The Politics of Uncertainty: Difference between revisions
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The volume takes issue with reductionism, defined as a tendency to reduce complex socio-political dilemmas to choices driven by straightforward metrics, suppressing uncertainty and ambiguity.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | veditors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | date= 2020 | chapter=The politics of uncertainty | title=Uncertainty and the Politics of Transformation | publisher=Routledge | pages=1/30}}</ref> It offers examples of compression of uncertainty in policy evaluations via technologies of quantification, arguing that the modern apparatus of computation does away with uncertainty and ambiguity, aiming to reduce them to risk.<ref name="IA">{{cite journal | vauthors=((Saltelli, A.)), ((Kuc Czarnecka, M.)), ((Lo Piano, S.)), ((Lőrincz, M. J.)), ((Olczyk, M.)), ((Puy, A.)), ((Reinert, E. S.)), ((Smith, S.)), ((Sluijs, J. P. van der)) | journal=SSRN Electronic Journal | title=A new gaze for impact assessment practices in the European Union | issue=4157018 | date= 2022 | url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=4157018}}</ref> An example is the case of financial mathematics that colonizes the future by transforming it into an occasion for profit in the present.<ref name="Walter"/> |
The volume takes issue with reductionism, defined as a tendency to reduce complex socio-political dilemmas to choices driven by straightforward metrics, suppressing uncertainty and ambiguity.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | veditors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | date= 2020 | chapter=The politics of uncertainty | title=Uncertainty and the Politics of Transformation | publisher=Routledge | pages=1/30}}</ref> It offers examples of compression of uncertainty in policy evaluations via technologies of quantification, arguing that the modern apparatus of computation does away with uncertainty and ambiguity, aiming to reduce them to risk.<ref name="IA">{{cite journal | vauthors=((Saltelli, A.)), ((Kuc Czarnecka, M.)), ((Lo Piano, S.)), ((Lőrincz, M. J.)), ((Olczyk, M.)), ((Puy, A.)), ((Reinert, E. S.)), ((Smith, S.)), ((Sluijs, J. P. van der)) | journal=SSRN Electronic Journal | title=A new gaze for impact assessment practices in the European Union | issue=4157018 | date= 2022 | doi=10.2139/ssrn.4157018 | url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=4157018}}</ref> An example is the case of financial mathematics that colonizes the future by transforming it into an occasion for profit in the present.<ref name="Walter"/> |
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One chapter specific to EU policymaking suggests a reductionist tendency in EU policy assessment, and explains it with institutional features of the EU: the single market needs a centralized, hence standardized, risk assessment approach, and the EU has a generally pro-industry (e.g. biotech) growth agenda. Another institutional concern is the fear of opening the road to endless deconstruction of planned policies and to regulations that are more expensive.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors=((Zwanenberg, P. van)) | veditors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | date= 2020 | chapter=The politics of uncertainty | title=The unravelling of technocratic orthodoxy | publisher=Routledge | pages=58–72}}</ref><ref name="IA"/> |
One chapter specific to EU policymaking suggests a reductionist tendency in EU policy assessment, and explains it with institutional features of the EU: the single market needs a centralized, hence standardized, risk assessment approach, and the EU has a generally pro-industry (e.g. biotech) growth agenda. Another institutional concern is the fear of opening the road to endless deconstruction of planned policies and to regulations that are more expensive.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors=((Zwanenberg, P. van)) | veditors=((Scoones, I.)), ((Stirling, A.)) | date= 2020 | chapter=The politics of uncertainty | title=The unravelling of technocratic orthodoxy | publisher=Routledge | pages=58–72}}</ref><ref name="IA"/> |
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== Reception == |
== Reception == |
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For |
For<ref name="Meckin">{{cite journal | vauthors=((Meckin, R.)), ((Nind, M.)), ((Coverdale, A.)) | journal=International Journal of Social Research Methodology | title=Uncertainties in a time of changing research practices | volume=26 | issue=5 | pages=507–513 | publisher=Routledge | date=3 September 2023 | issn=1364-5579 | doi=10.1080/13645579.2023.2173421}}</ref> this volume illuminates how governments and private actors (e.g. insurances) may attempt to deal with non-knowledge by formulating uncertainty as risk. This is a reference to the [[Knightian uncertainty |Knightian distinction]] between quantifiable risk and unquantifiable uncertainty. For<ref name="Meckin"/> by transforming the lack of knowledge in a calculable risk favours forms of decisionism and [[reductionism]]. A discussion of the book in podcast<ref>{{Citation | vauthors=((Edwards, G.)) | title=The politics of uncertainty - Andy Stirling, Ian Scoones, Sobia Kaker | url=https://www.ids.ac.uk/events/podcast-s03-ep02-the-politics-of-uncertainty-andy-stirling-ian-scoones-sobia-kaker/ | access-date=17 February 2024}}</ref> has been produced by the [[Institute of Development Studies]]. The book is cited in debates about sustainability transition and transformation.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors=((Özkaynak, B.)), ((Turhan, E.)), ((Aydın, C. İ.)) | veditors=((Rodríguez, I.)), ((Walter, M.)), ((Temper, L.)) | date=20 December 2023 | chapter=Just Transformations: Grassroots Struggles for Alternative Futures | title='Mirror, Mirror on the Wall': A Reflection on Engaged Just Transformations Research under Turkey's Authoritarian Populist Regime | publisher=Pluto Press | pages=80–102}}</ref> |
