Chinese economic reform
Chinese economic reform | |
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Hanyu Pinyin | Gǎigé kāifàng |
Wade–Giles | Kai3-ko2 k'ai1-fang4 |
IPA | [kàɪkɤ̌ kʰáɪfâŋ] |
Yue: Cantonese | |
Yale Romanization | Góigaak hōifong |
Jyutping | Goi2-gaak3 hoi1-fong3 |
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History of the People's Republic of China |
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History of |
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The Chinese economic reform or Chinese economic miracle,
History of the reforms
The
remained.In 2001, China
Origin
Before Deng Xiaoping's reforms, China's economy suffered due to centrally planned policies, such as the
Economic reforms began in earnest during the "Boluan Fanzheng" period, especially after Deng and his reformist allies rose to power with Deng replacing Hua Guofeng as the paramount leader in December 1978. By the time Deng took power, there was widespread support among the elite for economic reforms.[25] From 1978 to 1992, Deng described reform and opening up as a "large scale experiment" requiring thorough "experimentation in practice" instead of textbook knowledge.[26]: 65 As the de facto leader, Deng's policies faced opposition from party conservatives but were extremely successful in increasing the country's wealth.
Major reforms (including rural decollectivization, SOE reform, and rural health care reform) almost always began first as decentralized local experiments subject to intervention from high level Communist Party officials before they were more widely adopted.[26]: 6
1979–1984
In 1979, Deng Xiaoping emphasized the goal of "
Generally, reforms in this period started with local experiments that were adopted and expanded elsewhere once their success had been demonstrated.[31]: 127 Officials generally faced few penalties for experimenting and failing and those who developed successful programs received nation-wide praise and recognition.[31]: 127 The bottom-up approach of the reforms promoted by Deng, in contrast to the top-down approach of the Perestroika in the Soviet Union, is considered an important factor contributing to the success of China's economic transition.[32]
The first reforms
Reforms were also implemented in urban industry to increase productivity. A dual-price system was introduced, in which (State-owned enterprise reform 1979) state-owned industries were allowed to sell any production above the plan quota, and commodities were sold at both plan and market prices, allowing citizens to avoid the
At the same time, in December 1978, Deng announced a new policy, the
In July 1979, China adopted its first Law on Joint Venture Using Chinese and Foreign Investment.[41] This law was effective in helping to attract and absorb foreign technology and capital from advanced countries like the United States, facilitated China's exports to such countries, and thereby contributed to China's subsequent rapid economic growth.[41]
Under the leadership of Yuan Geng, the "Shekou model" of development was gradually formed, embodied in its famous slogan Time is Money, Efficiency is Life, which then widely spread to other parts of China.[39][42] In January 1984, Deng Xiaoping made his first inspection tour to Shenzhen and Zhuhai, praising the "Shenzhen speed" of development as well as the success of the special economics zones.[43][44]
Besides Deng Xiaoping himself, important high-ranking reformists who helped carry out the reforms include
1984–1993
In October 1984, the Party adopted its Decision on the Reform of the Economic System, marking a major shift in the thinking of Chinese policymakers with regard to market mechanisms.[60]: 39–40 The Decision acknowledged that a planned economy was not the only way to develop socialism and that prior policies restricting the commodity economy had hindered socialist development.[60]: 40 After the Decision, reform focused on building a socialist planned commodity economy with Chinese characteristics.[60]: 40
Controls on private businesses and government intervention continued to decrease, notably in the agrifood sector which saw relaxation of
A significant economic debate during this period concerned the approach to price liberalization and whether China should adopt an approach consistent with shock therapy—sudden price liberalization – or a more gradual approach.[65] But in 1986, the latter approach won out.[65] "Confronted with the diverse, authoritative warnings about the unforeseeable risks of imposing the shock of price reform and the uncertainty about its benefits," Premier Zhao Ziyang and the leadership ultimately rejected shock price reform.[65] Zhao had accepted the argument that the basic concern in economic reform was energizing enterprises.[65] By late summer, what started under the rubric of "coordinated comprehensive package reform" had been diluted to an adjustment in the price of steel (although its price was both important had carried symbolic weight) as well as partial tax and financial reform.[65] Radical price reform again became a focus in 1988, and this time led to spiraling inflation (the first time it had done so since the 1940s) as well as a backlash that included local protests, bank runs, and panic buying.[66] The Chinese leadership halted these price liberalization plans in fall 1988 and instead focused on austerity, price reform, and retrenchment.[66]
Corruption and increased inflation increased discontent, contributing to the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre and a conservative backlash after that event which ousted several key reformers and threatened to reverse many of Deng's reforms.
