Futures studies
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Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.[1][2][3] In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.[4]
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The
Overview
Futurology is an interdisciplinary field that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, futures research, strategic foresight, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, and futurology. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.[11]
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP[15] categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs.[16] As a rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means.
To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have a strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research. Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how the future can be different. 1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories? 2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure? 3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to the structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society? [17]
History
Origins
Advances in
The
Early 20th century
The British H. G. Wells established the genre of "true science fiction" at the turn of the century. Well's works were supposedly based on sound scientific knowledge. Wells became a forerunner of social and technological forecasting. A series of techno-optimistic newspaper articles and books were published between 1890 and 1914 in the US and Europe.[24] After World War I the Italian Futurism movement led by Filippo Tommaso Marinetti glorified modernity. Soviet futurists, such as Vladimir Mayakovsky, David Burliuk, and Vasily Kamensky struggled against official communist cultural policy throughout the 20th century. In Japan, futurists gained traction after World War I by denouncing the Meiji era and glorifying speed and technological progress.[25]
With the end of
1960s futures research
In 1954
Futures studies was developed as an
The international academic dialogue on futures studies became institutionalized in the form of the
Forecasting further development
The 1972 report The Limits to Growth established
The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals, which were adopted in 2000 as international development goals for the year 2015. Throughout the 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology and innovation.[38] Prior to the 1990s foresight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology or forecasting. Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers of prospectives research, including Bertrand de Jouvenel. Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for the future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems.[39]
In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, including Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies, and Ziauddin Sardar's Rescuing all of our Futures.[40]
Pseudoscience critique
Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as pseudoscience.[5][6] Science exists in the realm of the certain and builds knowledge through attempting to falsify predictions. Futures studies, however, exists in the realm of the uncertain but also builds knowledge through attempting to falsify predictions and exposing uncertainty.[41]
Forecasting and futures techniques
Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as "frameworks for making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about the future".[42] There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach. Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement of foresight as a process together with familiarity with the fundamental attributes of most commonly used methods.[43]
Scenarios are a central technique in Futures Studies and are often confused with other techniques. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition.[44]
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including:
- Framework Foresight
- Prediction markets
- Causal layered analysis (CLA)
- Environmental scanning
- Horizon scanning
- Scenario method
- Education and Learning[45]
- Delphi method, including real-time Delphi
- Future history
- Monitoring
- Backcasting (eco-history)
- Cross-impact analysis
- Futures workshops
- Predictive analytics
- Failure mode and effects analysis
- Futures wheel
- Technology roadmapping
- Social network analysis
- Systems engineering
- Trend analysis
- Morphological analysis
- Technology forecasting
- Theory U
Shaping alternative futures
Futurists use scenarios—alternative possible futures—as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages, and can take place in an evidence-based manner. Scenarios can also study unlikely and improbable developments that would otherwise be ignored. However, for credibility, they should not be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves the study of emerging issues, such as megatrends, trends and weak signals. Megatrends illustrate major, long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant.[46] Trends express an increase or a decrease in a phenomenon, and there are many ways to spot trends. Some argue that a trend persists long-term and long-range; affects many societal groups; grows slowly; and appears to have a profound basis. A fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace
Therefore, to some degree, the field has aimed to move away from prediction. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their
Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards
In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign.[51]
A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify the confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become a trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond.[52] Elina Hultunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent.[53] One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change.[54] Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards:[55]
- Type I Wild Card: low probability, high impact, high credibility
- Type II Wild Card: high probability, high impact, low credibility
- Type III Wild Card: high probability, high impact, disputed credibility
- Type IV Wild Card: high probability, high impact, high credibility
He posits that it is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, high credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen the seven meters estimated rise.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not.[56] One of the most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened.
Near-term predictions
A long-running tradition in various
Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn.[dubious ]
Trend analysis and forecasting
Megatrends
Trends come in different sizes. A megatrend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, megatrends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from the
Potential trends
Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions and activism that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in the future.
Branching trends
Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend. The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch.
