1980 October Surprise theory

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This article is about the specific 1980 events. For the general concept, see October surprise.

The 1980 October Surprise theory refers to an allegation that representatives of

Islamic Republic of Iran announced the release of the hostages.[5]

According to the allegation, on top of

covertly supplying Iran with weapons via Israel likely originated as a further quid pro quo for having delayed the release until after Reagan's inauguration, setting a precedent for covert U.S.-Iran arms deals that would feature heavily in the subsequent Iran–Contra affair
.

After 12 years of varying media attention, both houses of the

U.S. National Security Council member Gary Sick,[10] and Barbara Honegger,[11] a former campaign staffer and White House analyst for Reagan and his successor, George H. W. Bush
—have stood by the allegation.

Background

Main article: Iran hostage crisis

In November 1979, a number of U.S. hostages were captured in Iran during the Iranian Revolution. The Iran hostage crisis continued into 1980; as the November 1980 presidential election approached, there were concerns in the Republican Party that a resolution of the crisis could constitute an "October surprise" which might give incumbent Jimmy Carter enough of an electoral boost to be re-elected.[12] After the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981, mere minutes after Republican challenger Ronald Reagan's inauguration, some charged that the Reagan campaign had made a secret deal with the Iranian government whereby the Iranians would hold the hostages until after Reagan was elected and inaugurated.[13]

The issue of an "October Surprise" was brought up during an investigation by a House of Representatives Subcommittee into how the 1980 Reagan Campaign obtained debate briefing materials of then-President Carter. During that investigation, sometimes referred to as

Donald Albosta (D–MI), issued a comprehensive report on May 17, 1984, describing each type of information that was detected and its possible source. A section of the report was dedicated to the October Surprise issue.[14]

Origins

The first printed instance of the October Surprise theory has been attributed to a story in the December 2, 1980, issue of

Majlis in late October."[15]

The theory garnered little attention until news of the

Carter administration.[20][21] Silberman later wrote: "Ironically, it was I who unwittingly initiated the so-called 'October Surprise' story, which grew into an utterly fantastic tale".[21] An article by Bob Woodward and Walter Pincus a few days later in the November 29, 1986 The Washington Post said that United States officials tied to Reagan, well before the Iran Contra affair, considered an initiative to sell US-made military parts to Iran in exchange for the hostage held there.[22] The House October Surprise Task Force credited the Woodward/Pincus article as raising "claims that would become keystones in the October Surprise theory".[22]

The

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani were involved in negotiations with the Reagan campaign to delay the release of the hostages until Reagan became president.[15][22]

Chronology

The House October Surprise Task Force outlined as "principal allegations" three supposed meetings between representatives of Reagan's campaign and Iranian government officials in the summer and fall of 1980 to delay the release of the hostages: 1) a meeting in Madrid during the summer, 2) a meeting at the

L'Enfant Plaza Hotel in Washington, D.C that autumn, and 3) a meeting in Paris in October.[23] The Task Force characterized three other alleged meetings or contacts as "ancillary allegations": 1) a meeting at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. in early spring 1980, 2) a meeting at the Churchill Hotel in London in the summer of 1980, and 3) a meeting at the Sherry Netherlands Hotel in New York in January 1981.[23]

Investigations

Gary Sick

External videos
video icon Booknotes interview with Gary Sick on October Surprise, December 1, 1991, C-SPAN

The October Surprise allegations gained traction in the mainstream media after an editorial column by Gary Sick was published in The New York Times on April 15, 1991.[36] Sick, who had served as President Carter's Iranian expert on the National Security Council, wrote: "I have been told repeatedly that individuals associated with the Reagan-Bush campaign of 1980 met secretly with Iranian officials to delay the release of the American hostages until after the presidential election. For this favor, Iran was rewarded with a substantial supply of arms from Israel."[34][36] Sick wrote that members of the Reagan-Bush campaign had met with high-level representatives of Iran and Israel in a series of meeting in Paris between October 15-20, 1980, and that there were 15 sources who had direct or indirect knowledge of the event.[34][36]

Sick later published a book (October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan),[10] published in November 1991, on the subject. Sick's credibility was boosted by the fact that he was a retired naval captain, served on Ford's, Carter's, and Reagan's National Security Council, and held high positions with many prominent organizations; moreover, he had authored a book recently on US-Iran relations (All Fall Down). Sick wrote that in October 1980, officials in Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign, including future CIA Director William Casey, made a secret deal with Iran to delay the release of the American hostages until after the election; in return for this, the United States purportedly arranged for Israel to ship weapons to Iran.

