Nuclear disarmament
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Nuclear disarmament is the act of reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons. Its end state can also be a nuclear-weapons-free world, in which nuclear weapons are completely eliminated. The term denuclearization is also used to describe the process leading to complete nuclear disarmament.[2][3]
Disarmament and non-
Proponents of nuclear disarmament say that it would lessen the probability of nuclear war occurring, especially considering accidents or retaliatory strikes from false alarms.[4] Critics of nuclear disarmament say that it would undermine deterrence and make conventional wars more common.
Organizations
In recent years, some U.S. elder statesmen have also advocated nuclear disarmament.
History
In 1945 in the
On August 6, 1945, towards the end of
In 1946 the Truman administration commissioned the Acheson-Lilienthal Report, which proposed the international control of the nuclear fuel cycle, revealing atomic energy technology to the USSR, and the decommissioning of all existing nuclear weapons through the new United Nations (UN) system, via the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission (UNAEC). With key modifications, the report became US policy in the form of the Baruch Plan, which was presented to the UNAEC during its first meeting in June 1946. As Cold War tensions emerged, it became clear that Stalin wanted to develop his own atomic bomb and that the United States insisted on an enforcement regime that would have overridden the UN Security Council veto. This soon led to deadlock in the UNAEC.[12][13]
Nuclear disarmament movement
Peace movements emerged in Japan and in 1954 they converged to form a unified "Japanese Council Against Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs". Japanese opposition to the Pacific nuclear weapons tests was widespread, and "an estimated 35 million signatures were collected on petitions calling for bans on nuclear weapons".[16] In the United Kingdom, the first Aldermaston March organised by the Direct Action Committee and supported by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament took place on Easter 1958, when several thousand people marched for four days from Trafalgar Square, London, to the Atomic Weapons Research Establishment close to Aldermaston in Berkshire, England, to demonstrate their opposition to nuclear weapons.[17][18] CND organised Aldermaston marches into the late 1960s when tens of thousands of people took part in the four-day events.[16]
On November 1, 1961, at the height of the
In 1958,
In the 1980s, a movement for nuclear disarmament again gained strength in the light of the weapons build-up and statements of
On June 3, 1981,
On June 12, 1982, one million people demonstrated in New York City's
On May 1, 2005, 40,000 anti-nuclear/anti-war protesters marched past the United Nations in New York, 60 years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.[38][39][40] In 2008, 2009, and 2010, there have been protests about, and campaigns against, several new nuclear reactor proposals in the United States.[41][42][43]
There is an annual protest against U.S. nuclear weapons research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and in the 2007 protest, 64 people were arrested.[44] There have been a series of protests at the Nevada Test Site and in the April 2007 Nevada Desert Experience protest, 39 people were cited by police.[45] There have been anti-nuclear protests at Naval Base Kitsap for many years, and several in 2008.[46][47][48]
In 2017, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons".[49]
World Peace Council
One of the earliest peace organisations to emerge after the Second World War was the
In 1950, the WPC launched its Stockholm Appeal[56] calling for the absolute prohibition of nuclear weapons. The campaign won support, collecting, it is said, 560 million signatures in Europe, most from socialist countries, including 10 million in France (including that of the young Jacques Chirac), and 155 million signatures in the Soviet Union – the entire adult population.[57] Several non-aligned peace groups who had distanced themselves from the WPC advised their supporters not to sign the Appeal.[55]
The WPC had uneasy relations with the non-aligned peace movement and has been described as being caught in contradictions as "it sought to become a broad world movement while being instrumentalized increasingly to serve foreign policy in the Soviet Union and nominally socialist countries."[58] From the 1950s until the late 1980s it tried to use non-aligned peace organizations to spread the Soviet point of view. At first there was limited co-operation between such groups and the WPC, but western delegates who tried to criticize the Soviet Union or the WPC's silence about Russian armaments were often shouted down at WPC conferences[54] and by the early 1960s they had dissociated themselves from the WPC.
Arms reduction treaties
After the 1986 Reykjavík Summit between U.S. President Ronald Reagan and the new Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, the United States and the Soviet Union concluded two important nuclear arms reduction treaties: the INF Treaty (1987) and START I (1991). After the end of the Cold War, the United States and the Russian Federation concluded the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (2003) and the New START Treaty (2010). The US withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019 under president Donald Trump,[59] and launched the United States–Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD) in 2021 under president Joe Biden.[60][61]
When the extreme danger intrinsic to nuclear war and the possession of nuclear weapons became apparent to all sides during the Cold War, a series of disarmament and nonproliferation treaties were agreed upon between the United States, the Soviet Union, and several other states throughout the world. Many of these treaties involved years of negotiations, and seemed to result in important steps in arms reductions and reducing the risk of nuclear war.
