Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

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Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Part of the
Intelligence map: Navy intelligence maps shows the districts of the former FATA in blue and rest of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in green.
Date16 March 2004 – present
(20 years, 1 month and 3 days)
First phase: 16 March 2004 – 22 February 2017
Second phase: 23 February 2017 – present
Location
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (including the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas), Pakistan
Status

Ongoing (Low-level insurgency)[5]

Second phase (Insurgency 2017 – present)
Belligerents

 Pakistan


Insurgents


ISIL-aligned groups

Commanders and leaders

Asif Ali Zardari (2024–present)

Asim Munir
(2022–present)

Former head of states
Pervez Musharraf (until 2008)
Asif Ali Zardari (2008–2013)
Mamnoon Hussain (2013–2018)
Arif Alvi (2018–2024)

Pakistan Former army officers

Omar Khalid Khorasani [25]
Khalid Balti 
Azam Tariq 

Shahidullah Shahid 
Mullah Dadullah 
Wali-ur-Rehman 
Qari Hussain 
Faqir Mohammed (POW)[26]
Maulvi Omar (POW)
Muslim Khan (POW)
Hayatullah (POW)
Shah Dauran 
Sher Muhammad Qusab 
Nek Muhammad Wazir 
Abdul Rashid Ghazi 
Sufi Muhammad (POW)[27]
al-Qaeda
Ayman al-Zawahiri 
Osama bin Laden 
Ilyas Kashmiri 
Mohammad Hasan Khalil al-Hakim 
Atiyah Abd al-Rahman 
Abu Laith al-Libi 
Abu Yahya al-Libi 
Abu-Zaid al Kuwaiti 
Saeed al-Masri 
Fahid Mohammed Ally Msalam 
Sheikh Ahmed Salim Swedan 
Sheikh Fateh [28]
Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah [29]
Asim Umar 
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (POW)
Abu Faraj al-Libbi (POW)
Ramzi bin al-Shibh (POW)
Abu Zubaydah (POW)



)
Strength

Pakistan
200,000 Pakistani troops

F-16 jets[36]
~10,000 Frontier Corps


United States

~25,000

TTP militia[38]
~2,000 Lashkar-e-Islam militia[39]
~1,000 TNSM militia[40]
300–3,000 al-Qaeda militants[41]


 ISIL

Casualties and losses

Pakistan:
4,631 soldiers and LEAs killed (per SATP)[7][8]
8,214 killed soldiers and LEAs and 14,583 wounded (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43]


United States:
15 soldiers killed (2010)[44]
29,398 militants killed (per SATP)[7][8]
31,000 killed (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43]

9,394 civilians and 1,946 unidentified killed (per SATP)[7][8]
22,100 civilians killed (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43]
46,872 killed overall (per SATP)[7][8]
61,549 killed overall (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43]
41,819 killed overall all over Pakistan (Uppsala Conflict Data Program; 1989–2019)[45]


Over 3.44 million civilians displaced (2009)[46]

Over 6 million civilians displaced (2003–2019)[47]

The insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, also known as the War in North-West Pakistan or Pakistan's war on terror, is an ongoing armed conflict involving

low-level insurgency as of 2017.[5]

The armed conflict began in 2004 when tensions rooted in the

Pakistan-Afghanistan border to seek refuge in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Pakistan. Resultantly, militants established control over seven tribal agencies of FATA
.

Pakistan Army under the Pervez Musharraf administration launched operations with Battle of Wanna to hunt down al-Qaeda fighters. However, Pakistan security forces did not target Afghan Taliban as Taliban were not responsible for the twin-tower attacks. Subsequently, Pakistan Army failed to achieve its desired results. Pakistan Army's failure resulted in the Waziristan Accord which is considered to be failure on the part of army and Pervez Musharraf as the accord ceded FATA territories to the militants.

The situation in FATA further complicated with the emergence of

TTP and other militant umbrella organisations, such as Lashkar-e-Islam
.

The

North-Western Frontier Province (modern day Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa). The districts such as Buner, Dir, Shangla and Swat fell out of writ of Government of Pakistan by 2007 as militants flashed into mainland of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa further expanding their influence beyond peripheries of FATA
.