Life cycle of a trend
Understanding the technology adoption cycle helps futurists monitor trend development. Trends start as weak signals by small mentions in fringe media outlets, discussion conversations or blog posts, often by innovators. As these ideas, projects, beliefs or technologies gain acceptance, they move into the phase of early adopters. In the beginning of a trend's development, it is difficult to tell if it will become a significant trend that creates changes or merely a trendy fad that fades into forgotten history. Trends will emerge as initially unconnected dots but eventually coalesce into persistent change.[59]
Some trends emerge when enough confirmation occurs in the various media, surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior or technology, it becomes accepted as a bona fide trend. Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream.
Life cycle of technologies
Education
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
- conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
- develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures.
- understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
- conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of
to name a few.While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010;[63] von der Gracht, 2008;[64] Hines, 2012[65]). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.[66]
A Futures Studies program is offered at Tamkang University, Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies.[67]
The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake.[68] It moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general.[69]
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation[70] has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.[71]
A MA Program in Futures Studies has been offered at Free University of Berlin since 2010.[72]
A MSocSc and PhD program in Futures Studies is offered at the University of Turku, Finland.[73]
The University of Stellenbosch Business School in South Africa offers a PGDip in Future Studies as well as a MPhil in Future Studies degree.[74]
Applications of foresight and specific fields
General applicability and use of foresight products
Several corporations and government agencies utilize foresight products to both better understand potential risks and prepare for potential opportunities as an anticipatory approach. Several government agencies publish material for internal stakeholders as well as make that material available to broader public. Examples of this include the US Congressional Budget Office long term budget projections,[75] the National Intelligence Center,[76] and the United Kingdom Government Office for Science.[77] Much of this material is used by policy makers to inform policy decisions and government agencies to develop long-term plan. Several corporations, particularly those with long product development lifecycles, utilize foresight and future studies products and practitioners in the development of their business strategies. The Shell Corporation is one such entity.[78] Foresight professionals and their tools are increasingly being used in both the private and public areas to help leaders deal with an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
Imperial cycles and world order
Imperial cycles represent an "expanding pulsation" of "mathematically describable" macro-historic trend.[79]
Chinese philosopher Kang Youwei and French demographer Georges Vacher de Lapouge stressed in the late 19th century that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the finite surface of the globe. The trend is bound to culminate in a world empire. Kang Youwei predicted that the matter will be decided in a contest between Washington and Berlin; Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest as being between the United States and Russia and wagered the odds were in the United States' favour.[80] Both published their futures studies before H. G. Wells introduced the science of future in his Anticipations (1901).
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart,
Education
As foresight has expanded to include a broader range of social concerns all levels and types of education have been addressed, including formal and informal education. Many countries are beginning to implement Foresight in their Education policy. A few programs are listed below:
- Finland's FinnSight 2015[82] - Implementation began in 2006 and though at the time was not referred to as "Foresight" they tend to display the characteristics of a foresight program.
- Singapore's Ministry of Education Master plan for Information Technology in Education[83] - This third Masterplan continues what was built on in the 1st and 2nd plans to transform learning environments to equip students to compete in a knowledge economy.
- The World Future Society, founded in 1966, is the largest and longest-running community of futurists in the world. WFS established and built futurism from the ground up—through publications, global summits, and advisory roles to world leaders in business and government.[84]
By the early 2000s, educators began to independently institute futures studies (sometimes referred to as futures thinking) lessons in K-12 classroom environments.
There are several organizations devoted to furthering the advancement of Foresight and Future Studies worldwide.
Science fiction
Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish acknowledge science fiction as a catalyst to future studies, conjuring up visions of tomorrow.[87] Science fiction's potential to provide an "imaginative social vision" is its contribution to futures studies and public perspective. Productive sci-fi presents plausible, normative scenarios.[87] Jim Dator attributes the foundational concepts of "images of the future" to Wendell Bell, for clarifying Fred Polak's concept in Images of the Future, as it applies to futures studies.[88][89] Similar to futures studies' scenarios thinking, empirically supported visions of the future are a window into what the future could be. However, unlike in futures studies, most science fiction works present a single alternative, unless the narrative deals with multiple timelines or alternative realities, such as in the works of Philip K. Dick, and a multitude of small and big screen works.[90] Pamela Sargent states, "Science fiction reflects attitudes typical of this century." She gives a brief history of impactful sci-fi publications, like The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov, and Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein.[91] Alternate perspectives validate sci-fi as part of the fuzzy "images of the future".[89]
Brian David Johnson is a futurist and author who uses science fiction to help build the future. He has been a futurist at Intel, and is now the resident futurist at Arizona State University. "His work is called 'future casting'—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing." Brian David Johnson has developed a practical guide to utilizing science fiction as a tool for futures studies. Science Fiction Prototyping combines the past with the present, including interviews with notable science fiction authors to provide the tools needed to "design the future with science fiction."