In contrast to the approach of Deng, conservative elders led by Chen Yun called to strike a balance between too much laissez-faire market economy and retaining state control over key areas of the economy. Chen Yun helped preserve the economy by preventing policies that would have damaged the interests of special interest groups in the government bureaucracy.[68]
Although the economy grew quickly during this period, economic troubles in the inefficient
1993–2005
In the 1990s, Deng allowed many radical reforms to be carried out. In 1993, the National People's Congress adopted the landmark Corporation Law.[73] It provides that in state owned enterprises, the state is no more than an investor and controller of stock and assets.[73] Pursuant to the Corporation Law, private and foreign investment in such enterprises must be below 49%.[73] The law also permitted state firms to declare bankruptcy in the event of business failure.[73]
In the beginning, Chen supported Deng, carried out and implemented many of the influential reforms that made a generation of Chinese richer. But later, Chen realized that the state still needed an active iron hand involvement in the market to prevent the private sector from becoming untamable. Chen's criticism of Deng's later economic reforms was widely influential within the CCP and was reflected in the policies of China's leaders after Deng. Chen's theories supported the efforts of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao to use state power to provide boundaries for the operation of the market, and to mediate the damage that capitalism can do to those who find it difficult to benefit from the free market. Chen's notion of the CPC as a "ruling party" was central to the redefinition of the role of the Party in Jiang Zemin's Three Represents. In 2005, on the occasion of the hundredth anniversary of Chen's birth, the Party press published, over the course of several weeks, the proceedings of a symposium discussing Chen's contributions to CCP history, theory and practice.[68]
Although Deng died in 1997, reforms continued under his handpicked successors,
The domestic private sector first exceeded 50% of GDP in 2005 and has further expanded since. Also in 1999, China was able to surpass Japan as the largest economy in Asia by purchasing power parity (PPP) values.[76] However, some state monopolies still remained, such as in petroleum and banking.[77]
2005–2012
CCP general secretary Hu Jintao and premier Wen Jiabao took a more conservative approach towards reforms, and began to reverse some of Deng Xiaoping's reforms in 2005. Observers note that the government adopted more egalitarian and populist policies.[78] It increased subsidies and control over the health care sector,[79] increased funding for education, halted privatization,[17] and adopted a loose monetary policy, which led to the formation of a U.S.-style property bubble in which property prices tripled.[80] The privileged state sector was the primary recipient of government investment, which, under the new administration, promoted the rise of large "national champions" which could compete with large foreign corporations.[17] Nevertheless, the share of SOEs in the total number of companies have continued to fall, dropping to 5%, though their share of total output remained at 26%. Exchange rates for the yuan were also liberalized and the peg to the U.S. dollar was broken, leading the yuan to rise by 31% against the dollar from 2005 to 2012.[81] China's economic growth has averaged around 10% under Hu, while the economy surpassed the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan.[82][81]
2012–2020
Under CCP general secretary
Xi has increased the power of CCP bodies in economic decision-making, decreasing the influence of the State Council and the premier.
