By-election

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A by-election, also known as a special election in the

general elections
.

A vacancy may arise as a result of an incumbent dying or resigning, or when the incumbent becomes ineligible to continue in office (because of a recall, a prohibited dual mandate, criminal conviction, or failure to maintain a minimum attendance), or when an election is invalidated by voting irregularities. In some cases a vacancy may be filled by a method other than a by-election (such as the outgoing member's party nominating a replacement) or the office may be left vacant. These elections can be held anytime in the country.

An election to fill a vacancy created when a general election cannot take place in a particular constituency (such as if a candidate dies shortly before election day) may be called a by-election in some jurisdictions, or may have a distinct name (e.g., supplementary election, as in Australia).

Origins

The procedure for filling a vacant seat in the House of Commons of England was developed during the Reformation Parliament of the 16th century by Thomas Cromwell; previously a seat had remained empty upon the death of a member. Cromwell devised a new election that would be called by the king at a time of the king's choosing. This made it a simple matter to ensure the seat rewarded an ally of the crown.[1]

During the eighteen-year Cavalier Parliament of Charles II, which lasted from 1661 to 1679, by-elections were the primary means by which new members entered the House of Commons.[2]

In single-member constituencies

A 1768 political cartoon about a by-election during the Middlesex election affair.

By-elections are held in most nations that elect their parliaments through

French National Assembly, by-elections are only used to fill some vacancies, with the others being filled by the assumption of a seat by a running mate
nominated by the vacator.

In the United States, these contests have been called "special elections" because they do not always occur on

Senate, where it is up to law of the state involved to determine how the vacancy is filled).[5]
In most cases where a vacancy is filled through a special election, a primary will also be held to determine which candidates will represent the major parties.

In multi-member constituencies

When one seat in a

multi-member constituency
becomes vacant, the consequences vary. For example, a by-election may be held to fill just the vacancy, all the seats in the constituency could be contested in the by-election, or the vacancy could be filled by other means.

Typically, party-list proportional representation systems do not hold by-elections. Instead, the most successful unelected candidate named on the vacator's list fills the vacancy automatically. However, Turkey is an exception, as it holds by-elections when too many seats become vacant in the parliament (as in 1986) or a repeat vote has to be held (as in 2003).

In multi-member district systems that do not employ party lists –

plurality at-large – vacancies may be filled by a by-election. This is done, for example, in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland (STV), in the Parliament of Vanuatu (SNTV), and in the Senate of the Philippines
(Pl. AL). In those systems, alternatives to holding a by-election include:

  1. re-determining the election results with the vacators disregarded, as in Tasmania[6] or the Australian Capital Territory,[7]
  2. keeping the seat vacant until the next general election. This usually occurs if a vacancy arises shortly before a planned general election (within six months in New Zealand).
  3. nominating another candidate with the same affiliation as the former member, such as European Parliament seats in the Republic of Ireland.

For the Australian Senate (in which each state forms a multi-member constituency elected via single transferable vote), the state parliament appoints a replacement in the event of a vacancy; in 1977 a referendum amended the Constitution to require that the person appointed must belong to the same political party (if any) as the Senator originally elected to that seat. The states with an upper house elected via STV (NSW, Victoria, and South Australia) use the same method, except for Western Australia, which holds a recount of ballots to determine the new winner, with sitting members retaining their seats.

In mixed systems

Parliament of New Zealand in March 2011, Louisa Wall filled the seat after all the five candidates above her on the New Zealand Labour Party's list declined it.[9]

Exceptions to this rule exist: In the German Bundestag, which uses mixed-member proportional representation, by-elections were originally held upon the vacancy of any constituency seat. This was changed in January 1953, since which time vacancies in constituency seats have been filled by the next candidate on the state list of the party which won the seat, in the same manner as vacancies among list seats. Confusingly, this change occurred alongside a switch from mixed single vote, where a single set of votes was used for both constituency and list seats, to a conventional two-vote mixed member proportional system - a change which granted constituency members an electoral mandate distinct from the party's list seats. By-elections are now only held if a vacancy arises in a constituency seat and there is no associated party list with which to fill it – typically, if the former member was elected as an independent. This is referred to as a substitute election (Ersatzwahl). Since no independents have been elected to the Bundestag since the first legislative period, no such substitute election has ever taken place.[10]

Significance and consequences

Direct effects

By-elections can be crucial when the ruling party has only a small majority. In

Scott Brown's election in 2010 ended the filibuster-proof supermajority formerly enjoyed by Democrats
.

