Sea level rise

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This article is about the current and projected rise in the world's average sea level. For sea level rise in general, see Past sea level.
"Rising seas" redirects here. For the song, see Rising Seas (song).

The global average sea level has risen about 250 millimetres (9.8 in) since 1880.[1]

Between 1901 and 2018, average global

temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, while polar glaciers in Greenland accounted for 15% and those in Antarctica for 8%.[5]: 1576  Sea level rise lags behind changes in the Earth's temperature, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.[6] What happens after that depends on human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise would slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are very deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it would accelerate. It could rise by 1.01 m (3+1⁄3 ft) or even 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by then.[4][7]: 1302  In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[4]
: 21 

Rising seas affect every coastal and island population on Earth.

Crop production falls because of salinization of irrigation water. Damage to ports disrupts sea trade.[10][11][12] The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century.[13]
Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be vulnerable to large-scale migration and economic disruption.

Local factors like

Pacific islands. Sea level rise will make many of them uninhabitable later this century.[18]

Societies can adapt to sea level rise in three ways. Managed retreat, accommodating coastal change, or protecting against sea level rise through hard-construction practices like seawalls[19] are hard approaches. There are also soft approaches such as dune rehabilitation and beach nourishment. Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand. At other times choices must be made among different strategies.[20] A managed retreat strategy is difficult if an area's population is increasing rapidly. This is a particularly acute problem for Africa. There, the population of low-lying coastal areas is likely to increase by around 100 million people within the next 40 years.[21] Poorer nations may also struggle to implement the same approaches to adapt to sea level rise as richer states. Sea level rise at some locations may be compounded by other environmental issues. One example is subsidence in sinking cities.[22] Coastal ecosystems typically adapt to rising sea levels by moving inland. Natural or artificial barriers may make that impossible.[23]

Observations

Sea surface height change from 1992 to 2019 – NASA
The visualization is based on data collected from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3 satellites. Blue regions are where sea level has gone down, and orange/red regions are where sea level has risen.[24]

Between 1901 and 2018, the global mean sea level rose by about 20 cm (7.9 in).[4] More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements found a rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017 (average of 2.9 mm (0.11 in)/yr).[5] This accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for 2013–2022.[3]

Regional variations

Further information: Relative sea level and Sinking cities

Sea level rise is not uniform around the globe. Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of subsidence (land sinking or settling) or post-glacial rebound (land rising as melting ice reduces weight). Therefore, local relative sea level rise may be higher or lower than the global average. Changing ice masses also affect the distribution of sea water around the globe through gravity.[25][26]

When a glacier or ice sheet melts, it loses mass. This reduces its gravitational pull. In some places near current and former glaciers and ice sheets, this has caused water levels to drop. At the same time water levels will increase more than average further away from the ice sheet. Thus ice loss in

U.S. East Coast. The East Coast sea level is rising at 3–4 times the global average.[28] Scientists have linked extreme regional sea level rise on the US Northeast Coast to the downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).[29]

Many

Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt delta (Netherlands) are 3–4 m (10–13 ft), over 3 m (10 ft) in urban areas of the Mississippi River Delta (New Orleans), and over 9 m (30 ft) in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta.[31]: 81–90  On the other hand, relative sea level around the Hudson Bay in Canada and the northern Baltic is falling due to post-glacial isostatic rebound.[32]

Projections

NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise through 2050 for several US coastlines.[16]

There are two complementary ways to model sea level rise (SLR) and project the future. The first uses process-based modeling. This combines all relevant and well-understood physical processes in a global physical model. This approach calculates the contributions of ice sheets with an ice-sheet model and computes rising sea temperature and expansion with a general circulation model. The processes are imperfectly understood, but this approach has the advantage of predicting non-linearities and long delays in the response, which studies of the recent past will miss.

The other approach employs semi-empirical techniques. These use historical geological data to determine likely sea level responses to a warming world, and some basic physical modeling.[33] These semi-empirical sea level models rely on statistical techniques. They use relationships between observed past contributions to global mean sea level and temperature.[34] Scientists developed this type of modeling because most physical models in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) literature assessments had underestimated the amount of sea level rise compared to 20th century observations.[26]

Projections for the 21st century

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.[35] RCPs are different scenarios for future concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Paris climate agreement goal of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). In that case, the likely range of sea level rise by 2100 is 28–55 cm (11–21+1⁄2 in).[7]
: 1302 

The lowest scenario in AR5, RCP2.6, would see greenhouse gas emissions low enough to meet the goal of limiting warming by 2100 to 2 °C (36 °F). It shows sea level rise in 2100 of about 44 cm (17 in) with a range of 28–61 cm (11–24 in). The "moderate" scenario, where CO2 emissions take a decade or two to peak and its atmospheric concentration does not plateau until 2070s is called RCP 4.5. Its likely range of sea level rise is 36–71 cm (14–28 in). The highest scenario in RCP8.5 pathway sea level would rise between 52 and 98 cm (20+1⁄2 and 38+1⁄2 in).[26][36] AR6 had equivalents for both scenarios, but it estimated larger sea level rise under both. In AR6, the SSP1-2.6 pathway results in a range of 32–62 cm (12+1⁄2–24+1⁄2 in) by 2100. The "moderate" SSP2-4.5 results in a 44–76 cm (17+1⁄2–30 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 led to 65–101 cm (25+1⁄2–40 in).[7]: 1302 

