Peter Turchin

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Peter Turchin
Portrait of Peter Turchin
Born (1957-05-22) 22 May 1957 (age 66)
NationalityAmerican
Known forContributions to macrohistory and historical dynamics (cliodynamics)
Academic background
Alma materNew York University, Duke University
ThesisThe effect of host-plant dispersion on movement of Mexican bean beetles (Epilachna varivestis) (1985)
Academic work
DisciplineCliodynamics (historical dynamics), mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, construction and analysis of historical databases
InstitutionsUniversity of Connecticut, Evolution Institute, Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Websitewww.peterturchin.com

Peter Valentinovich Turchin (

statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.[2]

Peter Turchin, Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut in the departments of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Anthropology, and Mathematics, is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna and a research associate at the School of Anthropology of the University of Oxford. He was Editor-in-Chief and remains member of the editorial board at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. Turchin is a founding director of the Seshat: Global History Databank. He was a director of the Evolution Institute. In 2021 he was elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.[3]

Early life and education

Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in

Career

Clio—detail from The Allegory of Painting by Johannes Vermeer

Throughout his career Turchin has made contributions to various fields, such as

asabiyya as "collective solidarity".[6][7]

One of Turchin's most prominent fields of research is his study of the

Tang China, and the Roman Empire. Their empirical results have supported the population-warfare theory: Turchin and Korotayev have found that there is a tendency for population numbers and internal warfare intensity to oscillate with the same period but shifted in phase (with warfare peaks following population peaks). Furthermore, they have demonstrated that the rates of change of the two variables behave precisely as predicted by the theory: population rate of change is negatively affected by warfare intensity, while warfare rate of change is positively affected by population density.[5]

In 2010 Turchin published research using 40 combined social indicators to predict that there would be worldwide social unrest in the 2020s.

Jack Goldstone predicted that political and civic unrest in the United States would continue regardless of the party in power until a leader took action to reduce inequality and improve the social indicators that are tracked in their research.[11]

Works

Turchin has published over 200 scientific articles (including more than a dozen in Nature, Science, or PNAS) and at least eight books. He is the founder of the journal, Cliodynamics, "...dedicated to 'the search for general principles explaining the functioning and dynamics of historical societies'",[2] and manages a blog, Cliodynamica.[12]

Books

Selected journal articles

See also

References

  1. ^ Lloyd, Will (2023-06-15). "Is Another American Revolution Inevitable?". New Statesman. Retrieved 2023-07-19.
  2. ^ a b c Wood, Graeme (December 2020). "The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse". The Atlantic. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  3. ^ About, peterturchin.com (per 20. January 2024)
  4. S2CID 73597670
    .
  5. ^ a b c Turchin P. and Korotayev A. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147; Turchin P. and Nefedov S. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton University Press.
  6. ^ Turchin, P. (2003), Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, Princeton University Press.
  7. .
  8. .
  9. ^ "Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?". Live Science. 3 August 2012.
  10. ^ "Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says". UConn Today. 2016-12-27. Retrieved 2019-07-17.
  11. ^ Turchin, Peter; Goldstone, Jack (10 September 2020). "Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties'". NOEMA. Retrieved 19 October 2020.
  12. ^ "Cliodynamica: A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations". Cliodynamica. 24 October 2016. Retrieved 18 January 2021.

Further reading

External links