Xi's administration has also reoriented the economy to increase self-reliance, and accordingly launched two campaigns; Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035, which have sought to scale up and displace US dominance in various high-tech sectors,[89] though publicly China de-emphasized these plans due to the outbreak of a trade war with the U.S in 2018.[93] This is alongside more aggressive pursuit of trade policies, in line with an outlook that sees China move towards taking a more active role in writing the rules of trade.
Some analysts have also added that the reform era has been scaled down significantly during the leadership of Xi when the reformists lost power,[94][95][96] citing that Xi has reasserted state control over different aspects of Chinese society,[97] including the economy.[19][98][99]
2020–present
Xi has circulated a policy called "dual circulation", meaning reorienting the economy towards domestic consumption while remaining open to foreign trade and investment.[100] Since 2021, his administration has formulated the "three red lines" policy that aimed to deleverage the heavily indebted property sector.[101]
In September 2020, the CCP announced that it would strengthen United Front work in the private sector by establishing more party committees in the regional federations of industry and commerce (FIC), and by arranging a special liaison between FIC and the CCP.[102]
Since 2021, Xi has promoted the term "common prosperity", a term which he defined as an "essential requirement of socialism", described as affluence for all and said entailed reasonable adjustments to excess incomes.[103][104] Common prosperity has been used as the justification for large-scale crackdowns and regulations towards the perceived "excesses" of several sectors, most prominently tech and tutoring industries.[105]
Effects of the reforms
Economic performance
The success of China's economic policies and the manner of their implementation resulted in immense changes in Chinese society in the last 40 years, including greatly decreased poverty while both average incomes and
After three decades of reform, China's economy experienced one of the world's biggest booms. Agriculture and light industry have largely been privatized, while the state still retains control over some heavy industries. Despite the dominance of state ownership in finance, telecommunications, petroleum and other important sectors of the economy, private entrepreneurs continue to expand into sectors formerly reserved for public enterprise. Prices have also been liberalized.[106]
China's economic growth since the reform has been very rapid, exceeding the East Asian Tigers. Since the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's reforms, China's GDP has risen tenfold.[107] The increase in total factor productivity (TFP) was the most important factor, with productivity accounting for 40.1% of the GDP increase, compared with a decline of 13.2% for the period 1957 to 1978—the height of Maoist policies. For the period 1978–2005, Chinese GDP per capita increased from 2.7% to 15.7% of U.S. GDP per capita, and from 53.7% to 188.5% of Indian GDP per capita. Per capita incomes grew at 6.6% a year.[108] Average wages rose sixfold between 1978 and 2005,[109] while absolute poverty declined from 41% of the population to 5% from 1978 to 2001.[110] Some scholars believed that China's economic growth has been understated, due to large sectors of the economy not being counted.[111]
Impact on world growth
China is widely seen as an engine of world and regional growth.[112] Surges in Chinese demand account for 50, 44 and 66 percent of export growth of the Hong Kong SAR of China, Japan and Taiwan respectively, and China's trade deficit with the rest of East Asia helped to revive the economies of Japan and Southeast Asia.[112] Asian leaders view China's economic growth as an "engine of growth for all Asia".[113]
Effect on inequality
Although the economic reforms has caused significant economic growth in China, it has also caused increased inequality, resulting in backlash and an attempt at pushing back the reforms by the Chinese New Left faction. Despite rapid economic growth which has virtually eliminated poverty in urban China and reduced it greatly in rural regions and the fact that living standards for everyone in China have drastically increased in comparison to the pre-reform era, the Gini coefficient of China is estimated to be above 0.45, comparable to some Latin American countries such as Argentina and Mexico as well as the United States.[114]
Increased inequality is attributed to the gradual withdrawal of the welfare state system in China and differences between coastal and interior provinces, the latter being burdened by a larger state sector.[115] Some Western scholars have suggested that reviving the welfare state and instituting a re-distributive income tax system is needed to relieve inequality,[116] while some Chinese economists have suggested that privatizing state monopolies and distributing the proceeds to the population can reduce inequality.[117]