A set of older (2007-2012) projections of sea level rise. There was a wide range of estimates.
Sea level rise projections for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 from 2007 to 2012

Further, AR5 was criticized by multiple researchers for excluding detailed estimates the impact of "low-confidence" processes like marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instability,[37][38][39] which can substantially accelerate ice loss to potentially add "tens of centimeters" to sea level rise within this century.[26] AR6 includes a version of SSP5-8.5 where these processes take place, and in that case, sea level rise of up to 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by 2100 could not be ruled out.[7]: 1302  The general increase of projections in AR6 was caused by the observed ice-sheet erosion in Greenland and Antarctica matching the upper-end range of the AR5 projections by 2020,[40][41] and the finding that AR5 projections were likely too slow next to an extrapolation of observed sea level rise trends, while the subsequent reports had improved in this regard.[42]

Notably, some scientists believe that ice sheet processes may accelerate sea level rise even at temperatures below the highest possible scenario, though not as much. For instance, a 2017 study from the

Jim Hansen hypothesized that vulnerable ice sheet section collapse can lead to near-term exponential sea level rise acceleration, with a doubling time of 10, 20, or 40 years. Such acceleration would lead to multi-meter sea level rise in 50, 100, or 200 years, respectively,[39] but it remains a minority view amongst the scientific community.[45]

For comparison, a major scientific survey of 106 experts in 2020 found that even when accounting for instability processes they had estimated a median sea level rise of 45 cm (17+1⁄2 in) by 2100 for RCP2.6, with a 5%-95% range of 21–82 cm (8+1⁄2–32+1⁄2 in). For RCP8.5, the experts estimated a median of 93 cm (36+1⁄2 in) by 2100 and a 5%-95% range of 45–165 cm (17+1⁄2–65 in).

NOAA in 2022 had suggested that there is a 50% probability of 0.5 m (19+1⁄2 in) sea level rise by 2100 under 2 °C (3.6 °F), which increases to >80% to >99% under 3–5 °C (5.4–9.0 °F).[16] Year 2019 elicitation of 22 ice sheet experts suggested a median SLR of 30 cm (12 in) by 2050 and 70 cm (27+1⁄2 in) by 2100 in the low emission scenario and the median of 34 cm (13+1⁄2 in) by 2050 and 110 cm (43+1⁄2 in) by 2100 in a high emission scenario. They also estimated a small chance of sea levels exceeding 1 meter by 2100 even in the low emission scenario and of going beyond 2 metres in the high emission scenario, with the latter causing the displacement of 187 million people.[47]

Post-2100 sea level rise

If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), sea level rise by 2100 will be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet).[48] However, in a worst-case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year 2300.[48]
A map showing major SLR impact in south-east Asia, Northern Europe and the East Coast of the US
Map of the Earth with a long-term 6-metre (20 ft) sea level rise represented in red (uniform distribution, actual sea level rise will vary regionally and local adaptation measures will also have an effect on local sea levels).

Even if the temperature stabilizes, significant sea-level rise (SLR) will continue for centuries,[49] consistent with paleo records of sea level rise.[26]: 1189  This is due to the high level of inertia in the carbon cycle and the climate system, owing to factors such as the slow diffusion of heat into the deep ocean, leading to a longer climate response time [50]. After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal expansion alone may have reached only half of its eventual level. Models suggest this may lie within ranges of 0.5–2 m (1+1⁄2–6+1⁄2 ft).[51] Additionally, tipping points of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are likely to play a larger role over such timescales.[52] Ice loss from Antarctica is likely to dominate very long-term SLR, especially if the warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F). Continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia. The available fossil fuel on Earth is enough to melt the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 m (190 ft) of sea level rise.[53]

Based on research into multimillennial sea level rise [54], AR6 was able to create medium agreement estimates for the amount of sea level rise over the next 2,000 years, depending on the peak of global warming, which project that:

  • At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 2–3 m (6+1⁄2–10 ft)
  • At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 2–6 m (6+1⁄2–19+1⁄2 ft)
  • At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 19–22 m (62+1⁄2–72 ft)[4]: SPM-21 

Sea levels would continue to rise for several thousand years after the ceasing of emissions, due to the slow nature of climate response to heat. The same estimates on a timescale of 10,000 years project that:

  • At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 6–7 m (19+1⁄2–23 ft)
  • At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 8–13 m (26–42+1⁄2 ft)
  • At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 28–37 m (92–121+1⁄2 ft)[7]: 1306 

With better models and observational records, several studies have attempted to project SLR for the centuries immediately after 2100. This remains largely speculative. An April 2019 expert elicitation asked 22 experts about total sea level rise projections for the years 2200 and 2300 under its high, 5 °C warming scenario. It ended up with 90% confidence intervals of −10 cm (4 in) to 740 cm (24+1⁄2 ft) and −9 cm (3+1⁄2 in) to 970 cm (32 ft), respectively. Negative values represent the extremely low probability of very large increases in the ice sheet

surface mass balance due to climate change-induced increase in precipitation.[47] An elicitation of 106 experts led by Stefan Rahmstorf also included 2300 for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The former had the median of 118 cm (46+1⁄2 in), and a 5%-95% range of 24–311 cm (9+1⁄2–122+1⁄2 in). The latter had the median of 329 cm (129+1⁄2 in), and a 5%-95% range of 88–783 cm (34+1⁄2–308+1⁄2 in).[46]

