2017 French Socialist Party presidential primary
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Results of the first round by department and region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Results of the second round by department and region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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The
The three frontrunners in the first round of the primary were
Background
At the 2012
The PRG suspended its participation in the Belle Alliance populaire (BAP) of left-wing forces on 29 June 2016, denouncing the Socialist Party's unilateral decision to run a primary,
The EELV declared on 20 June that it would not participate in the primary,
On 17 December, the High Authority of the open primary declared that seven candidates qualified to appear on the ballot, including four from the Socialist Party – former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, and Vincent Peillon – the other three being François de Rugy of the PE, Sylvia Pinel of the PRG, and Jean-Luc Bennahmias of the PD.[19]
Candidacies
Former economy minister
Former French education minister
Valls, Montebourg, and Hamon ultimately became the main three contenders for the Socialist nomination, but several other candidates ultimately participated in the primary. Former Minister of National Education
Several other candidates also filed petitions to run in the primary, including Senator
Campaign
Polling: Who was the most convincing candidate during this debate? | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debate | Poll source | Among all respondents | Among left-wing sympathizers | |||||
Valls | Montebourg | Hamon | Valls | Montebourg | Hamon | |||
1 | Elabe* | 26% | 29% | 20% | 28% | 23% | 27% | |
Odoxa** | 27% | 33% | 20% | 34% | 25% | 27% | ||
Harris**† | 29% | 20% | 22% | 31% | 17% | 32% | ||
2 | Elabe* | 26% | 29% | 25% | 28% | 24% | 30% | |
Harris**† | 23% | 30% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 36% | ||
3 | Elabe* | 21% | 28% | 29% | 24% | 23% | 34% | |
OpinionWay*†† | 19% | 20% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 32% | ||
Harris**† | 24% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 26% | 34% | ||
* conducted among viewers of the debate ** among those aware of the debate †excluding "none of these candidates" ††among those intending to vote in the primary as opposed to left-wing sympathizers |
The unpopularity of incumbent president Hollande led to widespread speculation as to whether he would choose to run for re-election, facing fierce competition within his own party in the Socialist primary; when he ultimately renounced his candidacy on 1 December 2016,[18] he cleared the way for prime minister Manuel Valls to enter the field on 5 December.[25] Valls, considered the "natural successor" to Hollande and whose attempts to modernize the Socialist Party have been characterized as similar to those of Tony Blair with the British Labour Party, earned a reputation for his law-and-order approach as prime minister, instituting business-friendly supply-side reforms and taking a tough position on migration, at one point even questioning whether Islam was compatible with the French Republic; all these views placed him well to the right wing of his party. Valls' important role in Hollande's government resulted in him becoming similarly unpopular, even within his own party and on the left.[22][32]
On 15 December, he declared that if elected president, he would abolish article 49-3, an executive degree enshrined within the Constitution of France. He controversially used it as prime minister to force laws through the National Assembly, bypassing legislative approval, to send them directly to the Senate,[33] and his repudiation of the 49-3 was met with derision, Valls having used it to force through controversial labour reforms in the El Khomri law and the reformist Macron law, moves often described as indicative of his authoritarian tendencies.[34] Valls further attempted to portray himself as a candidate "profoundly of the left" by backing down on his earlier tough tone towards labour, promising not to institute any further reforms to France's 35-hour workweek – beloved by the French left – nor its labour laws, instead taking an anti-austerity tone; despite this, his campaign was overshadowed by past policies such as the abolition of the wealth tax.[35]
