Economic history of Italy
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This is a history of the economy of Italy. For more information on historical, cultural, demographic and sociological developments in Italy, see the chronological era articles in the template to the right. For more information on specific political and governmental regimes in Italy, see the Kingdom and Fascist regime articles.
Until the end of the 16th century, Italy was highly prosperous relative to other parts of Europe. From the end of the 16th century, Italy stagnated relative to other parts of Europe.[1] At the time of Italian unification, Italy's GDP per capita was about half of that of Britain.[1][2] By the 1980s, Italy had similar GDP per capita as Great Britain.[2][3] Since the mid-1990s, the Italian economy has declined in both relative and absolute terms,[3] as well as experienced a decline in aggregate productivity.[4]
Renaissance
The Italian Renaissance was remarkable in economic development. Venice and Genoa were the trade pioneers, first as maritime republics and then as regional states, followed by Milan, Florence, and the rest of northern Italy. Reasons for their early development are for example the relative military safety of Venetian lagoons, the high population density and the institutional structure which inspired entrepreneurs.
17th–middle 19th century
After 1600 Italy experienced an economic catastrophe. In 1600 Northern and Central Italy comprised one of the most advanced industrial areas of Europe. There was an exceptionally high standard of living.[7] By 1870 Italy was an economically backward and depressed area; its industrial structure had almost collapsed, its population was too high for its resources, its economy had become primarily agricultural. Wars, political fractionalization, limited fiscal capacity and the shift of world trade to north-western Europe and the Americas were key factors.[8][9]
1861–1918
The economic history of Italy after 1861 can be divided in three main phases:[10] an initial period of struggle after the unification of the country, characterised by high emigration and stagnant growth; a central period of robust catch-up from the 1890s to the 1980s, interrupted by the Great Depression of the 1930s and the two world wars; and a final period of sluggish growth that has been exacerbated by a double-dip recession following the 2008 global financial crush, and from which the country is slowly reemerging only in recent years.
Age of Industrialisation
Prior to unification, the economy of the many Italian statelets was overwhelmingly agrarian; however, the agricultural surplus produced what historians call a "pre-industrial" transformation in North-western Italy starting from the 1820s,
After the
However, the diffusion of industrialisation that characterised the northwestern area of the country largely excluded Venetia and, especially, the South. The resulting Italian diaspora involved 29 million Italians (10.2 million of whom returned) between 1860-1985 and 9 million permanently left of 14 million who emigrated between 1876 and 1914 two thirds of whom were men; by many scholars it is considered the biggest mass migration of contemporary times.[17] During the Great War, the still frail Italian state successfully fought a modern war, being able of arming and training some 5 million recruits.[18] But this result came at a terrible cost: by the end of the war, Italy had lost 700,000 soldiers and had a ballooning sovereign debt amounting to billions of lira.
The agrarian crisis and the Italian diaspora
The
Mezzadria, a form of sharefarming where tenant families obtained a plot to work on from an owner and kept a reasonable share of the profits, was more prevalent in central Italy, which is one of the reasons why there was less emigration from that part of Italy. Although owning land was the basic yardstick of wealth, farming in the south was socially despised. People did not invest in agricultural equipment but in such things as low-risk state bonds.[19]
Fascist Italy
Italy had emerged from World War I in a poor and weakened condition. The National Fascist Party of Benito Mussolini came to power in Italy in 1922, at the end of a period of social unrest. During the first four years of the new regime, from 1922 to 1925, the Fascist had a generally laissez-faire economic policy: they initially reduced taxes, regulations and trade restrictions on the whole.[21] However, "once Mussolini acquired a firmer hold of power... laissez-faire was progressively abandoned in favour of government intervention, free trade was replaced by protectionism and economic objectives were increasingly couched in exhortations and military terminology."[22] Italy reached a balanced budget in 1924–25 and was only partially hit by the 1929 crisis. The Fascist government nationalized the holdings of large banks which had accrued significant industrial securities,[23] and a number of mixed entities were formed, whose purpose was to bring together representatives of the government and major businesses. These representatives discussed economic policy and manipulated prices and wages to satisfy both the wishes of the government and the wishes of business. This economic model based on a partnership between government and business was soon extended to the political sphere, in what came to be known as corporatism.
