2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus

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Candidate Barack Obama John Edwards Hillary Clinton Home state Illinois North Carolina New York Delegate count 16 14 15 SDEs 940 744 737 Percentage (of SDEs) 37.6% 29.7% 29.4%

Caucus results by county Clinton:      30–40%      40–50% Obama:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60% Edwards:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60% Tie:

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v t e

The 2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus occurred on January 3, and was the

As of the 2020 election, this is the last time that a non-incumbent candidate, Republican or Democrat, who won Iowa would go on to become president.

History of the caucus

The Iowa Caucuses have historically been the first held in the United States. The caucus marked the traditional and formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election, and the process in which members of the Democratic Party gathered to make policy decisions.^[2]

Iowa state law mandates that its caucus must be held at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nominating process. Therefore, the Iowa Caucuses have always been traditionally the leading state in the nominating process. Not only did controversy brew between the candidates, but the caucuses themselves drew a large amount of media attention. The decisions of the Iowans often affect the rest of the campaign season.^[3] Barack Obama's victory in Iowa helped establish him as one of the Democratic frontrunners of 2008 and was a first step toward his eventual nomination.^[4]

Process

The caucuses followed the regular procedures of the

The delegate allocation to the Democratic National Convention was as follows: 29 district delegates proportionally represented a candidate's support at each congressional district.[7]^[8] The First Congressional District receives six pledged delegates, the Second Congressional District receives seven, the Third Congressional District receives six, the Fourth Congressional District receives six, and the Fifth Congressional District receives four. All of these pledged delegates represent each congressional district independently; they are not affected by the results of the state convention.^[8]

At the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention, on the other hand, 16 pledged delegates proportionally represented the candidates' support. Ten of these delegates were designated as at-large, meaning that they represent the entire state as a whole.^[7] The other six were referred to as Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO).^[8] These may include members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, the Governor, and former party leaders. Not all of the PLEOs were pledged,^[7] but if they were, they would represent the state as a whole along with the at-large delegates. In total, the Democratic presidential candidates were allocated a total of 45 pledged delegates, depending on their support in each district and in the state.^[8]

Twelve delegates that did not represent caucus results were sent to the Democratic National Convention; they are referred to as unpledged. Eleven of them are PLEOs, which include six members of the DNC, one

While this process lasts for a period of approximately five months, the results of the state caucus are usually predictable by the results of the precincts' caucuses combined. Therefore, the results of the precinct caucuses provide a good measurement of Iowa's delegation to the Democratic National Convention.[2]

Pre-caucus polls

Before the caucuses, the

• Barack Obama - 32%
• Hillary Clinton - 25%
• John Edwards - 24%
• Bill Richardson - 6%
• Joe Biden - 4%
• Christopher Dodd
  - 2%
• Dennis Kucinich - 1%
• Mike Gravel - 0%
• Not sure/Uncommitted - 6%

The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points.^[5]

Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls rose from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. This was in part a result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of

Thirty percent of the sample population from the Des Moines Register's poll said that a candidate's ability to bring about change in the United States was the most important to them; 27% said that a candidate who would be most successful in unifying the country would have taken priority in their votes. Most caucusgoers also said that Obama was strong in both of these areas. Having the experience and competence to lead was considered the most important aspect of a candidate by 18 percent of the sample population; Hillary Clinton was rated best on this trait. Only 6 percent of the sample population said that being best able to win the general election was the top priority; Clinton, again, was rated best on this trait.^[5]

Results

Caucus results

Caucus date: January 3, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 0 (of 45)

The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts (it releases only the number of delegates to the state convention).^[10] Since Hillary Rodham Clinton had the highest delegate strength in Iowa's 5th congressional district (a district allocated four national convention delegates) and received the same amount of national delegates elsewhere, she was projected to receive one more national delegate than Edwards despite receiving fewer projected delegates to the state convention.^[10]

The Democratic National Committee gives the 50 states 794 superdelegates. According to a January 4, 2008 poll conducted by the Associated Press, most of the superdelegates were undecided, but 160 had endorsed Clinton, compared to 59 for Obama and 32 for Edwards. Along with the delegates that the candidates secured from Iowa, the numbers were as follows: 175 for Clinton, 75 for Obama, and 46 for Edwards. (To win the Democratic nomination for president, 2,025 delegates are needed.)^[11] Thus, Clinton initially retained an overall delegate lead following the Iowa results.

The 2008 Iowa Caucuses saw a record turnout for both parties; the Democrats drew more than 239,000 voters, almost double the Republican turnout.[15] Entrance polling indicated that a significant portion of the turnout came from first-time caucus attendees, as well as attendees under the age of 30; two groups of voters that primarily lent their support to Barack Obama. Women, previously expected to largely back Hillary Clinton, split their vote between Clinton and Obama, the latter of whom actually received slightly more support.^[10] In the aftermath of the results from the Iowa Caucuses, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.^[10]

As a result of the Iowa Caucus, Barack Obama received a significant surge of support in the next competition, the

On June 3, the Obama Campaign announced that all 4 national delegates previously pledged to former Senator John Edwards, elected by four Iowan congressional districts (CD1+CD2+CD3+CD5), had committed instead to vote for Senator Obama at the 2008 Democratic National Convention.^[18]

State convention results

State convention date: June 28, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 45 (of 45)

In addition to the above 45 pledged national delegates, the state convention will also send the following 12 uncommitted

• 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• Iowa caucuses
• 2008 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

References