By 2021, AR6 was also able to provide estimates for sea level rise in 2150 alongside the 2100 estimates for the first time. This showed that keeping warming at 1.5 °C under the SSP1-1.9 scenario would result in sea level rise in the 17-83% range of 37–86 cm (14+1⁄2–34 in). In the SSP1-2.6 pathway the range would be 46–99 cm (18–39 in), for SSP2-4.5 a 66–133 cm (26–52+1⁄2 in) range by 2100 and for SSP5-8.5 a rise of 98–188 cm (38+1⁄2–74 in). It stated that the "low-confidence, high impact" projected 0.63–1.60 m (2–5 ft) mean sea level rise by 2100, and that by 2150, the total sea level rise in his scenario would be in the range of 0.98–4.82 m (3–16 ft) by 2150.[7]: 1302  AR6 also provided lower-confidence estimates for year 2300 sea level rise under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 with various impact assumptions. In the best case scenario, under SSP1-2.6 with no ice sheet acceleration after 2100, the estimate was only 0.8–2.0 metres (2.6–6.6 ft). In the worst estimated scenario, SSP-8.5 with a marine ice cliff instability scenario, the projected range for total sea level rise was 9.5–16.2 metres (31–53 ft) by the year 2300. [7]: 1306 

A 2018 paper estimated that sea level rise in 2300 would increase by a median of 20 cm (8 in) for every five years CO2 emissions increase before peaking. It shows a 5% likelihood of a 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) increase due to the same. The same estimate found that if the temperature stabilized below 2 °C (3.6 °F), 2300 sea level rise would still exceed 1.5 m (5 ft). Early

net zero and slowly falling temperatures could limit it to 70–120 cm (27+1⁄2–47 in).[55]

Measurements

Variations in the amount of water in the oceans, changes in its volume, or varying land elevation compared to the sea surface can drive sea level changes. Over a consistent time period, assessments can attribute contributions to sea level rise and provide early indications of change in trajectory. This helps to inform adaptation plans.

landmasses still rising from past ice masses retreating, and the Earth's gravity and rotation.[5]

Satellites

Jason-2, and by Jason-3
.

Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, an overlapping series of altimetric satellites has been continuously recording the sea level and its changes.[58] These satellites can measure the hills and valleys in the sea caused by currents and detect trends in their height. To measure the distance to the sea surface, the satellites send a microwave pulse towards Earth and record the time it takes to return after reflecting off the ocean's surface. Microwave radiometers correct the additional delay caused by water vapor in the atmosphere. Combining these data with the location of the spacecraft determines the sea-surface height to within a few centimetres.[59] These satellite measurements have estimated rates of sea level rise for 1993–2017 at 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (1⁄8 ± 1⁄64 in) per year.[60]

Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level. An example is the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific. This sharp rise has been linked to increasing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) change from one state to the other.[61] The PDO is a basin-wide climate pattern consisting of two phases, each commonly lasting 10 to 30 years. The ENSO has a shorter period of 2 to 7 years.[62]

Tide gauges

Between 1993 and 2018, the mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors).[63]

The global network of tide gauges is the other important source of sea-level observations. Compared to the satellite record, this record has major spatial gaps but covers a much longer period.[64] Coverage of tide gauges started mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Data for the Southern Hemisphere remained scarce up to the 1970s.[64] The longest running sea-level measurements, NAP or Amsterdam Ordnance Datum were established in 1675, in Amsterdam.[65] Record collection is also extensive in Australia. They including measurements by an amateur meteorologist beginning in 1837. They also include measurements taken from a sea-level benchmark struck on a small cliff on the Isle of the Dead near the Port Arthur convict settlement in 1841.[66]

Together with satellite data for the period after 1992, this network established that global mean sea level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr. (For the 20th century the average is 1.7 mm/yr.)

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) had shown that the global mean sea level was rising by 3.2 mm (1⁄8 in) per year. This was double the average 20th century rate.[68][69] The 2023 World Meteorological Organization report found further acceleration to 4.62 mm/yr over the 2013–2022 period.[3]
These observations help to check and verify predictions from climate change simulations.

Regional differences are also visible in the tide gauge data. Some are caused by local sea level differences. Others are due to vertical land movements. In Europe, only some land areas are rising while the others are sinking. Since 1970, most tidal stations have measured higher seas. However sea levels along the northern Baltic Sea have dropped due to post-glacial rebound.[70]

Past sea level rise

Main articles: Past sea level, Sea level § Change, and Marine transgression
parts per million (similar to 2000s) had increased temperature by over 2–3 °C (3.6–5.4 °F) around three million years ago. This temperature increase eventually melted one third of Antarctica's ice sheet, causing sea levels to rise 20 meters above the preindustrial levels.[72]

Since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft). Rates vary from less than 1 mm/year during the pre-industrial era to 40+ mm/year when major ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia melted. Meltwater pulses are periods of fast sea level rise caused by the rapid disintegration of these ice sheets. The rate of sea level rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before today. Sea level was almost constant for the last 2,500 years. The recent trend of rising sea level started at the end of the 19th or beginning of the 20th century.[73]