Key treaties
- Partial Test Ban Treaty(PTBT) 1963: Prohibited all testing of nuclear weapons except underground.
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)—signed 1968, came into force 1970: An international treaty (currently with 189 member states) to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. The treaty has three main pillars: nonproliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology.
- Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms (SALT I) 1972: The Soviet Union and the United States agreed to a freeze in the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) that they would deploy.
- Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) 1972: The United States and Soviet Union could deploy ABM interceptors at two sites, each with up to 100 ground-based launchers for ABM interceptor missiles. In a 1974 Protocol, the US and Soviet Union agreed to only deploy an ABM system to one site.
- Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) 1979: Replacing SALT I, SALT II limited both the Soviet Union and the United States to an equal number of ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers. Also placed limits on Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVS).
- cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range).
- Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I)—signed 1991, ratified 1994: Limited long-range nuclear forces in the United States and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union to 6,000 attributed warheads on 1,600 ballistic missiles and bombers.
- Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II)—signed 1993, never put into force: START II was a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia which attempted to commit each side to deploy no more than 3,000 to 3,500 warheads by December 2007 and also included a prohibition against deploying multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
- Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty(SORT or Moscow Treaty)—signed 2002, into force 2003: A very loose treaty that is often criticized by arms control advocates for its ambiguity and lack of depth, Russia and the United States agreed to reduce their "strategic nuclear warheads" (a term that remained undefined in the treaty) to between 1,700 and 2,200 by 2012. Was superseded by New Start Treaty in 2010.
- Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)—signed 1996, not yet in force: The CTBT is an international treaty (currently with 181 state signatures and 148 state ratifications) that bans all nuclear explosions in all environments. While the treaty is not in force, Russia has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1990 and the United States has not since 1992.[62]
- New START Treaty—signed 2010, into force in 2011: replaces SORT treaty, reduces deployed nuclear warheads by about half, will remain into force until 2026.
- Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons—signed 2017, entered into force on January 22, 2021: prohibits possession, manufacture, development, and testing of nuclear weapons, or assistance in such activities, by its parties.
Only one country (
United Nations
In its landmark resolution 1653 of 1961, "Declaration on the prohibition of the use of nuclear and thermo-nuclear weapons," the UN General Assembly stated that use of nuclear weaponry "would exceed even the scope of war and cause indiscriminate suffering and destruction to mankind and civilization and, as such, is contrary to the rules of international law and to the laws of humanity".[64]
The UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) is a department of the
Its goal is to promote nuclear disarmament and
Following the retirement of
On July 7, 2017, a UN conference adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons with the backing of 122 states. It opened for signature on September 20, 2017.
The 2022 United Nations Disarmament Yearbook described highlights and challenges in the previous year. As reported by the UN Press, "On the one hand, we saw record levels of military spending and division within important arms-control frameworks, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. On the other hand, we also saw the first-ever Meeting of States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons"[66]
U.S. nuclear policy
Despite a general trend toward disarmament in the early 2000s, the
Controversial U.S. nuclear policies
- Reliable Replacement Warhead Program (RRW): This program seeks to replace existing warheads with a smaller number of warhead types designed to be easier to maintain without testing. Critics charge that this would lead to a new generation of nuclear weapons and would increase pressures to test.[70]Congress has not funded this program.
- Complex Transformation: Complex transformation, formerly known as Complex 2030, is an effort to shrink the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and restore the ability to produce "pits", the fissile cores of the primaries of U.S. thermonuclear weapons. Critics see it as an upgrade to the entire nuclear weapons complex to support the production and maintenance of the new generation of nuclear weapons. Congress has not funded this program.
- Nuclear bunker buster: Formally known as the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP), this program aimed to modify an existing gravity bomb to penetrate into soil and rock in order to destroy underground targets. Critics argue that this would lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons. Congress did not fund this proposal, which was later withdrawn.
- Missile Defense: Formerly known as National Missile Defense, this program seeks to build a network of interceptor missiles to protect the United States and its allies from incoming missiles, including nuclear-armed missiles. Critics have argued that this would impede nuclear disarmament and possibly stimulate a nuclear arms race. Elements of missile defense are being deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic, despite Russian opposition.