Sick admitted that "The story is tangled and murky, and it may never be fully unraveled." He was unable to prove his claims, including that, in the days before the presidential election with daily press pools surrounding him and a public travel schedule, vice presidential candidate George H. W. Bush secretly left the country and met with Iranian officials in France to discuss the fate of the hostages.[37]

Frontline / Robert Parry

External videos
video icon FRONTLINE (S09E08) The Election Held Hostage, April 16, 1991,
William Casey met in Madrid to delay the release of the hostages, 2) that there was a meeting in Paris to finalize the deal, and 3) that there were shipments of American-made arms from Israel to Iran.[39]

In a second episode released on April 7, 1992, Parry "investigate[d] whether or not William Casey, Reagan's campaign director, could have met with Iranians in Paris and Madrid in the summer of 1980."[40] This program discussed the alleged whereabouts of Casey and Mehdi Karroubi, the credibility of witnesses to the meetings, and other theories about the alleged evidence.[41]

Danny Casolaro

In August 1991, freelance writer

Inslaw Affair. His death was ruled a suicide. The case was the subject of a 2024 Netflix docuseries titled American Conspiracy: The Octopus Murders
.

Newsweek

LaRouche Movement.[43]

The New Republic

Steven Emerson and Jesse Furman of The New Republic also looked into the allegations and reported, in November 1991, that "the conspiracy as currently postulated is a total fabrication". They were unable to verify any of the evidence presented by Sick and supporters, finding them to be inconsistent and contradictory in nature. They also pointed out that nearly every witness of Sick's had either been indicted or was under investigation by the Department of Justice. Like the Newsweek investigation, they had also debunked the claims of Reagan election campaign officials being in Paris during the timeframe that Sick specified, contradicting Sick's sources.[44]

The Village Voice

Retired CIA analyst and counter-intelligence officer Frank Snepp of The Village Voice reviewed Sick's allegations, publishing an article in February 1992. Snepp alleged that Sick had only interviewed half of the sources used in his book, and supposedly relied on hearsay from unreliable sources for large amounts of critical material. Snepp also discovered that Sick had sold the rights to his book to Oliver Stone in 1989. After going through evidence presented by Richard Brenneke, Snepp asserted that Brenneke's credit card receipts showed him to be in Portland, Oregon, during the time he claimed to be in Paris observing the secret meeting.[45]

Senate investigation

The US Senate's November 1992 report concluded that "by any standard, the credible evidence now known falls far short of supporting the allegation of an agreement between the Reagan campaign and Iran to delay the release of the hostages."[46]

House of Representatives investigation

Main article: House October Surprise Task Force

The House of Representatives' January 1993 report concluded "there is no credible evidence supporting any attempt by the Reagan presidential campaign—or persons associated with the campaign—to delay the release of the American hostages in Iran".

Lee H. Hamilton (D Indiana) also added that the vast majority of the sources and material reviewed by the committee were "wholesale fabricators or were impeached by documentary evidence". The report also expressed the belief that several witnesses had committed perjury during their sworn statements to the committee, among them Richard Brenneke,[48] who claimed to be a CIA agent.[49]

Allegations

Former Iranian President Banisadr

It is now very clear that there were two separate agreements, one the official agreement with Carter in Algeria, the other, a secret agreement with another party, which, it is now apparent, was Reagan. They made a deal with Reagan that the hostages should not be released until after Reagan became president. So, then in return, Reagan would give them arms. We have published documents which show that US arms were shipped, via Israel, in March, about 2 months after Reagan became president.