Causes

A graph showing ice loss sea ice, ice shelves and land ice. Land ice loss contributetes to SLR
Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017: ice sheets and glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s−from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year.[74]

The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are the expansion of oceans due to heating, water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. Glacier retreat and ocean expansion have dominated sea level rise since the start of the 20th century.[33] Some of the losses from glaciers are offset when precipitation falls as snow, accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge balance each other, sea level remains the same. Because of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface, effects of climate change on the water cycle can even increase ice build-up. However, this effect is not enough to fully offset ice losses, and sea level rise continues to accelerate.[21][75][76][77]

The contributions of the two large ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, are likely to increase in the 21st century.[33] They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of 7.4 m (24 ft 3 in) for Greenland and 58.3 m (191 ft 3 in) for Antarctica.[5] Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about 70 m (229 ft 8 in) of sea level rise,[78] although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to 10 °C (18 °F) of global warming.[79][80]

Ocean heating

Main article: Ocean heat content
global warming.[81]

The oceans store more than 90% of the extra heat added to the climate system by

Earth's energy imbalance and act as a buffer against its effects.[82] This means that the same amount of heat that would increase the average world ocean temperature by 0.01 °C (0.018 °F) would increase atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C (18 °F).[83] So a small change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system. Winds and currents move heat into deeper parts of the ocean. Some of it reaches depths of more than 2,000 m (6,600 ft).[84]

When the ocean gains heat, the water expands and sea level rises. Warmer water and water under great pressure (due to depth) expand more than cooler water and water under less pressure.[26]: 1161  Consequently, cold Arctic Ocean water will expand less than warm tropical water. Different climate models present slightly different patterns of ocean heating. So their projections do not agree fully on how much ocean heating contributes to sea level rise.[85]

Antarctic ice loss

Processes around an Antarctic ice shelf
The Ross Ice Shelf is Antarctica's largest. It is about the size of France and up to several hundred metres thick.

The large volume of ice on the Antarctic continent stores around 60% of the world's fresh water. Excluding groundwater this is 90%.[86] Antarctica is experiencing ice loss from coastal glaciers in the West Antarctica and some glaciers of East Antarctica. However it is gaining mass from the increased snow build-up inland, particularly in the East. This leads to contradicting trends.[77][87] There are different satellite methods for measuring ice mass and change. Combining them helps to reconcile the differences.[88] However, there can still be variations between the studies. In 2018, a systematic review estimated average annual ice loss of 43 billion tons (Gt) across the entire continent between 1992 and 2002. This tripled to an annual average of 220 Gt from 2012 to 2017.[75][89] However, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems (Envisat, European Remote-Sensing Satellite, GRACE and GRACE-FO and ICESat) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012 to 2016. This was due to greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier.[77]

In the future, it is known that West Antarctica at least will continue to lose mass, and the likely future losses of sea ice and ice shelves, which block warmer currents from direct contact with the ice sheet, can accelerate declines even in East Antarctica.[90][91] Altogether, Antarctica is the source of the largest uncertainty for future sea level projections.[92] In 2019, the SROCC assessed several studies attempting to estimate 2300 sea level rise caused by ice loss in Antarctica alone, arriving at projected estimates of 0.07–0.37 metres (0.23–1.21 ft) for the low emission RCP2.6 scenario, and 0.60–2.89 metres (2.0–9.5 ft) in the high emission RCP8.5 scenario.[7]: 1272 However, the report notes the wide range of estimates, and gives low confidence in the projection, saying that it retains "deep uncertainty" in their ability to estimate the whole of long term damage to Antarctic ice, especially in scenarios of very high emissions.

East Antarctica

The world's largest potential source of sea level rise is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). It is 2.2 km thick on average and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (174 ft 10 in)[93] Its great thickness and high elevation make it more stable than the other ice sheets.[94] As of the early 2020s, most studies show that it is still gaining mass.[95][75][77][87] Some analyses have suggested it began to lose mass in the 2000s.[96][76][91] However they over-extrapolated some observed losses on to the poorly observed areas. A more complete observational record shows continued mass gain.[77]

Aerial view of ice flows at Denman Glacier, one of the less stable glaciers in the East Antarctica

In spite of the net mass gain, some East Antarctica glaciers have lost ice in recent decades due to

ocean warming and declining structural support from the local sea ice,[90] such as Denman Glacier,[97][98] and Totten Glacier.[99][100] Totten Glacier is particularly important because it stabilizes the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Subglacial basins like Aurora and Wilkes Basin are major ice reservoirs together holding as much ice as all of West Antarctica.[101] They are more vulnerable than the rest of East Antarctica.[38] Their collective tipping point probably lies at around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming. It may be as high as 6 °C (11 °F) or as low as 2 °C (3.6 °F). Once this tipping point is crossed, the collapse of these subglacial basins could take place over as little as 500 or as much as 10,000 years. The median timeline is 2000 years.[79][80] Depending on how many subglacial basins are vulnerable, this causes sea level rise of between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in).[102]

On the other hand, the whole EAIS would not definitely collapse until global warming reaches 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). It would take at least 10,000 years to disappear.[79][80] Some scientists have estimated that warming would have to reach at least 6 °C (11 °F) to melt two thirds of its volume.[103]

West Antarctica

Thwaites Glacier, with its vulnerable bedrock topography visible.

