Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

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Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the

One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error
of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.[1]

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 20 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF
MRI
 ACT UNF
CON
 MNA TOP
20 Sep 2014 2014 election result[2] 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42[nb 2] N/A
29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014
Roy Morgan Research[3]
 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1 N/A
27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan Research[4] 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5 N/A
24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014 Roy Morgan Research[5] 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1 N/A
8–21 Dec 2014 Herald–DigiPoll[6] 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2 N/A
5–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan Research[7] 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0 N/A
20–28 Jan 2015
3 News–Reid Research[8]
 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6 N/A
2–15 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan Research[9] 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0 N/A
14–18 Feb 2015
One News–Colmar Brunton[10]
 49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4 N/A
2–15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan Research[11] 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 – 1.5 – N/A
28 Mar 2015 The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
11–15 Apr 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton[12] 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 – 1.5 1.1 N/A
6–19 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan Research[13] 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 – 1 – N/A
17–26 Apr 2015 Herald-DigiPoll[14] 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 – 1.1 – N/A
4–17 May 2015 Roy Morgan Research[15] 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 – N/A
21 May 2015 The 2015 Budget is delivered.
23–27 May 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton[16] 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 – 2.3 – N/A
21–27 May 2015 3 News–Reid Research[17][18] 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 – 1.9 0.1 N/A
30 May 2015 James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader.[19]
8–21 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan Research[20] 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 – 1 – N/A
22–27 Jun 2015
The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear.[21]
29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015 Roy Morgan Research[22] 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 – N/A
11–15 Jul 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton[23] 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 – – 0.5 N/A
15–22 Jul 2015 3 News–Reid Research[24][18] 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2 N/A
3–16 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan Research[25] 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 – – 0.5 N/A
14–24 Aug 2015 Herald-DigiPoll[26] 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 – 0.6 0.2 N/A
29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton[27] 47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 – 0.1 0.2 N/A
31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015 Roy Morgan Research[28] 44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 N/A
8–16 Sep 2015 3 News–Reid Research[29] 47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 – 0.5 – N/A
31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015 Roy Morgan Research[30] 50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
10–14 Oct 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton[31] 47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 – 0.4 – N/A
26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015 Roy Morgan Research[32] 49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
9–17 Nov 2015 3 News–Reid Research[33][18] 46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 – 0.7 0.2 N/A
23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan Research[34] 49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – N/A
4–14 Dec 2015 Herald-DigiPoll[35] 51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 – – N/A
4–17 Jan 2016 Roy Morgan Research[36] 47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 – 1 – N/A
4 Feb 2016 The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
1–14 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan Research[37] 48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 – 1 0.5 N/A
13–17 Feb 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton[38] 47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 – 0.6 0.3 N/A
29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016 Roy Morgan Research[39] 46 28 14 9 1 1 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
2–6 Apr 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton[40] 50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 – 0.3 – N/A
4–17 Apr 2016 Roy Morgan Research[41] 42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 – 1 – N/A
2–15 May 2016 Roy Morgan Research[42] 45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 – N/A
12–22 May 2016 Newshub Reid Research[43][18] 47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 – 0.6 0.1 N/A
26 May 2016 The 2016 Budget is delivered.
31 May 2016 The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding.[44]
28 May – 2 Jun 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton[45] 48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 – 0.7 0.1 N/A
12 Jun 2016 Roy Morgan Research[46] 43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 – 1 1 N/A
17 Jul 2016 Roy Morgan Research[47] 53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 – 0.5 0.5 N/A
22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 Newshub Reid Research[48][18] 45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A
8–21 Aug 2016 Roy Morgan Research[49] 46 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 – 1 0.5 N/A
3–7 Sep 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton[50] 48 26 13 11 2 – – 0.3 – N/A
5–18 Sep 2016 Roy Morgan Research[51] 41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 – 0.5 – N/A
10–23 Oct 2016 Roy Morgan Research[52] 48 26.5 11.5 10 1.5 0.5 – – – N/A
14 Nov 2016 A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikōura.
Nov 2016 The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan.
12–23 Nov 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton[53] 50 28 11 10 1 – – 0.2 – –
24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016 Roy Morgan Research[54] 49.5 23.0 14.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
3 Dec 2016 Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election.
5 Dec 2016 John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December.
28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016 Roy Morgan Research[55] 45.0 28.5 14.5 7.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
12 Dec 2016 Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader.
3–16 Jan 2017 Roy Morgan Research[56] 46.0 27.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
1 Feb 2017 Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.
30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017 Roy Morgan Research[57] 48.0 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
11–15 Feb 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[58] 46 30 11 11 0.7 0.8 0.3[59] 0.2 0.8 0.0[59]
25 Feb 2017 Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election.
1 Mar 2017 Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus.
6 Mar 2017 The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.[60]
27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017 Roy Morgan Research[61] 43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
10–19 Mar 2017 Newshub Reid Research[62][63] 47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8
18–22 Mar 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[64][65] 46 30 11 8 4 0.4 – 0.3 0.2 0.4
3–16 Apr 2017 Roy Morgan Research[66] 43.0 29.5 13.0 10.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 –
1–14 May 2017 Roy Morgan Research[67] 43.0 28.5 14.0 10.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
25 May 2017 The 2017 budget is delivered.
19–24 May 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68] 43.75 23.75 16.25 10.00 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.25 – 2.50
21–31 May 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[69][70] 49 30 9 9 0.6 0.5 – 0.1 – 1.4
29 May – 11 Jun 2017 Roy Morgan Research[71] 46.5 25.5 14.0 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
12 Jun 2017 Newshub Reid Research[72][63] 47.4 26.4 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8
21 Jun 2017 National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent.[73] Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording.[74]
1–5 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[75] 47 27 11 11 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1
26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017 Roy Morgan Research[76] 43 30.5 13.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
16 Jul 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s.[77]
22–27 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[78][79] 47 24 15 11 0.6 0.3 0.1 – – 1.5
20–28 Jul 2017 Newshub Reid Research[80] 45.2 24.1 13 13 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2[81] 2
1 Aug 2017 Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.
1–2 Aug 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights[82] 45.42 26.79 13.98 9.32 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
3 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993.[83] The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.[84]
2–8 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research[85] 44.4 33.1 8.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2
9 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud.[86]
31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017 Roy Morgan Research[87] 42.5 32.5 9.0 11.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
12–16 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[88][89] 44 37 4.3 10 1.7 0.4 0.0 – – 2.1
21 Aug 2017 United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics.[90] Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later.[91]
27 Aug 2017 Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.[92][93]
22–30 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research[94][81] 43.3 39.4 6.1 6.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
26–30 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[95][96] 41 43 5 8 0.5 0.3 – – – 0.9
1–5 Sep 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97] 38.9 41.1 6.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 – – – 2.2
2–6 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[98][99] 39 43 5 9 2.0 0.1 – – – 1.9
4–6 Sep 2017 Newsroom-SSI[100] 30 45 6 11 2 1 – – – 2
28 Aug – 10 Sep 2017 Roy Morgan Research[101] 40 39.5 9 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 – 2
6–11 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research[102][81] 47.3 37.8 4.9 6.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
11 Sep 2017 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014).[103]
9–13 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[104][105] 40 44 7 6 0.9 0.6 – – – 1.6
13–20 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research[106][18][107] 45.8 37.3 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.6 – 0.6 0.1 0.9
15–19 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton[108][109] 46 37 8 4.9 0.5 0.3 – – – 2.3
23 Sep 2017 Election day
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[110] 44.4 36.9 6.3 7.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
Date[nb 1] Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF
MRI
 ACT UNF
CON
 MNA TOP

Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF
MRI
 ACT
CON
 MNA TOP
20 Sep 2014 2014 election result[2] 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 3.97 1.40[nb 2] N/A
Oct 2014 UMR Research[111] 50 24 13 7.8 1.5 0.6 3.0 0.8 N/A
Nov 2014 UMR Research[111] 47 25 13 7.6 2.7 0.4 3.0 0.8 N/A
Dec 2014 UMR Research[111] 45 30 14 6.1 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.5 N/A
Jan 2015 UMR Research[112] 48 31 12 5.8 1.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 N/A
Feb 2015 UMR Research[112] 46 32 12 5.0 1.5 0.7 2.7 0.3 N/A
Mar 2015 UMR Research[112] 46 31 11 6.9 1.6 0.4 3.1 0.4 N/A
Apr 2015 UMR Research[112] 43 32 13 7.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 N/A
May 2015 UMR Research[112] 46 31 10 6.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 0.4 N/A
Jun 2015 UMR Research[112] 45 32 13 7.5 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 N/A
Jul 2015 UMR Research[112] 41 35 14 6.7 1.2 0.3 3.0 0.5 N/A
Aug 2015 UMR Research[112] 42 31 14 8.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A
Sep 2015 UMR Research[112] 45 31 13 8.7 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 N/A
Oct 2015 UMR Research[112] 48 31 10 7.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 N/A
Nov 2015 UMR Research[112] 44 31 13 8.0 1.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 N/A
Dec 2015 UMR Research[112] 45 35 10 8.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 N/A
31 Aug – 5 Sep 2016 UMR Research[113] 40 31 14 11 – – – – N/A
Early Jan 2017 UMR Research[114] 46 30 11 9 – – – – –
Early Feb 2017 UMR Research[114] 44 30 12 11 – – – – –
Late Feb 2017 UMR Research[114] 48 28 12 8 – – – – –
Early Mar 2017 UMR Research[114] 42 30 14 10 – – – – –
Late Mar 2017 UMR Research[114] 44 30 12 10 – – – – –
Early Apr 2017 UMR Research[114] 43 28 13 12 – – – – –
Late Apr 2017 UMR Research[114] 43 28 12 12 – – – – –
Early May 2017 UMR Research[114] 42 34 13 9 – – – – –
Late May 2017 UMR Research[114] 44 30 13 9 – – – – –
Early Jun 2017 UMR Research[114] 42 32 13 9 – – – – –
Late Jun 2017 UMR Research[114] 43 29 12 11 – – – – –
5–10 Jul 2017 UMR Research[114] 42 26 13 14 – – – – –
Late Jul 2017 UMR Research[115][116] 42 23 15 16 – – – – –
1–8 Aug 2017 UMR Research[117][118] 43 36 8 8 – – – – 3
11–16 Aug 2017 UMR Research[119][120] 40 37 8 9 – – – – 3.5
20 Sep 2017 Curia[121] 43 39 6 6 – – – – –