Reforms in specific sectors
Agriculture
During the pre-reform period, Chinese agricultural performance was extremely poor and food shortages were common.[118] After Deng Xiaoping implemented the household responsibility system, agricultural output increased by 8.2% a year, compared with 2.7% in the pre-reform period, despite a decrease in the area of land used.[118] Food prices fell nearly 50%, while agricultural incomes rose.[119]
Zhao Ziyang wrote in his memoirs that in the years following the household contracting system, "the energy that was unleashed … was magical, beyond what anyone could have imagined. A problem thought to be unsolvable had worked itself out in just a few years time … [B]y 1984, farmers actually had more grain than they could sell. The state grain storehouses were stacked full from the annual procurement program."[120]
A fundamental transformation was the economy's growing adoption of cash crops instead of just growing rice and grain.[119] Vegetable and meat production increased to the point that Chinese agricultural production was adding the equivalent of California's vegetable industry every two years. Growth in the sector slowed after 1984, with agriculture falling from 40% of GDP to 16%; however, increases in agricultural productivity allowed workers to be released for work in industry and services, while simultaneously increasing agricultural production.[121] Trade in agriculture was also liberalized and China became an exporter of food, a great contrast to its previous famines and shortages.[122]
Industry
In the pre-reform period, industry was largely stagnant and the socialist system presented few incentives for improvements in quality and productivity. With the introduction of the dual-price system and greater autonomy for enterprise managers, productivity increased greatly in the early 1980s.[123] Foreign enterprises and newly formed Township and Village Enterprises, owned by local government and often de facto private firms, competed successfully with state-owned enterprises. By the 1990s, large-scale privatizations reduced the market share of both the Township and Village Enterprises and state-owned enterprises and increased the private sector's market share. The state sector's share of industrial output dropped from 81% in 1980 to 15% in 2005.[124] Foreign capital controls much of Chinese industry and plays an important role.[62]
From virtually an industrial backwater in 1978, China is now the world's biggest producer of concrete, steel, ships and textiles, and has the world's largest
This increase in production is largely the result of the removal of barriers to entry and increased competition; the number of industrial firms rose from 377,300 in 1980 to nearly 8 million in 1990 and 1996; the 2004 economic census, which excluded enterprises with annual sales below RMB 5 million, counted 1.33 million manufacturing firms, with
Trade and foreign investment
This section needs to be updated. The reason given is: China–United States trade war. (October 2020) |
Some scholars assert that China has maintained a high degree of openness that is unusual among the other large and populous nations,[dubious ] with competition from foreign goods in almost every sector of the economy. Foreign investment helped to greatly increase quality, knowledge and standards, especially in heavy industry. China's experience supports the assertion that globalization greatly increases wealth for poor countries.[128] Throughout the reform period, the government reduced tariffs and other trade barriers, with the overall tariff rate falling from 56% to 15%. By 2001, less than 40% of imports were subject to tariffs and only 9 percent of import were subject to licensing and import quotas. Even during the early reform era, protectionist policies were often circumvented by smuggling.[130] When China joined the WTO, it agreed to considerably harsher conditions than other developing countries.[131] Trade has increased from under 10% of GDP to 64% of GDP over the same period.[132] China is considered the most open large country; by 2005, China's average statutory tariff on industrial products was 8.9%. The average was 30.9% for Argentina, 27.0% for Brazil, 32.4% for India, and 36.9% for Indonesia.[133]
China's trade surplus is considered by some in the United States as threatening American jobs. In the 2000s, the Bush administration pursued protectionist policies such as tariffs and quotas to limit the import of Chinese goods. Some scholars argue that China's growing trade surplus is the result of industries in more developed Asian countries moving to China, and not a new phenomenon.
Foreign investment was also liberalized upon Deng's ascension.