Unveiling his platform on 3 January 2017, he proposed a 2.5% increase in public spending contingent on annual economic growth of 1.9% while keeping the deficit below the 3% of GDP requirement mandated by the Stability and Growth Pact, the creation a "decent income" of €800 for all adult French nationals, halving the gender pay gap in France, a "pause" in the enlargement of the European Union, the addition of a charter of secularism to the Constitution, and the consolidation of the nuclear industry.[36][37] Valls was physically attacked twice during the campaign; the first incident occurred on 22 December 2016, in which he was flour-bombed by a protester screaming "We do not forget the 49-3. We don't forgive it," a reference to his claim that he would abolish the constitutional provision he twice used to bypass legislative approval, during a visit to a Christmas market in Strasbourg.[38] The second incident, on 17 January 2017, involved an apparent Breton nationalist who slapped him during a campaign stop in Lamballe; although Valls initially brushed the episode off, saying "it's nothing,"[39] he later made to press charges, saying "Democracy cannot be about violence."[40]
Valls' most prominent opponent was initially considered to be former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg,[35] who formally unveiled his platform in Paris on 3 January. The left-wing firebrand proclaimed that French employees should receive wage rises equivalent to executives' in order to constrain corporate pay and called for a "supertax" on banks to raise €5 billion a year. Challenged by former education minister Benoît Hamon, who argued that the focus on economic growth and employment is misplaced, Montebourg argued that the prior was a "necessity" and claimed that he "challenged the theory of the end of work." He also criticized a perceived European obsession with austerity, condemning it as the cause of the country's persistently high rates of unemployment and dismal economic growth, promising to "liberate the French from European-imposed austerity."[41] He also pledged during the campaign that he would not comply with EU deficit rules, in contrast to Valls, embark upon an "economic patriotism" (described as protectionism by some observers), reserve 80 percent of government contracts for French small businesses, reinstate border controls, repeal the El Khomri jobs bill, defend small domestic businesses, warn that he might engage in a trade war against China, and support a €30 billion infrastructure plan.[42][43]
Montebourg's months-long position in second place, however, was challenged by a surge of support for
Three debates were held before the first round of the primary. The first, syndicated by
First round
Hamon came on top in the first round of the primary, followed by Valls; as neither of the two secured more than 50% of the vote, a second round was held on 29 January. Montebourg, relegated to third place, conceded defeat and pledged to vote for Hamon in the second round. Peillon came fourth, de Rugy fifth, Pinel sixth, and Bennahmias last. Of these four candidates, Pinel backed Valls in the second round; Peillon did not endorse but encouraged voters to mobilize; and de Rugy also chose not to endorse immediately afterwards, hoping to meet the top two contenders on 23 January to decide. Only 7,350 polling stations were open during the primary, compared to 9,425 in the
An overnight update of the official primary results published 10:00 CET on 23 January added approximately three hundred thousand votes, without any change in the vote share of any candidate, arousing suspicions among observers and the French press. Two hours later, an update to the total of votes obtained by Sylvia Pinel was published, increasing her vote share by 0.01% (i.e., 160 additional votes). However, the total number of votes for Pinel increased by 161, more than the total number of overall votes, with changes to no other candidates. The results were initially speculated to have been manipulated into inflate the apparent turnout, which was low compared to past primaries.[51] The PS initially attributed the results to a "bug", but later conceded that it had been a result of "human error." However, the French press remained skeptical, noting the improbability of a nearly-identical 28% increase in votes for all seven candidates.[47] There was also additional confusion, even prior to reports about the potential manipulation of vote totals, surrounding the number of polling stations open (which, according to PS, is fewer than 7,350 because many were merged with others) and the vagueness of PS officials on primary turnout, compounded by the fact that no comprehensive public record of primary results was published.[49]
Second round
The second round runoff was held on 29 January between Benoît Hamon and Manuel Valls. An additional debate was held before the second round, syndicated between France Inter, TF1, and France 2 at 21:00 CET on 25 January, moderated by Gilles Bouleau, David Pujadas, and Alexandra Bensaid, after which an Elabe poll found that 60% of viewers were most convinced by Hamon, compared to 37% for Valls; the margin was 61–36 among left-wing sympathizers.[52] In the second round of the primary on 29 January, Hamon defeated Valls, by a comfortable margin, with 58.69% of votes against 41.31%; turnout, at 2.05 million, was considerably higher than that in the first round. As the winner of the primary, Hamon was designated the Socialist nominee for the presidential election.[53]