— Former Iranian President Abolhassan Banisadr[50]

This accusation was made in Banisadr's 1989 memoir,

Khuzestan and that Zbigniew Brzezinski conspired with Saddam Hussein to plot Iraq's 1980 invasion of Iran. Foreign Affairs described the book as "a rambling, self-serving series of reminiscences" and "long on sensational allegations and devoid of documentation that might lend credence to Bani-Sadr's claims".[51]

Writing again in 2013 in The Christian Science Monitor, Banisadr reiterated and elaborated on his earlier statements:

I was deposed in June 1981 as a result of a coup against me. After arriving in France, I told a BBC reporter that I had left Iran to expose the

symbiotic
relationship between Khomeinism and Reaganism. Ayatollah Khomeini and Ronald Reagan had organized a clandestine negotiation, later known as the "October Surprise", which prevented the attempts by myself and then-US President Jimmy Carter to free the hostages before the 1980 US presidential election took place. The fact that they were not released tipped the results of the election in favor of Reagan.

Two of my advisors, Hussein Navab Safavi and Sadr-al-Hefazi, were executed by Khomeini's regime because they had become aware of this secret relationship between Khomeini, his son Ahmad, the Islamic Republican Party, and the Reagan administration.[52]

Barbara Honegger

Barbara Honegger was a campaign staffer

William Casey had conspired to assure that Iran would not free the U.S. hostages until Jimmy Carter had been defeated in the 1980 presidential election, and she alleges that arms sales to Iran were a part of that bargain.[11][non-primary source needed] In 1987, in the context of the Iran–Contra investigations, Honegger was reported as saying that shortly after October 22, 1980, when Iran abruptly changed the terms of its deal with Carter, a member of the Reagan campaign told her "We don't have to worry about an 'October surprise.' Dick cut a deal," with "Dick" referring to Richard V. Allen.[53][56]

Michael Riconosciuto

In context of his involvement in the

Inslaw affair, Michael Riconosciuto claimed that Reagan associate Earl Brian worked on an agreement with the Iranian government to delay the release of the hostages, and that the software was stolen in order to raise funds for Brian's payment.[57]

Kevin Phillips

Political historian Kevin Phillips has been a proponent of the idea. In his 2004 book American Dynasty, although Phillips concedes that many of the specific allegations were proven false, he also argues that in his opinion, Reagan campaign officials "probably" were involved in a scheme "akin to" the specific scheme alleged by Sick.[58]

Chase Bank revelations

In a memoir by Joseph V. Reed Jr. it is revealed that the "team" around David Rockefeller "collaborated closely with the Reagan campaign in its efforts to pre-empt and discourage what it derisively labeled an "October surprise" — a pre-election release of the American hostages, the papers show. The Chase team helped the Reagan campaign gather and spread rumors about possible payoffs to win the release, a propaganda effort that Carter administration officials have said impeded talks to free the captives."[59]

Duane "Dewey" Clarridge

Shortly after the death of

George Cave's novel, October 1980, was "really true". Schou noted that Cave denied actually believing that officials working on behalf of Reagan plotted to delay the release of the hostages.[60]

Declassified 1980 CIA memo

In 2017, a declassified CIA 1980 memo was released in which the agency concluded "Iranian hardliners – especially Ayatollah Khomeini" were "determined to exploit the hostage issue to bring about President Carter's defeat in the November elections."[61] MuckRock, a press organization specialized in Freedom of Information Act requests, argued that "While the document doesn't prove the Reagan campaign intended to collude with Iran, it does document Iran's motives and matches the October Surprise narrative outlined by former CIA officers George Cave and Duane 'Dewey' Clarridge."[61]

Ben Barnes

In March 2023, Peter Baker reported in The New York Times that former Texas governor John Connally, who had sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1980, travelled to several Arab countries and Israel between July 1980 and August 1980. According to Connally's close associate Ben Barnes, who accompanied him on the trip, Connally told the Arab officials whom he spoke with to relay a message to Iran to the effect that "Ronald Reagan's going to be elected president and you need to get the word to Iran that they're going to make a better deal with Reagan than they are Carter." Barnes also recounted accompanying Connally to a September 1980 meeting in Houston in which Connally briefed William J. Casey, Reagan's campaign manager and a central figure in many versions of the "October Surprise" theory, on the outcome of the trip, with Casey specifically asking if "[the Iranians] were going to hold the hostages."[62]

