List of regions by past GDP (PPP)
These are lists of regions and countries by their estimated
Methodology
In the absence of sufficient data for nearly all economies until well into the 19th century, past GDP cannot be calculated, but at best only roughly estimated. In a first step, economic historians try to reconstruct the
A key notion in the whole process is that of
The formula thus is: GDP (PPP) = GDP per capita (PPP) x population size
It should be stressed that, historically speaking, population size is the far more important multiplier in the equation. This is because, in contrast to
According to the 20th-century macroeconomist Paul Bairoch, a pioneer in historical economic analysis,
it is obvious that by itself the volume of total
GNPhas no important significance, and that the volume of GNP is not by itself the expression of the economic strength of a nation.
Rather, Bairoch advocates a formula combining GNP per capita and total GNP to give a better measure of the economic performance of national economies.[2]
World
1750–1990 (Bairoch)
In his 1995 book Economics and World History, economic historian
Year | 1960 dollars | 1990 dollars | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Third World[A] | First World[B] | Third World[A] | First World[B] | |
1750 | 112 | 35 | 495 | 155 |
1800 | 137 | 47 | 605 | 208 |
1830 | 150 | 67 | 662 | 296 |
1860 | 159 | 118 | 702 | 521 |
1900 | 184 | 297 | 813 | 1,312 |
1913 | 217 | 430 | 958 | 1,899 |
1928 | 252 | 568 | 1,113 | 2,508 |
1938 | 293 | 678 | 1,294 | 2,994 |
1950 | 338 | 889 | 1,493 | 3,926 |
1970 | 810 | 2,450 | 3,577 | 10,820 |
1980 | 1,280 | 3,400 | 5,653 | 15,015 |
1990 | 1,730 | 4,350 | 7,640 | 19,210 |
A ^ Third World refers to Asia (excluding Japan), Africa, and Latin America.
B ^ First World refers to Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.
1–2008 (Maddison)
The following estimates are taken exclusively from the 2007 monograph Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD by the British economist Angus Maddison.[4]
When graphed, one can see China is reasserting its position as the world's largest economy, which it had lost around 1890. [5] There was little difference in GDP per capita based on level of development in earlier eras, so in 1500, China was the largest economy in the world, followed closely by India.[5]
Country / Region | 1 | 1000 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1820 | 1870 | 1913 | 1950 | 1973 | 1989 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | 213 | 298 | 1,414 | 2,093 | 2,483 | 4,104 | 8,419 | 23,451 | 25,702 | 85,227 | 124,791 | 198,004 |
Belgium | 135 | 170 | 1,225 | 1,561 | 2,288 | 4,529 | 13,716 | 32,347 | 47,190 | 118,516 | 166,396 | 246,103 |
Denmark | 72 | 144 | 443 | 569 | 727 | 1,471 | 3,782 | 11,670 | 29,654 | 70,032 | 93,728 | 135,037 |
Finland | 8 | 16 | 136 | 215 | 255 | 913 | 1,999 | 6,389 | 17,051 | 51,724 | 84,092 | 127,676 |
France | 2,366 | 2,763 | 10,912 | 15,559 | 19,539 | 35,468 | 72,100 | 144,489 | 220,492 | 683,965 | 1,000,286 | 1,423,562 |
Germany | 1,225 | 1,435 | 8,256 | 12,656 | 13,650 | 26,819 | 72,149 | 237,332 | 265,354 | 944,755 | 1,302,212 | 1,713,405 |
Italy | 6,475 | 2,250 | 11,550 | 14,410 | 14,630 | 22,535 | 41,814 | 95,487 | 164,957 | 582,713 | 906,053 | 1,157,636 |
Netherlands | 85 | 128 | 723 | 2,072 | 4,047 | 4,288 | 9,952 | 24,955 | 60,642 | 175,791 | 247,906 | 411,055 |
Norway | 40 | 80 | 183 | 266 | 361 | 777 | 2,360 | 5,988 | 17,728 | 44,852 | 76,733 | 132,365 |
Sweden | 80 | 160 | 382 | 626 | 1,231 | 3,098 | 6,927 | 17,403 | 47,269 | 109,794 | 149,415 | 193,352 |
