Jeff Sagarin

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Jeff Sagarin (born 1948)

NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship tournament since 1984,[3] and were part of the college football Bowl Championship Series throughout its history from 1998 to 2014.[4]

Background

Sagarin attended

Westchester County in New Rochelle, New York. In 1977 he moved to Bloomington, Indiana. In 1986 he created the computer game Hoops with Wayne L. Winston.[6]

Method

Sagarin, like the developers of many other sports rating systems, does not divulge the exact methods behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7–6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21–7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35–0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70–0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score.

At the beginning of a season, when only a few games have been played, a Bayesian network weighted by starting rankings is used as long as there are whole groups of teams that have not played one another, but once the graph is well-connected, the weights are no longer needed. Sagarin claims that from that point, the rankings are unbiased.[7]

Justification

Sagarin's ratings are particularly relevant in the world of American college football and basketball, where, with hundreds of teams in NCAA Division I competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents.

In addition, sports rating systems are generally of great interest to

gamblers
. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Ratings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams.

Winval

Along with his former

MIT classmate Wayne L. Winston, a professor of decision sciences at Indiana University, as of 2004, Sagarin advised the Dallas Mavericks about which lineups to use during games and which free agents to sign using a system called Winval.[8][9] Winval is modeled after hockey's plus–minus
system.

References

  1. ^ Glockner, Andy (26 August 2013). "Verbatim: Stats guru Jeff Sagarin (Part 1)". Sports Illustrated. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
  2. ^ USA Today Jeff Sagarin's page
  3. doi:10.2202/1559-0410.1099
    (Sec. 2.2)
  4. ^ Official BCS Website: Standings
  5. ^ Jonietz, Erika (November 1, 2002). "Computing Athletics". MIT Technology Review. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
  6. ^ Burns, Ed (30 March 1987). "WARNING: 'HOOPS' MAY BE ADDICTIVE". Sports Illustrated. Retrieved 14 November 2020.
  7. ^ "Jeff Sagarin Sports Ratings - USA TODAY Sports". USA Today.
  8. ^ Leonhardt, David (2003, April 27). Mavericks' New Math May Be an Added Edge. NY Times
  9. ^ (2004, April 13). Numbers game. The Washington Times

External links

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