2017 French Socialist Party presidential primary

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Socialist Party presidential primary, 2017

← 2011 22 and 29 January 2017 2021 →
  Benoît Hamon Manuel Valls
Candidate Benoît Hamon Manuel Valls
Party PS PS
Popular vote 596,647 521,238
Share 36.51% 31.90%
Popular vote (runoff) 1,181,872 831,871
Share (runoff) 58.69% 41.31%

Results of the first round by department and region

Results of the second round by department and region

Previous Socialist nominee

François Hollande

Presumptive Socialist nominee

Benoît Hamon

The

primary in 2011 in which François Hollande defeated Martine Aubry to become the Socialist nominee. Hollande went on to defeat incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 presidential election. However, because of his low approval rating, he announced that he would not seek re-election, becoming the first president of the Fifth Republic
to decide not to run for a second term. The primary was contested by seven candidates, four from the Socialist Party and three representing other parties part of the left-wing electoral alliance (la Belle Alliance populaire).

The three frontrunners in the first round of the primary were

Minister of the Economy, Production Recovery and the Digital Sector
from 2012 to 2014. On 22 January, Hamon received 36.03% and Valls 31.48% of the vote in the first round and advanced to the runoff, far ahead of all other candidates and well ahead of Montebourg, who was eliminated and immediately endorsed Hamon. In the runoff, Hamon easily defeated Valls, beating the ex-PM by nearly 20 percentage points, and officially took the mantle as nominee of the PS in the 2017 presidential election.

Background

At the 2012

Union of Democrats and Ecologists (UDE) – in addition to all those who supported the primary process.[4]

The PRG suspended its participation in the Belle Alliance populaire (BAP) of left-wing forces on 29 June 2016, denouncing the Socialist Party's unilateral decision to run a primary,

Democratic Front (FD) – were determined by the respective parties' leadership.[12]

The EELV declared on 20 June that it would not participate in the primary,

En Marche! also declined to participate,[15] as did Jean-Luc Mélenchon under the banner of La France Insoumise, saying that he did not want to run in a primary with François Hollande since he would not be able to support Hollande if he won.[16] He later reaffirmed this by saying that with the exclusion of the EELV and PRG the primary was not truly "of the left" but a "primary of the Socialist Party".[17] On 1 December, Hollande declared that he would not seek a second term, becoming the first President of the Fifth Republic to renounce a reelection bid. His announcement reflected his high personal unpopularity and resentment among Socialist colleagues regarding remarks he made about cabinet members and other associates in the book Un président ne devrait pas dire ça... (A president should not say that...) by Gérard Davet and Fabrice Lhomme, journalists at Le Monde.[18]

On 17 December, the High Authority of the open primary declared that seven candidates qualified to appear on the ballot, including four from the Socialist Party – former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, and Vincent Peillon – the other three being François de Rugy of the PE, Sylvia Pinel of the PRG, and Jean-Luc Bennahmias of the PD.[19]

Candidacies

Arnaud Montebourg during his 2011 campaign for the Socialist nomination

Former economy minister

Christian Paul, chief among the party's rebels, having had a part in the foundation of the New Socialist Party caucus along with Montebourg, Laurent Baumel and Patrice Prat.[20] Montebourg officially declared his candidacy on 16 August, decrying Hollande's betrayal of the "ideals of the left" in Frangy-en-Bresse in his home département of Saône-et-Loire, and laid out an anti-globalization campaign platform based on protectionism for French businesses, threats to nationalize predatory banks, and tax breaks for the middle class, themes which became central to his campaign.[21] These themes were reflective of his combative tenure as economy minister, in which he threatened to nationalize divisions of ArcelorMittal and attempted but ultimately failed to prevent General Electric's partial acquisition of French multinational Alstom.[22]

Former French education minister

First Valls Government in August 2014.[22] On 1 December 2016, incumbent President François Hollande announced in a televised address from the Élysée Palace that he would not seek a second term in office, clearing the way for Valls to enter the race,[18] who subsequently announced his candidacy on 5 December.[25]

Vincent Peillon speaking at the Maison de la Mutualité in 2013

Valls, Montebourg, and Hamon ultimately became the main three contenders for the Socialist nomination, but several other candidates ultimately participated in the primary. Former Minister of National Education

EELV in August 2015 over concerns about the party pandering to its left wing;[27] Sylvia Pinel of the Radical Party of the Left (PRG), and Jean-Luc Bennahmias, who left the Democratic Movement to found his own centre-left party, the Democratic Front.[22]

