Next Spanish general election

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Next Spanish general election
← 2023 No later than 22 August 2027
All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of 266) seats in the Senate
176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion polls
 
Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pedro Sánchez Santiago Abascal
Party PP PSOE Vox
Leader since 2 April 2022 18 June 2017 20 September 2014
Leader's seat Madrid Madrid Madrid
Last election 137 seats, 33.1% 121 seats, 31.7% 33 seats, 12.4%
Current seats 137 120 33
Seats needed 39 56 143
 
Leader Yolanda Díaz Gabriel Rufián Míriam Nogueras
Party Sumar ERC Junts
Leader since 2 April 2023 14 October 2019 12 March 2021
Leader's seat Madrid Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 31 seats, 12.3% 7 seats, 1.9% 7 seats, 1.6%
Current seats 27 7 7
Seats needed 149 N/A[a] N/A[b]
Constituencies for the Congress of Deputies
Incumbent Prime Minister

Pedro Sánchez
PSOE



The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the 16th

Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 265 seats in the Senate
.

The inconclusive result of the 2023 election raised the possibility of a repeat election being held by late 2023 or early 2024. However, an agreement was ultimately reached between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) to support the re-election of incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in exchange of a controversial amnesty law for Catalan politicians convicted or investigated for events related to the 2017–2018 Spanish constitutional crisis and the 2019–2020 Catalan protests.[1][2] Sánchez's investiture was materialized on 16 November 2023, allowing him to form his third cabinet.[3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish

absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.[4][5] Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage
, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the

district magnitude.[7]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency would be entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
37 Madrid
32 Barcelona
16 Valencia
12 Alicante, Seville
11 Málaga
10 Murcia
9 Cádiz
8 A Coruña, Balearic Islands, Biscay, Las Palmas
7 Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Zaragoza, Santa Cruz de Tenerife
6 Almería, Córdoba, Gipuzkoa, Girona, Tarragona, Toledo
5 Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarre, Valladolid
4 Álava, Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, Salamanca
3 Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora
2 Soria

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an

Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza–Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.[4][6]

Election date

The term of each chamber of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 23 July 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 23 July 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOE no later than 29 June 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 22 August 2027.[6]

The prime minister has the prerogative to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot.[4] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of 2024 there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers.[8][9]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for

federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either chamber of the Cortes at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies.[6]
The electoral law provides for a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Con. Sen.
PP
List
 Alberto Núñez Feijóo Conservatism
Christian democracy 		33.06% 137 120 ☒N
PSOE
List
 Pedro Sánchez Social democracy 31.68% 121 72 checkY
Vox
List
 Santiago Abascal Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		12.38% 33 0 ☒N
Sumar
List
 Yolanda Díaz Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics 		12.33% 31 0 checkY
Podemos
List
 Ione Belarra Left-wing populism
Democratic socialism 		☒N [13]
ERC
List
 Gabriel Rufián
Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy
 1.89% 7 —[d] ☒N
Junts
List
 Míriam Nogueras
Catalan independence
Sovereigntism
Populism
 1.60% 7 1 ☒N
EH Bildu
List
 Mertxe Aizpurua
Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism
 1.36% 6 —[d] ☒N
EAJ/PNV
List
 Aitor Esteban Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy 		1.12% 5 4 ☒N
BNG
List
 Néstor Rego Galician nationalism
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism 		0.62% 1 0 ☒N
CCa
List
 Cristina Valido Regionalism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism 		0.47% 1 0 ☒N
UPN
List
 Alberto Catalán Regionalism
Conservatism
Christian democracy 		0.21% 1 1 ☒N
ERC–
EH Bildu
List
 Mirella Cortès Gès Left-wing nationalism Senate 7[d] ☒N
ASG
List
 Fabián Chinea Insularism
Social democracy 		Senate 1 ☒N
EFS
List
 Juanjo Ferrer Progressivism Senate 1 ☒N
AHI
List
 Javier Armas Insularism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism 		Senate 1 ☒N

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election
Local regression trend line of poll results from 23 July 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Notes

  1. ^ ERC does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
  2. ^ Junts does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
  3. ^ José Luis Ábalos, former PSOE legislator.[11]
  4. ^ a b c ERC (3 senators) and EH Bildu (4 senators) joined the IPLI alliance ahead of the 2023 Senate election.

References

  1. ^ "Spanish elections: Uncertainty hangs over future government". Euronews. 24 July 2023. Retrieved 24 July 2023.
  2. ^ Pérez, Miriam (23 July 2023). "El escenario que no se puede descartar: un bloqueo tras el 23J y una repetición electoral para enero de 2024" (in Spanish). Business Insider. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
  3. ^ Monrosi, José Enrique; Ortiz, Alberto (16 November 2023). "Pedro Sánchez es investido presidente del Gobierno con más apoyos que en 2020". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  4. ^
    Constitución Española". Constitution of 29 December 1978
    (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 December 2016.
  5. ^ "Constitución española, Sinopsis artículo 66". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  6. ^ a b c d "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 July 2023.
  7. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  8. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios en el Congreso de los Diputados y el Senado". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
  9. ^ "Composición del Senado 1977-2024". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
  10. ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 August 2023.
  11. ^ "El exministro José Luis Ábalos mantendrá su escaño en el Congreso" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  12. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios desde 1977". Senate of Spain (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 July 2020.
  13. ^ "Los cinco diputados de Podemos abandonan el grupo parlamentario de Sumar y se unen al grupo mixto" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
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