Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction
NPT party | No |
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Nuclear weapons |
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Background |
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The Kahuta Project started under the supervision of a coordination board that oversaw the activities of
Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971's Bangladesh Liberation War. Bhutto called a meeting of senior scientists and engineers on 20 January 1972.[18][19] Bhutto was the main architect of this programme, and it was here that Bhutto orchestrated the nuclear weapons programme and rallied Pakistan's academic scientists to build an atomic bomb in three years for national survival.[20]
At the meeting, Bhutto also appointed Munir Ahmad Khan as chairman of PAEC, who, until then, had been working as director at the
Finally, on 28 May 1998, a few weeks after India's second nuclear test (
History
After the
Initial non-weapon policy
On 8 December 1953, Pakistan media welcomed the US Atoms for Peace initiatives, followed by the establishment of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) in 1956.[25] In 1953, Foreign minister Muhammad Zafarullah Khan publicly stated that "Pakistan does not have a policy towards the atom bombs".[26] Following the announcement, on 11 August 1955, the United States and Pakistan reached an understanding concerning the peaceful and industrial use of nuclear energy which also included a pool-type reactor worth $350,000.[26] Before 1971, Pakistan's nuclear development was peaceful but an effective deterrent against India, as Benazir Bhutto maintained in 1995.[24] Pakistan's nuclear energy programme was established and started in 1956 following the establishment of PAEC. Pakistan became a participant in US President Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace program. PAEC's first chairman was Dr. Nazir Ahmad.[citation needed] Although proposals to develop nuclear weapons were made in the 1960s by several officials and senior scientists, Pakistan followed a strict non-nuclear weapon policy from 1956 until 1971, as PAEC under its chairman Ishrat Hussain Usmani made no efforts to acquire nuclear fuel cycle technology for the purposes of an active nuclear weapons programme.[26]
In 1961, the PAEC set up a Mineral Center at Lahore and a similar multidisciplinary Center was set up in Dhaka, in the then East Pakistan. With these two centres, the basic research work started.[citation needed]
The first thing that was to be undertaken was the search for uranium. This continued for about three years from 1960 to 1963. Uranium deposits were discovered and the first-ever national award was given to the PAEC. Mining of uranium began in the same year. Dr.
The next landmark under
In the
Understanding the sensitivity of the issue, Bhutto arranged a meeting with President Ayub Khan 11 December 1965 at
Pakistan's weaker
In 1969, after a long negotiation, the
The PAEC in 1970 began work on a pilot-scale plant at Dera Ghazi Khan for the concentration of uranium ores. The plant had a capacity of 10,000 pounds a day.[34] In 1989, Munir Ahmad Khan signed a nuclear cooperation deal and, since 2000, Pakistan has been developing a two-unit nuclear power plant with an agreement signed
Development of nuclear weapons
The
At the Multan meeting on 20 January 1972, Bhutto stated, "What
In December 1972, Dr.
Tedious mathematical work on
In 1974,
The TPG succeeded in the earlier implosion-type weapon design in 1977–78, with the first
In 1983, Khan was
On 11 March 1983, PAEC, led by Munir Ahmad Khan, carried out its first
Coordination between each site was overseen by the Directorate of Technical Development (DTD) under Dr. Zaman Sheikh (a
Dr.
In his semi-official works of the Pakistani nuclear program history, Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb, Major General Feroz Hassan Khan wrote that Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud visits to Pakistan's atomic facility were not a proof of the agreement between the two countries.[73] However, Feroz Hassan acknowledged in his own words, that "Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue.".[73]
Alleged Israeli interference
In 1981, three
Policy
Pakistan acceded to the
Pakistan is not known to have an offensive chemical weapons programme, and in 1993 Pakistan signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and has committed itself to refrain from developing, manufacturing, stockpiling, or using chemical weapons.[78]
Pakistan is not a party to the
Since the early 1980s, Pakistan's nuclear proliferation activities have not been without controversy. However, since the arrest of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the government has taken concrete steps to ensure that
Protections
In May 1999, during the anniversary of Pakistan's first nuclear weapons test, former
Modernisation and expansion
A Washington-based Nuclear Watch think tank of Boston University has reported that Pakistan is increasing its capacity to produce plutonium at its Khushab nuclear facility.[85] The sixth nuclear test (codename: Chagai-II) on 30 May 1998, at Kharan was quite a successful test of a sophisticated, compact, but "powerful plutonium bomb" designed to be carried by aircraft, vessels, and missiles. These are believed to be tritium-boosted weapons. Only a few grams of tritium can result in an increase of the explosive yield by 300% to 400%."[86] Citing new satellite images of the facility, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said the imagery suggests construction of the second Khushab reactor is "likely finished and that the roof beams are being placed on top of the third Khushab reactor hall".[87] A third and a fourth[88] reactor and ancillary buildings are observed to be under construction at the Khushab site.
