Louis H. Bean
Louis H. Bean | |
---|---|
Born | Louis Hyman Bean April 15, 1896 Lithuania, Russian Empire |
Died | August 5, 1994 | (aged 98)
Occupation(s) | Economic and political analyst |
Children | 2 |
Louis Hyman Bean (April 15, 1896 – August 5, 1994) was an American economic and
Bean was born in
During the late 1930s, Bean began developing an interest in political analysis and predicted the results of many elections. After his successful projection in the 1948 presidential election,
Early life
Louis Hyman Bean was on April 15, 1896, in the
Economic analyst
In 1923, Bean joined the newly formed
In 1947, Bean returned to the office of the secretary of agriculture as the economic advisor to the farm secretary, and retired when his position was abolished in 1953.[12][13] He also wrote many books, pamphlets, and magazine articles.[14] In addition, Bean's work appeared in The Review of Economics and Statistics, a journal, on such topics as disposable income and industrial stock prices.[15][16][17]
Political analyst
According to author Theodore Rosenof, Bean began developing an interest in
Bean explained that he was captivated by a World Almanac compilation of state-by-state presidential election statistics since 1896 and discerned in them patterns that provoked further study. Secretary [Henry A.] Wallace encouraged this initial spark. Bean practiced what he termed the 'art' of political analysis and forecasting, insisting that it was indeed an art and not a science.[7]
In the 1936 presidential election, Bean projected Roosevelt to win in a landslide, carrying all of the states except Maine, Vermont, and Pennsylvania. This prediction ran contrary to most of the polls, which believed it to be a close race, but results broadly confirmed Bean's projection; Roosevelt won the 1936 presidential election with 523 electoral votes to Alf Landon's 8 electoral votes, carrying all the states except Maine and Vermont.[5][18] Bean did not believe that the Republican Party's strong showing in the 1938 or 1942 congressional elections would help them win the 1940 or 1944 presidential elections.[19] In 1940, Bean wrote a book titled Ballot Behavior. Claude E. Robinson of the Opinion Research Corporation wrote that the book provided a rough check for the political analyst and should be a part of the working kit of students.[20]
During the
In his book, Bean, unlike almost all other observers, cited the likelihood of a high voter turnout combined with the unpopularity of the Republican Congress's policies and asserted that Truman's victory was possible.[25] On election day, Truman defeated Dewey, a victory Newsweek called startling, astonishing, and "a major miracle".[26] Life magazine referred to Bean as the "Lone Prophet" of Truman's victory.[1][27] The Alfred A. Knopf publishing company, which publicized Bean's book, began advertising: "Oh Mr. Gallup! Oh Mr. Roper! Obviously you don't know Bean's How to Predict Elections."[a] Bean earned a reputation for successfully predicting Truman's victory.[30] Rosenof, however, argues that "the truth ... was somewhat more complicated",[25] as Bean's personal correspondence suggested that "in the end, however hesitantly", he "accepted the polls that consistently showed Dewey solidly ahead nationally".[1]
According to Rosenof, Bean's main analytical method emphasized the idea of "political tides"; it was similar to
Rosenof wrote: "After 1948, the nation's political climate changed in such a way as to render Bean's analytic methodology less useful".[3] In the 1952 presidential election, Bean refused to make a public projection, saying his method could not account for new factors.[32] He favored Democrat Adlai Stevenson against Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower but Eisenhower defeated Stevenson in a landslide. Bean was one of the few pollsters to accurately predict the victory of the incumbent governor Pat Brown over former vice president Richard Nixon in the 1962 California gubernatorial election.[5] In the 1950s and 1960s, Bean continued making electoral analyses and projections, most of which were accurate.[6]
Later life and legacy
In 1970 he wrote another book, The Art of Forecasting.[33] Rosenof wrote; "while the 1948 election signaled Bean's rise to prominence, it also marked the height of his influence".[34] Bean's wife Dorothy died in 1991 and Bean died on August 5, 1994, due to congestive heart failure at his home in Arlington, Virginia.[5][6]
Economist Karl A. Fox mentioned Bean as one of the eight main agricultural economists in the first half of the twentieth century.[35] Bean is best known for his successful prediction in the 1948 presidential election.[6] Pollster Elmo Roper later argued that, in the book How to Predict Elections, Bean made no clear prediction.[27]
See also
Notes
- ^ Referring to George Gallup and Elmo Roper, the leading poll-takers of the time. After his victory, Truman became the first candidate to lose in a Gallup poll but win the election.[28] Roper had previously announced his organization would discontinue polling since it had already predicted Dewey's victory by a large majority of electoral votes.[29]
References
Citations
- ^ a b c Rosenof 1999, p. 72.