While there is documentation that this trip to the Middle East occurred and that Connally communicated with close Reagan associates during the trip, Baker states that there are "no diaries or memos to corroborate" Barnes's recollection of what, specifically, Connally told the Arab officials. Additionally, Barnes's account does not confirm "debunked previous theories of what happened," such as the Reagan campaign reaching an arms-for-hostages agreement with Iran prior to the outcome of the 1980 election. Barnes avoided scrutiny during the congressional "October Surprise" investigations, but his anecdote about Connally had been previously published in H. W. Brands's 2015 biography of Reagan, albeit "generat[ing] little public notice at the time" according to Baker. Barnes acknowledged not being in a position to assess personal involvement by Reagan himself or the effect (if any) that Connally's overture may have had on Iranian actions.[62]

In May 2023, Sick, former Carter administration Chief Domestic Policy Advisor Stuart E. Eizenstat, author Kai Bird, and journalist Jonathan Alter published an article in The New Republic outlining the various allegations and circumstantial evidence (including Barnes' allegations) that have emerged in the decades following the earlier investigations, declaring the credibility of the theory to be "all but settled."[63]

See also

References

  1. ^ Marcetic, Branko (March 26, 2023). "Once Dismissed as Absurd, Ronald Reagan's "October Surprise" Is Now Confirmed as True". Jacobin.
  2. ^ "Reagan-Carter Debate | Vanderbilt Television News Archive". tvnews.vanderbilt.edu. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  3. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 1: "The serious implications of the allegations-generally that members of the 1980 Reagan/Bush campaign met secretly with Iranian nationals to delay the release of American Embassy personnel then being held hostage in Iran-lent added importance to the debate."
  4. ^ Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate 1992, p. 1: "These allegations hold that Republican presidential campaign operatives and representatives of the Ayatollah Khomeini secretly agreed to delay the release of the American hostages held in Iran until after the November 1980 election, thereby assisting the defeat of incumbent President Jimmy Carter."
  5. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived
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  9. ^ Neil A Lewis (May 7, 1991). "Bani-Sadr, in U.S., Renews Charges of 1980 Deal". The New York Times. Retrieved July 31, 2009.
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  11. ^
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  12. New York Observer. Archived from the original
    on October 10, 2008. Retrieved January 27, 2009. The term "October surprise" is most famously associated with the 1980 campaign, when Republicans spent the fall worrying that Jimmy Carter would engineer a last-minute deal to free the American hostages who had been held in Iran since the previous year. Carter and Ronald Reagan were locked in a close race, but an awful economy and flagging national confidence made the president supremely vulnerable.
  13. ^ Lewis, Neil A. (January 13, 1993). "House Inquiry Finds No Evidence of Deal On Hostages in 1980". The New York Times. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  14. ISBN 978-0-7432-5339-0
    . "Unauthorized Transfers of Nonpublic Information During the 1980 Presidential Election", report prepared by the Subcommittee on Human Resources of the Committee on the Post Office and Civil Service, 17 May 1984, pt. 1 (see Chapter 3 footnotes 54–60)
  15. ^ a b c d e f Barry, John (November 10, 1991). "Making Of A Myth". Newsweek. Retrieved April 5, 2015.
  16. ISSN 0273-6314
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  18. ^ D'Amico 2019, p. 471.
  19. ^ Safire, William (November 24, 1986). "ESSAY; Enough Already". The New York Times. Section A, page 19. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
  20. ^ a b "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 62.
  21. ^ a b [32 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol'y 503. See also Dartmouth Alumni Magazine (Nov./Dec. 2008), at pp. 49-50.]
  22. ^ a b c d "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 61.
  23. ^ a b c "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 71.
  24. ^ a b c d e "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 104.