East Antarctica contains the largest potential source of sea level rise. However the

Amundsen Sea Embayment played a disproportionate role.[105]

Scientists estimated in 2021 that the median increase in sea level rise from Antarctica by 2100 is ~11 cm (5 in). There is no difference between scenarios, because the increased warming would

Pine Island glaciers. If these glaciers were to collapse, the entire ice sheet would as well.[38] Their disappearance would take at least several centuries, but is considered almost inevitable, as their bedrock topography deepens inland and becomes more vulnerable to meltwater.[106][107][108]

The contribution of these glaciers to global sea levels has already accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century. The Thwaites Glacier now accounts for 4% of global sea level rise.

marine ice sheet instability hypothesis, where warm water enters between the seafloor and the base of the ice sheet once it is no longer heavy enough to displace the flow, causing accelerated melting and collapse.[112] Marine ice cliff instability, when ice cliffs with heights greater than 100 m (330 ft) collapse under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves, may also occur, though it has never been observed, and more detailed modelling has ruled it out.[113]

A graphical representation of how warm waters, and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and Marine Ice Cliff Instability processes are affecting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Other hard-to-model processes include hydrofracturing, where meltwater collects atop the ice sheet, pools into fractures and forces them open.[37] and changes in the ocean circulation at a smaller scale.[114][115][116] A combination of these processes could cause the WAIS to contribute up to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and up to 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one.[7]

The melting of all the

Eemian period 125,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to the early 21st century.[120][121][122][123][124][116][125] This disappearance would take an estimated 2000 years. The absolute minimum for the loss of West Antarctica ice is 500 years, and the potential maximum is 13,000 years.[79][80]

The only way to stop ice loss from West Antarctica once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[103] Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.[126][127]

Isostatic rebound

2021 research indicates that

isostatic rebound after the loss of the main portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet would ultimately add another 1.02 m (3 ft 4 in) to global sea levels. This effect would start to increase sea levels before 2100. However it would take 1000 years for it to cause 83 cm (2 ft 9 in) of sea level rise. At this point, West Antarctica itself would be 610 m (2,001 ft 4 in) higher than now. Estimates of isostatic rebound after the loss of East Antarctica's subglacial basins suggest increases of between 8 cm (3.1 in) and 57 cm (1 ft 10 in)[102]

Greenland ice sheet loss

Greenland 2007 melt, measured as the difference between the number of days on which melting occurred in 2007 compared to the average annual melting days from 1988 to 2006[128]

Most ice on Greenland is in the

IPCC assessment reports.[132][41]

In 2021,

surface mass balance feedbacks to reduce the sea levels by 2 cm (1 in). In the worst case, it adds 15 cm (6 in). For SSP5-8.5, the best-case scenario is adding 5 cm (2 in) to sea levels, and the worst-case is adding 23 cm (9 in).[7]
: 1260 

Trends of Greenland ice loss between 2002 and 2019[133]

Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997. Sea level rise from their loss is now unstoppable.[134][135][136] However the temperature changes in future, the warming of 2000–2019 had already damaged the ice sheet enough for it to eventually lose ~3.3% of its volume. This is leading to 27 cm (10+1⁄2 in) of future sea level rise.[137] At a certain level of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will almost completely melt. Ice cores show this happened at least once during the last million years, when the temperatures have at most been 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) warmer than the preindustrial.[138][139]

2012 research suggested that the tipping point of the ice sheet was between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3.2 °C (5.8 °F).[140] 2023 modelling has narrowed the tipping threshold to a 1.7 °C (3.1 °F)-2.3 °C (4.1 °F) range. If temperatures reach or exceed that level, reducing the global temperature to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial levels or lower would prevent the loss of the entire ice sheet. One way to do this in theory would be large-scale carbon dioxide removal. But it would also cause greater losses and sea level rise from Greenland than if the threshold was not breached in the first place.[141] Otherwise, the ice sheet would take between 10,000 and 15,000 years to disintegrate entirely once the tipping point had been crossed. The most likely estimate is 10,000 years.[79][80] If climate change continues along its worst trajectory and temperatures continue to rise quickly over multiple centuries, it would only take 1,000 years.[142]

Mountain glacier loss

Based on national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100—causing a sea level rise of 115±40 millimeters.[143]

There are roughly 200,000 glaciers on Earth, which are spread out across all continents.[144] Less than 1% of glacier ice is in mountain glaciers, compared to 99% in Greenland and Antarctica. However, this small size also makes mountain glaciers more vulnerable to melting than the larger ice sheets. This means they have had a disproportionate contribution to historical sea level rise and are set to contribute a smaller, but still significant fraction of sea level rise in the 21st century.[145] Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps show they contribute 0.2-0.4 mm per year to sea level rise, averaged over the 20th century.[146] The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was nearly as large as that of Greenland. It was 0.63 mm of sea level rise per year, equivalent to 34% of sea level rise from land ice sources.[131] Glaciers contributed around 40% to sea level rise during the 20th century, with estimates for the 21st century of around 30%.[5]

