Future-oriented technology analysis

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Futures studies
Concepts
Techniques
Technology assessment and forecasting
For other uses of "FTA", see FTA (disambiguation).

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from

technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.[4][5]

Definitions

Year Definition
2004 Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6]
2013 Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7]

Methods

Methods and their families[8]
Method Family
Agent based modeling
 Modeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy process Valuing/decision/economic
Backcasting Descriptive and matrices
Bibliometrics Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics
Brainstorming Creativity
Cross impact analysis Modeling and simulation, Statistics
Delphi Expert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analyses Valuing/decision/economic
Relevance tree Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysis
 Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Roadmapping Descriptive and matrices
Scenarios Scenarios
Social impact assessment Descriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysis Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysis Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamics Modeling and simulation
Technology assessment Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZ Creativity

References

  1. ^ a b Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
  2. S2CID 18904868
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  3. S2CID 9744177
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  4. ISSN 0016-3287
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  5. SSRN 4151745. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help
    )
  6. S2CID 18904868
    .
  7. S2CID 60530892
    .
  8. S2CID 18904868
    .
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