Paleotempestology
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Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by American meteorologist Kerry Emanuel.
The usual approach in paleotempestology is the identification of deposits left by storms. Most commonly, these are
Paleotempestological research has shown that in the
Definition and rationale
Paleotempestology is the estimation of tropical cyclone activity with the help of
The realisation that one cannot rely solely on historical records to infer past storm activity was a major driving force for the development of paleotempestology.
Information about past tropical cyclone occurrences can be used to constrain how their occurrences may change in the future, or about how they respond to large-scale climate modes, such as
Techniques
In general, paleotempestology is a complex field of science that overlaps with other disciplines like
Overwash deposits
Several techniques have been applied to separate out storm overwash deposits from other sediments:
- Compared to the normal sedimentation processes in such places, tropical cyclone deposits are rougher and can be detected with sieving, laser-dependent technologies[19] or x-ray fluorescence techniques.[20]
- In sediment cores, deposits formed by tropical cyclones may be denser due to a larger proportion of mineral content associated with overwashes, which can be detected with x-ray fluorescence techniques.[21]
- They may contain less organic matter than deposits formed through steady sedimentation, which can be detected by combusting the deposits and measuring the resulting mass loss.[22] This and sediment grain sizes are the most common research tools for sediment cores.[19]
- A little used technique is the analysis of organic material in
- Overwash deposits can contain elements that do not normally occur at the site, such as strontium; this can be detected with x-ray fluorescence techniques.[20]
- Overwash deposits have usually brighter colors than those generated during steady sedimentation[3] and different quantities of coarse fragments.[25]
- Storm surges can transport living structures into such deposits that do not normally occur in these settings.
Generally, sites suitable for obtaining paleotempestology records are not found along the entire length of the coastline,[19] and depending on the properties of the site such as vegetation cover,[28] they might only track storms approaching from a certain direction.[17] Prerequisites for successful correlation of overwash deposits to tropical cyclones are:[29]
- The absence of tsunamis in the region, as their deposits can usually not be easily distinguished from storm deposits.[29]
- The investigation area should have low biological activity, as bioturbation can otherwise erase evidence of storm deposits. Low biological activity can be found in sites with high salt or low oxygen concentrations.[29]
- A high geomorphic stability of the site.[29]
- High sedimentation rates can facilitate the preservation of storm deposits.[29]
- Tides can destroy layered storm deposits; thus non-tidal waterbodies are ideally used. In tidally active waterbodies, correlations involving various sediment cores can be applied.[30]
Dating and intensity determination
Various dating techniques can then be used to produce a chronology of tropical cyclone strikes at a given location and thus a recurrence rate;[2][14] for example, at Lake Shelby in Alabama a return period of once every 318 years was determined. The storms in the Lake Shelby record have windspeeds of over 190 kilometres per hour (120 mph)[31] as Hurricane Ivan which in 2004 made landfall in the region at that intensity did not leave a deposit.[32] Based on geological considerations the minimum windspeed of storms recorded there might be 230 kilometres per hour (143 mph).[31]
For dating purposes
Beach ridges
Beach ridges and cheniers[2] form when storm surges, storm waves or tides deposit debris in ridges, with one ridge typically corresponding to one storm.[35] Ridges can be formed by coral rubble where coral reefs lie at the coast,[36] and can contain complicated layer structures,[37] shells,[38] pumice,[39] and gravel.[40] A known example is the ridge that Cyclone Bebe generated on Funafuti atoll in 1971.[41]
Beach ridges are common on the
Wind-driven erosion or accumulation can alter the elevation of such ridges, and, in addition, the same ridge can be formed by more than one storm event[47] as has been observed in Australia.[48] Beach ridges can also shift around through non-storm processes after their formation[44] and can form through non-tropical cyclone processes.[49] Sedimentary texture can be used to infer the origin of a ridge from storm surges.[50]
Isotope ratios
Precipitation in tropical cyclones has a characteristic
Speleothems, deposits formed in caves through the dissolution and redeposition of dolomite and limestone, can store isotope signatures associated with tropical cyclones, especially in fast growing speleothems, areas with thin soils and speleothems which have undergone little alteration. Such deposits have a high temporal resolution, and are also protected from many confounding factors[23] although the extraction of annual layers has become possible only recently, with a two-week resolution (two separate layers correlated to two hurricanes that struck two weeks apart) achieved in one case.[55] However, the suitability of speleothems depends on the characteristics of the cave they are found in; caves that flood frequently may have their speleothems eroded or otherwise damaged, for example, making them less suitable for paleotempestology research.[56] Caves where speleothems form mainly during the offseason are also likely to miss tropical cyclones.[57] Very old records can be obtained from oxygen isotope ratios in rocks.[58]