In 2023, a

Science paper estimated that at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), one quarter of mountain glacier mass would be lost by 2100 and nearly half would be lost at 4 °C (7.2 °F), contributing ~9 cm (3+1⁄2 in) and ~15 cm (6 in) to sea level rise, respectively. Glacier mass is disproportionately concentrated in the most resilient glaciers. So in practice this would remove 49-83% of glacier formations. It further estimated that the current likely trajectory of 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) would result in the SLR contribution of ~11 cm (4+1⁄2 in) by 2100.[147] Mountain glaciers are even more vulnerable over the longer term. In 2022, another Science paper estimated that almost no mountain glaciers could survive once warming crosses 2 °C (3.6 °F). Their complete loss is largely inevitable around 3 °C (5.4 °F). There is even a possibility of complete loss after 2100 at just 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). This could happen as early as 50 years after the tipping point is crossed, although 200 years is the most likely value, and the maximum is around 1000 years.[79][80]

Sea ice loss

Sea ice loss contributes very slightly to global sea level rise. If the melt water from ice floating in the sea was exactly the same as sea water then, according to

icebergs were to melt sea level would only rise by about 4 cm (1+1⁄2 in).[148]

GRACE
observations in gigatons per year, April 2002 to November 2014 (glaciers and ice sheets are excluded).

Changes to land water storage

See also: Groundwater-related subsidence

Human activity impacts how much water is stored on land. Dams retain large quantities of water, which is stored on land rather than flowing into the sea, though the total quantity stored will vary from time to time. On the other hand, humans extract water from lakes, wetlands and underground reservoirs for food production. This often causes subsidence. Furthermore, the hydrological cycle is influenced by climate change and deforestation. This can increase or reduce contributions to sea level rise. In the 20th century, these processes roughly balanced, but dam building has slowed down and is expected to stay low for the 21st century.[149][26]: 1155 

Water redistribution caused by irrigation from 1993 to 2010 caused a drift of Earth's rotational pole by 78.48 centimetres (30.90 in). This caused groundwater depletion equivalent to a global sea level rise of 6.24 millimetres (0.246 in).[150]

Impacts

See also: Human impacts on coasts, Coastal development hazards, and Coastal erosion
High tide flooding, also called tidal flooding, has become much more common in the past seven decades.[151]

Sea-level rise has many impacts. They include higher and more frequent high-tide and

urbanisation or deforestation of low-lying coastal zones exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. Regions already vulnerable to rising sea level also struggle with coastal flooding. This washes away land and alters the landscape.[152]

Changes in emissions are likely to have only a small effect on the extent of sea level rise by 2050.[6] So projected sea level rise could put tens of millions of people at risk by then. Scientists estimate that 2050 levels of sea level rise would result in about 150 million people under the water line during high tide. About 300 million would be in places flooded every year. This projection is based on the distribution of population in 2010. It does not take into account the effects of population growth and human migration. These figures are 40 million and 50 million more respectively than the numbers at risk in 2010.[13][153] By 2100, there would be another 40 million people under the water line during high tide if sea level rise remains low. This figure would be 80 million for a high estimate of median sea level rise.[13] Ice sheet processes under the highest emission scenario would result in sea level rise of well over one metre (3+1⁄4 ft) by 2100. This could be as much as over two metres (6+1⁄2 ft),[16][4]: TS-45  This could result in as many as 520 million additional people ending up under the water line during high tide and 640 million in places flooded every year, compared to the 2010 population distribution.[13]

Major cities threatened by sea level rise. The cities indicated are under threat of even a small sea level rise (of 1.6 feet/49 cm) compared to the level in 2010. Even moderate projections indicate that such a rise will have occurred by 2060.[154][155]

Over the longer term, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. They are also vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increased precipitation, and rising ocean temperatures. Ten percent of the world's population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres (33 ft) above sea level. Two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.[156] About 600 million people live directly on the coast around the world.[157] Cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai will be especially vulnerable later in the century under warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F). This is close to the current trajectory.[12][36] LiDAR-based research had established in 2021 that 267 million people worldwide lived on land less than 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) above sea level. With a 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) sea level rise and zero population growth, that could increase to 410 million people.[158][159]

Potential disruption of sea trade and migrations could impact people living further inland. United Nations Secretary-General

food shortages. This is a particularly acute issue for river deltas such as Nile Delta in Egypt and Red River and Mekong Deltas in Vietnam. Saltwater intrusion into the soil and irrigation water has a disproportionate effect on them.[163][164]

Ecosystems

See also: Extinction risk from climate change
Bramble Cay melomys, the first known mammal species to go extinct due to sea level rise.

Flooding and soil/water salinization threaten the habitats of

olive ridley turtles are expected to be flooded. The proportion will increase over time.[168] In 2016, Bramble Cay islet in the Great Barrier Reef was inundated. This flooded the habitat of a rodent named Bramble Cay melomys.[169] It was officially declared extinct in 2019.[170]

An example of mangrove pneumatophores.