- ^ a b c d e FDR Library, p. ii.
- ^ a b Rosenof 1999, p. 63.
- ^ Hess 1970, pp. 1–2.
- ^ a b c d e Pearson 1994.
- ^ a b c d Pace 1994, p. 7.
- ^ a b Rosenof 1999, p. 65.
- ^ Businessweek 1951, pp. 64, 66.
- ^ a b Rosenof 1999, pp. 63–65.
- ^ Schapsmeier & Schapsmeier 1968, p. 59.
- ^ Hess 1970, pp. 3–8.
- ^ FDR Library, pp. ii–iii.
- ^ Kennedy 1953, p. 16.
- ^ Businessweek 1951, pp. 64–66.
- ^ Bean 1946, pp. 199–202.
- ^ Bean 1947, pp. 199–200.
- ^ Bean 1952, pp. 260–261.
- ^ Bennett 2004, p. 216.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, p. 68.
- ^ Robinson 1941, p. 240.
- ^ Visser 1994, p. 48.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, pp. 69–70.
- ^ Albright 1949, p. 316.
- ^ Penniman 1949, p. 265.
- ^ a b Rosenof 2003, p. 23.
- ^ McCullough 1992, p. 710.
- ^ a b Campbell 2020, p. 69.
- ^ Sitkoff 1971, p. 613.
- ^ Lemelin 2001, p. 42.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, p. 69.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, pp. 66–67.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, p. 76.
- ^ FDR Library, p. iii.
- ^ Rosenof 1999, p. 78.
- ^ Herberich, Levitt & List 2009, pp. 1260, 1264.
Works cited
- Albright, Spencer (1949). "How To Predict Elections by Louis H. Bean (Review)". JSTOR 42865202.
- Bean, Louis H. (1946). "Relation of Disposable Income and the Business Cycle to Expenditures". JSTOR 1925416.
- Bean, Louis H. (1947). "Wholesale Prices and Industrial Stock Prices During and Immediately After the Two World Wars". JSTOR 1928631.
- Bean, Louis H. (1952). "Are Farmers Getting Too Much?". JSTOR 1925633.
- Bennett, G. Harry, ed. (2004). Roosevelt's Peacetime Administrations, 1933–41: A Documentary History. ISBN 978-0-7190-6565-1.
- "Louis Bean is 'The Best-Known Prophet Since Daniel'". ISSN 0007-7135.
- Campbell, W. Joseph (2020). Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections. ISBN 978-0-520-97213-1.
- "Papers of Louis H. Bean, 1896–1994". Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum. Retrieved November 21, 2021.
- Herberich, David H.; Levitt, Steven D.; List, John A. (2009). "Can Field Experiments Return Agricultural Economics to the Glory Days?" (PDF). JSTOR 20616292.
- Hess, Jerry N. (1970). "Louis H. Bean Oral History Interview". Harry S. Truman Presidential Library & Museum. Retrieved November 21, 2021.
- Kennedy, Paul P. (February 4, 1953). "Election Prophet Loses Federal Job". ProQuest 112615908.
- Lemelin, Bernard (2001). "The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948 – The Causes of Truman's 'Astonishing' Victory". Revue française d'études américaines. 87. ISSN 0397-7870.
- McCullough, David (1992). Truman. OL 1704072M.
- Pace, Eric (August 8, 1994). "Louis H. Bean, 98, Analyst Best Known For 1948 Prediction". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 21, 2021. Retrieved November 21, 2021.
- Pearson, Richard (August 6, 1994). "Louis H. Bean Dies at 98". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 21, 2021.
- Penniman, Howard (1949). "How to Predict Elections by Louis H. Bean (Review)". JSTOR 2126512.
- Robinson, Claude (1941). "Ballot Behavior by Louis H. Bean (Review)". JSTOR 1024200.
- Rosenof, Theodore (1999). "The Legend of Louis Bean: Political Prophecy and the 1948 Election". JSTOR 24450539.
- Rosenof, Theodore (2003). Realignment: The Theory That Changed the Way we Think About American Politics. OL 7925159M.
- Schapsmeier, Edward L.; Schapsmeier, Frederick H. (1968). Henry A. Wallace of Iowa: The Agrarian Years, 1910–1940. OL 5602903M.
- Sitkoff, Harvard (1971). "Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming of Age of Civil Rights in American Politics". JSTOR 2206548.
- Visser, Max (1994). "The Psychology of Voting Action: On the Psychological Origins of Electoral Research, 1939-1964". ISSN 0022-5061.