Economy of Tajikistan
Country group |
|
---|---|
Statistics | |
GDP | |
GDP rank | |
GDP growth |
|
GDP per capita | |
GDP per capita rank | |
GDP by sector | agriculture: 23.3%, industry: 22.8%, services: 53.9% (2012 est.) |
7.1% (2020 est.)[3] | |
Population below poverty line | |
34.0 medium (2015)[7] | |
Labour force | 2.1 million (2012) |
Labour force by occupation | agriculture: 47.9%, industry: 10.9%, services: 41.2% (2012 est.) |
Unemployment | 2.5% (2012 est.) |
Main industries | aluminium, cement, vegetable oil |
External | |
Exports | $1.753 billion (2022 est.)[10] |
Export goods | aluminium, electricity, cotton, fruits, vegetable oil, textiles |
Main export partners |
|
Imports | $5.182 billion (2022 est.)[12] |
Import goods | petroleum products, aluminium oxide, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs |
Main import partners |
|
Public finances | |
US$2.2 billion (31 December 2012 est.) | |
Revenues | US$2.046 billion (2012 est.) |
Expenses | US$2.066 billion (2012 est.) |
Economic aid | recipient: US$67 million from US (2005) |
The economy of Tajikistan is dependent upon agriculture and services.[14] Since independence, Tajikistan has gradually followed the path of transition economy, reforming its economic policies. With foreign revenue precariously dependent upon exports of cotton and aluminium, the economy is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Tajikistan's economy also incorporates a massive black market, primarily focused on the drug trade with Afghanistan. Heroin trafficking in Tajikistan is estimated to be equivalent to 30-50% of national GDP as of 2012.[15]
In the
Economic history
This is a chart of trend of gross domestic product of Tajikistan at market prices estimated by the International Monetary Fund with figures in millions of ruling currency.
Year | Gross Domestic Product | US Dollar Exchange |
---|---|---|
1995 | 65,000 | 123.33 Tajik roubles
|
2000 | 1,807 | 1.82 somoni |
2005 | 7,201 | 3.11 somoni |
For purchasing power parity comparisons, the US Dollar is exchanged at
The Tajikistani economy has been gravely weakened by six years of civil conflict and loss of markets for its products. Tajikistan thus depends on international humanitarian assistance for much of its basic subsistence needs. Even if the peace agreement of June 1997 is honoured, the country faces major problems in integrating
In 2006
Despite resistance from vested interests, the Government of Tajikistan continued to pursue macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform in FY 2000. In December 1999, the government announced that small-enterprise privatization had been successfully completed, and the privatization of medium-sized and large-owned enterprises (SOEs) continued incrementally. The continued privatization of medium-sized and large SOEs, land reform, and banking reform and restructuring remain top priorities. Shortly after the end of FY 2000, the Board of the International Monetary Fund gave its vote of confidence to the government's recent performance by approving the third annual Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Loan for Tajikistan. Improved fiscal discipline by the Government of Tajikistan has supported the return to positive economic growth. The government budget was nearly in balance in 2001 and the government's 2002 budget targets a fiscal deficit of 0.3% of GDP, including recent increases in social sector spending.