Some ecosystems can move inland with the high-water mark. But natural or artificial barriers prevent many from migrating. This coastal narrowing is sometimes called 'coastal squeeze' when it involves human-made barriers. It could result in the loss of habitats such as

pneumatophores. These will be submerged if the rate is too rapid for them to migrate upward. This would result in the loss of an ecosystem.[172][173][174][175] Both mangroves and tidal marshes protect against storm surges, waves and tsunamis, so their loss makes the effects of sea level rise worse.[176][177] Human activities such as dam building may restrict sediment supplies to wetlands. This would prevent natural adaptation processes. The loss of some tidal marshes is unavoidable as a consequence.[178]

Corals are important for bird and fish life. They need to grow vertically to remain close to the sea surface in order to get enough energy from sunlight. The corals have so far been able to keep up the vertical growth with the rising seas, but might not be able to do so in the future.[179]

Regional impacts

Africa

Further information: Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa § Sea level rise
Aerial view of the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam

In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.[21]

Abidjan, the economic powerhouse of Ivory Coast
Maputo, the capital of Mozambique
Populations within 100-year floodplains.[21][T1 1]
Country 2000 2030 2060 Growth 2000–2060[T1 2]
Egypt 7.4 13.8 20.7 0.28
Nigeria 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.84
Senegal 0.4 1.1 2.7 0.76
Benin 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.12
Tanzania 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.3
Somalia 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.7
Cote d'Ivoire
 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.65
Mozambique 0.7 1.4 2.5 0.36
  1. ^ In millions of people. The second and third columns include both the effects of population growth and the increased extent of floodplains by that point.
  2. ^ The increase in area's population and the highest plausible scenario of population growth.
A man looking out over the beach from a building destroyed by high tides in Chorkor, a suburb of Accra. Sunny day flooding caused by sea level rise, increases coastal erosion that destroys housing, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. A number of communities in Coastal Ghana are already experiencing the changing tides.

In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the

GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.[21]

amphitheater
, with the sea visible in the background

In the longer term,

Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Provincial Nature Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel et Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d'Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Biosphere Reserve, Tanbi Wetland Complex and Watamu Marine National Park.[21]

Asia

Further information: Climate change in South Asia § Sea level rise
Matsukawaura Lagoon, located in Fukushima Prefecture of Honshu Island

As of 2022, some 63 million people in

Honshu Island would be up to 25 cm faster than the global average under RCP8.5, the intense climate change scenario. RCP8.5 would also see the loss of at least one third of Japanese beaches and 57–72% of Thai beaches.[17]

Modeling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$8.5, 24 or 15 billion from population displacement at those levels. China, India, the

Republic of Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Russia experience the largest economic losses.[17]

Out of the 20 coastal cities expected to see the highest flood losses by 2050, 13 are in Asia. For nine of these, subsidence would compound sea level rise. These are Bangkok, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Kolkata, Nagoya, Tianjin, Xiamen and Zhanjiang. By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated annual economic losses of US$254 million – the highest in the world. One estimate calculates that in the absence of adaptation, cumulative economic losses caused by sea level rise in Guangzhou under RCP8.5 would reach about US$331 billion by 2050, US$660 billion by 2070 and US$1.4 trillion by 2100. The impact of high-end ice sheet instability would increase these figures to about US$420 billion, US$840 billion and US$1.8 trillion respectively.[17]

In

GDP. But this would increase to 0.8% by 2100 even under the "moderate" RCP4.5 scenario in the absence of adaptation. Likewise, failing to adapt to sea level rise in Mumbai would result in damage of US$112–162 billion by 2050, which would nearly triple by 2070. Authorities are carrying out adaptation projects like the Mumbai Coastal Road. But they are likely to affect coastal ecosystems and fishing livelihoods.[17] Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.[181]

Sea level rise in Bangladesh may force the relocation of up to one third of power plants by 2030. A similar proportion would have to deal with increased salinity of their cooling water. Recent search indicates that by 2050 sea-level rise will displace 0.9-2.1 million people. This would require the creation of about 594,000 new jobs and 197,000 housing units in the areas receiving the displaced persons. It would also be necessary to supply an additional 783 billion calories worth of food.[17] Another paper in 2021 estimated that sea-level rise would displace 816,000 people by 2050. This would increase to 1.3 million when indirect effects are taken into account.[182] Both studies assume that most displaced people would travel to the other areas of Bangladesh. They try to estimate population changes in different places.

2010 estimates of population exposure to sea level rise in Bangladesh
Net Variations in the Population Due to Sea Level Rise in 2050 in Selected Districts.[182]
District Net flux (Davis et al., 2018) Net flux (De Lellis et al., 2021) Rank (Davis et al., 2018)[T2 1] Rank (De Lellis et al., 2021)
Dhaka 207,373 −34, 060 1 11
Narayanganj −95,003 −126,694 2 1
Shariatpur −80,916 −124,444 3 3
Barisal −80,669 −64,252 4 6
Munshiganj −77,916 −124,598 5 2
Madaripur 61,791 −937 6 60
Chandpur −37,711 −70,998 7 4
Jhalakati
 35,546 9,198 8 36
Satkhira −32,287 −19,603 9 23
Khulna −28,148 −9,982 10 33
Cox's Bazar −25,680 −16,366 11 24
Bagherat 24,860 12,263 12 28
  1. ^ Refers to the magnitude of population change relative to the other districts.

