Subsidies in Iran
The economy of Iran includes a lot of subsidies.[2] Food items, such as flour and cooking oil, are subsidized, along with fuels such as gasoline.[3] However cutting subsidies can cause civil unrest.[4]
The Iranian targeted subsidy plan (
According to the government, approximately $100 billion per year is spent on
The subsidy system has been inherited from the Iran–Iraq War era but was never abolished. Iran is one of the largest gasoline consumers in the world, ranking second behind the United States in consumption per car.[12] The government subsidy reform has been years in the making, for reasons which are unclear.[1][13][14][15] Iran's Supreme Leader has backed the government’s subsidy reform plan.[16]
Objectives
Iran spends the largest share of GDP on fossil fuel subsidies in the world.[1][17] Many Iranian experts agree that these unsustainable subsidies encourage waste among goods, including in the production sector, ranging from gasoline to bread that must be stopped and the only way to do that is to redirect subsidies.[citation needed]
The stated goal of the subsidy reform is "to rejuvenate Iran's economy, increase productivity, give it a new footing and bring it out of the slump it has been in for so long".[
Implementation of the plan will reduce waste and
Implementation
For implementation of the bill, an entity has been established as a duly authorized governmental company under the name "Targeting Subsidies Organization".[26]
The amount saved by the government, will be distributed as follows: 50% towards the poorest strata of Iranian society; 20% at the government's disposal (to compensate for increased costs or as safety net); and the remaining 30% will be directed towards improving the efficiency of the utility, fuel and energy production infrastructure, public transportation development, industry and farming.[citation needed]
The plan will commence with energy, fuel and utilities in the first year and consumable goods will start in the second year. The start of the cuts will coincide with the beginning of the second half of the
Budgeting
In March 2010, the
as at 2008/09 | 2014/15 Baseline |
2014/15 Energy price reform | |
---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growth | −3.7% | 3.5% | ~8% (1/3 from productivity improvement) |
Real GDP growth (non-oil) | 2.9% | 3.8% | ~8% |
Crude oil exports | 2.4 Mb/d[34] | 1.8 Mb/d | ~2.5 Mb/d |
Current account | 7.2% | 0.2% | ~2.5% |
CPI inflation | 25.4% | 10% | ~7% (peaking above 30% in 2011) |
Gross official reserves | $80 billion | $98 billion | ~$170 billion |
Item | 2011–12 | 2010–11 | % Change |
---|---|---|---|
General Budget, of which | 170 | 129 | 31.8% |
Development Expenditure | 35 | 31.7 | 10.4% |
General Expenditures & Other Items | 135 | 97.3 | 38.7% |
Budget for State-Owned Banks and Enterprises | 355 | 252.5 | 40.6% |
Total* | 508 | 368.4 | 37.9% |
Resources from Subsidies Phase Out | 54 | 20 | 171.7% |
* Totals may not add up due to rounding and deduction of double-counted items Note: all numbers are in billion dollars.
Income data
According to the IMF, until recently[when?] a four-member Iranian household received an average of $4,000 a year in subsidies for oil and natural gas, compared with a typical annual income of about $3,600 a year.[36]
In 2010, Iran's Department of Statistics announced that 10 million Iranians live under the
Data collection
The administration has said earlier that it will be able to allocate different payment amounts to different people.