In an opinion published in
As of 2014[update], Pakistan has been reportedly developing smaller, tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield.[91] This is consistent with earlier statements from a meeting of the National Command Authority (which directs nuclear policy and development) saying Pakistan is developing "a full-spectrum deterrence capability to deter all forms of aggression."[92]
Arms control proposals
Pakistan has over the years proposed a number of bilateral or regional non-proliferation steps and confidence building measures to India, including:[93]
- A joint Indo-Pakistan declaration renouncing the acquisition or manufacture of nuclear weapons, in 1978.[94]
- South Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, in 1978.[95]
- Mutual inspections by India and Pakistan of each other's nuclear facilities, in 1979.[96]
- Simultaneous adherence to the NPT by India and Pakistan, in 1979.[97]
- A bilateral or regional nuclear test-ban treaty, in 1987.[98]
- A South Asia Zero-Missile Zone, in 1994.[99]
India rejected all six proposals.[100][101]
However, India and Pakistan reached three bilateral agreements on nuclear issues. In 1989, they agreed not to attack each other's nuclear facilities.[102] Since then they have been regularly exchanging lists of nuclear facilities on 1 January of each year.[103] Another bilateral agreement was signed in March 2005 where both nations would alert the other on ballistic missile tests.[104] In June 2004, the two countries signed an agreement to set up and maintain a hotline to warn each other of any accident that could be mistaken for a nuclear attack. These were deemed essential risk reduction measures in view of the seemingly unending state of misgiving and tension between the two countries, and the extremely short response time available to them to any perceived attack. None of these agreements limits the nuclear weapons programs of either country in any way.[105]
Disarmament policy
Pakistan has blocked negotiation of a
In a recent statement at the Conference on Disarmament, Pakistan laid out its nuclear disarmament policy and what it sees as the proper goals and requirements for meaningful negotiations:
- A commitment by all states to complete verifiable nuclear disarmament;
- Eliminate the discrimination in the current non-proliferation regime;
- Normalize the relationship of the three ex-NPT nuclear weapon states with those who are NPTsignatories;
- Address new issues like access to weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors;
- Non-discriminatory rules ensuring every state's right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy;
- Universal, non-discriminatory and legally binding negative security assurances to non-nuclear weapon states;
- A need to address the issue of missiles, including development and deployment of Anti-ballistic missile systems;
- Strengthen existing international instruments to prevent the militarisation of outer space, including development of ASATs;
- Tackle the growth in armed forces and the accumulation and sophistication of conventional tactical weapons.
- Revitalise the UN disarmament machinery to address international security, disarmament and proliferation challenges.[citation needed]
Pakistan has repeatedly stressed at international fora like the Conference on Disarmament that it will give up its nuclear weapons only when other nuclear armed states do so, and when disarmament is universal and verifiable. It rejects any unilateral disarmament on its part.[108]
Infrastructure
Uranium
Pakistan's
The uranium program proved to be a difficult, challenging and most enduring approach to scale up to
Plutonium
In July 1976
PAEC continued its research on plutonium and built the 40–50 MW (megawatt, thermal)
PAEC also created a separated
In late 2006, the Institute for Science and International Security released intelligence reports and imagery showing the construction of a new plutonium reactor at the Khushab nuclear site. The reactor is deemed to be large enough to produce enough plutonium to facilitate the creation of as many as "40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year."[121][122][123] The New York Times carried the story with the insight that this would be Pakistan's third plutonium reactor,[124] signalling a shift to dual-stream development, with Plutonium-based devices supplementing the nation's existing HEU stream to atomic warheads. On 30 May 1998, Pakistan proved its plutonium capability in a scientific experiment and sixth nuclear test: codename Chagai-II.[115] There is controversy regarding environmental damage caused by the test, which dismissed by Balochistan media which worked with the government as misinformation, since the test were carried out hundred meters underground of Ras Koh hill and the explosions were not damaging any environment of the any areas in Pakistan or India.[125]