Services
In the 1990s, the financial sector was liberalized.[136] After China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), the service sector was considerably liberalized and foreign investment was allowed; restrictions on retail, wholesale and distribution ended.[137] Banking, financial services, insurance and telecommunications were also opened up to foreign investment.[138]
China's banking sector is dominated by four large state-owned banks, which are largely inefficient and monopolistic.[139] China's largest bank, ICBC, is the largest bank in the world. The financial sector is widely seen as a drag on the economy due to the inefficient state management.[140] Non-performing loans, mostly made to local governments and unprofitable state-owned enterprises for political purposes,[141] especially the political goal of keeping unemployment low, are a big drain on the financial system and economy, reaching over 22% of GDP by 2000, with a drop to 6.3% by 2006 due to government recapitalization of these banks. In 2006, the total amount of non-performing loans was estimated at $160 billion.[142] Observers recommend privatization of the banking system to solve this problem, a move that was partially carried out when the four banks were floated on the stock market.[143] China's financial markets, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, are relatively ineffective at raising capital, as they comprise only 11% of GDP.[144]
Due to the weakness of the banks, firms raise most of their capital through an informal, nonstandard financial sector developed during the 1980s and 1990s, consisting largely of underground businesses and private banks.[145] Internal finance is the most important method successful firms use to fund their activities.[145]
By the 1980s much emphasis was placed on the role of advertising in meeting the modernization goals being promoted by Deng. Lip service was still paid to old Maoist ideals of egalitarianism, but it did not inhibit the growth of consumerism.[146]
Government finances
In the pre-reform era, government was funded by profits from
Academic studies
Reasons for success
Scholars have proposed a number of theories to explain China's successful transition from a planned to a socialist market economy. This occurred despite unfavorable factors such as the troublesome legacies of socialism, considerable erosion of the work ethic, decades of anti-market propaganda, and the "lost generation" whose education disintegrated amid the disruption of the Cultural Revolution.[150]
One notable theory is that decentralization of state authority allowed local leaders to experiment with various ways to privatize the state sector and energize the economy.
Taken together, Yuen Yuen Ang argues in Foreign Affairs that political reforms took place with economic reforms under Deng, except the former did not take Western forms. She writes, "To be sure, Deng's reforms emphasized brute capital accumulation rather than holistic development, which led to environmental degradation, inequality, and other social problems. Still they undoubtedly kicked China's growth machine into gear by making the bureaucracy results oriented, fiercely competitive, and responsive to business needs, qualities that are normally associated with democracies." But this only applies to the Deng era. Ang notes that since 2012, when Xi Jinping took over, the new leader has reversed Deng's political reforms and limits to power, "just as political freedoms have become imperative for continued economic growth."[153]
China's success is also due to the
In contrast to the neoliberal view which emphasizes benefits from decentralization, increased privatization, and globalization, Professor Lin Chun concludes that studies have demonstrated pre-reform period factors that are at least as compelling factors in China's success.[161] Those factors include strong "human capital" accumulated through decades of state investments in basic needs including health care and public education, state and rural collective ownership of land, the public sector's retaining of strategic industries, government sponsorship of trade and technology transfers, and public spending.[161]
The collapse of the Soviet Bloc and centrally planned economies in 1989 provided renewed impetus for China to further reform its economy through different policies to avoid a similar fate.[162] China also wanted to avoid the Russian ad-hoc experiments with market capitalism under Boris Yeltsin resulting in the rise of powerful oligarchs, corruption, and the loss of state revenue which exacerbated economic disparity.[163]
The
Comparison to other developing economies
China's transition from a planned economy to a socialist market economy has often been compared with economies in Eastern Europe that are undergoing a similar transition. China's performance has been praised for avoiding the major shocks and inflation that plagued the Eastern Bloc.[165] The Eastern bloc economies saw declines varying from 13% to 65% in GDP at the beginning of reforms, while Chinese growth has been very strong since the beginning of reform.[166] China also managed to avoid the hyperinflation of 200 to 1,000% that Eastern Europe experienced.[167] This success is attributed to the gradualist and decentralized approach of the Chinese government, which allowed market institutions to develop to the point where they could replace state planning. This contrasts with the "big bang" approach of Eastern Europe, where the state-owned sector was rapidly privatized with employee buyouts, but retained much of the earlier, inefficient management.[168] Other factors thought to account for the differences are the greater urbanization of the CIS economies and differences in social welfare and other institutions.[169] Another argument is that, in the Eastern European economies, political change is sometimes seen to have made gradualist reforms impossible, so the shocks and inflation were unavoidable.[170]
China's economic growth has been compared with other developing countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, and India. GDP growth in China outstrips all other developing countries, with only India after 1990 coming close to China's experience.