Throughout the 1930s, the Italian economy maintained the corporatist and autarchic model that had been established during the Great Depression. At the same time, however, Mussolini had growing ambitions of extending Italy's foreign influence through both diplomacy and military intervention. After the invasion of Ethiopia, Italy began supplying troops and equipment to the Spanish nationalists under General Francisco Franco, who were fighting in the Spanish Civil War against a leftist government. These foreign interventions required increased military spending, and the Italian economy became increasingly subordinated to the needs of its armed forces. By 1938, only 5.18% of workers were state employees. Only one million workers, out of a total 20 million, were employed in the public sector.[24]
Finally, Italy's involvement in World War II as a member of the Axis powers required the establishment of a war economy. This put severe strain on the corporatist model, since the war quickly started going badly for Italy and it became difficult for the government to persuade business leaders to finance what they saw as a military disaster. The Allied invasion of Italy in 1943 caused the Italian political structure—and the economy—to rapidly collapse. The Allies, on the one hand, and the Germans on the other, took over the administration of the areas of Italy under their control. By the end of the war the Italian economy had been destroyed; per capita income in 1944 was at its lowest point since the beginning of the 20th century.[25]
Post-World War II economic miracle
The Italian economy has had very variable growth. In the 1950s and early 1960s, the
After the end of World War II, Italy was in rubble and occupied by foreign armies, a condition that worsened the chronic development gap towards the more advanced European economies. However, the new geopolitical logic of the
The end of aid through the Plan could have stopped the recovery but it coincided with a crucial point in the
These favorable developments, combined with the presence of a large labour force, laid the foundation for spectacular economic growth that lasted almost uninterrupted until the "
1964–1991
After 1964, Italy maintained for a while a constant growth rate of above 8% every year.
The 1970s and 1980s was also the period of investment and rapid economic growth in the South, unlike Northern and Central Italy which mainly grew in the 1950s and early 1960s. The "Vanoni Plan" ensured that a new programme to help growth in the South called "Cassa per il Mezzogiorno" (Funds for the "Mezzogiorno" - the latter being an unofficial term for Southern Italy, literally meaning "midday") was put in place. Investment was worth billions of US dollars: from 1951 to 1978, the funds spent in the South was $11.5 billion for infrastructure,[31] $13 billion for low-cost loans,[31] and outrighted grants were worth $3.2 billion.[31]
On 15 May 1991, Italy became the fourth worldwide economic power, overcoming France,[33] called the "secondo sorpasso" with a GDP of US$1.268 trillion, compared to France's GDP of US$1.209 trillion and Britain's of US$1.087 trillion. Despite the alleged 1987 GDP growth of 18% according to the Economist's [34][35] Italy was then re-overtaken by all countries due to currency value change.
The 1970s and 1980s: from stagflation to "il sorpasso"
The 1970s were a period of economic, political turmoil and social unrest in Italy, known as Years of lead. Unemployment rose sharply, especially among the young, and by 1977 there were one million unemployed people under age 24. Inflation continued, aggravated by the increases in the price of oil in 1973 and 1979. The budget deficit became permanent and intractable, averaging about 10 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), higher than any other industrial country. The lira fell steadily, from 560 lira to the U.S. dollar in 1973 to 1,400 lira in 1982.[36]
The economic recession went on into the mid-1980s until a set of reforms led to the independence of the
However, the Italian economy of the 1980s presented a problem: it was booming, thanks to increased productivity and surging exports, but unsustainable fiscal deficits drove the growth.
1990s
By the 1990s, the Italian government was fighting to lower the internal and external debt, liberalise the economy, reduce governmental spending, selling business and enterprises owned by the state, and trying to stop
In the 1990s, and still today, Italy's strength was not the big enterprises or corporation, but small to middle-sized family owned businesses and industries, which mainly operated in the North-Western "economic/industrial triangle" (Milan-Turin-Genoa). Italy's companies are comparatively smaller than those of similar countries in size or of the EU, and rather than the common trend of less, yet bigger businesses, Italy concentrated on more, yet smaller enterprises. This can be seen in the fact, that the average workers per company in the country is of 3.6 employees (8.7 for industrial/manufacturing-orientated businesses), compared to the Western European Union average of 15 workers.[31]
In the recent decades, however, Italy's economic growth has been particularly stagnant, with an average of 1.23% compared to an EU average of 2.28%. Previously, Italy's economy had accelerated from 0.7% growth in 1996 to 1.4% in 1999 and continued to rise to about 2.90% in 2000, which was closer to the EU projected growth rate of 3.10%.
