increase in CO2 may benefit plants, some factors can diminish this increase. If there is an environmental change such as drought, increased CO2 concentrations will not benefit the plant.[103] So even though climate change does increase CO2 emissions, plants will often not use this increase as other environmental stresses put pressure on them.[104] However, sequestration of CO2 is expected to affect the rate of many natural cycles like plant litter decomposition rates.[105] A gradual increase in warmth in a region will lead to earlier flowering and fruiting times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of dependent organisms. Conversely, cold will cause plant bio-cycles to lag.[106]
Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and
Wildlife
One of the most important ways animals can deal with climatic change is migration to warmer or colder regions.
Humanity
Collapses of past civilizations such as the
Changes in the cryosphere
Glaciers and ice sheets
Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of a changing climate.[113] Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures increase, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt. Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability in temperature, precipitation and hydrology can strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season.
The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[114] Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing.
Sea level change
During the Last Glacial Maximum, some 25,000 years ago, sea levels were roughly 130 m lower than today. The deglaciation afterwards was characterized by rapid sea level change.[115] In the early Pliocene, global temperatures were 1–2˚C warmer than the present temperature, yet sea level was 15–25 meters higher than today.[116]
Sea ice
Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate as it affects the total amount of sunlight that is reflected away from the Earth.[117] In the past, the Earth's oceans have been almost entirely covered by sea ice on a number of occasions, when the Earth was in a so-called Snowball Earth state,[118] and completely ice-free in periods of warm climate.[119] When there is a lot of sea ice present globally, especially in the tropics and subtropics, the climate is more sensitive to forcings as the ice–albedo feedback is very strong.[120]
Climate history
Various
Paleo-eocene thermal maximum
The
The Cenozoic
Throughout the
Climatological temperatures substantially affect cloud cover and precipitation. At lower temperatures, air can hold less water vapour, which can lead to decreased precipitation.
The Holocene
The
- the Piora Oscillation
- the Middle Bronze Age Cold Epoch
- the Iron Age Cold Epoch
- the Little Ice Age
- the phase of cooling c. 1940–1970, which led to global cooling hypothesis
In contrast, several warm periods have also taken place, and they include but are not limited to:
- a warm period during the apex of the Minoan civilization
- the Roman Warm Period
- the Medieval Warm Period
- Modern warmingduring the 20th century
Certain effects have occurred during these cycles. For example, during the Medieval Warm Period, the
Solar activity may have contributed to part of the modern warming that peaked in the 1930s. However, solar cycles fail to account for warming observed since the 1980s to the present day.[
Modern climate change and global warming
As a consequence of humans emitting
Variability between regions
-
Latitude bands. Three latitude bands that respectively cover 30, 40 and 30 percent of the global surface area show mutually distinct temperature growth patterns in recent decades.[135]
-
Altitude. A warming stripes graphic (blues denote cool, reds denote warm) shows how the greenhouse effect traps heat in the lower atmosphere so that the upper atmosphere, receiving less reflected energy, cools. Volcanos cause upper-atmosphere temperature spikes.[136]
-
Relative deviation. Though northern America has warmed more than its tropics, the tropics have more clearly departed from normal historical variability (colored bands: 1σ, 2σ standard deviations).[139]
In addition to global climate variability and global climate change over time, numerous climatic variations occur contemporaneously across different physical regions.
The oceans' absorption of about 90% of excess heat has helped to cause land surface temperatures to grow more rapidly than sea surface temperatures.[132] The Northern Hemisphere, having a larger landmass-to-ocean ratio than the Southern Hemisphere, shows greater average temperature increases.[134] Variations across different latitude bands also reflect this divergence in average temperature increase, with the temperature increase of northern extratropics exceeding that of the tropics, which in turn exceeds that of the southern extratropics.[135]
Upper regions of the atmosphere have been cooling contemporaneously with a warming in the lower atmosphere, confirming the action of the greenhouse effect and ozone depletion.[136]
Observed regional climatic variations confirm predictions concerning ongoing changes, for example, by contrasting (smoother) year-to-year global variations with (more volatile) year-to-year variations in localized regions.[137] Conversely, comparing different regions' warming patterns to their respective historical variabilities, allows the raw magnitudes of temperature changes to be placed in the perspective of what is normal variability for each region.[139]
Regional variability observations permit study of regionalized climate tipping points such as rainforest loss, ice sheet and sea ice melt, and permafrost thawing.[140] Such distinctions underlie research into a possible global cascade of tipping points.[140]
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- ^ "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) / Annual Mean Temperature Change for Hemispheres". NASA GISS. Archived from the original on 16 April 2020.
- ^ a b Freedman, Andrew (9 April 2013). "In Warming, Northern Hemisphere is Outpacing the South". Climate Central. Archived from the original on 31 October 2019.
- ^ a b "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) / Temperature Change for Three Latitude Bands". NASA GISS. Archived from the original on 16 April 2020.
- ^ a b Hawkins, Ed (12 September 2019). "Atmospheric temperature trends". Climate Lab Book. Archived from the original on 12 September 2019. (Higher-altitude cooling differences attributed to ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases; spikes occurred with volcanic eruptions of 1982–83 (El Chichón) and 1991–92 (Pinatubo).)
- ^ a b Meduna, Veronika (17 September 2018). "The climate visualisations that leave no room for doubt or denial". The Spinoff. New Zealand. Archived from the original on 17 May 2019.
- ^ "Climate at a Glance / Global Time Series". NCDC / NOAA. Archived from the original on 23 February 2020.
- ^ a b Hawkins, Ed (10 March 2020). "From the familiar to the unknown". Climate Lab Book (professional blog). Archived from the original on 23 April 2020. (Direct link to image; Hawkins credits Berkeley Earth for data.) "The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extra-tropics. As an illustration, northern America has warmed more than tropical America, but the changes in the tropics are more apparent and have more clearly emerged from the range of historical variability. The year-to-year variations in the higher latitudes have made it harder to distinguish the long-term changes."
- ^ PMID 31776487. Correction dated 9 April 2020
References
- Cronin, Thomas N. (2010). Paleoclimates: understanding climate change past and present. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-14494-0.
- ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1. (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7).
- ].
- Burroughs, William James (2001). Climate Change : A multidisciplinary approach. Cambridge: Cambridge university press. ISBN 0521567718.
- Burroughs, William James (2007). Climate Change : A multidisciplinary approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-511-37027-4.
- Ruddiman, William F. (2008). Earth's climate : Past and Future. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company. ISBN 978-0716784906.
- Rohli, Robert. V.; Vega, Anthony J. (2018). Climatology (4th ed.). Jones & Bartlett Learning. ISBN 978-1284126563.
External links
- Media related to Climate variability and change at Wikimedia Commons
- Global Climate Change from NASA (US)
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Climate Variability Archived 30 May 2023 at the Wayback Machine – NASA Science
- Climate Change and Variability, National Centers for Environmental Information Archived 21 September 2021 at the Wayback Machine