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For<ref name="Bathla">{{cite journal | vauthors=((Bathla, N.)) | journal=The Geographical Journal | title=Extended urbanisation and the politics of uncertainty: The contested pathways of highway corridors in India | volume=190 | issue=1 | pages=e12441 | date= 2024 | issn=1475-4959 | doi=10.1111/geoj.12441| hdl=20.500.11850/543466 | hdl-access=free }}</ref> the book illustrates political use of uncertainty: |
For<ref name="Bathla">{{cite journal | vauthors=((Bathla, N.)) | journal=The Geographical Journal | title=Extended urbanisation and the politics of uncertainty: The contested pathways of highway corridors in India | volume=190 | issue=1 | pages=e12441 | date= 2024 | issn=1475-4959 | doi=10.1111/geoj.12441| bibcode=2024GeogJ.190E2441B | hdl=20.500.11850/543466 | hdl-access=free }}</ref> the book illustrates political use of uncertainty: |
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{{Blockquote |
{{Blockquote |
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|text=…the politics of the marginalised urban majority across the global south is most often framed towards confronting uncertainty (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2) or what can be understood as ‘politics of uncertainty’. The inability to embrace and foreground uncertainty [forecloses] possible futures (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2).}} |
|text=…the politics of the marginalised urban majority across the global south is most often framed towards confronting uncertainty (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2) or what can be understood as ‘politics of uncertainty’. The inability to embrace and foreground uncertainty [forecloses] possible futures (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2).}} |
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Latest revision as of 22:37, 20 May 2024
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| Editors | Ian Scoones Andy Stirling | |
|---|---|---|
| Language | English | |
| Subjects | Science and technology studies ISBN 9780367903350 | |
The Politics of Uncertainty. Challenges of Transformation is a multi-authors book edited by Ian Scoones and Andy Stirling, and published in 2020 by Routledge.
Synopsis
Written by several authors, the volume[1] explores issues and challenges linked to uncertainty and its treatment in a variety of policy issues such as finance and banking,[2] insurance,[3] and the regulation of technology.[4] The book also explore dimensions of uncertainty linked to climate change, disease outbreaks, critical infrastructures, migration, natural disasters, crime, security, and religion.
Main
The book takes issue against singular notions of modernity and progress as a hard- wired ‘one- track’ ‘race to the future'.[5] For the authors, the suppression of uncertainty can lead to narrow and simplified narratives about what constitutes progress, and prematurely foreclose policy options.
Examples where sustainability is seen framed around pre-selected direction of innovation and progress, with neglect of technical and political dimensions of uncertainty, can be found in relation to:[5]
‘smart cities’, ‘climate- smart agriculture’, ‘clean development’, ‘geo- engineering’, ‘green growth’ or ‘zero- carbon economies’.
Moving from the classic distinctions between risk and uncertainty of Frank Knight and that between uncertainty and indeterminacy of Brian Wynne[6] the authors explore with examples material, cultural, contextual and practical dimensions of uncertainty and how these play out in public affairs.
| Title | Author |
|---|---|
| Chapter 1:
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POLITICS OF TRANSFORMATION |
Ian Scoones and Andy Stirling |
| Chapter 2:
THE ASSAULT OF FINANCIAL FUTURES ON THE REST OF TIME |
Timo Walter and Leon Wansleben |
| Chapter 3:
SHARING RISKS OR PROLIFERATING UNCERTAINTIES? Insurance, disaster and development |
Leigh Johnson |
| Chapter 4:
THE UNRAVELLING OF TECHNOCRATIC ORTHODOXY? Contemporary knowledge politics in technology regulation Insurance, disaster and development |
Patrick van Zwanenberg |
| Chapter 5:
CONTROL, MANAGE OR COPE? A politics for risks, uncertainties and unknown- unknowns |
Emery Roe |
| Chapter 6:
EXPANDING CITIES Living, planning and governing uncertainty |
Sobia Ahmad Kaker, James Evans, Federico Cugurullo, Matthew Cook and Saska Petrova |
| Chapter 7:
UNCERTAINTY IN MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE The possibilities of co- production through knowledge pluralism1 |
Lyla Mehta and Shilpi Srivastava |
| Chapter 8:
DISEASE OUTBREAKS Navigating uncertainties in preparedness and response |
Hayley MacGregor, Santiago Ripoll and Melissa Leach |
| Chapter 9:
