Scientific method

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The scientific method is an empirical method for acquiring knowledge that has characterized the development of science since at least the 17th century. (For notable practitioners in previous centuries, see history of scientific method.)

The scientific method involves careful observation coupled with rigorous scepticism, because cognitive assumptions can distort the interpretation of the observation. Scientific inquiry includes creating a hypothesis through inductive reasoning, testing it through experiments and statistical analysis, and adjusting or discarding the hypothesis based on the results.[1][2][3]

Although procedures vary from one

falsifiable, implying that it is possible to identify a possible outcome of an experiment or observation that conflicts with predictions deduced from the hypothesis; otherwise, the hypothesis cannot be meaningfully tested.[5]

Though the scientific method is often presented as a fixed sequence of steps, it represents rather a set of general principles.[6] Not all steps take place in every scientific inquiry (nor to the same degree), and they are not always in the same order.[7][8]

History

The history of scientific method considers changes in the methodology of scientific inquiry, as distinct from the

scientific reasoning
has not been straightforward; scientific method has been the subject of intense and recurring debate throughout the history of science, and eminent natural philosophers and scientists have argued for the primacy of one or another approach to establishing scientific knowledge.

Early empiricism

Different early expressions of

.

The scientific revolution

In the

rationalist approach described by René Descartes and inductivism, brought to particular prominence by and around Isaac Newton
.

From the 16th century onwards, experiments were advocated by Francis Bacon, and performed by Giambattista della Porta,[20] Johannes Kepler,[21][d] and Galileo Galilei.[β] There was particular development aided by theoretical works by a skeptic Francisco Sanches,[23] by idealists as well as empiricists John Locke, George Berkeley, and David Hume.[γ]

The canonical method

The early version of the canonical "sequence" of elements was first formulated in the 19th century. A sea voyage from America to Europe afforded

C. S. Peirce the distance to clarify his ideas, gradually resulting in the hypothetico-deductive model.[26]
Formulated in the 20th century, the model has undergone significant revision since first proposed.

The term "scientific method" emerged in the 19th century, as a result of significant institutional development of science, and terminologies establishing clear

antirealism was conducted as powerful scientific theories extended beyond the realm of the observable.[28]

Modern use and critical thought

The term "scientific method" came into popular use in the twentieth century; Dewey's 1910 book, How We Think, inspired popular guidelines,[29] appearing in dictionaries and science textbooks, although there was little consensus over its meaning.[27] Although there was growth through the middle of the twentieth century,[e] by the 1960s and 1970s numerous influential philosophers of science such as Thomas Kuhn and Paul Feyerabend had questioned the universality of the "scientific method" and in doing so largely replaced the notion of science as a homogeneous and universal method with that of it being a heterogeneous and local practice.[27] In particular, Paul Feyerabend, in the 1975 first edition of his book Against Method, argued against there being any universal rules of science;[28] Karl Popper,[δ] and Gauch 2003,[6] disagree with Feyerabend's claim.

Later stances include physicist

narrative fallacy as Taleb points out.[34] Philosophers Robert Nola and Howard Sankey, in their 2007 book Theories of Scientific Method, said that debates over the scientific method continue, and argued that Feyerabend, despite the title of Against Method, accepted certain rules of method and attempted to justify those rules with a meta methodology.[35]
Staddon (2017) argues it is a mistake to try following rules in the absence of an algorithmic scientific method; in that case, "science is best understood through examples".
Alhacen (1027) Book of Optics,[a] and Galileo (1638) Two New Sciences,[22] and The Assayer[38]
still stand as scientific method.

Elements of inquiry

The basic elements of the scientific method are illustrated by the following example (which occurred from 1944 to 1953) from the discovery of the structure of DNA (marked with DNA label and indented).

Overview

The scientific method is often represented as an ongoing process. This diagram represents one variant, and there are many others.

There are different ways of outlining the basic method used for scientific inquiry and they are better considered as general principles than a fixed sequence of steps.

experimental sciences than social sciences. Nonetheless, the cycle of formulating hypotheses, testing and analyzing the results, and formulating new hypotheses, will resemble the cycle described below. The scientific method is an iterative, cyclical process through which information is continually revised.[ζ][40][41] It is generally recognized to develop advances in knowledge through the following elements, in varying combinations or contributions:[42][43]

  • Characterizations (observations, definitions, and measurements of the subject of inquiry)
  • Hypotheses (theoretical, hypothetical explanations of observations and measurements of the subject)
  • Predictions (inductive and deductive reasoning from the hypothesis or theory)
  • Experiments (tests of all of the above)

Each element of the scientific method is subject to peer review for possible mistakes. These activities do not describe all that scientists do but apply mostly to experimental sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry, biology, and psychology). The elements above are often taught in the educational system as "the scientific method".[C]

The scientific method is not a single recipe: it requires intelligence, imagination, and creativity.[44] In this sense, it is not a mindless set of standards and procedures to follow but is rather an ongoing cycle, constantly developing more useful, accurate, and comprehensive models and methods. For example, when Einstein developed the Special and General Theories of Relativity, he did not in any way refute or discount Newton's Principia. On the contrary, if the astronomically massive, the feather-light, and the extremely fast are removed from Einstein's theories – all phenomena Newton could not have observed – Newton's equations are what remain. Einstein's theories are expansions and refinements of Newton's theories and, thus, increase confidence in Newton's work.