By-elections can also be important if a minority party needs to gain one or more seats in order to gain official party status or the balance of power in a minority or coalition situation. For example, Andrea Horwath's win in an Ontario provincial by-election in 2004 allowed the Ontario New Democratic Party to regain official party status with important results in terms of parliamentary privileges and funding.

In 1996 in the Australian state of Queensland the seat of Mundingburra where in the 1995 state election Wayne Goss and his Labor Party won by a slim 45-seat majority in a 89-seat parliament. The seat was decided by 16 votes but due to difficulties and irregularities in the voting led to a by-election where the rival Liberal Party won the seat pushing Goss' government in minority and with Independent Liz Cunningham teaming up to push a motion of no confidence in the government. After the motion or no confidence Rob Borbidge the leader of the Nationals the senior partner in the coalition became premier until his government's defeat in the 1998 state election.

Predictive value

Non-experts often interpret by-election results as a bellwether or early indicator of the results of the next general election, but political scientists generally caution against overinterpretation. The evidence suggests that while the margin of victory relative to the district's normal performance may be relevant, other indicators generally provide stronger evidence with a larger sample size.[11]

A 2016 study of special elections to the United States House of Representatives found "that while candidate characteristics affect special election outcomes, presidential approval is predictive of special election outcomes as well. Furthermore, we find that the effect of presidential approval on special election outcomes has increased in magnitude from 1995 to 2014, with the 2002 midterm representing an important juncture in the nationalization of special elections."[12]

Seats which have unexpectedly changed hands in by-elections often revert to the former party in the next general election. One reason for this is that voter turnout at by-elections tends to be lower and skewed toward highly motivated supporters of the opposition party.

Indirect impact

Mary Ellen Smith became the first woman in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia in a 1918 by-election, the first election in which women of the province could vote.[13]

By-election upsets can have a psychological impact by creating a sense of momentum for one party or a sense of impending defeat for a government. For example, in Canada,

New Democratic Party (NDP). Gilles Duceppe's 1990 upset landslide by-election victory in Laurier—Sainte-Marie with 66% of the vote on behalf of the newly formed Bloc Québécois was the first electoral test for what was initially a loose parliamentary formation created two months earlier after several Quebec MPs defected from the Progressive Conservative and Liberal parties to protest the failure of the Meech Lake Accord
and provided the first indication that the party could be a serious force in the province of Quebec. On the strength of the by-election victory, the BQ went on to be officially formed as a party in 1991 and win 54 seats in the 1993 federal election, enough to form the Official Opposition.

By-elections may occur singly or in small bunches, especially if the authority responsible for calling them has discretion over the timing and can procrastinate. They are sometimes bunched to save money, as holding multiple by-elections is likely to cost more than holding a by-election to fill the vacancies all at once. In Canada, in 1978,

de facto referendum on democratizing the Hong Kong political system. The effect of the manoeuvre was blunted when the Pro-Beijing camp
refused to stand candidates against them.

Upsets

Australia

The

first-past-the-post system at the time, the conservative vote was split between the Country and Nationalists, allowing Labor candidate Edwin Corboy to come in first place and win the seat. The Swan by-election is cited as the reason for the introduction of preferential voting, to prevent Labor from benefiting from a divided opposition in the future.[14]

The

two-party-preferred swing was required for the Liberal Party to lose the seat. Ultimately, the Liberals suffered a 19.0% swing to Phelps, the largest by-election swing in Australian history, which won her the seat. This loss deprived the Liberal Party of its majority in federal Parliament, forcing them into a minority government
.