Several other candidates also filed petitions to run in the primary, including Senator

Campaign

Polling: Who was the most convincing candidate during this debate?
Debate Poll source Among all respondents Among left-wing sympathizers
Valls Montebourg Hamon Valls Montebourg Hamon
1 Elabe* 26% 29% 20% 28% 23% 27%
Odoxa** 27% 33% 20% 34% 25% 27%
Harris**† 29% 20% 22% 31% 17% 32%
2 Elabe* 26% 29% 25% 28% 24% 30%
Harris**† 23% 30% 26% 27% 24% 36%
3 Elabe* 21% 28% 29% 24% 23% 34%
OpinionWay*†† 19% 20% 24% 25% 23% 32%
Harris**† 24% 26% 28% 25% 26% 34%
* conducted among viewers of the debate
** among those aware of the debate
†excluding "none of these candidates"
††among those intending to vote in the primary as opposed to left-wing sympathizers

The unpopularity of incumbent president Hollande led to widespread speculation as to whether he would choose to run for re-election, facing fierce competition within his own party in the Socialist primary; when he ultimately renounced his candidacy on 1 December 2016,[18] he cleared the way for prime minister Manuel Valls to enter the field on 5 December.[25] Valls, considered the "natural successor" to Hollande and whose attempts to modernize the Socialist Party have been characterized as similar to those of Tony Blair with the British Labour Party, earned a reputation for his law-and-order approach as prime minister, instituting business-friendly supply-side reforms and taking a tough position on migration, at one point even questioning whether Islam was compatible with the French Republic; all these views placed him well to the right wing of his party. Valls' important role in Hollande's government resulted in him becoming similarly unpopular, even within his own party and on the left.[22][32]

On 15 December, he declared that if elected president, he would abolish article 49-3, an executive degree enshrined within the Constitution of France. He controversially used it as prime minister to force laws through the National Assembly, bypassing legislative approval, to send them directly to the Senate,[33] and his repudiation of the 49-3 was met with derision, Valls having used it to force through controversial labour reforms in the El Khomri law and the reformist Macron law, moves often described as indicative of his authoritarian tendencies.[34] Valls further attempted to portray himself as a candidate "profoundly of the left" by backing down on his earlier tough tone towards labour, promising not to institute any further reforms to France's 35-hour workweek – beloved by the French left – nor its labour laws, instead taking an anti-austerity tone; despite this, his campaign was overshadowed by past policies such as the abolition of the wealth tax.[35]

Unveiling his platform on 3 January 2017, he proposed a 2.5% increase in public spending contingent on annual economic growth of 1.9% while keeping the deficit below the 3% of GDP requirement mandated by the Stability and Growth Pact, the creation a "decent income" of €800 for all adult French nationals, halving the gender pay gap in France, a "pause" in the enlargement of the European Union, the addition of a charter of secularism to the Constitution, and the consolidation of the nuclear industry.[36][37] Valls was physically attacked twice during the campaign; the first incident occurred on 22 December 2016, in which he was flour-bombed by a protester screaming "We do not forget the 49-3. We don't forgive it," a reference to his claim that he would abolish the constitutional provision he twice used to bypass legislative approval, during a visit to a Christmas market in Strasbourg.[38] The second incident, on 17 January 2017, involved an apparent Breton nationalist who slapped him during a campaign stop in Lamballe; although Valls initially brushed the episode off, saying "it's nothing,"[39] he later made to press charges, saying "Democracy cannot be about violence."[40]

Benoît Hamon at a meeting of supporters in Saint-Denis

Valls' most prominent opponent was initially considered to be former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg,[35] who formally unveiled his platform in Paris on 3 January. The left-wing firebrand proclaimed that French employees should receive wage rises equivalent to executives' in order to constrain corporate pay and called for a "supertax" on banks to raise €5 billion a year. Challenged by former education minister Benoît Hamon, who argued that the focus on economic growth and employment is misplaced, Montebourg argued that the prior was a "necessity" and claimed that he "challenged the theory of the end of work." He also criticized a perceived European obsession with austerity, condemning it as the cause of the country's persistently high rates of unemployment and dismal economic growth, promising to "liberate the French from European-imposed austerity."[41] He also pledged during the campaign that he would not comply with EU deficit rules, in contrast to Valls, embark upon an "economic patriotism" (described as protectionism by some observers), reserve 80 percent of government contracts for French small businesses, reinstate border controls, repeal the El Khomri jobs bill, defend small domestic businesses, warn that he might engage in a trade war against China, and support a €30 billion infrastructure plan.[42][43]