Former U.S. officials Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, Bill Perry, and Sam Nunn (aka 'The Gang of Four' on nuclear deterrence)[71] proposed in January 2007 that the United States rededicate itself to the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, concluding: "We endorse setting the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons and working energetically on the actions required to achieve that goal." Arguing a year later that "with nuclear weapons more widely available, deterrence is decreasingly effective and increasingly hazardous," the authors concluded that although "it is tempting and easy to say we can't get there from here, [...] we must chart a course toward that goal."[72] During his presidential campaign, former U.S. President Barack Obama pledged to "set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it."[73]
U.S. programs to reduce risk of nuclear terrorism
The United States has taken the lead in ensuring that nuclear materials globally are properly safeguarded. A popular program that has received bipartisan domestic support for over a decade is the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (CTR). While this program has been deemed a success, many [who?] believe that its funding levels need to be increased so as to ensure that all dangerous nuclear materials are secured in the most expeditious manner possible.[citation needed] The CTR program has led to several other innovative and important nonproliferation programs that need to continue to be a budget priority in order to ensure that nuclear weapons do not spread to actors hostile to the United States.[citation needed]
Key programs:
- Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR): The CTR program provides funding to help Russia secure materials that might be used in nuclear or weapons of mass destructionand their associated infrastructure in Russia.
- Global Threat Reduction Initiative(GTRI): Expanding on the success of the CTR, the GTRI will expand nuclear weapons and material securing and dismantlement activities to states outside of the former Soviet Union.
Other states
List of countries'
While the vast majority of states have adhered to the stipulations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a few states have either refused to sign the treaty or have pursued nuclear weapons programs while not being members of the treaty. Many view the pursuit of nuclear weapons by these states as a threat to nonproliferation and world peace.[74]
- Declared nuclear weapon states not party to the NPT:[75]
- Indian nuclear weapons: 80–100 active warheads
- Pakistani nuclear weapons: 90–110 active warheads
- North Korean nuclear weapons: <30 active warheads
- Undeclared nuclear weapon states not party to the NPT:
- Nuclear weapon states not party to the NPT that disarmed and joined the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states:
- South African nuclear weapons: disarmed from 1989–1993
- Former Soviet states that disarmed and joined the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states:
- Non-nuclear weapon states party to the NPT currently accused of seeking nuclear weapons:
- Non-nuclear weapon states party to the NPT who acknowledged and eliminated past nuclear weapons programs:
Semiotics
The precise use of terminology in the context of disarmament may have important implications for political
Similarly, the term "irreversible" has been argued to set an impossible standard for states to disarm.[85]
Recent developments
Eliminating nuclear weapons has long been an aim of the pacifist left. But now many mainstream politicians, academic analysts, and retired military leaders also advocate nuclear disarmament. Sam Nunn, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and George Shultz have called upon governments to embrace the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and in three op-eds in The Wall Street Journal proposed an ambitious program of urgent steps to that end. The four have created the Nuclear Security Project to advance this agenda. Nunn reinforced that agenda during a speech at the Harvard Kennedy School on October 21, 2008, saying, "I'm much more concerned about a terrorist without a return address that cannot be deterred than I am about deliberate war between nuclear powers. You can't deter a group who is willing to commit suicide. We are in a different era. You have to understand the world has changed."[86] In 2010, the four were featured in a documentary film entitled Nuclear Tipping Point. The film is a visual and historical depiction of the ideas laid forth in The Wall Street Journal op-eds and reinforces their commitment to a world without nuclear weapons and the steps that can be taken to reach that goal.[87]
The
The
Among the prominent figures who have called for the abolition of nuclear weapons are "the philosopher Bertrand Russell, the entertainer Steve Allen, CNN's Ted Turner, former Senator Claiborne Pell, Notre Dame president Theodore Hesburgh, South African Bishop Desmond Tutu and the Dalai Lama".[90]
Others have argued that nuclear weapons have made the world relatively safer, with peace through
Former Secretary Kissinger says there is a new danger, which cannot be addressed by deterrence: "The classical notion of deterrence was that there was some consequences before which aggressors and evildoers would recoil. In a world of suicide bombers, that calculation doesn't operate in any comparable way".[98] George Shultz has said, "If you think of the people who are doing suicide attacks, and people like that get a nuclear weapon, they are almost by definition not deterrable".[99]
Andrew Bacevich wrote that there is no feasible scenario under which the US could sensibly use nuclear weapons:
