Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin | |
---|---|
Born | |
Nationality | American |
Known for | Contributions to macrohistory and historical dynamics (cliodynamics) |
Academic background | |
Alma mater | New York University, Duke University |
Thesis | The effect of host-plant dispersion on movement of Mexican bean beetles (Epilachna varivestis) (1985) |
Academic work | |
Discipline | Cliodynamics (historical dynamics), mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, construction and analysis of historical databases |
Institutions | University of Connecticut, Evolution Institute, Complexity Science Hub Vienna |
Website | www |
Peter Valentinovich Turchin (
Peter Turchin, Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut in the departments of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Anthropology, and Mathematics, is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna and a research associate at the School of Anthropology of the University of Oxford. He was Editor-in-Chief and remains member of the editorial board at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. Turchin is a founding director of the Seshat: Global History Databank. He was a director of the Evolution Institute. In 2021 he was elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.[3]
Early life and education
Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in
Career
Throughout his career Turchin has made contributions to various fields, such as
One of Turchin's most prominent fields of research is his study of the
In 2010 Turchin published research using 40 combined social indicators to predict that there would be worldwide social unrest in the 2020s.
Works
Turchin has published over 200 scientific articles (including more than a dozen in Nature, Science, or PNAS) and at least eight books. He is the founder of the journal, Cliodynamics, "...dedicated to 'the search for general principles explaining the functioning and dynamics of historical societies'",[2] and manages a blog, Cliodynamica.[12]
Books
- Turchin, Peter (2023). End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. ISBN 978-0241553480.
- Turchin, Peter; Hoyer, Daniel (2020). Figuring Out the Past; The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History. ISBN 9781541762688.)
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: date and year (link - Turchin, Peter (2016). Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. Beresta Books. ISBN 978-0996139540.
- Turchin, P. (2016), Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth, Beresta Books, ISBN 978-0996139519.
- Turchin, Peter; Nefedov, Sergey A. (2009). Secular Cycles. ISBN 978-0691136967.
- Turchin, Peter (2007). War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires. ISBN 978-0452288195.
- Turchin, Peter (2003). Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. ISBN 978-0691116693.
- Turchin, Peter (2003). Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. ISBN 978-0691090214.
- Turchin, Peter (1998). Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants. ISBN 978-0878938476.
Selected journal articles
- Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank. Religion, Brain & Behavior, 2023, 13(2), 167-194.
- Whitehouse, H.; François, P.; Savage, P.; Currie, T.; Feeney, K.; Cioni, E.; Purcell, R.; Ross, R.; Larson, J.; Baines, J.; Ter Haar, B.; Covey, A.; Turchin, P. (2019). "Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history". Nature. 568 (7751): 226–229. )
- Turchin, P.; Currie, T.E.; Turner, E.A.; Gavrilets, S. (2013). "War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies". Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 110 (41): 16384–9. PMID 24062433.
- Turchin, P.; Scheidel, W. (2009), "Coin Hoards Speak of Population Declines in Ancient Rome", PNAS, 106 (4): 17276–17279, PMID 19805043
- Turchin, P. (2009), "Long-term population cycles in human societies" (PDF), in Ostfeld, R. S.; Schlesinger, W. H. (eds.), The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology, 2009, pp. 1–17, archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-21, retrieved 2009-08-26
- Turchin P. (2006). Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147 (with Andrey Korotayev).
- Burtsev, M.; Turchin, P. (2006), "Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles", Nature, 440 (7087): 1041–1044, S2CID 4340926
- Turchin, P.; Oksanen, L.; Ekerholm, P.; Oksanen, T. & Henttonen, H. (2000), "Are lemmings prey or predators?", Nature, 405 (6786): 562–565, S2CID 1945851
- Turchin, P.; Taylor, A. D. & Reeve, J. D. (1999), "Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test", Science, 285 (5430): 1068–1071, PMID 10446053
See also
References
- ^ Lloyd, Will (2023-06-15). "Is Another American Revolution Inevitable?". New Statesman. Retrieved 2023-07-19.
- ^ a b c Wood, Graeme (December 2020). "The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse". The Atlantic. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
- ^ About, peterturchin.com (per 20. January 2024)
- S2CID 73597670.
- ^ a b c Turchin P. and Korotayev A. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147; Turchin P. and Nefedov S. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton University Press.
- ^ Turchin, P. (2003), Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, Princeton University Press.
- ISBN 5-484-00560-4.
- PMID 20130632.
- ^ "Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?". Live Science. 3 August 2012.
- ^ "Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says". UConn Today. 2016-12-27. Retrieved 2019-07-17.
- ^ Turchin, Peter; Goldstone, Jack (10 September 2020). "Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties'". NOEMA. Retrieved 19 October 2020.
- ^ "Cliodynamica: A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations". Cliodynamica. 24 October 2016. Retrieved 18 January 2021.
Further reading
- Aldhous, Peter (October 24, 2020). "This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence — Whatever Happens On Election Day". BuzzFeed. Retrieved 22 November 2020. Article on work by Goldstone and Turchin.
- Goldstone, Jack A.; Turchin, Peter (September 10, 2020). "Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties'". Noema Magazine. Berggruen Institute. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
- Goldstone, Jack A. (2016) [1991]. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World: Population Change and State Breakdown in England, France, Turkey, and China,1600-1850 (25th Anniversary ed.). Routledge. ISBN 9781315408606. Retrieved 22 November 2020. Turchin adopted and expanded Goldstone's model to apply to modern industrial states. They later became collaborators.
- political power; spending on politics soared." (p. 22.) "[N]o democracy can function well if people are unwilling to lose power – if a generation of leaders... becomes so entrenched that it ages into gerontocracy; if one of two major parties denies the arithmetic of elections; if a cohort of the ruling class loses status that it once enjoyed and sets out to salvage it." (p. 23.)
External links
- Cliodynamica A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations @PeterTurchin.com
- Bob Holmes (2012-08-23). "Calculated violence: Numbers that predict revolutions". New Scientist.
- Maini, Alessandro. "On Historical Dynamics by P. Turchin". Biophysical Economics and Sustainability 5, No. 1 (4 February 2020): 3. DOI: 10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x.