Longevity escape velocity
In the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV), actuarial escape velocity[2] or biological escape velocity[3] is a hypothetical situation in which one's remaining life expectancy (not life expectancy at birth) is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, medical advances would increase people's remaining life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
The term is meant as an analogy to the concept of escape velocity in physics, which is the minimum speed required for an object to indefinitely move away from a gravitational body despite the gravitational force pulling the object towards the body.
Overview
For many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.
Mouse lifespan research has been the most contributive to conclusive evidence on the matter, since mice require only a few years before research results can be concluded.[4][5]
History of the concept
The term "longevity escape velocity" was coined by biogerontologist
The idea was even more popularized with the publishing of Aubrey de Grey and Michael Rae's book, Ending Aging, in 2007.
Predictions
Kurzweil predicts that longevity escape velocity will be reached before humanity will realize it.[8][9] Back in 2018, he predicted that it will be reached in 10–12 years, meaning that the event would occur around 2028–2030.[10] Aubrey de Grey has also similarly predicted that humanity has a 50 percent chance of reaching longevity escape velocity in the mid-late 2030s.[11][12]
See also
- Life extension
- Pro-aging trance
- Rejuvenation
- Technological utopianism
- Transhumanism
- Timeline of senescence research
References
- ^ Aubrey de Grey, A roadmap to end aging. In: TEDGlobal 2005.
- ^ "Actuarial Escape Velocity". The Futurist. 2008-03-25.
- PMID 36606268.
there are three distinct classes of longevity and anti-aging technologies that are emerging globally, and the ability of each class is clearly apparent in fending off aspects of biological decay. Tier 3, however, reigns supreme in rejuvenation therapies that may make up future pathways to reach biological escape velocity.
- ^ PMC 423155.
- ^ Dibbell, Julian (2006-10-23), "The Fast Supper", New York Magazine
- ^ Wilson, Robert Anton (November 1978). "Next Stop, Immortality". Future Life (6). Retrieved 29 November 2020.
- ^ Birnbaum, Ben (2006), "Extension program", Boston College Magazine, archived from the original on 2009-01-16, retrieved 2014-02-08
- ^ Diamandis, Peter H. (2017-11-10). "3 Dangerous Ideas From Ray Kurzweil". Singularity Hub. Retrieved 2020-11-15.
- ^ https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9qb2Vyb2dhbmV4cC5saWJzeW4uY29tL3Jzcw/episode/NzE5YWE0MzgtZTA0Ni0xMWVlLWJkZDEtOGZkYWE2NWUwYTJm?sa=X&ved=0CCoQz4EHahgKEwjI5ZLFme-EAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQlx0
- ^ Koulopoulos, Thomas (2018-01-19). "According to Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil, These Are the Most Dangerous and Disruptive Ideas". Inc.com. Retrieved 2020-11-15.
- ^ I now think there is a 50% chance that we will reach longevity escape velocity by 2036. After that point (the "Methuselarity"), those who regularly receive the latest rejuvenation therapies will never suffer from age-related ill-health at any age - Aubrey de Grey
- ^ "Defeating Aging by 2036". 9 April 2021.