Mid-20th century baby boom
The middle of the 20th century was marked by a significant and persistent increase in fertility rates in many countries of the world, especially in the Western world. The term baby boom is often used to refer to this particular boom, generally considered to have started immediately after World War II, although some demographers place it earlier or during the war.[citation needed] This terminology led to those born during this baby boom being nicknamed the baby boomer generation.
The boom coincided with a marriage boom.[3] The increase in fertility was driven primarily by a decrease in childlessness and an increase in parity progression to a second child. In most of the Western countries, progression to a third child and beyond declined, which, coupled with aforementioned increase in transition to first and second child, resulted in higher homogeneity in family sizes. The baby boom was most prominent among educated and economically active women.[4][5]
The baby boom ended with a significant decline in fertility rates in the 1960s and 1970s, later called the baby bust by demographers.[6]
Causes
Economist and demographer Richard Easterlin in his "Twentieth Century American Population Growth" (2000), explains the growth pattern of the American population in the 20th century by examining the fertility rate fluctuations and the decreasing mortality rate. Easterlin attempts to prove the cause of the baby boom and baby bust by the "relative income" theory, despite the various other theories that these events have been attributed to. The "relative income" theory suggests that couples choose to have children based on a couple's ratio of potential earning power and the desire to obtain material objects. This ratio depends on the economic stability of the country and how people are raised to value material objects. The "relative income" theory explains the baby boom by suggesting that the late 1940s and the 1950s brought low desires to have material objects, because of the Great Depression and World War II, as well as plentiful job opportunities (being a post-war period). These two factors gave rise to a high relative income, which encouraged high fertility. Following this period, the next generation had a greater desire for material objects, however, an economic slowdown in the United States made jobs harder to acquire. This resulted in lower fertility rates causing the Baby Bust.[7]
Jan Van Bavel and David S. Reher proposed that the increase in nuptiality (marriage boom) coupled with low efficiency of contraception was the main cause of the baby boom. They doubted the explanations (including the Easterlin hypothesis) which considered the post-war economic prosperity that followed deprivation of the Great Depression as main cause of the baby boom, stressing that GDP-birth rate association was not consistent (positive before 1945 and negative after) with GDP growth accounting for a mere 5 percent of the variance in the crude birth rate over the period studied by the authors.[8] Data shows that only in a few countries was there a significant and persistent increase in the marital fertility index during the baby boom, which suggests that most of the increase in fertility was driven by the increase in marriage rates.[9]
Jona Schellekens claims that the rise in male earnings that started in the late 1930s accounts for most of the rise in marriage rates and that Richard Easterlin's hypothesis according to which a relatively small birth cohort entering the labor market caused the marriage boom is not consistent with data from the United States.[10]
Matthias Doepke, Moshe Hazan, and Yishay Maoz all argued that the baby boom was mainly caused by the alleged crowding out from the labor force of females who reached adulthood during the 1950s by females who started to work during the
Greenwood, Seshadri, and Vandenbroucke ascribe the baby boom to the diffusion of new household appliances that led to reduction of costs of childbearing.[14] However Martha J. Bailey and William J. Collins criticize their explanation on the basis that improvement of household technology began before baby boom, differences and changes in ownership of appliances and electrification in U.S. counties are negatively correlated with birth rates during baby boom, that the correlation between cohort fertility of the relevant women and access to electrical service in early adulthood is negative, and that Amish also experienced the baby boom.[15]
Judith Blake and Prithwis Das Gupta point out the increase in ideal family size in the times of baby boom.[16]
Peter Lindert partially attribute the baby boom to the extension of income tax coverage on most of the US population in the early 1940s. The latter actualize already existed[vague] and newly created tax exemptions for children and married couples creating the new incentive for earlier marriage and higher fertility.[17] It is proposed that because the taxation was progressive the baby boom was more pronounced among the richer population.[18]
By region
North America
In the United States and Canada, the baby boom was among the largest in the world.