Montebourg's months-long position in second place, however, was challenged by a surge of support for

the primary of the centre-right Republicans party, his rise propelled by his championing of left-wing values and vision of a society that spends less time working, enjoys higher pay, and emphasizes the importance GDP growth less. Hamon has also decried "neoconservatives" and "even those on the left" who wished to restrict the rights of French Muslims, a less-than-subtle denunciation of Valls's hardline stance on immigration.[24] His proposal for a universal income has been his signature policy; in the final primary debate, he insisted that it "creates work" and "allows employees to reduce their workdays, and it can further contract and eradicate poverty," and post-debate polls indicated left-wing voters consistently viewed Hamon as being the most convincing candidate.[43]

Three debates were held before the first round of the primary. The first, syndicated by

I-TV, aired at 18:00 CET on 15 January, moderated by Ruth Elkrief, Laurence Ferrari, and Laurent Neumann; the third, by France 2, Europe 1, LCP, TV5Monde, and regional daily newspapers, aired at 21:00 CET on 19 January, moderated by David Pujadas, Léa Salamé, and Fabien Namias. The first debate attracted 3.83 million viewers, representing an audience share of 18.3%;[44] the second 1.75 million, representing a share of 7.9%;[45] and the third 3.07 million, a share of 15%.[46]

First round

Numerical gain by candidate[47]
Hamon
127,973
Valls
109,511
Montebourg
61,634
Peillon
24,103
de Rugy
13,603
Pinel
7,046
Bennahmias
3,563
Spoilt and null votes
4,580
Percentage gain by candidate[47]
Hamon
28.18534009%
Valls
28.18068826%
Montebourg
28.15816525%
Peillon
28.16593631%
de Rugy
28.03528369%
Pinel
28.57606359%
Bennahmias
28.25759378%
Spoilt and null votes
28.21065599%

Hamon came on top in the first round of the primary, followed by Valls; as neither of the two secured more than 50% of the vote, a second round was held on 29 January. Montebourg, relegated to third place, conceded defeat and pledged to vote for Hamon in the second round. Peillon came fourth, de Rugy fifth, Pinel sixth, and Bennahmias last. Of these four candidates, Pinel backed Valls in the second round; Peillon did not endorse but encouraged voters to mobilize; and de Rugy also chose not to endorse immediately afterwards, hoping to meet the top two contenders on 23 January to decide. Only 7,350 polling stations were open during the primary, compared to 9,425 in the

primary of the right.[48] Meanwhile, Bennahmias, with just over 1% of the primary vote, did not initially endorse any candidate and expressed his intent to announce a decision on 25 January;[49] he ultimately backed Valls.[50]

An overnight update of the official primary results published 10:00 CET on 23 January added approximately three hundred thousand votes, without any change in the vote share of any candidate, arousing suspicions among observers and the French press. Two hours later, an update to the total of votes obtained by Sylvia Pinel was published, increasing her vote share by 0.01% (i.e., 160 additional votes). However, the total number of votes for Pinel increased by 161, more than the total number of overall votes, with changes to no other candidates. The results were initially speculated to have been manipulated into inflate the apparent turnout, which was low compared to past primaries.[51] The PS initially attributed the results to a "bug", but later conceded that it had been a result of "human error." However, the French press remained skeptical, noting the improbability of a nearly-identical 28% increase in votes for all seven candidates.[47] There was also additional confusion, even prior to reports about the potential manipulation of vote totals, surrounding the number of polling stations open (which, according to PS, is fewer than 7,350 because many were merged with others) and the vagueness of PS officials on primary turnout, compounded by the fact that no comprehensive public record of primary results was published.[49]

Second round

The second round runoff was held on 29 January between Benoît Hamon and Manuel Valls. An additional debate was held before the second round, syndicated between France Inter, TF1, and France 2 at 21:00 CET on 25 January, moderated by Gilles Bouleau, David Pujadas, and Alexandra Bensaid, after which an Elabe poll found that 60% of viewers were most convinced by Hamon, compared to 37% for Valls; the margin was 61–36 among left-wing sympathizers.[52] In the second round of the primary on 29 January, Hamon defeated Valls, by a comfortable margin, with 58.69% of votes against 41.31%; turnout, at 2.05 million, was considerably higher than that in the first round. As the winner of the primary, Hamon was designated the Socialist nominee for the presidential election.[53]

