Predict (USAID)
Predict | |
---|---|
Project type | Epidemiological research |
Funding agency | United States Agency for International Development |
Objective | Early warning pandemic system |
Project coordinator | One Health Institute |
Partners | EcoHealth Alliance Metabiota Wildlife Conservation Society Smithsonian Institution |
Budget |
|
Duration | 2009 – 2020 |
Website | ohi |
Predict was an
Operations
Predict was launched in 2009 in response to the influenza A virus subtype H5N1 "bird flu" outbreak in 2005. It was designed and overseen by Dennis Carroll, then the director of the USAID emerging threats division,[2] with epidemiologist Jonna Mazet of the University of California, Davis, as its global director.[3] The program was one of four projects within USAID's Emerging Pandemic Threats program, the others being Respond, Identify, and Prevent.[4]
From 2009 to 2019, Predict collected more than 140,000 biological samples from various animals (potential
The approach of virus hunting by Predict and other agencies has been criticized as ineffective in comparison to human surveillance as a way to prevent pandemics. One virologist noted that cataloguing viruses was not enough, as spillover infections are often unexpected and difficult to predict. Also, viruses mutate quickly, making some die out while others can mutate to new hosts.[3]
Efforts by Predict resulted in the discovery of a new kind of Ebolavirus, Bombali ebolavirus.[6]
Predict partnered with EcoHealth Alliance for its work.[3]
Funding and closure
Predict operated on five-year funding cycles,
In February 2020, Senators
On April 1, 2020, following the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, USAID granted $2.26 million to the program for a six-month emergency extension;[5][8] the UC Davis announcement said that the extension would support "detection of SARS CoV-2 cases in Africa, Asia and the Middle East to inform the public health response" and investigation of "the animal source or sources of SARS CoV-2 using data and samples collected over the past 10 years in Asia and Southeast Asia".[8]
See also
- Disease X
- Cross-species transmission
- Zoonosis
- COVID-19 pandemic in the United States § Background and preparations
References
- ^ a b c Johnson, Jeanne (n.d.). "The Virus Hunters -- Tracking Down the Next HIV". Association of American Veterinary Medicine Colleges. Archived from the original on 2020-03-14. Retrieved 2020-03-16.
- ^ a b McNeil Jr., Donald G. (25 October 2019). "Scientists Were Hunting for the Next Ebola. Now the U.S. Has Cut Off Their Funding". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
- ^ a b c Morrison, Jim (25 January 2018). "Can Virus Hunters Stop the Next Pandemic Before It Happens?". Smithsonian. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
- ^ Predict , EcoHealth Alliance (last accessed April 7, 2020).
- ^ a b c d e f g Emily Baumgaertner & James Rainey, Trump administration ended coronavirus detection program, Los Angeles Times (April 2, 2020).
- ^ Cima, Greg (15 January 2020). "Pandemic prevention program ending after 10 years". JAVMA News. American Veterinary Medical Association. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
- ^ a b Schmidt, Charles (2020-04-03). "Why the Coronavirus Slipped Past Disease Detectives". Scientific American. Retrieved 2020-04-06.
- ^ a b c Zachary Cohen, Trump administration shuttered pandemic monitoring program, then scrambled to extend it, CNN (April 10, 2020).
- ^ "Letter from Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Angus S. King, Jr., to USAID Administrator Mark Green" (PDF). January 30, 2020.
Further reading
- Berger, Kevin (12 March 2020) (13 March 2020). "The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming". Nautil.us. Nautilus. Archived from the original on 2020-12-28. Retrieved 19 March 2020.
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