The baby boom was stronger among American Catholics than among Protestants.[22]
The exact beginning and end of the baby boom is debated. The U.S. Census Bureau defines baby boomers as those born between mid-1946 and mid-1964,
In the United States, more babies were born during the seven years after 1948 than in the previous thirty, causing a shortage of teenage
Europe
France and Austria experienced the strongest baby booms in Europe.[19] In contrast to most other countries, the French and Austrian baby booms were driven primarily by an increase in marital fertility.[28] In the French case, pronatalist policies were an important factor in this increase.[29] Weaker baby booms occurred in Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands.[30]
In the United Kingdom the baby boom occurred in two waves. After a short first wave of the baby boom during the war and immediately after, peaking in 1946, the United Kingdom experienced a second wave during the 1960s, with a peak in births in 1964 and a rapid fall after the Abortion Act 1967 came into force.[31]
The baby boom in Ireland began during
The baby boom was very strong in Norway and Iceland, significant in Finland, moderate in Sweden and relatively weak in Denmark.[19]
Baby boom was absent or not very strong in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain.[19] There were however regional variations in Spain, with a considerable baby boom occurring in regions such as Catalonia.[34]
There was a strong baby boom in Czechoslovakia, but it was weak or absent in Poland, Bulgaria, Russia, Estonia and Lithuania, partly as a result of the Soviet famine of 1946–1947.[19][35]
Oceania
The volume of baby boom was the largest in the world in New Zealand and second-largest in Australia.[19] Like the US, the New Zealand baby boom was stronger among Catholics than Protestants.[36]
The author and columnist Bernard Salt places the Australian baby boom between 1946 and 1961.[37][38]
Asia and Africa
Along with the developed countries of the West, many developing countries (among them Morocco, China and Turkey) also witnessed the baby boom.[39] The baby boom in Mongolia, one of such developing countries, is probably explained by improvement in health and living standards related to the adoption of technologies and modernisation.[40]
Latin America
There was also a baby boom in Latin American countries, excepting Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. An increase in fertility was driven by a decrease in childlessness and, in most nations, by an increase in parity progression to second, third and fourth births. Its magnitude was largest in Costa Rica and Panama.[41]
See also
- 1970s energy crisis
- Aging in the American workforce
- Counterculture of the 1960s
- History of the United States (1945–1964)
- Post-war displacement of Keynesianism
- Post–World War II economic expansion
Bibliography
- Barkan, Elliott Robert. From All Points: America's Immigrant West, 1870s–1952, (2007) 598 pages
- Barrett, Richard E., Donald J. Bogue, and Douglas L. Anderton. The Population of the United States 3rd Edition (1997) compendium of data
- Carter, Susan B., Scott Sigmund Gartner, Michael R. Haines, and Alan L. Olmstead, eds. The Historical Statistics of the United States (Cambridge UP: 6 vol; 2006) vol 1 on population; available online; massive data compendium; online version in Excel
- Chadwick Bruce A. and Tim B. Heaton, eds. Statistical Handbook on the American Family. (1992)
- Easterlin, Richard A. The American Baby Boom in Historical Perspective, (1962), the single most influential study complete text online[permanent dead link]
- Easterlin, Richard A. Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare (1987), by leading economist excerpt and text search
- Gillon, Steve. Boomer Nation: The Largest and Richest Generation Ever, and How It Changed America (2004), by leading historian. excerpt and text search
- Hawes Joseph M. and Elizabeth I. Nybakken, eds. American Families: a Research Guide and Historical Handbook. (Greenwood Press, 1991)
- Klein, Herbert S. A Population History of the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2004. 316 pp
- Macunovich, Diane J. Birth Quake: The Baby Boom and Its Aftershocks (2002) excerpt and text search
- Mintz Steven and Susan Kellogg. Domestic Revolutions: a Social History of American Family Life. (1988)
- Wells, Robert V. Uncle Sam's Family (1985), general demographic history
- Weiss, Jessica. To Have and to Hold: Marriage, the Baby Boom, and Social Change (2000) excerpt and text search
References
- ^ Pre-2003 data came from: "Table 1-1. Live Births, Birth Rates, and Fertility Rates, by Race: United States, 1909–2003". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (Retrieved from: "Vital Statistics of the United States, 2003, Volume I, Natality". CDC.) Post-2003 data came from: "National Vital Statistics Reports" (December 8, 2010). CDC. Volume 59, no. 1. The graph is an expanded SVG version of File:U.S.BirthRate.1909.2003.png
- ^ a b "Fueled by Aging Baby Boomers, Nation's Older Population to Nearly Double in the Next 20 Years, Census Bureau Reports". United States Census Bureau. May 6, 2014.
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- ^ See Richard A. Easterlin, Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare (1987)
- .
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- ^ Figures in Landon Y. Jones, "Swinging 60s?" in Smithsonian Magazine, January 2006, pp 102–107.
- ^ "People & Events: Mrs. America: Women's Roles in the 1950s". PBS. Retrieved July 22, 2008.
- PMID 456702.
- JSTOR 3090096.
- ISBN 0688119123.
- ^ The dates 1946 to 1962 are given in Doug Owram, Born at the right time: a history of the baby boom generation (1997)
- ^ David Foot, Boom, Bust and Echo: Profiting from the Demographic Shift in the 21st Century (1997) see Pearce, Tralee (June 24, 2006). "By definition: Boom, bust, X and why". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on August 7, 2006.
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- ^ Calot, Gérard; Sardon, Jean-Paul (1998). "La vraie histoire du baby boom". Sociétal. 16: 41–44.
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- ^ Office for National Statistics Births in England and Wales: 2017
- ^ "Annual Report of the Registrar-General of Marriages, Births and Deaths in Ireland 1952" (PDF). Central Statistics Office. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
- ^ Coleman, D. A. (1992). "The Demographic Transition in Ireland in International Context" (PDF). Proceedings of the British Academy. 79: 65.
- ^ Cabré, Anna; Torrents, Àngels (1990). "La Elevada nupcialidad como posible desencadenante de la transición demográfica en Cataluña" (PDF): 3–4.
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- ^ Mol, Hans (1967). "Religion in New Zealand". Archives de Sciences Sociales des Religions. 24: 123.
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- ^ Head, Neil; Arnold, Peter (November 2003). "Book Review: The Big Shift" (PDF). The Australian Journal of Emergency Management. 18 (4). Archived from the original on March 5, 2009.
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