Aftermath

On 22 February, François de Rugy announced his support for Emmanuel Macron, breaking the commitment requested of former candidates to back the winner of the primary, stating that he preferred "coherence to obedience," albeit acknowledging that Hamon was the legitimate nominee of the PS.[54] On 13 March, Le Parisien reported that Valls, rather than backing Socialist nominee Benoît Hamon, would urge voters to support Macron in the first round of the presidential election;[55] Valls denied the report at the time,[56] but declared on 29 March that he personally would vote for Macron, but did not rally behind his candidacy.[57] On 15 March, the PRG announced its support for Hamon's candidacy, securing concessions on issues pertaining to European governance, and confirmed an agreement with the Socialist Party for the legislative elections; this followed a period of hesitation after the primary in which the party contemplated the candidacy of Macron, who secured the support of several of its parliamentarians.[58]

Candidates

Candidate (name and age)[59] Political offices Supporters
Jean-Luc Bennahmias[60]
(62)
Jean-Luc Bennahmias President of the
Democratic Front

(since 2014)
Other offices
  • MEP from 2004 to 2014
Pauline Delpech,[61] François-Michel Lambert,[62] Sanseverino[63]
Benoît Hamon[64]
(49)
Benoît Hamon
Yvelines

(2012 and since 2014)
Other offices
  • Minister of National Education, Higher Education and Research in 2014
  • Junior Minister of the
    Minister of the Economy and Finance
    , responsible for Consumer Affairs and the Social and Solidarity Economy from 2012 to 2014
  • Junior Minister of the Minister of the Economy, Finance, and Foreign Trade, responsible for Social and Solidarity Economy in 2012
  • MEP from 2004 to 2009
Arnaud Montebourg[71][72]
(54)
Arnaud Montebourg
Minister of the Economy, Production Recovery and the Digital Sector

(2012–2014)
Other offices
Vincent Peillon[26]
(56)
Vincent Peillon MEP
(2004–12 and since 2014)
Other offices
Sylvia Pinel[85]
(39)
Sylvia Pinel President of the Radical Party of the Left
(since 2016)
MP for Tarn-et-Garonne
(2007–2012 and since 2016)
Other offices
  • Minister of Housing, Regional Equality and Rural Affairs
    from 2014 to 2016
  • Minister of Housing and Regional Equality in 2014
  • Minister of Crafts, Trade, and Tourism from 2012 to 2014
  • Junior Minister of Productive Recovery, responsible for Crafts, Trade, and Tourism in 2012
Jean-Michel Baylet,[65] Thierry Braillard,[86] Jeanine Dubié,[87] Paul Giacobbi,[88] Annick Girardin,[65] Françoise Laborde,[89] Dominique Orliac,[90] Virginie Rozière,[91] Jean-Claude Requier,[90] Raymond Vall,[90] Jean Zuccarelli.[88]
François de Rugy[92][27]
(43)
François de Rugy President of the
Ecologist Party
(since 2015)
MP for Loire-Atlantique

(since 2007)
Other offices
  • Co-president of the Green group in the National Assembly from 2012 to 2015 and 2016
Éric Alauzet,[65] Aline Archimbaud,[65] Christophe Cavard,[65] Emmanuelle Cosse,[65] Véronique Massonneau,[65] Barbara Pompili[65]
Manuel Valls[25]
(54)
Manuel Valls MP for Essonne
(2002–12 and since 2017)
Prime Minister of France
(2014–16)
Other offices

Withdrawn

En Marche!

Declined

Refused to participate

  • En Marche!, standing as an independent in the presidential election[104]
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Left Front MEP, former Minister of Vocational Education and Senator, standing as a far-left candidate in the presidential election[105]

