Ecosystem collapse
An
Ecosystem collapse does not mean total disappearance of life from the area, but it does result in the loss of the original ecosystem's defining characteristics, typically including the
Today, the ongoing
Definition
Ecosystem collapse has been defined as a "transformation of identity, loss of defining features, and replacement by a novel ecosystem", and involves the loss of "defining biotic or abiotic features", including the ability to sustain the species which used to be associated with that ecosystem.
Drivers
While collapse events can occur naturally with disturbances to an ecosystem—through fires, landslides, flooding, severe weather events, disease, or
Some behaviors that induce transformation are: human intervention in the balance of local diversity (through introduction of new species or
Despite the strong empirical evidence and highly visible collapse-inducing disturbances, anticipating collapse is a complex problem. The collapse can happen when the ecosystem's distribution decreases below a minimal sustainable size, or when key biotic processes and features disappear due to environmental degradation or disruption of biotic interactions. These different pathways to collapse can be used as criteria for estimating the risk of ecosystem collapse.[17][18] Although states of ecosystem collapse are often defined quantitatively, few studies adequately describe transitions from pristine or original state towards collapse.[19][20]
Geological record
In another example, 2004 research demonstrated how during the
In the
Historic examples of collapsed ecosystems
The
The
The regime shift in the northern
Another notable example is the collapse of the Grand Banks cod in the early 1990s, when overfishing reduced fish populations to 1% of their historical levels.[10]
Contemporary risk
There are two tools commonly used together to assess risks to ecosystems and biodiversity: generic risk assessment protocols and stochastic simulation models. The most notable of the two tactics is risk assessment protocol, particularly because of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), which is widely applicable to many ecosystems even in data-poor circumstances. However, because using this tool is essentially comparing systems to a list of criteria, it is often limited in its ability to look at ecosystem decline holistically; and is thus often used in conjunction with simulation models that consider more aspects of decline such as ecosystem dynamics, future threats, and social-ecological relationships.[18]
The IUCN RLE is a global standard that was developed to assess threats to various ecosystems on local, regional, national, and global scales, as well as to prompt conservation efforts in the face of the unparalleled decline of natural systems in the last decade.[20][27] And though this effort is still in the earlier stages of implementation, the IUCN has a goal to assess the risk of collapse for all of the world's ecosystems by 2025.[20] The concept of ecosystem collapse is used in the framework to establish categories of risk for ecosystems, with the category Collapsed used as the end-point of risk assessment. Other categories of threat (Vulnerable, Endangered and Critically Endangered) are defined in terms of the probability or risk of collapse.[1] A paper by Bland et al. suggests four aspects for defining ecosystem collapse in risk assessments:[19]
- qualitatively defining initial and collapsed states
- describing collapse and recovery transitions
- identifying and selecting indicators of collapse
- setting quantitative collapse thresholds.
Early detection and monitoring
Scientists can predict tipping points for ecosystem collapse. The most frequently used model for predicting food web collapse is called R50, which is a reliable measurement model for food web robustness.[29] However, there are others: i.e. marine ecosystem assessments can use RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. In one example, 154 different marine fish species were studied to establish the relationship between pressures on fish populations such as overfishing and climate change, these populations; traits like growth rate, and the risk of ecosystem collapse.[30]
The measurement of "critical slowing down" (CSD) is one approach for developing early warning signals for a potential or likely onset of approaching collapse. It refers to increasingly slow recovery from perturbations.[31][32]
In 2020, one paper suggested that once a 'point of no return' is reached, breakdowns do not occur gradually but rapidly and that the
Rainforest collapse
Rainforest collapse refers to the actual past and theoretical future ecological collapse of rainforests. It may involve habitat fragmentation to the point where little rainforest biome is left, and rainforest species only survive in isolated refugia. Habitat fragmentation can be caused by roads. When humans start to cut down the trees for logging, secondary roads are created that will go unused after its primary use. Once abandoned, the plants of the rainforest will find it difficult to grow back in that area.[37] Forest fragmentation also opens the path for illegal hunting. Species have a hard time finding a new place to settle in these fragments causing ecological collapse. This leads to extinction of many animals in the rainforest.
A classic pattern of
In the year 2022, research found that more than three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest has been losing resilience due to deforestation and climate change since the early 2000s as measured by recovery-time from short-term perturbations (the critical slowing down), reinforcing the theory that it is approaching a critical transition.[12][11] Another study from 2022 found that that tropical, arid and temperate forests are substantially losing resilience.[28][39]
Coral reefs
A major concern for
Conservation and reversal
As of now there is still not much information on effective conservation or reversal methods for ecosystem collapse. Rather, there has been increased focus on the predictability of ecosystem collapse, whether it is possible, and whether it is productive to explore.[20] This is likely because thorough studies of at-risk ecosystems are a more recent development and trend in ecological fields, so collapse dynamics are either too recent to observe or still emerging. Since studies are not yet long term, conclusions about reversibility or transformation potential are often hard to draw from newer, more focused studies.[5]
See also
- Arctic shrinkage
- Ecological resilience
- Ecosystem services
- Environmental degradation
- Overshoot (ecology)
- Tipping points in the climate system
References
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- ^ a b Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Butler, M. J. (January 2001). "Outport adaptations: Social indicators through Newfoundland's Cod crisis". Human Ecology Review. 8 (2): 1–11.
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- ^ a b Carrington, Damian (7 March 2022). "Climate crisis: Amazon rainforest tipping point is looming, data shows". The Guardian. Retrieved 18 April 2022.
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