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls from 2015 to September 2017. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date[nb 1] Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key
Herald-DigiPoll[6] 8–21 Dec 2014 – 1.7 – – – – – – 13.6 65
3 News-Reid Research[8][122] 20–28 Jan 2015 0.3 – 7.6 – – – – – 9.8 44.0
One News-Colmar Brunton[10]
 14–18 Feb 2015 0.6 0.7 7.0 – 0.4 – – 1.1 12.0 41.0
Herald-DigiPoll[14] 17–26 Apr 2015 – – 12 – – – – – 13.9 64.6
3 News Reid Research[17][122] 21–27 May 2015 0.6 – 11.2 – – – – – 11.6 39.4
3 News Reid Research[24][122] 15–22 Jul 2015 0.2 – 11.3 0.2 – – – – 10.2 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[26] 14–24 Aug 2015 – 3.9 11.6 0.6 – – – 0.9 13.3 63.7
3 News Reid Research[29][122] 8–16 Sep 2015 0.3 3.5 8.6 0.2 – – 0.1 – 10.8 39.5
3 News Reid Research[33][122] 9–17 Nov 2015 0.7 4.2 9.3 – – – 0.1 – 10.4 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[35] 4–14 Dec 2015 – 2.8 7.9 – – – – – 16.2 65.2
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 2–6 Apr 2016 0.9 2 10 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research[43][18][81] 12–22 May 2016 0.2 2.6 12.1 0.5 – – – – 8.9 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 0.4 1 12 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research[48][18][81] 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 0.3 2.9 10.9 0.9 – 0.3 – 1 10.5 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 3–7 Sep 2016 – 1 11 0.1 – – – – 10 38
One News Colmar Brunton[53][123] 12–23 Nov 2016 – 1 8 0.3 – 0.1 0.3 1 8 36
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[58][123] 11–15 Feb 2017 31 4 8 0.3 – 0.1 – 2 7 2
Newshub Reid Research[62][81] 10–19 Mar 2017 25 10.5 8.9 – – 0.1 – 1 8.3 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[65][123] 18–22 Mar 2017 26 9 9 0.5 0.3 – 0.2 0.4 7 2
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68] 19–24 May 2017 39 16 9 2 – 2 – 3 13 –
One News Colmar Brunton[69][123] 21–31 May 2017 29 6 7 0.4 – 0.2 0.1 0.7 8 2
Newshub Reid Research[72][81][122] 2–12 Jun 2017 26.2 6.6 9.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 7 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[75][123] 1–5 Jul 2017 26 6 11 0.5 0.5 0.7 – 0.2 5 1
One News Colmar Brunton[78][123] 22–27 Jul 2017 28 6 10 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 1 6 1
Newshub Reid Research[80][81] 20–28 Jul 2017 25.8 8.7 11.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.6 7.1 6
1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party.
Newshub Reid Research[85][81] 2–8 Aug 2017 27.7 26.3 10 0.2 0.5 0.6 – 0.8 0.9 4.9
9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[88][124] 12–16 Aug 2017 30 30 7 0.3 0.4 0.7 – – – 0.5
21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light.[125][90]
Newshub Reid Research[94][81] 22–30 Aug 2017 30.1 29.9 6.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0 0.8 0.3 4.6
One News Colmar Brunton[95][96] 26–30 Aug 2017 33 34 4 0.4 – 0.4 – 0.8 – –
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97] 1–5 Sep 2017 36 46 6 1 – 1 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton[98][99] 2–6 Sep 2017 31 35 5 1 0.1 0.5 – – 0.1 0.7
Newsroom: SSI[100] 4–6 Sep 2017 31 45 11 – – – – – – –
Newshub Reid Research[126][81] 6–11 Sep 2017 33.1 31.7 6.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 4.1
One News Colmar Brunton[104][105] 9–13 Sep 2017 32 34 5 0.3 – 0.3 – 0.2 – 0.6
Newshub Reid Research[106][122] 13–20 Sep 2017 34.7 29.6 7.1 0.6 – 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton[108][109] 15–19 Sep 2017 37 31 6 0.3 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 – 0.7
Poll Date[nb 1] Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First TOP United Future
Māori
 ACT
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.23 23.42 15.01 4.76 —* 0.73 0.57 0.67
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127] 5 – 9 Aug 2017 46 35 12 4 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Greg O'Connor