The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1997–2017.[19]
Year | GDP
(in bil. US$ PPP) |
GDP per capita
(in US$ PPP) |
GDP
(in bil. US$ nominal) |
GDP growth (real) |
Inflation (in Percent) |
Gov. debt (Percentage of GDP) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1993 | 6.61 | 1,186 | 0.7 | −11.1 % | 2,000.6 % | ... |
1995 | 4.73 | 836 | 0.6 | −12.5 % | 612.5 % | ... |
2000 | 5.92 | 945 | 1.0 | 8.3 % | 32.9 % | 111 % |
2005 | 10.41 | 1,504 | 2.3 | 6.7 % | 7.3 % | 46 % |
2006 | 11.48 | 1,625 | 2.8 | 7.0 % | 10.0 % | 37 % |
2007 | 12.70 | 1,760 | 3.7 | 7.8 % | 13.2 % | 34 % |
2008 | 13.97 | 1,895 | 5.1 | 7.9 % | 20.4 % | 30 % |
2009 | 14.62 | 1,943 | 5.0 | 3.9 % | 6.4 % | 37 % |
2010 | 15.77 | 2,070 | 5.6 | 6.5 % | 6.4 % | 37 % |
2011 | 17.29 | 2,216 | 6.5 | 7.4 % | 12.4 % | 36 % |
2012 | 18.93 | 2,376 | 7.6 | 7.5 % | 5.8 % | 32 % |
2013 | 20.65 | 2,540 | 8.5 | 7.4 % | 5.0 % | 29 % |
2014 | 22.43 | 2,702 | 9.2 | 6.7 % | 6.1 % | 28 % |
2015 | 24.04 | 2,836 | 7.9 | 6.0 % | 5.8 % | 34 % |
2016 | 26.02 | 3,008 | 7.0 | 6.9 % | 5.9 % | 42 % |
2017 | 28.38 | 3,212 | 7.5 | 7.1 % | 7.3 % | 48 % |
Gross domestic product
In 2005 Tajikistan's GDP grew by 6.7%, to about US$1.89 billion, and growth for 2006 was about 8%, marking the fifth consecutive year of annual growth exceeding 6%. The official forecast for GDP growth in 2007 is 7.5%. Per capita GDP in 2005 was US$258, lowest among the 15 countries of the former Soviet Union. In 2005 services contributed 48%, agriculture 23.4%, and industry 28.6% to GDP.[20] The recent global recession has reduced Tajikistan's GDP growth rate to 2.8% in the first half of 2009. Remittances from expatriate Tajikistanis is estimated to account for 30-50% of Tajikistan's GDP.
Industries
Agriculture
Although the government has announced an expedited land reform program, many Soviet-era state farms still existed in 2006, and the state retains control of production and harvesting on privatized farms. Privatization of
Tajikistan produced in 2018:
- 964 thousand tons of potato;
- 778 thousand tons of wheat;
- 680 thousand tons of onion;
- 641 thousand tons of watermelon;
- 443 thousand tons of tomato;
- 356 thousand tons of carrot;
- 308 thousand tons of vegetable;
- 300 thousand tons of cotton;
- 241 thousand tons of grape;
- 238 thousand tons of apple;
- 237 thousand tons of maize;
- 211 thousand tons of cucumber;
- 116 thousand tons of cabbage;
- 108 thousand tons of barley;
- 90 thousand tons of rice;
In addition to smaller productions of other agricultural products, like apricot (31 thousand tons).[22]
Forestry
3% of Tajikistan is forested, mainly at elevations between 1,000 and 3,000 meters. No forest region is classified as commercially usable; most are under state protection. Wood production is negligible, but local inhabitants harvest non-wood forest products.[20] [23]
Fishing
Streams and lakes produce a limited amount of fish, and some fish is produced by aquaculture. In 2003 some 158 tons of fish were caught and 167 tons raised on fish farms.[20]
Mining and minerals
Tajikistan has rich deposits of
Industry and manufacturing
The output of most
Energy
The rivers of Tajikistan, such as the
Tajikistan is a partner country of the
Services
Throughout the early 2000s, the overall output of the services sector has increased steadily. The banking system has improved significantly because of strengthened oversight by the
Abdujabbor Shirinov, Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan announced 142 credit organizations, including 16 banks and 299 their branches, two non-bank financial institutions and 124 microfinance organizations functioned in Tajikistan at the first of 2013.[35]
Tourism
The
Labour
In 2003 Tajikistan's active labour force was estimated at 3.4 million, of whom 64% were employed in agriculture, 24% in services, and 10% in industry and construction. After declining in the early 2000s, the real wages of state employees were raised in 2004 and 2005. Because of the continued dominance of state farms, the majority of workers are government employees, although only a small number rely completely on wages. Driven by high unemployment, in 2006 an estimated 700,000 workers found seasonal or permanent employment in Russia and other countries. Their remittances, estimated at US$600 million in 2005, are an important economic resource in Tajikistan; in 2004 an estimated 15% of households depended mainly on those payments. In May 2009 remittances to Tajiks had fallen to $525 million, a 34% decline from the previous year. Immediately before the 2008 financial crisis there were an estimated 1.5 million foreign workers sending remittances back to Tajikistan. In 2006 the average wage was US$27 per month. The national unemployment rate was estimated unofficially as high as 40% in 2006, but in rural areas, unemployment has exceeded 60%. Unemployment has been higher in the southern Khatlon Province than in the northern Soghd Province.[20] Mean wages were $0.66 per man-hour in 2009.