Stockpile
Estimates of Pakistan's stockpile of nuclear warheads vary. The most recent analysis, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 2010, estimates that Pakistan has 70–90 nuclear warheads.[126] In 2001, the US-based Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimated that Pakistan had built 24–48 HEU-based nuclear warheads with HEU reserves for 30–52 additional warheads.[127][128] In 2003, the US Navy Center for Contemporary Conflict estimated that Pakistan possessed between 35 and 95 nuclear warheads, with a median of 60.[129] In 2003, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimated a stockpile of approximately 50 weapons. By contrast, in 2000, US military and intelligence sources estimated that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal may be as large as 100 warheads.[130] In 2018, the Federation of American Scientists estimated that the arsenal was about 120-130 warheads.[131]
The actual size of Pakistan's nuclear stockpile is hard for experts to gauge owing to the extreme secrecy which surrounds the program in Pakistan. However, in 2007, retired Pakistan Army's Brigadier-General Feroz Khan, previously second in command at the Strategic Arms Division of Pakistans' Military told a Pakistani newspaper that Pakistan had "about 80 to 120 genuine warheads."[132][133]
Pakistan's first nuclear tests were made in May 1998, when six warheads were tested under codename
Second strike capability
According to a US congressional report, Pakistan has addressed issues of survivability in a possible nuclear conflict through second strike capability. Pakistan has been dealing with efforts to develop new weapons and at the same time, have a strategy for surviving a nuclear war. Pakistan has built hard and deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second strike capability in a nuclear war.[135] In January 2000, two years past after the atomic tests, US intelligence officials stated that previous intelligence estimates "overstated the capabilities of India's homegrown arsenal and understate those of Pakistan".[136] The United States Central Command commander, General Anthony Zinni[136] told the NBC that longtime assumptions, that "India had an edge in the South Asian strategic balance of power, were questionable at best. Don't assume that Pakistan's nuclear capability is inferior to the Indians", General Zinni quoted to NBC.[136]
It was confirmed that Pakistan has built Soviet-style road-mobile missiles, state-of-the-art air defences around strategic sites, and other concealment measures. In 1998, Pakistan had 'at least six secret locations' and since then it is believed Pakistan may have many more such secret sites. In 2008, the United States admitted that it did not know where all of Pakistan's nuclear sites are located. Pakistani defence officials have continued to rebuff and deflect American requests for more details about the location and security of the country's nuclear sites.[137]
Personnel
In 2010, Russian foreign ministry official Yuriy Korolev stated that there are somewhere between 120,000 and 130,000 people directly involved in Pakistan's nuclear and missile programs, a figure considered extremely large for a developing country.[138]
Alleged foreign co-operation
Historically, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has been repeatedly charged with allegedly transferring missile and related materials to Pakistan.
The former US officials have also disclosed that China had allegedly transferred technology to Pakistan and conducting
In 1986, it was reported that both countries have signed a mutual treaty of peaceful use of civil nuclear technology agreement in which China would supply Pakistan a civil-purpose nuclear power plant. A grand ceremony was held in Beijing where Pakistan's then-
In February 1990, President François Mitterrand of France visited Pakistan and announced that France had agreed to supply a 900 MWe commercial nuclear power plant to Pakistan. However, after the Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was dismissed in August 1990, the French nuclear power plant deal went into cold storage and the agreement could not be implemented due to financial constraints and the Pakistani government's apathy. Also in February 1990, Soviet Ambassador to Pakistan, V.P. Yakunin, said that the Soviet regime was considering a request from Pakistan for the supply of a nuclear power plant. The Soviet and French civilian nuclear power plant was on its way during the 1990s. However, Bob Oakley, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, expressed US displeasure at the recent agreement made between France and Pakistan for the sale of a nuclear power plant.[148] After the US concerns the civilian-nuclear technology agreements were cancelled by France and Soviet Union.