United Future

Peter Dunne

National

Brett Hudson

Green

Tane Woodley

TOP

Jessica Hammond Doube

 ACT

Andie Moore

Labour

Ginny Andersen

ACT

Sean Fitzpatrick

2014 election result 20 September 2014 — 36.23 16.34 7.38 —* — 34.34 0.55
14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne.[128]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127] 5 – 9 August 2017 48 34 14 — 2 1 — —
21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics.[90]
23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate[129] and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate.[130]

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Waiariki

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour
Māori
 NZ First National Green
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.37 21.79 12.54 5.00 7.98
Community Engagement Ltd[131] 19 – 22 July 2017 19.4 18.9 25.7 13.4 12.1
Maori TV-Reid Research[132] July – 3 September 2017 49.6 26.5 10.2 5.6 4.8

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1]
Māori

Te Ururoa Flavell

Labour

Tāmati Coffey

Labour

Rawiri Waititi

Mana

Annette Sykes

2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.42 — 26.06 24.48
26 Aug 2016 –
Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together.[133]

07 Oct 2016 – Tāmati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote.[134]

20 Feb 2017 –

Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour.[135]

Community Engagement Ltd[131] 19 – 22 July 2017 31.6 30.1 — —
Maori TV-Reid Research[132] July – 3 September 2017 60.1 39.9 — —

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour
Māori
 NZ First National Green Mana TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 41.22 14.05 12.98 7.93 11.17 10.22[nb 2] N/A*
Māori TV, Reid Research Poll[136] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 46.5 17.5 13.8 9.5 9.0 1.8 1.5