Tajikistan's informal employment sector has been reported to use both
Currency, exchange rate, and inflation
The
Government budget
The year 2004 was the first year of budget deficit after three consecutive years of budget surpluses, which in turn had followed four years of deficits between 1997 and 2000. In 2005 revenues totalled US$442 million (aided by improvements in tax collection), and expenditures were US$542 million, a deficit of US$100 million. The approved 2007 state budget calls for revenues of US$926 million and expenditures of US$954 million, leaving a deficit of US$28 million.[20]
Foreign economic relations
In the post-Soviet era, Tajikistan has substantially shifted its markets away from the former Soviet republics; in 2005, more than 80% of total exports went to customers outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including more than 70% to countries of the European Union (EU) and Turkey. However, because most of Tajikistan's food and energy are imported from CIS countries, in 2005 only about 53% of total trade activity was outside the CIS. In 2005, the top overall buyers of Tajikistan's exports, in order of value, were the Netherlands, Turkey, Russia, Uzbekistan, Latvia, and Iran. Besides aluminium, which accounts for more than half of export value, the main export commodities are cotton, electric power, fruits, vegetable oils, and textiles. In 2005 the largest suppliers of Tajikistan's imports, in order of value, were Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, China, and Ukraine. Those import rankings are determined largely by the high value of fuels and electric power that Tajikistan buys from its neighbours. Another significant import is alumina (aluminium oxide) to supply the aluminium industry. The major suppliers of alumina are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.[20]
Tajikistan has suffered trade deficits throughout the post-Soviet era. In 2003, the deficit was US$97 million, based on exports of US$705 million and imports of US$802 million. In 2004, exports were worth US$736 million and imports, US$958 billion, creating a trade deficit of US$222 million. The deficit increased again in 2005, to US$339 million, mainly because cotton exports decreased and domestic demand for goods increased.[20]
In 2005, the current account deficit was US$86 million, having shown a general downward trend since the late 1990s. The estimated current account deficit for both 2006 and 2007 is 4.5% of GDP, or about US$90 million in 2006. In 2005 the overall balance of payments was US$14 million. The estimated overall balance of payments for 2006 is US$8 million.[20]
At the end of 2006, Tajikistan's external debt was estimated at US$830 million, most of which was long-term international debt. This amount grew steadily through the 1990s and early 2000s because of state borrowing policy. In 2004 Tajikistan eliminated about 20% of its external debt by exchanging debt to Russia for Russian ownership of the
In the early 2000s, foreign direct investment has remained low because of political and economic instability, corruption, the poor domestic financial system, and Tajikistan's geographic isolation. The establishment of businesses nearly always requires
WTO
Tajikistan joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 2 March 2013, becoming the 159th country to join the organization. The Working Party on the accession of Tajikistan was established by the General Council on 18 July 2001. Tajikistan completed its membership negotiations on 26 October 2012, when the Working Party adopted the accession package. The General Council approved the accession on 10 December 2012. The Working Party held its sixth meeting in July 2011 to continue the examination of Tajikistan's foreign trade regime. As part of bilateral market access negotiations, Tajikistan agreed to lower tariffs on cooking equipment, refrigerators, ovens and water heaters in discussions to gain Thailand's backing. Earlier, the government of Tajikistan confirmed that it had concluded negotiations with Japan, and had received support from the nation for its accession in an agreement signed on July 31, 2012.[40]
See also
References
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{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "INOGATE". Inogate.org. Archived from the original on 18 November 2019. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
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{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) (in Russian) - ^ Decree on creating free economic zones "Panj" and "Sughd", "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-03-14. Retrieved 2010-11-06.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) (in Russian) - ^ "WTO - Tajikistan - Member information". Wto.org. Archived from the original on 2 March 2021. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
External links
- Habib Borjian, Economy of Tajikistan, Encyclopædia Iranica. (mostly about its economic history)