Science Fiction Prototyping has five parts:[92]
- Pick your science concept and build an imaginative world
- The scientific inflection point
- The consequences, for better, or worse, or both, of the science or technology on the people and your world
- The human inflection point
- Reflection, what did we learn?
"A full Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is 6–12 pages long, with a popular structure being; an introduction, background work, the fictional story (the bulk of the SFP), a short summary and a summary (reflection). Most often science fiction prototypes extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end."[92]
Ian Miles reviews The New Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, identifying ways Science Fiction and Futures Studies "cross-fertilize, as well as the ways in which they differ distinctly." Science Fiction cannot be simply considered fictionalized Futures Studies. It may have aims other than foresight or "prediction, and be no more concerned with shaping the future than any other genre of literature."[93] It is not to be understood as an explicit pillar of futures studies, due to its inconsistency of integrated futures research. Additionally, Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, "The depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science fiction's strong points, especially" preferred, normative envisages.[94] The strengths of the genre as a form of futurist thinking are discussed by Tom Lombardo, who argues that select science fiction "combines a highly detailed and concrete level of realism with theoretical speculation on the future", "addresses all the main dimensions of the future and synthesizes all these dimensions into integrative visions of the future", and "reflects contemporary and futurist thinking", therefore it "can be viewed as the mythology of the future."[95]
It is notable that although there are no hard limits on horizons in future studies and foresight efforts, typical future horizons explored are within the realm of the practical and do not span more than a few decades.[96] Nevertheless, there are hard science fiction works that can be applicable as visioning exercises that span longer periods of time when the topic is of a significant time scale, such as is in the case of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy, which deals with the terraforming of Mars and extends two centuries forward through the early 23rd century.[97] In fact, there is some overlap between science fiction writers and professional futurists such as in the case of David Brin.[98][99] Arguably, the work of science fiction authors has seeded many ideas that have later been developed (be it technological or social in nature)—from early works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells to the later Arthur C. Clarke and William Gibson.[100][101] Beyond literary works, futures studies and futurists have influenced film and TV works. The 2002 movie adaptation of Philip K. Dick's short stort, Minority Report, had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision of the future, including futurist Peter Schwartz.[102] TV shows such as HBO's Westworld and Channel 4/Netflix's Black Mirror follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the scenery and storytelling in a way futurists would in experiential scenarios and works.[103][104]
Science Fiction novels for Futurists:
- William Gibson, Neuromancer, Ace Books, 1984. (Pioneering cyberpunk novel)
- Kim Stanley Robinson, Red Mars, Spectra, 1993. (Story on the founding a colony on Mars)
- Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Bantam, 1994. (Story about a world with drastically altered climate and weather)
- Iain Banks' Culture novels (Space operas in distance future with thoughtful treatments of advanced AI)
Government agencies
Several governments have formalized strategic foresight agencies to encourage long range strategic societal planning, with most notable are the governments of Singapore, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates. Other governments with strategic foresight agencies include Canada's Policy Horizons Canada and the Malaysia's Malaysian Foresight Institute.
The Singapore government's Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is part of the Strategy Group within the Prime Minister's Office. Their mission is to position the Singapore government to navigate emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities.[105] Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991 with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning Office in the Ministry of Defence.[106] In addition to the CSF, the Singapore government has established the Strategic Futures Network, which brings together deputy secretary-level officers and foresight units across the government to discuss emerging trends that may have implications for Singapore.[106]
Since the 1990s, Finland has integrated strategic foresight within the parliament and Prime Minister's Office.[107] The government is required to present a "Report of the Future" each parliamentary term for review by the parliamentary Committee for the Future. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, the Government Foresight Group coordinates the government's foresight efforts.[107] Futures research is supported by the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (established in 1980), the Finland Futures Research Centre (established in 1992), and the Finland Futures Academy (established in 1998) in coordination with foresight units in various government agencies.[107]
In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning. Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the Future as an "integrated strategy to forecast our nation's future, aiming to anticipate challenges and seize opportunities".[108] The Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Future (MOCAF) is mandated with crafting the UAE Strategy for the Future and is responsible for the portfolio of the future of UAE.[109]
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers." The center is composed of non-resident Fellows who are considered leading experts in foresight, planning and future thinking.[110] In September 2019 they hosted a conference on space policy and "deep fake" synthetic media to manipulate online and real-world interactions.[111]
Risk analysis and management
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (December 2016) |
Foresight is a framework or lens which could be used in risk analysis and management in a medium- to long-term time range. A typical formal foresight project would identify key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the scope of analysis.[112] It would also analyze how the drivers and uncertainties could interact to create the most probable scenarios of interest and what risks they might contain. An additional step would be identifying actions to avoid or minimize these risks.