For the United States, they are becoming unnecessary, even as a deterrent. Certainly, they are unlikely to dissuade the adversaries most likely to employ such weapons against us -- Islamic extremists intent on acquiring their own nuclear capability. If anything, the opposite is true. By retaining a strategic arsenal in readiness (and by insisting without qualification that the dropping of atomic bombs on two Japanese cities in 1945 was justified), the United States continues tacitly to sustain the view that nuclear weapons play a legitimate role in international politics ... .[100]
In The Limits of Safety, Scott Sagan documented numerous incidents in US military history that could have produced a nuclear war by accident. He concluded:
while the military organizations controlling U.S. nuclear forces during the Cold War performed this task with less success than we know, they performed with more success than we should have reasonably predicted. The problems identified in this book were not the product of incompetent organizations. They reflect the inherent limits of organizational safety. Recognizing that simple truth is the first and most important step toward a safer future.[101]
On January 3, 2022, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States issued a statement on prevention of nuclear war, affirming that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."[102]
On February 21, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia's participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States.[103]
See also
- Anti-nuclear organizations
- Baruch Plan
- Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
- Countdown to Zero
- International Atomic Energy Agency
- List of anti-war organizations
- List of peace activists
- Megatons to Megawatts Program
- Nuclear-free zone
- Nuclear proliferation
- Nuclear warfare
- Nuclear weapons and the United States
- Nuclear weapons convention
- Nuclear-Weapon-Ban treaty
- Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone
- Prevention of nuclear catastrophe
- Pacem in terris
- Seabed Arms Control Treaty
- Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT)
- Tehran International Conference on Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, 2010
- Trust, but verify
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- ^ Introduction — Kenneth Waltz, "The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better", Adelphi Papers, Number 171 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1981) Archived October 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Kenneth Waltz, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May be Better,”
- ^ Waltz, Kenneth (July–August 2012). "Why Iran Should Get the Bomb: Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability". Foreign Affairs (July/August 2012). Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved August 25, 2012.
- ^ Atomic Obsession. Archived from the original on April 16, 2012. Retrieved September 4, 2012.
- ^ http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/2333 Archived August 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine From 19:00 to 26:00 minutes
- ^ http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/AtomicO: John Mueller, "Atomic Obsession"
- ^ Ben Goddard (January 27, 2010). "Cold Warriors say no nukes". The Hill. Archived from the original on February 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
- ^ Hugh Gusterson (March 30, 2012). "The new abolitionists". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Archived from the original on February 17, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
- ISBN 9780805088151.
- ISBN 978-0-691-02101-0.
- ^ "Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war". NBC News. January 4, 2022. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
- ^ "Putin pulls back from last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the US". CNN. February 21, 2023.
Further reading
- Freeman, Stephanie L. Dreams for a Decade: International Nuclear Abolitionism and the End of the Cold War (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2023). ISBN 978-1-5128-2422-3
- Kostenko, Y., & D’Anieri, P. (2021). Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: A History (S. Krasynska, L. Wolanskyj, & O. Jennings, Trans.). Cambridge: Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute.
External links
- New Video: A World Without Nuclear Weapons
- Nuclear Files.org Archived December 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine—Arms Control and Disarmament
- Annotated bibliography for nuclear arms control from the Alsos Digital Library for Nuclear Issues Archived February 3, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
- The Woodrow Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project or NPIHP is a global network of individuals and institutions engaged in the study of international nuclear history through archival documents, oral history interviews and other empirical sources.
- Council for a Livable World
- Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
- People v The Bomb: Showdown at the UN, TV documentary report on 2005 NPT Review crisis
- William Walker, "President-elect Obama and Nuclear Disarmament. Between Elimination and Restraint.", Proliferation Papers, Paris, Ifri, Winter 2009
- Robert S. Norris & Hans M. Kristensen, "Nuclear U.S. and Soviet/Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles, 1959-2008"
- Robert S. Norris & Hans M. Kristensen, "U.S. nuclear forces, 2009", Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- Seiitsu Tachibana, "Bush administration's nuclear weapons policy : New obstacles to nuclear disarmament" Hiroshima Peace Science, Vol. 24, pages 105-133 (2002)
- Nuclear Disarmament at the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs
- Nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation - SIPRI
- WNYC Radio's documentary record of the marchers who participated in the June 12, 1982 New York City anti-nuclear protest.