Aftermath
On 22 February, François de Rugy announced his support for Emmanuel Macron, breaking the commitment requested of former candidates to back the winner of the primary, stating that he preferred "coherence to obedience," albeit acknowledging that Hamon was the legitimate nominee of the PS.[54] On 13 March, Le Parisien reported that Valls, rather than backing Socialist nominee Benoît Hamon, would urge voters to support Macron in the first round of the presidential election;[55] Valls denied the report at the time,[56] but declared on 29 March that he personally would vote for Macron, but did not rally behind his candidacy.[57] On 15 March, the PRG announced its support for Hamon's candidacy, securing concessions on issues pertaining to European governance, and confirmed an agreement with the Socialist Party for the legislative elections; this followed a period of hesitation after the primary in which the party contemplated the candidacy of Macron, who secured the support of several of its parliamentarians.[58]
Candidates
Withdrawn
- Marie-Noëlle Lienemann, Senator[28]
- Marc Jutier, PS member; joined Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise[95]
Declined
- Martine Aubry, mayor of Lille, former Minister of Social Affairs, Minister of Labour, Employment and Vocational Training, Socialist leader, and 2012 presidential candidate[96]
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Development[97]
- Annick Girardin, PRG member and Minister of the Civil Service; endorsed the candidacy of Sylvia Pinel[98]
- Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris; endorsed the candidacy of Vincent Peillon[99]
- François Hollande, incumbent President of France[100]
- Ségolène Royal, 2007 Socialist Party presidential candidate, incumbent Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy[101]
- Christiane Taubira, former Minister of Justice[101]
- Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, Minister of Education, Higher Education and Research; endorsed the candidacy of Manuel Valls[103]
Refused to participate
- En Marche!, standing as an independent in the presidential election[104]
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Left Front MEP, former Minister of Vocational Education and Senator, standing as a far-left candidate in the presidential election[105]
Opinion polls
First round
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Turnout | Hamon PS |
Valls PS |
Hollande PS |
Montebourg PS |
Peillon PS |
de Rugy PE |
Pinel PRG |
FD
|
Filoche PS |
Lienemann PS |
Larrouturou ND |
EM
|
Aubry PS |
Royal PS |
Taubira PRG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 primary | 22 Jan 2017 | – | 1,655,919 | 36.03% | 31.48% | – | 17.52% | 6.81% | 3.83% | 2.00% | 1.02% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
OpinionWay | 16–18 Jan 2017 | 536 | 2,000,000 | 28% | 37% | – | 24% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
BVA | 13–16 Jan 2017 | 536 | 2,250,000 | 27% | 34% | – | 26% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
OpinionWay | 9–11 Jan 2017 | 453 | 1,900,000 | 29% | 40% | – | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Kantar Sofres | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 488 | 2,600,000 | 21% | 36% | – | 23% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine | 2–4 Jan 2017 | 478 | – | 22% | 43% | – | 25% | 7% | 1% | 2% | <0.5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Harris Interactive | 5–7 Dec 2016 | 541 | – | 11% | 45% | – | 28% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 6% | 5% | 3% | – | – | – | – |
BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 4% of 9,206 | – | 13% | 44% | – | 32% | – | 1% | 3.5% | 1% | 2.5% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – |
13% | – | 40% | 34% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
11% | 34% | – | 21% | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | – | 24% | – | – | – | ||||
11% | – | 27% | 24% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | – | 28% | – | – | – | ||||
BVA | 13–20 Sep 2016 | 4% of 9,255 | – | 14% | 44% | – | 31% | – | 1.5% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2.5% | – | – | – | – | – |
14% | – | 43% | 33% | – | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Ipsos | 9–18 Sep 2016 | 1,017 | – | 16% | 41% | – | 32% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – |
16% | – | 43% | 31% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 4% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Ipsos | 1–4 Jul 2016 | 993 | – | 13% | 35% | – | 32% | – | 11% | 2% | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