An iterative,[41] pragmatic[13] scheme of the four points above is sometimes offered as a guideline for proceeding:[45]

  1. Define a question
  2. Gather information and resources (observe)
  3. Form an explanatory hypothesis
  4. Test the hypothesis by performing an experiment and collecting data in a reproducible manner
  5. Analyze the data
  6. Interpret the data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for a new hypothesis
  7. Publish results
  8. Retest (frequently done by other scientists)

The iterative cycle inherent in this step-by-step method goes from point 3 to 6 and back to 3 again.

While this schema outlines a typical hypothesis/testing method,[46] many philosophers, historians, and sociologists of science, including Paul Feyerabend,[f] claim that such descriptions of scientific method have little relation to the ways that science is actually practiced.

Characterizations

DNA label In 1950, it was known that

measurements and/or counting can take the form of expansive empirical research
.

A scientific question can refer to the explanation of a specific observation,[C] as in "Why is the sky blue?" but can also be open-ended, as in "How can I design a drug to cure this particular disease?" This stage frequently involves finding and evaluating evidence from previous experiments, personal scientific observations or assertions, as well as the work of other scientists. If the answer is already known, a different question that builds on the evidence can be posed. When applying the scientific method to research, determining a good question can be very difficult and it will affect the outcome of the investigation.[50]

The systematic, careful collection of measurements or counts of relevant quantities is often the critical difference between pseudo-sciences, such as alchemy, and science, such as chemistry or biology. Scientific measurements are usually tabulated, graphed, or mapped, and statistical manipulations, such as correlation and regression, performed on them. The measurements might be made in a controlled setting, such as a laboratory, or made on more or less inaccessible or unmanipulatable objects such as stars or human populations. The measurements often require specialized scientific instruments such as thermometers, spectroscopes, particle accelerators, or voltmeters, and the progress of a scientific field is usually intimately tied to their invention and improvement.

I am not accustomed to saying anything with certainty after only one or two observations.

— Andreas Vesalius, (1546)[51]

Definition

The scientific definition of a term sometimes differs substantially from its

units of measure
which can later be described in terms of conventional physical units when communicating the work.

New theories are sometimes developed after realizing certain terms have not previously been sufficiently clearly defined. For example,

motion, as being well known to all." Einstein's paper then demonstrates that they (viz., absolute time and length independent of motion) were approximations. Francis Crick cautions us that when characterizing a subject, however, it can be premature to define something when it remains ill-understood.[52] In Crick's study of consciousness, he actually found it easier to study awareness in the visual system, rather than to study free will
, for example. His cautionary example was the gene; the gene was much more poorly understood before Watson and Crick's pioneering discovery of the structure of DNA; it would have been counterproductive to spend much time on the definition of the gene, before them.

Hypothesis development

DNA label

James D. Watson but discarded. When Watson and Crick learned of Pauling's hypothesis, they understood from existing data that Pauling was wrong.[55] and that Pauling would soon admit his difficulties with that structure.

A hypothesis

is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between or among a set of phenomena.

Normally hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model. Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as existential statements, stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements, stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic.

Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have – their own creativity, ideas from other fields, inductive reasoning, Bayesian inference, and so on – to imagine possible explanations for a phenomenon under study. Albert Einstein once observed that "there is no logical bridge between phenomena and their theoretical principles."[56][g] Charles Sanders Peirce, borrowing a page from Aristotle (Prior Analytics, 2.25)[58] described the incipient stages of inquiry, instigated by the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as abductive reasoning.[59]: II, p.290  The history of science is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for evidence to support or refute their idea. Michael Polanyi made such creativity the centerpiece of his discussion of methodology.

William Glen observes that[60]

the success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate ... bald suppositions and areas of vagueness.

— William Glen, The Mass-Extinction Debates

In general, scientists tend to look for theories that are "

Occam's Razor
serves as a rule of thumb for choosing the most desirable amongst a group of equally explanatory hypotheses.

To minimize the confirmation bias that results from entertaining a single hypothesis, strong inference emphasizes the need for entertaining multiple alternative hypotheses,[61] and avoiding artifacts.[62]

Predictions from the hypothesis