In an attempt to address these challenges, the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 was launched in 2018.[183][184] As of 2020, it was falling short of most of its initial targets.[185] The authorities are monitoring progress.[186]

In 2019, the president of Indonesia,

sinking so much that it was necessary to move the capital to another city.[187] A study conducted between 1982 and 2010 found some areas of Jakarta have sunk by up to 28 cm (11 inches) per year.[188] This was due to ground water drilling and the weight of buildings. Sea-level rise is now making this worse. There are concerns that building in a new place will increase the number of trees being cut down.[189][190] Other so-called sinking cities, such as Bangkok or Tokyo, are vulnerable to combination of subsidence and sea level rise.[191]

Australasia

King's Beach at Caloundra

In

railway lines would also be at risk. This amounts to a 111% rise in Australia's inundation costs between 2020 and 2100.[192]

Central and South America

An aerial view of São Paulo's Port of Santos

By 2100, coastal flooding and erosion will affect at least 3-4 million people in

Santa Catarina 76 times in one 6-year period in the 2010s. There was a US$25,000-50,000 loss for each idle day. In Port of Santos, storm surges were three times more frequent between 2000 and 2016 than between 1928 and 1999.[193]

Europe

Beach nourishment in progress in Barcelona.

Many sandy coastlines in Europe are vulnerable to erosion due to sea level rise. In Spain, Costa del Maresme is likely to retreat by 16 meters by 2050 relative to 2010. This could amount to 52 meters by 2100 under RCP8.5[194] Other vulnerable coastlines include the Tyrrhenian Sea coast of Italy's Calabria region,[195] the Barra-Vagueira coast in Portugal[196] and Nørlev Strand in Denmark.[197]

In France, it was estimated that 8,000-10,000 people would be forced to migrate away from the coasts by 2080.

Thames and 30 to 90 centimeters at Edinburgh.[202] The UK has divided its coast into 22 areas, each covered by a Shoreline Management Plan. Those are sub-divided into 2000 management units, working across three periods of 0–20, 20-50 and 50–100 years.[201]

The

dikes. Worst-case evacuation plans were also drawn up.[205]

North America

Tidal flooding in Miami during a king tide (October 17, 2016). The risk of tidal flooding increases with sea level rise.

As of 2017, around 95 million Americans lived on the coast. The figures for

Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel could amount to US$1.4–2.3 billion.[212] The increase in storm surge due to sea level rise is also a problem. Due to this effect Hurricane Sandy caused an additional US$8 billion in damage, impacted 36,000 more houses and 71,000 more people.[213][214]

In future, the northern

National Register for Historic Places.[212]

Island nations

Malé, the capital island of Maldives.
Further information:
Effects of climate change on island nations, Small Island Developing States, and Alliance of Small Island States

Small island states are nations with populations on

Western Pacific.[223]

Surface area change of islands in the Central Pacific and Solomon Islands[224]

Adaptation to sea level rise is costly for small island nations as a large portion of their population lives in areas that are at risk.

climate refugees.[227] In 2014, Kiribati purchased 20 square kilometers of land (about 2.5% of Kiribati's current area) on the Fijian island of Vanua Levu to relocate its population once their own islands are lost to the sea.[228]

sea walls. The nations of Palau and Tonga are taking similar steps.[226][230] Even when an island is not threatened with complete disappearance from flooding, tourism and local economies may end up devastated. For instance, sea level rise of 1.0 m (3 ft 3 in) would cause partial or complete inundation of 29% of coastal resorts in the Caribbean. A further 49–60% of coastal resorts would be at risk from resulting coastal erosion.[231]

Adaptation

Further information: Climate change adaptation and coastal management
Oosterscheldekering, the largest barrier of the Dutch Delta Works.

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can slow and stabilize the rate of sea level rise after 2050. This would greatly reduce its costs and damages, but cannot stop it outright. So climate change adaptation to sea level rise is inevitable.[232]: 3–127  The simplest approach is to stop development in vulnerable areas and ultimately move people and infrastructure away from them. Such retreat from sea level rise often results in the loss of livelihoods. The displacement of newly impoverished people could burden their new homes and accelerate social tensions.[233]

It is possible to avoid or at least delay the retreat from sea level rise with enhanced protections. These include

GDP of India and Southeast Asia then attempting to protect every coastline, in the case of very high sea level rise.[239]

Planning for the future sea level rise used in the United Kingdom.[201]

To be successful, adaptation must anticipate sea level rise well ahead of time. As of 2023, the global state of adaptation planning is mixed. A survey of 253 planners from 49 countries found that 98% are aware of sea level rise projections, but 26% have not yet formally integrated them into their policy documents. Only around a third of respondents from Asian and South American countries have done so. This compares with 50% in Africa, and over 75% in Europe, Australasia and North America. Some 56% of all surveyed planners have plans which account for 2050 and 2100 sea level rise. But 53% use only a single projection rather than a range of two or three projections. Just 14% use four projections, including the one for "extreme" or "high-end" sea level rise.

American South had only a single estimate. Similarly, no assessment from the South went beyond 2100. By contrast 14 assessments from the West went up to 2150, and three from the Northeast went to 2200. 56% of all localities were also found to underestimate the upper end of sea level rise relative to IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.[241]

See also

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External links

The Wikibook Historical Geology has a page on the topic of: Sea level variations
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sea_level_rise&oldid=1219610382"