Declassified documents from 1982, released in 2012 under the US Freedom of Information Act, said that US intelligence detected that Pakistan was seeking suspicious procurements from Belgium, Finland, Japan, Sweden and Turkey.[149]
According to more recent reports, it has been alleged that North Korea had been secretly supplying Pakistan with ballistic missile technology in exchange for nuclear weapons technology.[150]
Doctrine
Pakistan refuses to adopt a "
Theory of deterrence
The theory of "N-deterrence" has been frequently being interpreted by the various government-in-time of effect of Pakistan. Although the nuclear deterrence theory was officially adopted in 1998 as part of Pakistan's defence theory,
American political scientist Vipin Narang, however, argues that Pakistan's asymmetric escalation posture, or the rapid first use of nuclear weapons against conventional attacks to deter their outbreak, increases instability in South Asia. Narang supports his arguments by noting to the fact that since India's assured retaliation nuclear posture has not deterred these provocations, Pakistan's passive nuclear posture has neutralised India's conventional options for now; limited retaliation would be militarily futile, and more significant conventional retaliation is simply off the table."[151]
The strategists in
Pakistan's motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons development program is never to allow another invasion of Pakistan.[157] President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq allegedly told the Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1987 that, "If your forces cross our borders by an inch, we are going to annihilate your cities."[158]
Pakistan has not signed the
The Congressional Research Service, in a report published on 23 July 2012, said that in addition to expanding its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan could broaden the circumstances under which it would be willing to use nuclear weapons.[159]
Nuclear Command and Control
The government institutional organisation authorised to make critical decisions about Pakistan's nuclear posturing is the
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee is the deputy chairman of the Development Control Committee (DCC), the body responsible for weapons development and oversight which includes the nation's military and scientific, but not its political, leadership.[162] Through DCC, the senior civilian scientists maintains a tight control of scientific and ethical research; the DCC exercises technical, financial and administrative control over all strategic organisations, including national laboratories and scientific research and development organisations associated with the development and modernisation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.[162] Functioning through the SPD, the DCC oversees the systematic progress of weapon systems to fulfil the force goals set by the committee.[162]
Under the Nuclear Command Authority, its secretariat, Strategic Plans Division (SPD), is responsible for the physical protection and to ensure security of all aspects of country's nuclear arsenals and maintains
US security assistance
From the end of 2001 the United States has provided material assistance to aid Pakistan in guarding its nuclear material, warheads and laboratories. The cost of the program has been almost $100 million. Specifically the United States has provided helicopters,
During this period Pakistan also began to develop a modern export control regulatory regime with US assistance. It supplements the US National Nuclear Security Administration Megaports program at Port Qasim, Karachi, which deployed radiation monitors and imaging equipment monitored by a Pakistani central alarm station.[167]
Pakistan turned down the offer of
Security concerns of the United States
Since 2004 the US government has reportedly been concerned about the safety of Pakistani nuclear facilities and weapons. Press reports have suggested that the United States has contingency plans to send in special forces to help "secure the Pakistani nuclear arsenal".[170][171] In 2007, Lisa Curtis of The Heritage Foundation, while giving testimony before the United States House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, concluded that "preventing Pakistan's nuclear weapons and technology from falling into the hands of terrorists should be a top priority for the US."[172] However Pakistan's government has ridiculed claims that the weapons are not secure.[170]
Diplomatic reports published in the
A report published by
A study by Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University titled 'Securing the Bomb 2010', found that Pakistan's stockpile "faces a greater threat from Islamic extremists seeking nuclear weapons than any other nuclear stockpile on earth".[176]
According to Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former investigator with the CIA and the US Department of Energy there is "a greater possibility of a nuclear meltdown in Pakistan than anywhere else in the world. The region has more violent extremists than any other, the country is unstable, and its arsenal of nuclear weapons is expanding."[177]
Nuclear weapons expert David Albright author of 'Peddling Peril' has also expressed concerns that Pakistan's stockpile may not be secure despite assurances by both the Pakistani and US governments. He stated Pakistan "has had many leaks from its program of classified information and sensitive nuclear equipment, and so you have to worry that it could be acquired in Pakistan," However the U.S. intelligence official said there is no indication that terrorists have gotten anything from Pakistan, and added there is confidence right now in Pakistan's security apparatus. The Pakistanis store their nuclear stockpile in a way that makes it difficult to put the pieces together; that is, components are located in different places. The official said Pakistan has put the appropriate safeguards in place. [178]
A 2010 study by the Congressional Research Service titled 'Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues' noted that even though Pakistan had taken several steps to enhance Nuclear security in recent years 'Instability in Pakistan has called the extent and durability of these reforms into question.'[179]
In April 2011, IAEA's deputy director general Denis Flory declared Pakistan's nuclear programme safe and secure.[180][181] According to the IAEA, Pakistan is currently contributing more than $1.16 million in IAEA's Nuclear Security Fund, making Pakistan the 10th largest contributor.[182]
In response to a November 2011 article in
Pakistan consistently maintains that it has tightened the security over the several years.
