Egyptian Crisis (2011–2014)
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The Egyptian Crisis (
In 2011, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets in an ideologically and socially diverse mass protest movement that ultimately ousted longtime president
During these years of political turmoil, the authority of the state had been threatened, but never collapsed. The demands of the protesters, including, but not limited to: bread, freedom, dignity, and democracy, have not been met. The military became further anchored in Egypt's politics and a maximal repression of revolutionary practices took place under Sisi's regime.
Background
During his presidency, Hosni Mubarak pursued policies similar to those of his predecessor Anwar Sadat, including the adoption of a neoliberal model corrupted by cronyism, and a commitment to the Camp David Accords.[6] He also continued the reduction of the military's influence in Egyptian politics by gradually clearing the ministries from military elites.[7] The Mubarak regime increasingly relied on the police forces, administered by the Ministry of Interior, to manage public dissent.[8] Economic liberalization programs reduced both the state's and the military's role in the economy, leading to a drastic decrease in defense expenditures by 2010.[9] Moreover, Mubarak positioned his son, Gamal Mubarak, as his successor instead of a military officer.[10] Although this gradual reshuffling of power led to tensions between Mubarak's government and the military, his regime was considered stable by experts and its collapse had not been anticipated.[6]
Mubarak's authoritarian rule was characterized by the tight control and repression of sociopolitical opposition.[11] Civil society groups constantly clashed and bargained with the state over their place in public politics. Although being rigorously monitored, political parties, elections, local democratic reforms, protests, administrative courts, and associations were increasingly tolerated as forms of political activity since the 2000s.[12]
The ever-increasing discontent among Egyptian citizens with the authoritarian regime originated in various concerns, ranging from the regime's brutal policing and its use of violence and torture, to corruption and election fraud.
Events
2011 Egyptian uprising
The public resentment against the autocratic leadership of President Hosni Mubarak erupted into mass protests in late January 2011, following the Tunisian revolution that overthrew President Ben Ali in mid-January.[15] Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians occupied several public places across Egypt, with Cairo's Tahrir Square as the hub of the anti-government protests.[16] Their demands were diverse but typically included dignity, bread, freedom, democracy, and social justice.[14]
The
On 11 February 2011, Mubarak resigned as president and handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that had "to manage the affairs of the country".[22][23] Besides eradicating his nearly 30-year authoritarian rule, the nationwide protests marked an unprecedented event in Egypt's history, as it successfully mobilized people from different socioeconomic backgrounds and merged them into one coalition against the government.[6][13] The 18-day uprising left at least 846 civilians killed and more than 6,400 injured, according to a report commissioned by the Morsi-regime.[24][25] Human rights activists have been calling for a serious investigation of the real number of revolution victims, as "the total number of casualties could be far higher".[26]
Transition under the SCAF regime
Following
However, the popular support for the military started to crumble and different civilian groups called for the end of military rule during renewed mass protests.[11] Legislative elections were held from November 2011 to January 2012 and led to a victory of Islamist parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party occupying the majority of parliamentary seats and the Salafist's al-Nour Party winning another quarter of the seats.[7] Subsequently, the presidential election was held in May and June 2012, and has been considered by many as the first free presidential election in Egypt's history.[28] A ruling by the Supreme Constitutional Court, declaring the legislative election unconstitutional, led to the dissolution of the newly elected parliament in June 2012, just before the final round of the presidential election.[23][29] Moreover, on 17 June 2012, the last day of the presidential election, the SCAF released a constitutional declaration that significantly limited the power of the next president and considerably extended the political power of the military officials.[30] These actions were a blow to the Muslim Brotherhood, which denounced it as a coup, and further consolidated the military's role as powerbroker in the post-Mubarak period.[28]
Presidency of Mohamed Morsi
In June 2012,
Morsi's regime was contested by a constellation of forces comprising the military, the security forces, the judiciary, and secularists, in what has been described as a "not-so-secret" parallel government aiming at its overthrow.[23] Disagreement over the constitutional process, Morsi's perceived incompetence, internal problems within the Brotherhood, and the failure to deal with some of the country's main issues, such as shortages of basic necessities, further challenged his rule.[11][36] In February 2013, the Salafist's also withdrew their support from the president and soon after, the public resentment erupted into a campaign calling for his resignation and nation-wide demonstrations.