Other techniques
Historical documents such as county gazettes in China, diaries, logbooks of travellers, official histories and old newspapers can contain information on tropical cyclones.[59] In China such records go back over a millennium,[3] while elsewhere it is usually confined to the last 130 years.[60] Such historical records however are often ambiguous or unclear,[1] they only record landfalling storms and sometimes confuse non-tropical systems or intense convective storms for tropical cyclones.[61] The frequency of shipwrecks has been used to infer past tropical cyclone occurrence,[17] such as has been done with a database of shipwrecks that the Spaniards suffered in the Caribbean.[62]
Aside from oxygen isotope ratios,
Other techniques:
- Rhythmites in river mouths.[2] These are formed when storms resuspend sediments; the sediments when the storm wanes fall out and form the deposits, especially in places with high sediment supplies. Carbon isotope and chemical data can be used to distinguish them from non-storm sedimentation.[68]
- Sand dunes at coastlines is influenced by storm surge height,[69] and sand splays can be formed when sand is swept off these dunes by storm surges and waves;[49] such deposits however are better studied in the context of tsunamis and there is no clear way to distinguish between tsunami- and storm-formed splays.[70]
- Hummocky deposits in shallow seas,[2] known as tempestites.[71] The mechanics of their formation are still controversial,[72] and such deposits are prone to reworking which wipes out the traces of a storm.[13]
- Boulders[73] and coral blocks can be moved by storms and such moved blocks can potentially be dated to obtain the age of the storm, if certain conditions are met.[74] They can be correlated to storms with the help of oxygen isotope excursions for example.[75] This technique has also been applied to islands formed by storm-moved blocks.[76]
- Wave-driven erosion during storms can create scarps[77] which can be dated with the assistance of optically-stimulated luminescence.[78] Such scarps however tend to be altered over time – later storms can erode away older scarps, for example – and their preservation and formation is often strongly dependent on the local geology.[79]
- Other techniques involve the identification of
- Luminescence of coral deposits has been used to infer tropical cyclone activity.[75]
- Tridacna shells record trace elements on daily or hourly basis, as well as growth impairments caused by tropical cyclones.[83]
Timespans
A database of tropical cyclones going back to 6,000 BC has been compiled for the western
Results
Paleotempestological information has been used by the
Recurrence rates
The
However, it has also been found that the occurrence rates of tropical cyclone measured with instrumental data over historical time can be significantly different from the actual occurrent rate. In the past, tropical cyclones were far more frequent in the Great Barrier Reef[42] and the northern Gulf of Mexico than today;[102] in Apalachee Bay, strong storms occur every 40 years, not every 400 years as documented historically.[103] Serious storms in New York occurred twice in 300 years[104] not once every millennium or less.[105] In general, the area of Australia appears to be unusually inactive in recent times by the standards of the past 550–1500 years,[106] and the historical record underestimates the incidence of strong storms in Northeastern Australia.[107]
Long term fluctuations
Long-term variations of tropical cyclone activity have also been found. The Gulf of Mexico saw increased activity between 3,800 and 1,000 years ago with a fivefold increase of category 4–5 hurricane activity,
In the Atlantic Ocean, the so-called "
Role of climate modes
The influence of natural trends on tropical cyclone activity has been recognized in paleotempestology records, such as a correlation between
Among the known climate modes that influence tropical cyclone activity in paleotempestological records are
Influence of long-term temperature variations
The effect of general climate variations have also been found. Hurricane
The
The response of tropical cyclones to future global warming is of great interest. The
After-effects of tropical cyclones
A correlation between hurricane strikes and subsequent
On the other hand, the Classic Maya collapse may or may not coincide with, and have been caused by, a decrease in tropical cyclone activity.[166][167] Tropical cyclones are important for preventing droughts in the southeastern US.[168] Paleotempestology has found evidence that the Kamikaze typhoons that impeded the Mongol invasions of Japan did, in fact, exist.[169]
Other patterns