Switzerland | 128 | 123 | 411 | 750 | 1,068 | 2,165 | 5,581 | 16,483 | 42,545 | 117,251 | 141,599 | 190,328 |
UK | 320 | 800 | 2,815 | 6,007 | 10,709 | 36,232 | 100,180 | 224,618 | 347,850 | 675,941 | 940,908 | 1,446,959 |
12 country total | 11,146 | 8,366 | 38,450 | 56,784 | 70,988 | 142,399 | 338,979 | 840,612 | 1,286,434 | 3,660,561 | 5,235,115 | 7,402,911 |
Portugal | 180 | 255 | 606 | 814 | 1,638 | 3,043 | 4,219 | 7,467 | 17,615 | 63,397 | 102,922 | 154,132 |
Spain | 1,867 | 1,800 | 4,495 | 7,029 | 7,481 | 12,299 | 19,556 | 41,653 | 61,429 | 266,896 | 454,166 | 797,927 |
Other | 1,240 | 504 | 632 | 975 | 1,106 | 2,110 | 4,712 | 12,478 | 30,600 | 105,910 | 169,648 | 343,059 |
Total Western Europe | 14,433 | 10,925 | 44,183 | 65,602 | 81,213 | 159,851 | 367,466 | 902,210 | 1,396,078 | 4,096,764 | 5,961,851 | 8,698,029 |
Eastern Europe | 1,956 | 2,600 | 6,696 | 9,289 | 11,393 | 24,906 | 50,163 | 134,793 | 185,023 | 550,756 | 718,039 | 1,030,628 |
Former USSR
|
1,560 | 2,840 | 8,458 | 11,426 | 16,196 | 37,678 | 83,646 | 232,351 | 510,243 | 1,513,070 | 2,037,253 | 2,242,206 |
United States | 272 | 520 | 800 | 600 | 527 | 12,548 | 98,374 | 517,383 | 1,455,916 | 3,536,622 | 5,703,521 | 9,485,136 |
Other Western offshoots | 176 | 228 | 320 | 320 | 306 | 951 | 13,119 | 65,558 | 179,574 | 521,667 | 856,847 | 1,448,542 |
Total Western offshoots | 448 | 748 | 1,120 | 920 | 833 | 13,499 | 111,493 | 582,941 | 1,635,490 | 4,058,289 | 6,560,368 | 10,933,678 |
Mexico | 880 | 1,800 | 3,188 | 1,134 | 2,558 | 5,000 | 6,214 | 25,921 | 67,368 | 279,302 | 491,767 | 877,312 |
Other Latin America | 1,360 | 2,760 | 4,100 | 2,629 | 3,788 | 9,921 | 21,097 | 94,875 | 347,960 | 1,110,158 | 1,735,919 | 3,168,621 |
Total Latin America | 2,240 | 4,560 | 7,288 | 3,763 | 6,346 | 14,921 | 27,311 | 120,796 | 415,328 | 1,389,460 | 2,227,686 | 4,045,933 |
Japan | 1,200 | 3,188 | 7,700 | 9,620 | 15,390 | 20,739 | 25,393 | 71,653 | 160,966 | 1,242,932 | 2,208,858 | 2,904,141 |
China | 26,820 | 26,550 | 61,800 | 96,000 | 82,800 | 228,600 | 189,740 | 241,431 | 244,985 | 739,414 | 2,051,813 | 8,908,894 |
India[A] | 33,750 | 33,750 | 60,500 | 74,250 | 90,750 | 111,417 | 134,882 | 204,242 | 222,222 | 494,832 | 1,043,912 | 3,415,183 |
Other east Asia | 4,845 | 8,968 | 20,822 | 24,582 | 28,440 | 36,451 | 53,155 | 122,874 | 256,938 | 829,023 | 2,021,528 | 5,154,979 |
West Asia | 10,120 | 12,415 | 10,495 | 12,637 | 12,291 | 15,270 | 22,468 | 40,588 | 106,283 | 548,120 | 855,130 | 1,905,346 |
Total Asia (excl. Japan) | 75,535 | 81,683 | 153,617 | 207,469 | 214,281 | 391,738 | 400,245 | 609,135 | 830,428 | 2,621,624 | 5,972,383 | 19,384,402 |
Africa | 8,030 | 13,835 | 19,383 | 23,473 | 25,776 | 31,266 | 45,234 | 79,486 | 203,131 | 549,993 | 889,922 | 1,734,918 |
World | 105,402 | 120,379 | 248,445 | 331,562 | 371,428 | 694,598 | 1,110,951 | 2,733,365 | 5,331,689 | 16,022,888 | 26,576,359 | 50,973,935 |
Country / Region | 1 | 1000 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1820 | 1870 | 1913 | 1950 | 1973 | 1989 | 2008 |
A
Maddison' assumptions have been both admired and criticized by academics and journalists. By Bryan Haig, who has characterized Maddison's figures for 19th century Australia as "inaccurate and irrelevant",
W. J. MacPherson has described Maddison's work on early medieval India of using "dubious comparative data."[8] Maddison's estimates have also been critically reviewed and revised by the Italian economists Giovanni Federico[9] and Elio Lo Cascio/Paolo Malanima (see below).[10]
However, economist and journalist
Europe
1830–1938 (Bairoch)