In September 2010, Iran's Statistics Bureau announced that implementation was delayed by one month because they were still collecting information regarding the financial situation of households and opening bank accounts for them.[39]
Plan revision
Later in 2010, the government announced that it had revised its plan because of lack of reliable data on personal incomes. To ease the economic loss from lost subsidies, the government indicated it would distribute $40 per person/month (i.e. 455,000 rials/month) to 90% of the general population, starting on December 18, 2010.[40]
Item | Original/Budgeted plan (2010) | Revised plan (2011) |
---|---|---|
% population receiving cash handouts | 50% | >90%[29][41][42] |
Amount re-directed from subsidies | $20 billion/year | <$54 billion/year[32][43] |
Cash handout per capita/month | $25[44] | $40[45] |
Cost in 2011 budget for this handout | $10 billion | >$30–35 billion (>$2.5 billion/month)[46] |
Amount allocated for production & government from subsidies re-direct |
$10 billion ($6 billion for production and $4 billion for government to cover increased costs) |
>$10 billion for production |
Price adjustments
The government took control of
Other determinants
According to the plan, the type of consumption (i.e. whether agricultural, industrial and civil) will also be considered when setting energy prices.[50] The subsidy plan will be implemented in proportion with geographical regions because warm regions consume more electricity during summer while cold regions consume more gas during winter. Finally, the time of consumption (i.e. during peak and off-peak hours) and the consumption demand (i.e. whether it is low or high) will be taken into consideration.[51]
Commodity (or service) |
Old Price (as of 12/17/2010) |
New Price/Increase (as of 12/18/2010) |
Initial decrease in consumption (as of 01/01/2011)[51][52] |
Target price (by 2015) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gasoline | 10 cents/liter; 40 cents/liter (beyond 60 liters/month)[1] | 40 cents/liter; 70 cents/liter (beyond the quota, except for public service cars which receive a higher quota)[citation needed] | 5–20% (from 64 million to 53 million liters/day)[51][52][53][54] | Prices for oil derivatives not less than 90% of the |
Diesel | $0.06/gallon[51] | $0.6/gallon ($1.4/gallon on the open market)[51] | 20% (from 54 to 41 million liters/day)[51] | — |
Natural gas | 1-1.3 cents/m3 for households and 0.5 cents/m3 for power plants[1] | >500% price increase;[56] on average 7 cents/m3 for households and industry and 8 cents/m3 for power plants[1] | 6% (for cooking gas)[56] | 75% of the average export price for the general population; 65% of the average export price for petrochemical companies for 10 years.[48]
|
CNG |
4 cents/m3[1] | 30 cents/m3[1] | — | — |
Electricity | 1.6 cents/KWh[57] | <300%[56] | 11%[1] | at production cost (8 cents/KWh as of 2010; 10 cents in 2015)[48][57][58] |
Water | 9 cents/m3[1] | 25–37 cents/m3;[59] 300-400% increase[56] (2,500 rials/m3 for household usage; 4,128 rials/m3 for industrial usage)[56] | 5%[52] | at production cost (~10,000 rials/m3 for household usage)[48][60] |
Bread (loaf of brick oven bread) | 5–20 cents;[51] Wheat: 1 cent/kg[1] | 200%[5] (40 cents); Wheat: 28–30 cents/kg.[59] Price of bread increased again to 45 cents in April 2011.[61] | — | — |
Taxi & inter-city buses | — | 10–18% (city buses, domestic flights and the metro, are not allowed to raise prices at all)[62] | — | — |
Air+rail transport | — | >30% (not yet implemented)[63][64] | — | — |
Starting in April 2012, Iran's consumers have been hit with a wave of rising prices that has now touched laundry detergent and food items such as cooking oil, rice, eggs and dairy products. Since April 2012, the price of food and other consumer products have risen between 10 and 20% in some cases.[65]
The latest official data comparing prices of foodstuffs in the second week of April 2012 to the corresponding period in 2011 showed dairy products rose about 42 per cent, red meat 47.5 per cent, rice about 29 per cent, beans 45.7 per cent, vegetables 92 per cent, sugar 33 per cent and vegetable oil 30 per cent.[66] The price of chicken nearly tripled since 2011.[67][68]
Consumption patterns
As of October 2011, consumption of
Item | 2010 | 2011 | Reduction in consumption (2010–11) | Savings (as of January 2012) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Petrol | 62.8mn liters/day | 59.3mn liters/day | 3.5mn liters/day | $2.1 billion (for gas oil)[69] [clarification needed] |
Liquid gas (CNG) | 12.3mn liters/day | 11mn liters/day | 1.3mn liters/day | $200 million[69] |
Gasoline | 81mn liters/day | 73mn liters/day | 8mn liters/day | $880 million, continued fuel smuggling with neighboring states.