Sites in the Bahamas show more strong storms in the northern Bahamas than the southern ones, presumably because storms approaching the southern Bahamas have passed over the Greater Antilles before and have lost much of their intensity there.[170] Atmospheric conditions favourable for tropical cyclone activity in the "main development region"[b] of the Atlantic are correlated to unfavourable conditions along the East Coast.[172] The anti-correlation between Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas activity with the US East Coast activity may be due to active hurricane seasons - which tend to increase storm activity in the former - being accompanied by unfavourable climatological conditions along the East Coast.[173]
Problems
Paleotempestological reconstructions are subject to a number of limitations,[24] including the presence of sites suited for the obtainment of paleotempestological records,[19] changes in the hydrological properties of the site due to e.g. sea level rise[24] which increases the sensitivity to weaker storms[174] and "false positives" caused by for example non-tropical cyclone-related floods, sediment winnowing, wind-driven transport, tides, tsunamis,[24] bioturbation[17] and non-tropical storms such as nor'easters[175] or winter storm, the latter of which however usually result in lower surges.[176] In particular, tsunamis are a problem for paleotempestological studies in the Indian and Pacific Ocean;[177] one technique that has been used to differentiate the two is the identification of traces of runoff which occurs during storms but not during tsunamis.[178] Coastal paleotempestology records are based on storm surge, and do not always reflect wind speeds,[179] e.g in large and slow-moving storms.[180]
Not all of the world has been investigated with paleotempestological methods; among the places thus researched are Belize, the
Paleotempestology records mostly record activity during the Holocene[181] and tend to record mainly catastrophic storms as these are the ones most likely to leave evidence.[6] In addition, as of 2017[update] there has been little effort in making comprehensive databases of paleotempestological data or in attempting regional reconstructions from local results.[182] Different sites have different intensity thresholds and thus capture different storm populations,[151] and the same layer can be caused by a landfall of a weaker storm closer to the site or a landfall at a larger distance of a stronger storm.[183]
Also, paleotempestological records, especially overwash records in marshes, are often grossly incomplete with questionable geochronology. Deposition mechanism are poorly documented, and it is often not clear how to identify storm deposits.[184] The magnitude of overwash deposits is fundamentally a function of storm surge height, which, however, is not a function of storm intensity.[74] Overwash deposits are regulated by the height of the overwashed barrier and there is no expectation that it will remain stable over time;[185] tropical cyclones themselves have been observed eroding such barriers[186] and such barrier height decreases (e.g. through storm erosion or sea level rise) may induce a spurious increase of tropical cyclone deposits over time.[187] Successive overwash deposits can be difficult to distinguish, and they are easily eroded by subsequent storms.[188] Storm deposits can vary strongly even a short distance from the landfall point,[189] even over few tens of metres,[190] and changes in tropical cyclone activity recorded at one site might simply reflect the stochastic nature of tropical cyclone landfalls.[172] In particular, in core tropical cyclone activity regions weather variations rather than large-scale modes may control tropical cyclone activity.[191]
Application to non-tropical storms
Paleotempestological research has been mostly carried out in low-latitude regions
Storm records indicate increased storm activity during colder periods such as the Little Ice Age,
Examples
See also
Notes
References
Citations
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Further reading
- Elsner, James B.; Kara, A. Birol (1999). Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 49–51, 378. ISBN 978-0-19-512508-5.
- Huang, Yun (2009-01-01). "Sediment records of modern and prehistoric hurricane strikes in Weeks Bay, Alabama". LSU Master's Theses. S2CID 135330841.
- Kar, Devyani (2010-01-01). "Integration of paleotempestology with coastal risk and vulnerability assessment: case studies from the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua". LSU Doctoral Dissertations. S2CID 134409924.
- Knowles, Jason (2004-01-01). "Coastal lake-sediment records of prehistoric hurricane strikes in Honduras and Turks and Caicos Islands of the Caribbean basin". LSU Master's Theses. S2CID 134921929.
- Liu, Kam-biu (2004). "Paleotempestology: Principles, Methods, and Examples from Gulf Coast Lake Sediments". In Murnane, R. J.; Liu, Kam-biu (eds.). Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. New York: Columbia University Press. pp. 13–57. ISBN 978-0-231-12388-4.
- Liu, Kam-biu (2007). "Paleotempestology". In Elias, Scott A. (ed.). Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science. Vol. 3. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 1978–1986. ISBN 978-0-444-51922-1.
- Nott, Jonathan (2004). "Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment". Environment International. 30 (3): 433–447. PMID 14987874.
- Revkin, Andrew C. (July 24, 2001). "Experts Unearth a Stormy Past". The New York Times.