  25. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, pp. 104–105.
  26. ^ a b c d e "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 105.
  27. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, pp. 71–72.
  28. ^ a b c "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 72.
  29. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, pp. 100, 102.
  30. ^
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  31. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 102.
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  33. ^ Martin, Harry V. (1995). "Bush Deal With Iranians". Napa Sentinel. Retrieved December 9, 2008.
  34. ^ a b c d Sick, Gary (April 15, 1991). "The Election Story of the Decade". The New York Times. Retrieved December 23, 2008. (Congressional Record mirrored reprint)
  35. ^ "Tehran Militants Said to Hand Over Custory of Captives". The New York Times. November 28, 1980. pp. A1. Retrieved December 20, 2008.
  36. ^ a b c d Olinger, David (August 11, 1991). ""The October Surprise"". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  37. ^ "New Reports Say 1980 Reagan Campaign Tried to Delay Hostage Release". The New York Times. April 15, 1991. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  38. ^ "The Election Held Hostage". Frontline. PBS. April 16, 1991. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  39. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 65.
  40. ^ "Investigating the October Surprise". Frontline. PBS. April 7, 1992. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  41. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 66.
  42. The Columbia Journalism Review. Archived from the original
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  43. ^ Making of a Myth, Newsweek; November 11, 1991
  44. ^ The Conspiracy that Wasn't; Steven Emerson and Jesse Furman, The New Republic; November 18, 1991
  45. ^ Snepp, Frank (February 25, 1992). "October Surmise". Village Voice. Retrieved December 26, 2008.
  46. ^ Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate 1992, p. 115.
  47. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 8.
  48. ^ Persico, Joseph E. (December 22, 1991). "The Case for a Conspiracy". The New York Times.
  49. ^ Emerson, Steve; "No October Surprise", American Journalism Review, University of Maryland, vol. 15, issue n2, ppg. 16–24, March 1, 1993 (fee)
  50. ^ Interview with Barbara Honegger (author of October Surprise, Tudor, 1992)
  51. ^ Abol Hassan Bani-Sadr. "My Turn to Speak: Iran, the Revolution and Secret Deals with the US". Kirkus Reviews. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
  52. ^ "'Argo' helps Iran's dictatorship, harms democracy". Christian Science Monitor. March 5, 2013. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  53. ^ a b Hosenball, Mark (October 9, 1988). "IF IT'S OCTOBER...THEN IT'S TIME FOR AN IRANIAN CONSPIRACY THEORY". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  54. ^ New Statesman Society, Volume 1, Issues 13-21. Statesman & Nation Publishing Company Limited. 1988. p. 16.
  55. ^ Hasson, Judi (August 22, 1983). "Sex bias searcher quits post". UPI.com. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  56. ^ Jack McKinney (August 3, 1987). "A Question Never Asked Did Reagan Cut Deal With Iran To Win In '80?". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  57. ^ Lippman, Thomas W. (May 4, 1991). "TALE OF HOSTAGE INTRIGUE REFUSES TO DIE". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  58. Amazon.com
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  59. ^ Kirkpatrick, David D. (December 29, 2019). "How a Chase Bank Chairman Helped the Deposed Shah of Iran Enter the U.S." The New York Times. Retrieved January 19, 2020.
  60. ^ Schou, Nicholas (April 24, 2016). "The 'October Surprise' Was Real, Legendary Spymaster Hints in Final Interview". Newsweek.
  61. ^ a b North-Best, Emma (July 24, 2017). "Declassified CIA memo predicted the 1980 October Surprise". MuckRock. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  62. ^ a b Baker, Peter (March 18, 2023). "A Four-Decade Secret: The Untold Story of Sabotaging Jimmy Carter's Re-election". The New York Times. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  63. ^ Alter, Jonathan; Sick, Gary; Bird, Kai; Eizenstat, Stu (May 3, 2023). "It's All but Settled: The Reagan Campaign Delayed the Release of the Iranian Hostages". The New Republic. Retrieved July 22, 2023.

External links

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