Flattening the curve
Flattening the curve is a public health strategy to slow down the spread of an epidemic, used against the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The curve being flattened is the epidemic curve, a visual representation of the number of infected people needing health care over time. During an epidemic, a health care system can break down when the number of people infected exceeds the capability of the health care system's ability to take care of them. Flattening the curve means slowing the spread of the epidemic so that the peak number of people requiring care at a time is reduced, and the health care system does not exceed its capacity. Flattening the curve relies on mitigation techniques such as hand washing, use of face masks and social distancing.
A complementary measure is to increase health care capacity, to "raise the line".
Experts differentiate between "
Background
In a situation like this, when a sizable new epidemic emerges, a portion of infected and symptomatic patients create an increase in the demand for health care that has only been predicted statistically, without the start date of the epidemic nor the infectivity and lethality known in advance.[4] If the demand surpasses the capacity line in the infections per day curve, then the existing health facilities cannot fully handle the patients, resulting in higher death rates than if preparations had been made.[4]
An influential UK study showed that an unmitigated COVID-19 response in the UK could have required up to 46 times the number of available ICU beds.[12] One major public health management challenge is to keep the epidemic wave of incoming patients needing material and human health care resources supplied in a sufficient amount that is considered medically justified.[4]
Flattening the curve
Raising the line
Along with the efforts to flatten the curve is the need for a parallel effort to "raise the line", to increase the capacity of the health care system.
During the COVID-19 pandemic
This section needs to be updated. The reason given is: Was the curve flattened?.(September 2022) |
The concept was popular during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.[16]
According to
According to The Nation, territories with weak finances and health care capacity such as Puerto Rico face an uphill battle to raise the line, and therefore a higher imperative pressure to flatten the curve.[5]
In March 2020,
By 2021, the phrase "flatten the curve" had largely fallen out of medical messaging etymology.[19][20]
See also
- SIR model
- Basic reproduction number (R0)
- Quarantine
- Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
- List of countries by hospital beds
References
- ^ Wiles, Siouxsie (9 March 2020). "The three phases of Covid-19—and how we can make it manageable". The Spinoff. Morningside, Auckland, New Zealand. Archived from the original on 27 March 2020. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
- ^ a b c d Barclay, Eliza (7 April 2020). "Chart: The US doesn't just need to flatten the curve. It needs to "raise the line."". Vox. Archived from the original on 7 April 2020. Retrieved 7 April 2020.
- PMID 32269067. ("...initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak.")
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Beating Coronavirus: Flattening the Curve, Raising the Line (YouTube video). Retrieved 12 April 2020.
- ^ from the original on 12 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
- PMID 33932328.
- PMID 32505220.
- S2CID 221538577.
- ^ "Wanted: world leaders to answer the coronavirus pandemic alarm". South China Morning Post. 31 March 2020. Archived from the original on 9 April 2020. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
- from the original on 25 March 2020. Retrieved 25 March 2020.
- ^ "Pénurie de masques : une responsabilité partagée par les gouvernements" [Lack of masks: a responsibility shared by governments]. Public Senat (in French). 23 March 2020. Archived from the original on 9 April 2020. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
- ^ Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (16 March 2020). "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 March 2020. Retrieved 23 March 2020 – via imperial.ac.uk.
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "'Flatten the curve' was everywhere, but it didn't change people's pandemic attitudes". news.wisc.edu. Retrieved 24 October 2023.
- ^ Dudley, Joshua. "Q&A: Dr. Rishi Desai Talks To Medical Professionals About What We Can Learn From COVID-19". Forbes. Archived from the original on 12 June 2020. Retrieved 18 June 2020.
- ^ Stevens, Harry (14 March 2020). "These simulations show how to flatten the coronavirus growth curve". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 30 March 2020. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
- from the original on 11 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
- ^ Vox.com. Archivedfrom the original on 20 December 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
- ^ a b c d Edlin, Aaron (March 2020). "Don't just flatten the curve: Raise the line" (PDF). p. 2. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020 – via berkeley.edu.
- ^ "We haven't failed on the virus". Australian Financial Review. 29 June 2021. Retrieved 2 July 2021.
- ^ Scott, Dylan (31 December 2020). "Flattening the curve worked — until it didn't". Vox. Retrieved 2 July 2021.