13% | – | 37% | 32% | – | 10% | 2% | – | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
– | – | 40% | 38% | – | 11% | 3% | – | – | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
13% | – | – | 30% | – | 11% | 2% | – | – | 6% | – | 38% | – | – | – | ||||
BVA | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 1,012 | – | 4% | 33% | 22% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 17% | 6% |
Second round
Hamon–Valls
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Hamon PS |
Valls PS |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 primary | 29 Jan 2017 | – | 58.69% | 41.31% |
OpinionWay | 16–18 Jan 2017 | 536 | 49% | 51% |
BVA | 13–16 Jan 2017 | 536 | 52% | 48% |
OpinionWay | 9–11 Jan 2017 | 453 | 47% | 53% |
Kantar Sofres | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 488 | 50% | 50% |
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine | 2–4 Jan 2017 | 478 | 43% | 57% |
Valls–Montebourg
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Valls PS |
Montebourg PS |
---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWay | 16–18 Jan 2017 | 536 | 51% | 49% |
BVA | 13–16 Jan 2017 | 536 | 48% | 52% |
OpinionWay | 9–11 Jan 2017 | 453 | 54% | 46% |
Kantar Sofres | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 488 | 47% | 53% |
Harris Interactive Archived 2017-01-06 at the Wayback Machine | 2–4 Jan 2017 | 478 | 55% | 45% |
Harris Interactive | 5–7 Dec 2016 | 541 | 51% | 49% |
BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 4% of 9,206 | 57% | 43% |
BVA | 13–20 Sep 2016 | 4% of 9,255 | 51% | 49% |
Ipsos | 9–18 Sep 2016 | 1,017 | 49% | 51% |
Ipsos | 1–4 Jul 2016 | 993 | 46% | 54% |
Hollande–Montebourg
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Hollande PS |
Montebourg PS |
---|---|---|---|---|
BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 4% of 9,206 | 48% | 52% |
BVA | 13–20 Sep 2016 | 4% of 9,255 | 48% | 52% |
Ipsos | 9–18 Sep 2016 | 1,017 | 50% | 50% |
Ipsos | 1–4 Jul 2016 | 993 | 47% | 53% |
Hollande–Hamon
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Hollande PS |
Hamon PS |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos | 1–4 Jul 2016 | 993 | 57% | 43% |
Valls–Macron
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Valls PS |
EM
|
---|---|---|---|---|
BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 4% of 9,206 | 58% | 42% |
Montebourg–Macron
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Montebourg PS |
EM
|
---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos | 1–4 Jul 2016 | 993 | 51% | 49% |
Hollande–Macron
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Hollande PS |
EM
|
---|---|---|---|---|
BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 4% of 9,206 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Results
Candidates | Parties | 1st round | 2nd round | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||
Benoît Hamon | Socialist Party | PS | 596,647 | 36.03 | 1,181,872 | 58.69 | |
Manuel Valls | Socialist Party | PS | 521,238 | 31.48 | 831,871 | 41.31 | |
Arnaud Montebourg | Socialist Party | PS | 290,070 | 17.52 | |||
Vincent Peillon | Socialist Party | PS | 112,718 | 6.81 | |||
François de Rugy | Ecologist Party
|
PÉ | 63,430 | 3.83 | |||
Sylvia Pinel | Radical Party of the Left | PRG | 33,067 | 2.00 | |||
Jean-Luc Bennahmias | Democratic Front
|
FD | 16,869 | 1.02 | |||
Valid votes | 1,634,039 | 98.68 | 2,013,743 | 98.46 | |||
Spoilt and null votes | 21,880 | 1.32 | 31,600 | 1.54 | |||
Total | 1,655,919 | 100% | 2,045,343 | 100% | |||
List of candidates by High Authority.
Source: [1] Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine [2] Archived 2017-04-02 at the Wayback Machine |
Non-candidates
Twenty-four applications were filed with the High Authority for the left-wing primary, but not all were made public; of these, several were disqualified for not securing enough sponsors under the rules of the primary.
- Gérard Filoche, former labor inspector, militant communist[106]
- Sidi Hamada-Hamidou, member of the Radical Party of the Left (PRG)[107]
- Maxime Legrand, opposition councillor in Poissy[108]
- Régis Passerieux, candidate of the PS's Christian faction[109]
- Fabien Verdier, Socialist Party member, advisor to two cabinet ministers and former town councillor[110]
Several other individuals filed applications which were rejected as they were not members of PS, UDE,
- Bastien Faudot, spokesman of the Citizen and Republican Movement (MRC)[111]
- Pierre Larrouturou, former co-president of Nouvelle Donne[112]
- Sébastien Nadot, nominee of the Movement of Progressives[113]
See also
- The Republicans (France) presidential primary, 2016
- 2017 French presidential election
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