Opinion polls

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Turnout Hamon
PS
Valls
PS
Hollande
PS
Montebourg
PS
Peillon
PS
de Rugy
PE
Pinel
PRG
FD
Filoche
PS
Lienemann
PS
Larrouturou
ND
EM
Aubry
PS
Royal
PS
Taubira
PRG
2017 primary 22 Jan 2017 1,655,919 36.03% 31.48% 17.52% 6.81% 3.83% 2.00% 1.02%
OpinionWay 16–18 Jan 2017 536 2,000,000 28% 37% 24% 5% 1% 3% 2%
BVA 13–16 Jan 2017 536 2,250,000 27% 34% 26% 7% 2% 3% 1%
OpinionWay 9–11 Jan 2017 453 1,900,000 29% 40% 21% 7% 1% 1% 1%
Kantar Sofres 3–6 Jan 2017 488 2,600,000 21% 36% 23% 10% 2% 6% 2%
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine 2–4 Jan 2017 478 22% 43% 25% 7% 1% 2% <0.5%
Harris Interactive 5–7 Dec 2016 541 11% 45% 28% 1% 1% 6% 5% 3%
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 4% of 9,206 13% 44% 32% 1% 3.5% 1% 2.5% 3%
13% 40% 34% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4%
11% 34% 21% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 24%
11% 27% 24% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 28%
BVA 13–20 Sep 2016 4% of 9,255 14% 44% 31% 1.5% 1% 2% 4% 2.5%
14% 43% 33% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2%
Ipsos 9–18 Sep 2016 1,017 16% 41% 32% 1% 1% 5% 4%
16% 43% 31% 1% 1% 4% 4%
Ipsos 1–4 Jul 2016 993 13% 35% 32% 11% 2% 7%
13% 37% 32% 10% 2% 6%
40% 38% 11% 3% 8%
13% 30% 11% 2% 6% 38%
BVA 6–15 Oct 2015 1,012 4% 33% 22% 8% 10% 17% 6%

Second round

Hamon–Valls

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Hamon
PS
Valls
PS
2017 primary 29 Jan 2017 58.69% 41.31%
OpinionWay 16–18 Jan 2017 536 49% 51%
BVA 13–16 Jan 2017 536 52% 48%
OpinionWay 9–11 Jan 2017 453 47% 53%
Kantar Sofres 3–6 Jan 2017 488 50% 50%
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine 2–4 Jan 2017 478 43% 57%

Valls–Montebourg

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Valls
PS
Montebourg
PS
OpinionWay 16–18 Jan 2017 536 51% 49%
BVA 13–16 Jan 2017 536 48% 52%
OpinionWay 9–11 Jan 2017 453 54% 46%
Kantar Sofres 3–6 Jan 2017 488 47% 53%
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine 2–4 Jan 2017 478 55% 45%
Harris Interactive 5–7 Dec 2016 541 51% 49%
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 4% of 9,206 57% 43%
BVA 13–20 Sep 2016 4% of 9,255 51% 49%
Ipsos 9–18 Sep 2016 1,017 49% 51%
Ipsos 1–4 Jul 2016 993 46% 54%

Hollande–Montebourg

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Hollande
PS
Montebourg
PS
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 4% of 9,206 48% 52%
BVA 13–20 Sep 2016 4% of 9,255 48% 52%
Ipsos 9–18 Sep 2016 1,017 50% 50%
Ipsos 1–4 Jul 2016 993 47% 53%

Hollande–Hamon

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Hollande
PS
Hamon
PS
Ipsos 1–4 Jul 2016 993 57% 43%

Valls–Macron

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Valls
PS
EM
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 4% of 9,206 58% 42%

Montebourg–Macron

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Montebourg
PS
EM
Ipsos 1–4 Jul 2016 993 51% 49%

Hollande–Macron

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Hollande
PS
EM
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 4% of 9,206 50.5% 49.5%

Results

Summary of the Socialist Party 22 and 29 January 2017 presidential primary
Candidates Parties 1st round 2nd round
Votes % Votes %
Benoît Hamon Socialist Party PS 596,647 36.03 1,181,872 58.69
Manuel Valls Socialist Party PS 521,238 31.48 831,871 41.31
Arnaud Montebourg Socialist Party PS 290,070 17.52
Vincent Peillon Socialist Party PS 112,718 6.81
François de Rugy
Ecologist Party
63,430 3.83
Sylvia Pinel Radical Party of the Left PRG 33,067 2.00
Jean-Luc Bennahmias
Democratic Front
FD 16,869 1.02
Valid votes 1,634,039 98.68 2,013,743 98.46
Spoilt and null votes 21,880 1.32 31,600 1.54
Total 1,655,919 100% 2,045,343 100%
List of candidates by High Authority.

Source: [1] Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine [2] Archived 2017-04-02 at the Wayback Machine

Non-candidates

Twenty-four applications were filed with the High Authority for the left-wing primary, but not all were made public; of these, several were disqualified for not securing enough sponsors under the rules of the primary.

  • Gérard Filoche, former labor inspector, militant communist[106]
  • Sidi Hamada-Hamidou, member of the Radical Party of the Left (PRG)[107]
  • Maxime Legrand, opposition councillor in Poissy[108]
  • Régis Passerieux, candidate of the PS's Christian faction[109]
  • Fabien Verdier, Socialist Party member, advisor to two cabinet ministers and former town councillor[110]

Several other individuals filed applications which were rejected as they were not members of PS, UDE,

FD
.

See also

References

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