Plant disease forecasting
Plant disease forecasting is a management system used to predict the occurrence or change in severity of
Forecasting systems are based on assumptions about the pathogen's interactions with the host and environment, the disease triangle.[1] The objective is to accurately predict when the three factors – host, environment, and pathogen – all interact in such a fashion that disease can occur and cause economic losses.
In most cases the host can be suitably defined as
Good disease forecasting systems must be reliable, simple, cost-effective and applicable to many diseases. As such they are normally only designed for diseases that are irregular enough to warrant a prediction system, rather than diseases that occur every year for which regular treatment should be employed.[2] Forecasting systems can only be designed if there is also an understanding on the actual disease triangle parameters.
Features
Models may predict
Model quality has benefited both from improvements in the technology being supplied from the computer industry, and from improvements in statistical techniques.[3]
Examples of disease forecasting systems
Forecasting systems may use one of several parameters in order to work out disease risk, or a combination of factors.
Plant disease forecasting models must be thoroughly tested and validated after being developed. Interest has arisen lately in
Future developments
In the future, disease forecasting systems may become more useful as computing power increases and the amount of data that is available to plant pathologists to construct models increases. Good forecasting systems also may become increasingly important with climate change. It will be important to be able to accurately predict where disease outbreaks may occur, since they may not be in the historically known areas.
References
- ISBN 978-0-12-044565-3.
- ISBN 0-471-83236-7.
- ^ ISSN 0066-4286.
- ^ doi:10.1094/PHI-A-2008-01. Archived from the originalon 2008-04-11.
- ^ "APS Education Centre - Stewart's wilt of corn". Archived from the original on 2008-05-16. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
- .
- ISBN 978-0-89054-354-2.