The following estimates were made by the economic historian Paul Bairoch.[12] Contrary to most other estimates on this page, the GNP (at market prices) is given here in 1960 US dollars. Unlike Maddison, Bairoch allows for the fluctuation of borders, basing his estimates mostly on the historical boundaries at the given points in time.[13]
Country / Region | 1830 | 1840 | 1850 | 1860 | 1870 | 1880 | 1890 | 1900 | 1910 | 1913 | 1925 | 1938 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,314 | 4,320 |
Austria-Hungary | 7,210 | 8,315 | 9,190 | 9,996 | 11,380 | 12,297 | 15,380 | 19,400 | 23,970 | 26,050 | – | – |
Baltic countries
|
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,298 | 2,760 |
Belgium | 1,098 | 1,397 | 1,809 | 2,302 | 2,882 | 3,256 | 3,804 | 4,800 | 6,308 | 6,794 | 7,658 | 8,501 |
Bulgaria | – | – | – | 588 | 616 | 611 | 808 | 970 | 1,165 | 1,260 | 1,613 | 2,628 |
Czechoslovakia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6,822 | 8,050 |
Denmark | 256 | 292 | 361 | 476 | 612 | 788 | 1,095 | 1,544 | 2,031 | 2,421 | 2,893 | 2,893 |
Finland | 256 | 295 | 370 | 420 | 550 | 670 | 860 | 1,110 | 1,395 | 1,670 | 1,910 | 3,339 |
France | 8,582 | 10,335 | 11,870 | 13,326 | 16,800 | 17,381 | 19,758 | 23,500 | 26,869 | 27,401 | 36,262 | 39,284 |
Germany | 7,235 | 8,320 | 10,395 | 12,771 | 16,697 | 19,993 | 26,454 | 35,800 | 45,523 | 49,760 | 45,002 | 77,178 |
Greece | – | 200 | 220 | 250 | 365 | 440 | 640 | 780 | 910 | 1,540 | 2,340 | 4,200 |
Hungary | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,025 | 4,137 |
Ireland | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,862 | 1,907 |
Italy | 7,570 | 8,951 | 8,666 | 10,466 | 11,273 | 11,745 | 12,435 | 14,820 | 15,598 | 17,624 | 19,510 | 24,701 |
Netherlands | 913 | 1,105 | 1,318 | 1,502 | 1,823 | 2,188 | 2,660 | 3,164 | 4,150 | 4,660 | 6,696 | 7,987 |
Norway | 316 | 378 | 490 | 642 | 728 | 886 | 1,041 | 1,286 | 1,601 | 1,834 | 2,370 | 3,812 |
Poland | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,325 | 12,885 |
Portugal | 860 | 945 | 985 | 1,100 | 1,175 | 1,270 | 1,360 | 1,550 | 1,710 | 1,800 | 2,046 | 2,634 |
Romania | – | – | 760 | 836 | 950 | 1,100 | 1,350 | 1,700 | 2,125 | 2,450 | 5,123 | 6,780 |
Russia/ USSR
|
10,550 | 11,200 | 12,700 | 14,400 | 22,920 | 23,250 | 21,180 | 32,000 | 43,830 | 52,420 | 32,600 | 75,964 |
Serbia | – | – | – | 320 | 345 | 382 | 432 | 560 | 700 | 725 | – | – |
Spain | 3,600 | 4,150 | 4,700 | 5,400 | 5,300 | 5,400 | 5,675 | 6,500 | 7,333 | 7,450 | 9,498 | 8,511 |
Sweden | 557 | 617 | 729 | 860 | 1,025 | 1,385 | 1,700 | 2,358 | 3,261 | 3,824 | 4,627 | 6,908 |
Switzerland | 580 | 700 | 930 | 1,200 | 1,460 | 1,920 | 2,100 | 2,599 | 3,355 | 3,700 | 4,300 | 5,063 |
United Kingdom | 8,245 | 10,431 | 12,591 | 16,072 | 19,628 | 23,551 | 29,441 | 36,273 | 40,623 | 44,074 | 43,700 | 56,103 |
Yugoslavia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,870 | 5,221 |
Europe | 58,152 | 66,997 | 77,937 | 91,073 | 114,966 | 126,975 | 146,723 | 188,534 | 231,550 | 256,845 | 257,434 | 376,947 |
Western Europe[13] | 38,910 | – | – | 63,670 | – | – | – | 126,900 | - | 163,780 | 179,830 | 231,560 |
Eastern Europe[13] | 19,240 | – | – | 27,400 | – | – | – | 61,640 | – | 93,060 | 77,600 | 145,390 |
Country / Region | 1830 | 1840 | 1850 | 1860 | 1870 | 1880 | 1890 | 1900 | 1910 | 1913 | 1925 | 1938 |
1500–1870 (Lo Cascio/Malanima)
The following estimates are taken from a revision of Angus Maddison's numbers for the whole of Europe by the Italian economists Elio Lo Cascio and Paolo Malanima.[14] According to their calculations, the basic level of European GDP (PPP) was historically higher, but its increase was less pronounced.