Criticism and development issues
The government retains monopolies in several sectors, such as petroleum and banking. The recent reversal of some reforms have left some observers dubbing 2008 the "third anniversary of the end of reforms".[17] Nevertheless, observers[who?] believe that China's economy can continue growing at rates of 6–8 percent until 2025,[173] though a reduction in state intervention is considered by some to be necessary for sustained growth.[174]
It has been reported, including by the National Bureau of Statistics, that over the years that the GDP figures and other economic data from local Chinese governments may be inflated or manipulated otherwise.[175][176][177][178][179] Officials from central government have said that local government officials sometimes falsify economic data to meet the economic growth targets or for personal promotions.[175][180]
Despite reducing poverty and increasing China's wealth, Deng's reforms have been criticized by the Chinese New Left for increasing inequality and allowing private entrepreneurs to purchase state assets at reduced prices. These accusations were especially intense during the Lang–Gu dispute, in which New Left academic Larry Hsien Ping Lang accused entrepreneur Gu Sujung of usurping state assets, after which Gu was imprisoned.[181] The Hu–Wen Administration adopted some New Left policies, such as halting privatizations and increasing the state sector's importance in the economy, and Keynesian policies that have been criticized by some Chinese economists such as Zhang Weiying, who advocate a policy of deregulation, tax cuts and privatization.[117]
Other criticisms focus on the effects of rapid industrialization on public health and the environment. For instance, China is the largest CO2 emitter in the world.[182] However, scholars believe that public health issues are unlikely to become major obstacles to the growth of China's economy during the coming decades, and studies have shown that air quality and other environmental measures in China are better than those in developed countries, such as the United States and Japan, at the same level of development.[183] Air pollution reached its peak in the early 2010s, and has declined significantly since then.[184][185]
Some scholars have also contested the claims that the reform has led to as dramatic reduction in poverty as reported. The dramatic reduction reported relies on the use of the
The economic reforms were initially accompanied with a series of political reforms in the 1980s, supported by Deng Xiaoping. However, many of the planned political reforms ended after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre.[189] Lack of political reform contributed to the serious corruption issue in China.[190] Additionally, China's economic growth has led to the rise of a real estate bubble from 2005 to 2011 and a property sector crisis since 2020.[191]
Since the late 1970s, Deng and other senior leaders including Chen Yun and Li Xiannian supported the "one-child policy" to cope with the overpopulation crisis.[192] However, the 2010 census data showed that the population growth rate dropped to low levels.[193] Due to the financial pressure and other factors, many young couples increasingly choose to delay or even abandon the plan of raising a second child even after the Chinese government largely relaxed the one-child policy in late 2015.[194][195][196] This has led to the aging of the Chinese population, which economists have said could potentially harm the economy in the future.[195][197][198]
See also
- China model/Beijing Consensus
- Deng Xiaoping Theory
- Go Out policy
- China's political reforms in 1980s
- Japanese economic miracle
- Khrushchev Thaw
- Tiger economy
- Lost decade
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General and cited sources
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Further reading
- Gewirtz, Julian. 2022. Never Turn Back: China and the Forbidden History of the 1980s. Belknap Press.
External links
- Quotations related to Chinese economic reform at Wikiquote