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Whangarei

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] National Labour NZ First Green
Māori
 ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.08 17.80 13.36 9.77 0.53 0.55 N/A*
30 Jun 2017 –
Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138] 19 – 22 Aug 2017 41 37 16 3.6 1.3 1.0 0.4

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] National

Shane Reti

NZ First

Shane Jones

Labour

Tony Savage

Green

Ash Holwell

DFSC

Chris Leitch

ACT

Robin Grieve

Labour

Kelly Ellis

NZ First

Pita Paraone

Green

Paul Doherty

2014 election result 20 September 2014 55.07 N/A N/A N/A 2.68 0.78 19.01 8.06 8.66
30 Jun 2017 –
Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138] 19 – 22 Aug 2017 42 24 22 10 1.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour
Māori
 Mana National NZ First Green ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 47.38 12.19 — 5.37 11.25 10.28 0.11 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 50.4 21.1 1.3 5.9 12 7.5 0.3 1.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Meka Whaitiri

Māori

Marama Fox

Green

Elizabeth Kerekere

Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 55 39 6

Te Tai Hauāuru

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour
Māori
 National Green NZ First Mana TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 42.23 17.64 7.11 11.93 11.79 6.82 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 41.8 24 11.2 9.1 11 1.3 1.3

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Adrian Rurawhe

Māori

Howie Tamati

Green

Jack McDonald

Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 39 52 9.1

Te Tai Tonga

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour National
Māori
 Green NZ First ACT TOP
2014 election result 20 September 2014 36.7 14.92 11.19 16.41 12.82 0.17 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 47.6 14.1 11.7 9.3 14.4 0.3 2.4

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Rino Tirikatene

Māori

Mei Reedy-Taare

 Green

Metiria Turei

Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 57.1 22.1 20.7

Hauraki-Waikato

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour NZ First
Māori
2014 election result 20 September 2014 46.50 13.37 11.97
Māori TV-Reid Research[140] 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 52.6 15.1 14.5

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Nanaia Mahuta

Māori

Rahui Papa

Mana

Susan Cullen

2014 election result 20 September 2014 59.54 21.96 15.22
Māori TV-Reid Research[140] 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 78 22 —

Tāmaki Makaurau

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour NZ First
Māori
 Green National
2014 election result 20 September 2014 40.45 13.98 12.72 11.69 7.55
Māori TV-Reid Research[141] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 47.0 12.6 14.5 11.3 12.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Peeni Henare

Māori

Shane Taurima

Green

Marama Davidson

Māori

Rangi McLean

2014 election result 20 September 2014 37.48 — 15.60 30.21
Māori TV-Reid Research[141] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 46.0 32.6 21.4 —

Te Tai Tokerau

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour NZ First
Māori
 Green National Mana
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.8 8.1 9.1 8.7 10.2 16.3
Māori TV-Reid Research[142] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 49.7 14.7 9.7 10.3 7.9 6.1

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] Labour

Kelvin Davis

Mana

Hone Harawira

Green

Godfrey Rudoplh

2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.90 40.53 —
Māori TV-Reid Research[142] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 67.4 30.3 2.3

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[143] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the

2014 election
, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party Newshub[144]
13–20 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		1 News[145]
15–19 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		Roy Morgan[146]
28 Aug–10 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		Radio NZ[147]
as of 21 Sep 2017 [final] 		NZ Herald[148]
as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] 		Stuff[149]
as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] 		Official result
National 56 58 50 55 56 (±2) 54 56
Labour 45 46 49 46 47 (±3) 46 46
NZ First 9 6 7 8 9 (±2) 7 9
Green 9 9 11 9 7 (±2) 10 8
ACT 1 1* 1 1 1 1 1
Māori Party
 2** 1 2 1 1 1 0
Seats in Parliament 122 121 120 120 120[nb 3] 120[nb 4] 120
Overall result (majority) National−NZ First (65) National−NZ First (64) Labour−Green−Māori (62) National–NZ First (63) National–NZ First (65) National–NZ First (61) National–NZ First (65)
Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green−NZ First (61) Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (62) Labour−Green–NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (63)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b c For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
  3. ^ The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
  4. ^ Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.[150][151]

See also

Notes

References

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