In a 2017 paper, economists Bruno Pellegrino and Luigi Zingales attribute the decline in Italian labor productivity since the mid-1990s to familyism and cronyism:[45]
We find no evidence that this slowdown is due to trade dynamics, Italy's inefficient governmental apparatus, or excessively protective labor regulations. By contrast, the data suggest that Italy's slowdown was more likely caused by the failure of its firms to take full advantage of the ICT revolution. While many institutional features can account for this failure, a prominent one is the lack of meritocracy in the selection and rewarding of managers. Familyism and cronyism are the ultimate causes of the Italian disease.
21st century
Italy's economy in the 21st century has been mixed, experiencing both relative economic growth and stagnation, recession and stability. In the late 2000s recession, Italy was one of a few countries whose economy did not contract dramatically, and kept a relatively stable economic growth, although figures for economic growth in 2009 and 2010 averaged in the negatives, ranging from around -1% to -5%.[46] The late-first decade of the 21st century recession has also gripped Italy; car sales in Italy have fallen by almost 20 percent over each of the past two months. Italy's car workers' union said; "The situation is evidently more serious than had been understood."[47] On 10 July 2008 economic think tank ISAE lowered its growth forecast for Italy to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent and cut the 2009 outlook to 0.7 percent from 1.2 percent.[48] Analysts have predicted Italy had entered a recession in the second quarter or would enter one by the end of the year with business confidence at its lowest levels since the September 11 attacks.[49] Italy's economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.[50]
In the 4 quarters of 2006, Italy's growth rates were approximately these: +0.6% in the Q1, +0.6% in the Q2, +0.65% in the Q3, and +1% in the Q4.[51] Similarly, in 2007's 4 quarters, these were the figures: +0.25% in the Q1, +0.1% in the Q2, +0.2% in the Q3, and -0.5% in the Q4.[51] In the 4 of 2008's quarters, the results, mainly negative, were these: +0.5% in the Q1, -0.6% in the Q2, -0.65% in the Q3 and -2.2% in the Q4.[51]
In the Q1 (1st quarter) of 2009, Italy's economy contracted by 4.9%, a greater contraction than the predictions of the
In the period 2014–2019, the economy partially recovered from the disastrous losses incurred during the
Starting from February 2020 after the United States had the first originated from China, Italy was the first country in Europe to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,[53] that eventually expanded to the rest of the world. The economy suffered a massive shock as a result of the
Great Recession
Italy was among the countries hit hardest by the
Economic recovery
From 2014 to 2019 the economy had almost fully recovered from the
Resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic
Italy was the first among the countries of Europe to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,[66] which in the months after February 2020 expanded to the rest of the world. The economy suffered a very severe shock as a result of the
The Italian government has issued special BTP Futura
In 2022 after the COVID-19 pandemic had mainly subsided the economy had grown by (3.16%) much more than 2020 were Italy was dealing with COVID-19 and the Economy had dropped by (9.03%).[71] In other Countries such as the United Kingdom had a (-11.0%) growth rate.[72]
Currency
Despite the fact that the first Italian coinage systems were used in the
Since Italy has been for centuries divided into many
GDP (PPP) growth
A table showing the growth of Italy's
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,191,056.7 | 1,248,648.1 | 1,295,225.7 | 1,335,353.7 | 1,390,539.0 | 1,423,048.0 | 1,475,403.0 | 1,534,561.0 | 1,814,557.0 |
GDP (PPP) per capita growth
A table showing Italy's GDP per capita (PPP) growth from 2000 to 2008:[79]
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20,917.0 | 21,914.9 | 22,660.7 | 23,181.3 | 23,902.6 | 24,281.2 | 25,031.6 | 25,921.4 | 26,276.40 |
GDP sector composition
A table showing the different compositions of the Italian economy:
Macro-economic activity | GDP activity |
Primary (agriculture, farming, fishing) | €27,193.33 |
Secondary (industry, manufacturing, petrochemicals, processing) | €270,000.59 |
Constructions | €79,775.99 |
Tertiary (commerce, restoration, hotels and restaurants, tourism, transport, communications) | €303,091.10 |
Financial activities and real estate | €356,600.45 |
Other activities (e.g. R&D) | €279,924.50 |
VAT and other forms of taxes | €158,817.00 |
GDP (PPP) of Italy | €1,475,402.97 |
Other statistics
- Central Bank discount rate: 0.25% (31 December 2013), 0.75% (31 December 2012)
- Commercial bank prime lending rate: 5.2% (31 December 2013), 5.22% (31 December 2012)
- Stock of domestic credit: $3.407 trillion (31 December 2013), $3.438 trillion (31 December 2012)
- Market value of publicly traded shares: $480.5 billion (31 December 2013), $$431.5 billion (31 December 2012), $318.1 billion (31 December 2006)
- Industrial production growth rate: -2.7% (2013 est.)