2013 protests and military coup
In April 2013, a grassroots movement known as Tamarod, or "rebellion", claimed to have collected 20 millions of signatures on a petition calling for new presidential elections and the suspension of the new constitution.[11] The independence of Tamarod has been questioned, as its campaign was allegedly supported and funded by the SCAF and the security forces.[23][36] On 30 June 2013, the first anniversary of Morsi's inauguration was marked by mass demonstrations for, but mostly against Morsi, in which thousands of protesters surrounded the Heliopolis presidential palace demanding the resignation of Morsi.[37] The military drew on the public resentment by issuing a 48-hour ultimatum that forced Morsi to reach a compromise with his opponents, but the president did not give in and insisted that he was the legitimate leader.[38]
The military has been accused of exaggerating the size of the anti-Morsi protests, claiming figures of 15 and 17 million of protesters, up to 30 million.[39][40][41][42] Independent observers have set the crowd scale at 1 to 2 million.[43] On 3 July 2013, the Egyptian Armed Forces, headed by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, acted on its 48-hour ultimatum by carrying out a popularly supported coup d'état ousting President Mohamed Morsi.[44] In one day, the generals subsequently removed Morsi from office and imprisoned him, suspended the constitution, appointed Adly Mansour, chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, as interim president, and called for early elections.[23]
Post-coup unrest
The
On 24 March 2014, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 suspected members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death, accused of attacking a police station.[52][53] Since the coup, approximately 60,000 people have been arrested or charged by the Egyptian authorities, which mainly targeted the Muslim Brotherhood.[54]
2014 election of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
General
Impact
Counterrevolution
In the period between 2011 and 2014, multiple power centers, including the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists, emerged and competed for power. However, the military permanently played a key role throughout the different events that constituted this juncture.[11] The army's generals carefully sought to manage each episode, and succeeded in maintaining power despite the country's political transitions. In fact, the military had always dominated Egypt's politics since the establishment of the first republic in 1952.[7] With the installation of President el-Sisi, who removed Morsi in a military coup, the military's political and economic grip on the state has been fully consolidated in what has been called "a counterrevolutionary regime".[11][63] Meanwhile, there has been a maximal repression of the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups.[21] Any form of public dissent, including the right to protest and freedom of the press, is strongly restricted by Sisi's repressive regime.[64] Human rights organizations have accused Sisi's authoritarian regime of using torture and enforced disappearances to crush political opponents and criminal suspects.[65][66]
Sisi's regime is not simply a continuation of Mubarak's repressive rule, but a regime aiming at the eradication of all the revolutionary elements that developed during Mubarak's final years and have thrived since the 2011 uprisings.[11] Sisi's policy of counterrevolution led many analysts to evaluate the Egyptian revolution as a "failed revolution".[67][68][69][70] However, critics of this view have assessed the period between 2011 and 2014 from a different perspective. It is argued that this period began without clear revolutionary intentions and has been terminated without a revolutionary outcome. Therefore, this turbulent period has also been described as a "revolutionary situation",[11] an "authoritarian breakdown",[71] a "constitutional revolution",[72] and, as a "revolutionary process" followed by "two waves of counterrevolution".[73] The discussion relates to broader reflections on the Arab Spring, described by Asef Bayat as "political upheavals that were both revolutionary and non-revolutionary".[11]
Socio-economic impact
In the years since the 2011 revolution, the Egyptian economy suffered from a severe downturn.[23] The post-revolutionary governments faced numerous economic challenges while none of the government's met the demands of the people, such as high unemployment, crony capitalism, and widening income gaps.[74] Political and institutional uncertainty, a perception of rising insecurity and sporadic unrest continued to negatively affect Egypt's economic situation.[75] Since 2011, the government deficit was supplemented with an additional 10% every year, and the country's domestic and foreign debt stood well beyond 100% of the GDP in 2015.[76] Tourism, crucial to Egypt's economy as one of its main sources of revenue, sharply dropped between 2010 and 2015 by an estimated 50%.[23]
When
Sinai insurgency
Since the
In 2014, the most powerful militia in the Sinai, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and formed their own branch of Islamic State in the Sinai Province.[4] They claimed responsibility over an attack in which more than 30 Egyptian soldiers were killed, being marked as the deadliest assault on security forces since 2011.[83] Multiple major offensives by the Egyptian army since 2014 neither crushed the Bedouin militants, nor the jihadi groups. As a reaction on the aggressive political and military measures, their insurgent actions only became bolder, with waves of attacks in 2015, 2016, and 2017 on the army, Coptic Christians, and the Sufi community in the region. Their actions included the downing of a Russian passenger plane on 31 October 2015, killing all 224 aboard.[85]
See also
- Arab Spring
- 2011 Egyptian revolution
- History of republican Egypt
- History of Egypt under Hosni Mubarak
- Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
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Further reading
- ISSN 1862-3611.