|
Kerosene | — | — | 2.9mn liters/day | $770 million[69] |
Furnace oil | 18.1mn liters/day | 11.5mn liters/day | 6.4mn liters/day | $1.350 billion[69] |
Electricity | — | — | — | ~$400 million[71] ($10 billion when including capital investment and fuel for power plants) |
Water | — | — | — | $8.1 billion[71] |
Wheat/flour | — | — | -22.4% | — |
Total: | — | — | — | $15 billion[71] |
Economic and structural adjustments
The reforms target one of the major sources of inefficiency and
On the other side, the
Second phase
During the second phase, starting in June 2012, half of the funds from energy and food subsidies will be re-allocated to the people and the remaining 50% will go to the industrial sector. If approved by the Parliament, the government will pay an extra cash handout of 280,000 rials/month to 80% of the general population (i.e. people earning less than $2000/month, which is a comfortable income level in Iran).[citation needed] In July 2012, it was announced that implementation of the second phase was suspended awaiting further adjustments by the government and because of raising inflation (around 22% as of April 2012). Finally, in fall 2013, the parliament approved a plan to drop 22 million Iranians—the top 30 percent of earners—from the subsidy system instead.[76] Yet, it was reported in 2014 that out of Iran's population of 77 million, 73.6 million registered to receive the cash hand-outs.[77]
Effects and criticism
2010
According to earlier critics, even if half of $20 billion is passed as part of the compensation to the poorer 50% of the
Critics say that if the government goes for the top of this range
2011
According to some western reports, cash payments have been denied to some opponents of the regime during the distribution phase.[79]
Ahmad Tavakkoli, a parliamentarian, accused the government of “violating the law” and “mis-implementing” the plan because it earned 290,000bn rials ($23.6bn) from the cut in subsidies in the first 14 months of its implementation but paid people $36.7bn of compensation in return (he says).[66]
It has also been reported that while the subsidy reform plan needs further adaptation and fine-tuning, citizens must separate the questions of public policy from the issues of government legitimacy.[80] The IMF has hailed Iran's economic reform and asked Iran's expertise to be transferred to other countries.[citation needed] The Economist Intelligence Unit has also praised Iran's subsidies reform plan for its positive effect on the economy in 2011.[81]
2012
In 2012, Iran's head of the
According to the World Bank:[citation needed]
A revision to the system of subsidies and cash transfers to better balance reimbursements and fiscal accounts has been looked upon favorably by outside analysts. Iran has made important efforts to reform its income support system away from subsidies and toward better targeted social safety nets, and this has brought down the pace of prices.
In October 2012, 179 of 240 members of parliament voted in favor of pausing the subsidy reform, because of high inflation (exacerbated by the
2014
In 2014, Iran started the second phase of its targeted subsidy plan under President
2015
Iran's government reported that the second phase of the subsidy reform plan will continue as originally planned.
2016
According to the sixth five-year development plan (2016-2021), the subsidy reform plan is to be extended until 2021, even though this delay in the implementation runs contrary to the Parliament's ratification of the law on subsidies reform.[87]
In 2016, the
More recently the government has announced that it will scrap the subsidy reform plan because of "inflationary pressures" and replace it with a new plan named "energy management". The new plan aims to set new higher fuel prices (as in the original plan - consequently economize on energy consumption and increase production efficiency).[90]
Even though cash subsidies were intended for 10% of the general population originally, they were given to 90% of the population, mostly because of lack of political will and lack of accurate data on people's income. Those cash handouts "discouraged people to work in rural areas" the government has also argued,[90] although this claim is not supported by an Economic Research Forum study that found no evidence of labor supply reductions, but did find increases in hours worked among service sector workers, possibly due to business expansions made possible by the increased cash.[91]
2019
Contrary to the subsidy reform plan's objectives, and because of the abandoning of this reform plan by the Rouhani government, the volume of Iranian subsidies given to its citizens on fossil fuel increased 42.2% year-on-year, and equals 15.3% of Iran's GDP and 16% of total global
In 2018, with $69 billion of subsidies allocated for various types of energy consumption including oil ($26.6 billion), natural gas ($16.6 billion), and electricity ($26 billion), Iran holds the first place among the world's top countries in terms of the amount of subsidies allocated to energy consumption, thus furthering fuel smuggling with neighboring countries, waste, over-consumption, and
2021
About nine million liters of petroleum products was smuggled out of the country every day by "mafia".[94][95] In order to improve the economy, economists have suggested that it is best for the new Iranian government to return to the full and immediate implementation of the subsidy reform plan, which was left unfinished by the previous government.[96]
2022-23
See also
- Subsidies in Iran
- Subsidies in India
- Economy of Iran
- Economic history of Iran
- Social Security Organization (Iran)
- Transition economy
- International rankings of Iran
- Iran and WTO
- Tehran Stock Exchange
- Chinese economic reform
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External links
- Iran's bold economic reform - Economic jihad The Economist (June 2011)
- Iran Investment Monthly (Special Report: Subsidies Reform Plan) Archived 2011-08-09 at the Wayback Machine - Turquoise Partners
- Structural Patronage in Iran: Implications of Subsidies Reform for Iran and U.S. Policy - American Enterprise Institute
- Iran Plans To End Energy Subsidies - Energy Tribune
- Iran to Cut Oil Subsidies in Energy Reform - International Monetary Fund Survey Magazine
- Islamic Republic of Iran: IMF Staff Report – Statistics and macro-economic projections in relation to Iran's economic reform by the International Monetary Fund (March 2010)
- (IMF Staff Report - March 2014)
- Iran's Subsidies Conundrum Archived 2010-10-03 at the Wayback Machine - PBS