On 7 September 2013, the
National Security Council
- Economic Coordination Committee(ECC)
- Development Control Committee (DCC)
- Employment Control Committee (ECC)
- Financial Monitoring Unit (FMU)
Strategic combat commands
- Air Force Strategic Command (AFSC)
- Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC)
- Naval Strategic Forces Command (NSFC)
Weapons development agencies
National Engineering & Scientific Commission (NESCOM)
- National Development Complex(NDC), Islamabad
- Project Management Organization (PMO), Khanpur
- Air Weapon Complex(AWC), Hasanabdal
- National Centre for Physics (NCP), Islamabad
- Maritime Technologies Complex (MTC), Karachi
Ministry of Defense Production
- Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), Wah
- Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Kamra
- Defense Science and Technology Organization (DESTO), Chattar
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
- Directorate of Technical Development
- Directorate of Technical Equipment
- Directorate of Technical Procurement
- Directorate of Science & Engineering Services
Ministry of Industries & Production
- State Engineering Corporation (SEC)
- Heavy Mechanical Complex Ltd. (HMC)
- Pakistan Steel Mills Limited, Karachi.
- Pakistan Machine Tools Factory
Delivery systems
Land
As of 2011[update], Pakistan possesses a wide variety of nuclear-capable medium range ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2750 km.[186] Pakistan also possesses nuclear-tipped Babur cruise missiles with ranges up to 700 km. In April 2012, Pakistan launched a Hatf-4 Shaheen-1A, said to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead designed to evade missile-defense systems.[187] These land-based missiles are controlled by Army Strategic Forces Command of Pakistan Army.
Pakistan is also believed to be developing tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield with ranges up to 60 km such as the Nasr missile. According to Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, citing a Pakistani news article,[188] Pakistan is developing its own equivalent to the Davy Crockett launcher with a miniaturised warhead that may be similar to the W54.[189]
Air
The
A 2016 report by Hans M. Kristensen stated that "The F-16s were considered to be the first planes that are nuclear-capable in the Pakistan arsenal and the French Mirage III was upgraded as well to carry a new air launch cruise missile. But the United States made its case. What Pakistan does once they get the planes is inevitably up to them," he said. The report also stated that Pakistan is obliged under the terms of its contract to ask the US for permission before the fighters are converted. To date, the US has given only two countries (Pakistan and Israel) implicit permission to modify their F-16s to carry nuclear warheads.[193]
It has also been reported that an air-launched
Sea
The
On 9 January 2017, Pakistan conducted a successful launch of the Babur III missile from an underwater mobile platform. The Babur-III has a range of 450 km and can be used as a
With a stockpile of plutonium, Pakistan would be able to produce a variety of miniature nuclear warheads which would allow it to nuclear-tip the
Nuclear submarine
In response to INS Arihant, India's first nuclear submarine, the Pakistan Navy pushed forward a proposal to build its own nuclear submarine as a direct response to the Indian nuclear submarine program.[203][204] Many military experts believe that Pakistan has the capability of building a nuclear submarine and is ready to build such a fleet.[203] In February 2012, the Navy announced it would start work on the construction of a nuclear submarine to better meet the Indian Navy's nuclear threat.[205] According to the Navy, the nuclear submarine is an ambitious project, and will be designed and built indigenously. However, the Navy stressed that "the project completion and trials would take anywhere from between 5 to 8 years to build the nuclear submarine after which Pakistan would join the list of countries that has a nuclear submarine."[203][205]
See also
- Weapons of mass destruction
- Chronology of Pakistan's rocket tests
- List of missiles of Pakistan
- Nuclear power in Pakistan
- Pakistan Armed Forces
- Nuclear doctrine of Pakistan
- Nuclear Command Authority (Pakistan)
- Pakistani missile research and development program
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- Rais, Rasul Baksh (25 November 2008). "Debating first use". Daily Times. Archived from the original on 2013-06-20.
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External links
- Why He Went Nuclear by Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins
- Nuclear Files.org Pakistan's nuclear conflict with India- background and the current situation
- Defense Export Promotion Organization – Ministry of Defense
- Pakistani & Indian Missile Forces (Tarmuk missile mentioned here)
- Annotated bibliography on Pakistan's nuclear weapons from the Alsos Digital Library
- The Woodrow Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project The Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project contains a collection of primary source documents on Pakistani nuclear development.
- Robert Windrem (2013). "Pakistan's nuclear father, master spy". Wikidata Q95767347.
- Wikidata Q95770244.
- Project 706/726 Pakistani Nuclear Weapons Project (Complete History, Including Yield and Missile Data)
- Laser isotope separation research by Pakistan