The TTP emerged as one of the most lethal group aiming to overthrow Government of Pakistan in Islamabad and replace it with a Taliban-style government as it denounced Pakistan alliance with US against the principals of Islam. TTP declared its jihad was legitimate as Pakistan was siding with US to attack a Muslim nation Afghanistan.

The insurgency turned into a critical issue for Pakistan when the Pakistan Army held a siege on the mosque of Lal-Masjid Islamabad to free foreigners taken hostage by the militants. Naming this operation as an attack on the "House of Allah", TTP declared Pakistan Army as an agent of Western powers and started a bloody campaigns of suicide bombings throughout the country. Due to the Lal-Masjid Operation number of suicide attacks jumped from 10 in 2006 to 61 in 2007.[56] Pakistan Armed Forces also bore the burnt of number of terrorist attacks such as PNS Mehran attack, Kamra Airbase attack, and GHQ Rawalpindi attack.

The deteriorated law and order situation saw assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007 which was also claimed by the TTP. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto led to the demise of President Pervez Musharraf regime.

Pakistan with the exit of

South Waziristan
, which were two strongholds of TTP.

The last operation Zarb-e-Azb was conducted by the Kayani's successor General Raheel Sharif to purge last remaining agency of North Waziristan from the clutches of TTP. Thus, Pakistan Armed Forces successfully recaptured seven tribal agencies of FATA and four districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by conducting a bloody armed campaign from 2007 to 2016.

With help of military campaigns Pakistan Army was able to push back TTP into Afghanistan from where it continues to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistan. By 2014, the casualty rates from

TTP terrorists in the province in December 2014. The reduction in hostilities eventually changed the conflict from a war to a relatively low-level conflict.[58]

The TTP after success of

FATA
. The operation was aimed at consolidating efforts of previous military campaigns.

As a result of Radd-ul-Fasaad, TTP suffered huge losses and divided into various splinter groups that weakened its operational capabilities. According to Delhi-based South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) 2019 was post peaceful year for Pakistan since the time of start of insurgency in 2004. According to SATP, The suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2019 was decreased to 8 from record high of 85 in 2009.[56]

Pakistan Army under the command of General Bajwa started to fence 2600 kilometer long Pakistan-Afghanistan border in 2017 and construct around 1000 military forts in order to capitalize on gains that it has made against the militancy in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Around 67 wings of Frontier Corps were raised to patrol the bordering areas.[59] Moreover, FATA under 25th Amendment in 2018 was merged with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in order to bring it under the ambit of Constitution of Pakistan so that it could be governed more effectively. The 25th Amendment replaced colonial-era constitutional framework of Frontier Crime Regulation.

Since the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan is confronted with renewed threat of terrorism as TTP has been injected with fresh dose of strength due to the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan. The fresh recruits, easy access to US made weapons, and a sanctuary under the shadow of Afghan Taliban have once again bolstered the TTP to again target Pakistan. Resultantly Pakistan suffered 13 suicide attacks by the end 2022.[56]

In 2022 After negotiations, the TTP and the government announced a ceasefire in June 2022. However, in November 2022, the TTP renounced the ceasefire and called for nationwide attacks against Pakistan.[60]

On 7 April 2023, Pakistan's

The war has depleted the country's manpower resources, and the outcomes outlined a deep effect on its national economy, since Pakistan had joined the American-led War on Terror.

Names for the war

Various names have been applied to the conflict by the authors and historians. Names used in English include: Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, War in North-West Pakistan, Waziristan War, or the Pakistan's war on terror. On the other hand, political scientist, Farrukh Saleem, termed the war as the "Fourth Generation War" or the "4G War".[66]

Background

In the aftermath of

South Waziristan.[68] A monitoring reconnaissance base was established by the Special Service Group [Navy] in 2003.[68] Criticism of Musharraf and the United States grew in Peshawar by a massive communist party in 2003, demanding an end to the operations.[69]

In 2003, the troubles mounted as the

South Waziristan and justified the army deployments in the region despite the concerns.[71] In December 2003, at least two assassination attempts against President Pervez Musharraf were traced to South Waziristan. The government responded by intensifying military pressure on the area. However, the fighting was costly: government forces sustained heavy casualties throughout 2004 and into early 2005, when the government switched to a tactic of negotiation instead of direct conflict.[72]

Fighting breaks out