- Electricity – exports: 2.304 billion kWh (2012 est.)
- Electricity – imports: 45.41 billion kWh (2013 est.)
- Crude Oil – production: 112,000 bbl/d (17,800 m3/d) (2012 est.)
- Crude Oil – exports: 6,300 bbl/d (1,000 m3/d) (2010 est.)
- Crude Oil – imports: 1,591,000 bbl/d (252,900 m3/d) (2010 est.)
- Crude Oil – proved reserves: 521,300,000 bbl (82,880,000 m3) (1 January 2013 est.)
- Natural gas – production: 7.8 km3 (2012 est.)
- Natural gas – consumption: 68.7 km3 (2012 est.)
- Natural gas – exports: 324,000,000 m³ (2012 est.)
- Natural gas – imports: 67.8 km3 (2012 est.)
- Natural gas – proved reserves: 62.35 km3 (1 January 2013 est.)
- Current account balance: -$2.4 billion (2013 est.), -$14.88 billion (2012 est.)
- Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $181.7 billion (31 December 2012 est.), $173.3 billion (31 December 2011 est.)
- Debt – external: $2.604 trillion (31 December 2013 est.), $2.516 trillion (31 December 2012 est.)
- Stock of direct foreign investment – at home: $466.3 billion (31 December 2013 est.), $457.8 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
- Stock of direct foreign investment – abroad: $683.6 billion (31 December 2013 est.), $653.3 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
- Exchange rates: euros (EUR) per US dollar – 0.7634 (2013), 0.7752 (2012), 0.755 (2010), 0.7198 (2009), 0.6827 (2008)
Notes
- This article incorporates public domain material from The World Factbook. CIA.
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Further reading
- Ahearn, Brian (2003). "Anthropometric evidence on living standards in northern Italy, 1730–1860". Journal of Economic History. 63 (2): 351–381. S2CID 154670100.
- Cipolla, Carlo M. “The Decline of Italy: The Case of a Fully Matured Economy.” Economic History Review 5#2 1952, pp. 178–187. online on 1600 to 1670.
- Federico, Giovanni, Alessandro Nuvolari, and Michelangelo Vasta. "The origins of the Italian regional divide: Evidence from real wages, 1861–1913." Journal of Economic History 79.1 (2019): 63–98. online
- Fenoaltea, Stefano (2003). "Notes on the rate of industrial growth in Italy, 1861–1913". Journal of Economic History. 63 (3): 695–735. S2CID 154529142.
- Fenoaltea, Stefano (2005). "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861–1913: preliminary second-generation estimates". European Review of Economic History. 9 (3): 273–312. .
- Gabbuti, Giacomo. 2020. "Labor shares and inequality: insights from Italian economic history, 1895–1970." European Review of Economic History.
- Hassan; Ottoviano (2018). "Poor productivity: an Italian perspective". CentrePiece.
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- Luzzatto, Gino (1961). An economic history of Italy: from the fall of the Roman Empire to the beginning of the sixteenth century. Routledge & Kegan Paul.
- Malanima, Paolo (2011). "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913". European Review of Economic History. 15 (2): 169–219. .
- Milward, Alan S.; Saul, S. B. (1977). The Development of the Economies of Continental Europe: 1850–1914. pp. 215–270. ISBN 0-04-330277-7.
- Milward, Alan S.; Saul, S. B. (1979). The Economic Development of Continental Europe 1780–1870 (2nd ed.). ISBN 0-04-330299-8.
- Toniolo, Gianni (1990). An economic history of liberal Italy 1850–1918. London: Routledge. ISBN 0-415-03500-7.
- Toniolo, Gianni, ed. (2013). The Oxford Handbook of the Italian Economy since Unification. Oxford University Press. online review; another online review
- van Leeuwen, Bas, Matteo Calabrese, and Meimei Wang. "Italy’s Total Factor Productivity in a Global Economy: Growth and Spillover Effects (c. 1400–2010)." Italian Economic Journal (2023): 1–15. online
- Zamagni, Vera (1993). The economic history of Italy 1860–1990. Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-828773-9.