Year | GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
|
---|---|
1500 | 111,680 |
1600 | 133,760 |
1700 | 159,440 |
1750 | 205,530 |
1800 | 253,900 |
1870 | 619,970 |
Empires
Indian empires (1–1947 CE)
Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for Indian subcontinent (including modern Pakistan and Bangladesh) refer to the following empires:[4]
^ At year 1, year 1000, year 1500 and till the start of British colonisation in India in 17th century, India's GDP always varied between ~22 - 33% world's total GDP,
Year | Indian subcontinent | Per Capita | Avg GDP growth rate
|
GDP (% World) | Population | Population (% World) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 33,750,000,000 | 450 | – | 32.0 | 70,000,000 | 32.5 |
1000 | 33,750,000,000 | 450 | 0.0% | 28.0 | 72,500,000 | 28 |
1500 | 60,500,000,000 | 550 | 0.117% | 24.4 | 79,000,000 | 25.1 |
1600 | 74,250,000,000 | 550 | 0.205% | 22.4 | 100,000,000 | 24.3 |
1700 | 90,750,000,000 | 550 | 0.201% | 24.4 | 165,000,000 | 27.36 |
1820 | 111,417,000,000 | 533 | 0.171% | 16 | 209,000,000 | 20.1 |
1870 | 134,882,000,000 | 533 | 0.975% | 12.1 | 253,000,000 | 19.9 |
1913 | 204,242,000,000 | 599 | 0.965% | 7.5 | 303,700,000 | 17 |
1950 | 30,600,000,000 | 619 | 0.23% | 4.2 | 359,000,000 | 14.2 |
Chinese empires
Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for China refer to the following empires:[4]
Year | Chinese region | per capita | Avg GDP growth rate
|
GDP (% World) | Population | Population (% World) | Period |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1600 | 96,000,000,000 | 600 | 0.44% | 28.95 | 160,000,000 | 28.77 | Ming dynasty |
1700 | 82,800,000,000 | 600 | -0.15% | 22.29 | 138,000,000 | 22.87 | Qing dynasty |
1820 | 228,600,000,000 | 600 | 0.85% | 32.91 | 381,000,000 | 36.57 | |
1870 | 189,740,000,000 | 530 | -0.37% | 17.08 | 358,000,000 | 28.06 | |
1913 | 241,431,000,000 | 552 | 0.56% | 8.83 | 437,140,000 | 24.38 | Republic of China |
British Empire and India
Goedele De Keersmaeker estimated the GDP of the
Roman Empire
Much work in estimating past GDP has been done in the study of the
B ^ Decimal fractions rounded to the nearest tenth. Italic numbers not directly given by the authors; they are obtained by multiplying the respective value of GDP per capita by estimated population size.
The GDP per capita of the Byzantine Empire, the continuation of the Roman Empire in the east, has been estimated by the World Bank economist Branko Milanović to range between $680 and 770 (in 1990 International Dollars) at its peak around 1000 AD, that is the reign of Basil II.[23] The Byzantine population size at the time is estimated to have been 12 to 18 million.[24] This would yield a total GDP somewhere between $8,160 and 13,860 million.