DISASTERS, HUMANITARIANISM AND EMERGENCIES A politics of uncertainty |
Mark Pelling, Detlef Müller-Mahn and John McCloskey |
| Chapter 10:
INTERTWINING THE POLITICS OF UNCERTAINTY, MOBILITY AND IMMOBILITY |
Dorte Thorsen |
| Chapter 11:
DISPUTING SECURITY AND RISK The convoluted politics of uncertainty |
Helena Farrand Carrapico, Narzanin Massoumi,
William McGowan and Gabe Mythen |
| Chapter 12:
UNSETTLING THE APOCALYPSE Uncertainty in spirituality and religion |
Nathan Oxley |
The volume takes issue with reductionism, defined as a tendency to reduce complex socio-political dilemmas to choices driven by straightforward metrics, suppressing uncertainty and ambiguity.[7] It offers examples of compression of uncertainty in policy evaluations via technologies of quantification, arguing that the modern apparatus of computation does away with uncertainty and ambiguity, aiming to reduce them to risk.[8] An example is the case of financial mathematics that colonizes the future by transforming it into an occasion for profit in the present.[2]
One chapter specific to EU policymaking suggests a reductionist tendency in EU policy assessment, and explains it with institutional features of the EU: the single market needs a centralized, hence standardized, risk assessment approach, and the EU has a generally pro-industry (e.g. biotech) growth agenda. Another institutional concern is the fear of opening the road to endless deconstruction of planned policies and to regulations that are more expensive.[9][8]
Reception
For[10] this volume illuminates how governments and private actors (e.g. insurances) may attempt to deal with non-knowledge by formulating uncertainty as risk. This is a reference to the Knightian distinction between quantifiable risk and unquantifiable uncertainty. For[10] by transforming the lack of knowledge in a calculable risk favours forms of decisionism and reductionism. A discussion of the book in podcast[11] has been produced by the Institute of Development Studies. The book is cited in debates about sustainability transition and transformation.[12]
For[13] the book illustrates political use of uncertainty:
…the politics of the marginalised urban majority across the global south is most often framed towards confronting uncertainty (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2) or what can be understood as ‘politics of uncertainty’. The inability to embrace and foreground uncertainty [forecloses] possible futures (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 2).
The same author[13] notes the 'closing down' operated by a political use of uncertainty in commodification, financialisation and bureaucratisation, and how this forecloses possible alternative futures:
While forms of micro-exploitation and competing interests are continuously negotiated and managed under uncertainty, interrogating everyday experiences of uncertainty can […] thus resist the ‘closing down’ effects of commodification, financialisation and bureaucratisation (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, p. 21). Crucially, opening up to the ‘politics of uncertainty’ offers an opportunity to confront the contradictions of modernity, development and progress with a politics of hope, especially in how we understand, frame and construct possible futures (Scoones & Stirling, 2020, pp. 2, 4).
See also
- Risk Society
- Knightian uncertainty
- Sociology of quantification
References
- ^ Scoones, I., & Stirling, A. (2020). The Politics of Uncertainty. (I. Scoones & A. Stirling, Eds.), Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2020. | Series: Pathways to sustainability: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9781003023845
- ^ a b Walter, T., & Wansleben, L. (2020). The assault of financial futures on the rest of the time. In I. Scoones & A. Stirling, eds., The politics of uncertainty, Abingdon: Routledge.
- ^ Johnson, L. (2020). Sharing risks or proliferating uncertainties? Insurance, disaster and development. In The Politics of Uncertainty, Ian Scoones and Andy Stirling, Routledge.
- ^ van Zwanenberg, P. (2020). The unravelling of technocratic ortodoxy. In I. Scoones & A. Stirling, eds., The politics of uncertainty, Routledge, , pp. 58–72.
- ^ a b Scoones, I., & Stirling, A. (2020). Uncertainty and the Politics of Transformation. In I. Scoones & A. Stirling, eds., The politics of uncertainty, Abingdon: Routledge, , p. 1/30.
- ^ Wynne, B. (1992). Uncertainty and environmental learning 1, 2Reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. Global Environmental Change, 2(2), 111–127.
- ^ Scoones, I., Stirling, A. (2020). "The politics of uncertainty". In Scoones, I., Stirling, A. (eds.). Uncertainty and the Politics of Transformation. Routledge. pp. 1/30.
- ^ .
- ^ Zwanenberg, P. van (2020). "The politics of uncertainty". In Scoones, I., Stirling, A. (eds.). The unravelling of technocratic orthodoxy. Routledge. pp. 58–72.
- ^ ISSN 1364-5579.
- ^ Edwards, G., The politics of uncertainty - Andy Stirling, Ian Scoones, Sobia Kaker, retrieved 17 February 2024
- ^ Özkaynak, B., Turhan, E., Aydın, C. İ. (20 December 2023). "Just Transformations: Grassroots Struggles for Alternative Futures". In Rodríguez, I., Walter, M., Temper, L. (eds.). 'Mirror, Mirror on the Wall': A Reflection on Engaged Just Transformations Research under Turkey's Authoritarian Populist Regime. Pluto Press. pp. 80–102.
- ^ ISSN 1475-4959.