One classic example of such work was how foresight work at the Royal Dutch Shell international oil company led to envision the turbulent oil prices of the 1970s as a possibility and better embed this into company planning. Yet the practice at Shell focuses on stretching the company's thinking rather than in making predictions. Its planning is meant to link and embed scenarios in "organizational processes such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development."[113]
Foresight studies can also consider the possibility of "wild card" events—or events that many consider would be impossible to envision—although often such events can be imagined as remote possibilities as part of foresight work. One of many possible areas of focus for a foresight lens could also be identifying conditions for potential scenarios of high-level risks to society.
These risks may arise from the development and adoption of emerging technologies and/or social change. Special interest lies on hypothetical future events that have the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale—global catastrophic risks.[114] Such events may cripple or destroy modern civilization or, in the case of existential risks, even cause human extinction.[115] Potential global catastrophic risks include but are not limited to climate change, hostile artificial intelligence, nanotechnology weapons, nuclear warfare, total war, and pandemics. The aim of a professional futurist would be to identify conditions that could lead to these events in order to create "pragmatically feasible roads to alternative futures."[116]
Futurists
Futurists are practitioners of the foresight profession, which seeks to provide organizations and individuals with images of the future to help them prepare for contingencies and to maximize opportunities. A foresight project begins with a question that ponders the future of any given subject area, including technology, medicine, government and business. Futurists engage in environmental scanning to search for drivers of change and emerging trends that may have an effect on the focus topic. The scanning process includes reviewing social media platforms, researching already prepared reports, engaging in Delphi studies, reading articles and any other sources of relevant information and preparing and analyzing data extrapolations. Then, through one of a number of highly structured methods[117] futurists organize this information and use it to create multiple future scenarios for the topic, also known as a domain. The value of preparing many different versions of the future rather than a singular prediction is that they provide a client with the ability to prepare long-range plans that will weather and optimize a variety of contexts.[118]
Books
APF's list of most significant futures works
The Association for Professional Futurists recognizes the Most Significant Futures Works for the purpose of identifying and rewarding the work of foresight professionals and others whose work illuminates aspects of the future.[119]
Author | Title |
---|---|
Bertrand de Jouvenel | L’Art de la conjecture (The Art of Conjecture), 2008[120] |
Donella Meadows | The Limits to Growth, 2008[121] |
Peter Schwartz | The Art of the Long View, 2008[122] |
Ray Kurzweil | The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, 2008[123] |
Jerome C. Glenn & Theodore J. Gordon | Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0, 2008[124] |
Jerome C. Glenn & Theodore J. Gordon | The State of the Future, 2008 |
Jared Diamond | Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, 2008[125] |
Richard Slaughter | The Biggest Wake up Call in History, 2012 |
Richard Slaughter | The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, 2008 |
Worldwatch Institute | State of the World, 2008 |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb | The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2012[126] |
Tim Jackson (economist) | Prosperity Without Growth, 2012[127] |
Jørgen Randers | 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, 2013 |
Stroom den Haag | Food for the City, 2013 |
Andy Hines & Peter C. Bishop | Teaching About the Future, 2014[128] |
James A. Dator | Advancing Futures - Futures Studies in Higher Education |
Ziauddin Sardar | Future: All that Matters, 2014 |
Emma Marris | Rambunctious Garden: Saving Nature in a Post-Wild World, 2014 |
Sohail Inayatullah | What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight, 2016[129] |
Dougal Dixon | After Man: A Zoology of the Future |
Other notable foresight books
- "Four Futures: Life After Capitalism" by Peter Frase 2016
- Teaching about the Future by Peter C. Bishop and Andy Hines
- Deep Time Reckoning: How Future Thinking Can Help Earth Now by (Vincent Ialenti) 2020
- "The Fourth Industrial Revolution" by Klaus Schwab 2016
- "Futuring: The Exploration of the Future" by Edward Cornish 2004
- "Foresight Infused Strategy" by Maree Conway
- Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 (Michio Kaku)
- "Learning from the Long View", Peter Schwartz 2011
- The Future of the Mind: The Scientific Quest to Understand, Enhance, and Empower the Mind (Michio Kaku)
- The Age of Intelligent Machines (Ray Kurzweil)
- The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Ray Kurzweil)
- Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (Peter Diamandis)
- Brave New World (Aldous Huxley)
- The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (George Friedman)
- Alvin & Heidi Toffler)
- Thinking About the Future (Andy Hines and Peter C. Bishop)
- Alvin & Heidi Toffler)
- Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change (Patrick Dixon)
- Our Final Hour (Martin Rees)
- The Revenge of Gaia (James Lovelock)
- The Skeptical Environmentalist (Bjørn Lomborg)
- Surviving 1,000 Centuries Can We Do It? (Roger-Maurice Bonnet and Lodewijk Woltjer)
- Paris in the Twentieth Century (Jules Verne)
- The Communist Manifesto (Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels)
- An Anarchist FAQ (Iain McKay)
- Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow (Yuval Noah Harari, 2016)
- Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy
- Future Agenda Tim Jones
- Future Frequencies Derek Woodgate with Wayne Pethrick
- Social Theory and Social Change Trevor Nobel
- Scenario-based Strategy Paul De Ruijter
- Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy Mats Lindgren & Hans Banhold
- Creating Better Futures Jay Ogilvy
- Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organisational and Societal Transformation Sohail Inayatullah
- Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future Patricia Lustig
- History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David Stanley
Periodicals and journals
Organizations
Foresight professional networks
- World Future Society
- World Futures Studies Federation
- World Future Council
- Association of Professional Futurists
- The Millennium Project
Public-sector foresight organizations
- National Intelligence Council
- NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts
- Government Office for Science (United Kingdom)
- MiGHT - Malaysian Industry Government Group for High Technology
Non-governmental foresight organizations
- Future Studies Program (Virtual Website)
- RAND Corporation
- Hudson Institute
- Club of Rome
- Institute for the Future
- International Futures Forum
- Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm
- Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- Tellus Institute
- Global Business Network
- The Arlington Institute (TBD)
- Global Scenario Group
- The Millennium Project
- The Venus Project
- Long Now Foundation
- Machine Intelligence Research Institute
- Strategic Foresight Group
- Future of Humanity Institute
- World Future Council (Germany)
See also
- Accelerating change – Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history
- Automation – Use of various control systems for operating equipment
- Dual inheritance theory, also known as Biocultural evolution – Theory of human behavior
- Cliodynamics – Mathematical modeling of historical processes
- Deficit spending
- Emerging technologies – Technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized
- Futurism (Christianity) – Christian eschatological view
- Foresight (psychology) – Behavior-based backcasting & forecasting factors
- List of emerging technologies – New technologies actively in development
- Human genetic enhancement – Technologies to genetically improve human bodies
- Human overpopulation – Proposed condition wherein human numbers exceed the carrying capacity of the environment
- {{Human timeline}} – Hominin events for the last 10 million years
- Hypothetical technology – Technology that does not exist yet
- Intelligence assessment – Evaluation of sensitive state, military, commercial, or scientific information
- Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work
- {{Life timeline}} – Life events since the formation of the Earth 4.54 billion years ago
- Near future in fiction – Popular chronological setting in cyberpunk and other science fiction genres
- Outline of futures studies – Overview of and topical guide to futures studies
- Planning – Regarding the activities required to achieve a desired goal (forethought)
- Post-scarcity economy– Situation in which most goods are available to all very cheaply or freely
- Post-work society – Form of society
- Sea level rise
- Technology forecasting – Predicting the future of technology
- Technological revolution – Period of rapid technological change
- Technological unemployment – Unemployment caused by technological change
- Future of Earth
- Novopangaea – Possible future supercontinent
- Amasia (continent)– Possible future supercontinent
- Aurica (supercontinent) – Possible future supercontinent
References
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External links
- Future at Curlie