Year | Roman/Byzantine Empire | per capita | GDP (% World) | Population | Population (% World) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 25,100,000,000 | 570 | 24 | 44,000,000 | 20 |
1000 | 8,160,000,000 | 680 | 6.8 | 12,000,000 | 4.5 |
See also
- Exploitation colonialism
- List of countries by largest historical GDP
References
Citations
- pre-industrial societies were unlikely to ever exceed that ceiling. This in turn has implications for our assessment of the average standard of living in other, non-Western, pre-industrial economies like those of China, India, pre-Columbian Americas, and Africa....A further implication of these calculations is that a realistic maximum income that could be envisaged for the pre-industrial societies might be a bit more than twice the subsistence minimum, or around $PPP 1000 (at 1990 international prices).
- ^ Bairoch 1976, p. 282
- ^ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 95.
- ^ a b c d Maddison 2007, p. 379, table A.4.
- ^ a b Cox, Wendell (21 September 2015). "500 YEARS OF GDP: A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES". New Geography. Retrieved 4 September 2020.
- ^ Haig, Bryan. 2005. "Review of The World Economy: Historical Statistics by Angus Maddison," Economic Reports, volume 81.
- The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Dec., 1985), pp. 1026-1028.
- ^ MacPherson, W. J. "Reviewed Work(s): Class Structure and Economic Growth. India and Pakistan since the Moghuls by Angus Maddison." The Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 328. (Dec., 1972), pp. 1470-1472.
- ^ Federico 2002, pp. 111–120
- ^ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, pp. 391–420
- ^ "China's magnificent historic past". BBC News. 2005-03-10. Retrieved 2010-05-08.
- ^ Bairoch 1976, pp. 281, table 4; 295, table 10
- ^ German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, and the USSR plus Albania). All the rest of Europe makes up "Western Europe" (Bairoch 1976, pp. 317, 319).
- ^ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, p. 411, table 6
- ^ Jeffrey G. Williamson, David Clingingsmith (August 2005). "India's Deindustrialization in the 18th and 19th Centuries" (PDF). Harvard University. Retrieved 18 May 2017.
- ISBN 9781136168284.
- ^ Broadberry, Stephen; Gupta, Bishnupriya (2005). "Cotton textiles and the great divergence: Lancashire, India and shifting competitive advantage, 1600–1850" (PDF). International Institute of Social History. Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Retrieved 5 December 2016.
- ^ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 89.
- ^ Maddinson, Angus (2001). HS-8: The World Economy 1-2001 AD. OECD. pp. 241, 243, 261, 263, 264.
- ^ Goedele De Keersmaeker (2017), Polarity, Balance of Power and International Relations Theory: Post-Cold War and the 19th Century Compared, page 90, Springer Science+Business Media
- ISBN 978-0-521-78053-7
- ^ Scheidel, Friesen Nov. 2009, pp. 63–72
- ^ Milanovic 2006, p. 468
- ^ Milanovic 2006, p. 461
Bibliography
- GDP of the Roman Empire
- ISBN 0-521-85532-2, pp. 86–91
- Goldsmith, Raymond W. (1984): "An Estimate of the Size and Structure of the National Product of the Early Roman Empire", Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 263–288
- The Journal of Roman Studies, Vol. 70, pp. 101–125
- Hopkins, Keith (1995/6): "Rome, Taxes, Rents, and Trade", Kodai, Vol. 6/7, pp. 41–75
- Milanovic, Branko; Lindert, Peter H.; Williamson, Jeffrey G. (Oct. 2007): "Measuring Ancient Inequality’, NBERWorking Paper 13550, pp. 58–66
- The Journal of Roman Studies, Vol. 99, pp. 61–91
- ISBN 978-88-7228-405-6, pp. 31–54
- GDP of the Byzantine Empire
- Milanovic, Branko(2006): "An Estimate of Average Income and Inequality in Byzantium around Year 1000", Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 449–470
- European GDP per capita
- Bairoch, Paul (1976): "Europe's Gross National Product: 1800–1975", Journal of European Economic History, Vol. 5, pp. 273–340
- Angus Maddison — reviews and revisions
- ISBN 978-0-19-922721-1, p. 379, table A.4.
- Federico, Giovanni (2002): "The World Economy 0–2000 AD: A Review Article", European Review of Economic History, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 111–120 — review
- Lo Cascio, Elio; Malanima, Paolo (Dec. 2009): "GDP in Pre-Modern Agrarian Economies (1–1820 AD). A Revision of the Estimates", Rivista di storia economica, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 391–420 — critique of Maddison's estimates
External links
- Angus Maddison — Historical statistics
- Walter Scheidel — Papers on ancient economy and demography