Pandemic severity index
Influenza (flu) |
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The pandemic severity index (PSI) was a proposed classification scale for reporting the severity of
Development
The PSI was developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as a new pandemic influenza planning tool for use by states, communities, businesses and schools, as part of a drive to provide more specific community-level prevention measures.[5] Although designed for domestic implementation, the HHS has not ruled out sharing the index and guidelines with interested international parties.[6]
The index and guidelines were developed by applying principles of
We also realize as we look back through history is what cities did – 44 cities did, is that many of these measures ultimately every city adopted at some point or another, and the difference may be in the timing of using these measures and whether they're coordinated in an effective way for us to really gain the benefits of them.
— Martin Cetron, Director of CDC'sDivision of Global Migration and Quarantine[8]
Context
During the onset of a growing pandemic, local communities cannot rely upon widespread availability of
Guidelines
The index focuses less on how likely a disease will spread worldwide – that is, become a pandemic – and more upon how severe the epidemic actually is.[8] The main criterion used to measure pandemic severity will be
The analogy of "category" levels were introduced to provide an understandable connection to hurricane classification schemes, with specific reference to the recent aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.[5][8] Like the
Category | Case fatality rate |
Example(s) |
---|---|---|
1 | Less than 0.1% | Seasonal flu and 2009 swine flu[10] |
2 | 0.1–0.5% | Asian flu and Hong Kong flu |
3 | 0.5–1.0% | |
4 | 1.0–2.0% | |
5 | 2.0% or higher | 1918 influenza pandemic |
The report recommends four primary social distancing measures for slowing down a pandemic:
- Isolation and treatment of people who have suspected or confirmed cases of pandemic influenza
- Voluntary home quarantine of household contacts of those with suspected or confirmed pandemic influenza
- Dismissing school classes and closing daycare centers
- Changing work schedules and canceling large public gatherings[1]
These actions, when implemented, can have an overall effect of reducing the number of new cases of the disease; but they can carry potentially adverse consequences in terms of community and social disruption.[5] The measures should have the most noticeable impact if implemented uniformly by organizations and governments across the US.[5][6][7]
Response
While unveiling the PSI, Dr. Martin Cetron, Director for the
The University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) reports that the PSI has been "drawing generally high marks from public health officials and others, but they say the plan spells a massive workload for local planners". One MD praised that the PSI were "a big improvement over the previous guidance"; while historical influenza expert and author John M. Barry was more critical of the PSI, saying not enough emphasis was placed on basic health principles that could have an impact at the community level, adding "I'd feel a lot more comfortable with a lot more research [supporting them]".[7]
During the initial press releases in 2007, the CDC acknowledge that the PSI and the accompanying guidelines were a work in progress and will likely undergo revision in the months following their release.[5]
In 2014, after the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the PSI was replaced by the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework,[4] which uses quadrants based on transmissibility and clinical severity rather than a linear scale.
See also
- Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework
- 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
- Early Warning and Response System
- WHO pandemic phases
References
- ^ Centers for Disease Control,
- ^ Gardner, Amanda (February 1, 2007). "U.S. Health Officials Unveil Flu Pandemic Plan". Washington Post. Retrieved August 21, 2007.
U.S. health officials on Thursday outlined an early-warning system similar to that employed for hurricanes to protect and mobilize the country against a flu pandemic.
- ^ CIDRAPNews. Retrieved August 11, 2007.
- ^ PMID 25254666. Retrieved May 10, 2020.
This report provides an update to the 2008 framework to reflect experiences with 2009 H1N1 and recent responses to localized outbreaks of novel influenza A viruses. The revised framework also incorporates the recently developed Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) (12) and Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework (PSAF) (13)...PSAF replaces the Pandemic Severity Index as a severity assessment tool (13).
- ^ a b c d e f "HHS unveils two new efforts to advance pandemic flu preparedness" (Press release). Office of Enterprise Communication, Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. February 1, 2007. Retrieved August 11, 2007.
- ^ a b c Pellerin, Cheryl (12 February 2007). "Simple Planning Tools Can Help in Early Days of Pandemic". USINFO. Archived from the original on 28 November 2010.
- ^ CIDRAPNews. Retrieved August 11, 2007.
- ^ a b c d "Update of Pandemic Flu Preparedness" (Press release). Office of Enterprise Communication, Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control. February 1, 2007. Retrieved August 11, 2007.
- ^ Manning, Anita (February 2, 2007). "Government issues pandemic flu plans". USA Today.
- ^ "Keep Calm and Get Vaccinated" (PDF). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2014. Retrieved March 22, 2020.
Approximately 60.8 million cases and 12,469 deaths occurred in the United States due to the 2009 A/H1N1 Pandemic. According to PSI, which category would this pandemic be classified as? Answer: Category 1.