Canada

In 1942, the Conservatives'

Joseph Noseworthy of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation
ended his political career, and may also have been a factor in the Conservative Party's decision to move to the left and rebrand itself the Progressive Conservative Party under Meighen's replacement. Noseworthy's victory was also a significant breakthrough for the CCF giving it credibility as a national party where it has previously been seen as a Western Canadian regional protest party.

On November 1, 1944, General

Minister of Defence without having a seat in parliament, after his predecessor resigned during the Conscription Crisis of 1944. A by-election was arranged in Grey North which the opposition Progressive Conservative party contested. The major campaign issue became the government's policy of "limited conscription" during World War II, which McNaughton supported, and which the Conservatives rejected. They called, instead, for "full conscription". McNaughton was defeated in the February 5, 1945 by-election. As a result, with confidence in his government undermined, Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King called the 1945 federal election
several weeks later; originally he had intended to postpone the election until the war was clearly won. McNaughton sought a seat in the 1945 contest but was again defeated, and resigned shortly after.

The most recent example of a cabinet minister appointed from outside parliament having to resign after losing a by-election was in 1975, when Minister of Communications Pierre Juneau was appointed to Pierre Trudeau's Liberal cabinet directly from the private sector, and tried to enter parliament through a by-election in Hochelaga. Juneau unexpectedly lost to the Progressive Conservative candidate and resigned from cabinet 10 days after his by-election defeat.

In

Ontario legislature
. His by-election defeat resulted in his resignation as party leader.

In British Columbia, sitting Premier Christy Clark lost her seat in the 2013 British Columbia general election. In order to remain in the legislature, she convinced her fellow caucus member Ben Stewart of Westside-Kelowna to resign as an MLA twenty-two days after the general election, so Clark could run in a by-election before the legislature's first session. Clark was successful and remained in government until 2017.

Hong Kong

In the

first past the post by-election because both pro-democracy camp and pro-Beijing camp would only nominate one candidate to fill in the by-election. However, the pro-democracy camp lost twice in Kowloon West
, which had been considered a safe seat for them.

Singapore

Main article: By-elections in Singapore

Under Article 49(1) of the

Single Member Constituency[16] - within a reasonable time period.[17]
Since the introduction of partial self-governance in 1955, 34 by-elections have been held, and some have been major upsets:

Ireland

A

Anti-Austerity Alliance candidate, Paul Murphy, was elected on the eighth count. Although Murphy had received a lower first preference total than Cathal King, he outperformed the Sinn Féin candidate in attracting transfers. Murphy then took his seat in the 31st Dáil. As a direct result of this defeat in the by-election, Sinn Féin hardened their stance against Irish Water
and called for the complete abolition of water charges in Ireland.

United Kingdom

In 1965, the

UK Parliament, having been defeated in controversial circumstances in Smethwick at the previous year's general election. His appointment as a senior minister while not a member of either house of Parliament was against convention, and he therefore sought to regularise the position by standing in the first available by-election, which was at Leyton
in January 1965. However a strong swing against Labour resulted in Gordon Walker's defeat: as a result, he resigned as Foreign Secretary.

United States

In 2010, Republican Scott Brown defeated Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election to the United States Senate. Coakley, a Democrat, had been widely expected to win, but Brown unexpectedly closed the gap and won, a shocking result in the heavily-Democratic state of Massachusetts. This eliminated the Democratic Party's filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes. Another upset occurred in the 2017 special election in Alabama, one of the most heavily Republican states in the nation. Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in a close race after Moore was credibly accused of sexual assault by multiple women.

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ Jennifer Loach. Parliament Under the Tudors. Clarendon Press. Oxford. 1990. p. 36
  2. ^ By-Elections in British Politics. UCL Press, London. 1997 pg. 1
  3. ^ Buonomo, Giampiero (2006). I subentri nelle assemblee parlamentari (in Italian). Quaderni costituzionali.
  4. Constitution of United States
     (1789)
  5. Constitution of United States
     (1913)
  6. ^ "Tasmania's Hare-Clark Electoral System". Archived from the original on 2011-04-23.
  7. ^ "Casual Vacancies in the Legislative Assembly". 25 March 2021.
  8. ^ "Abe's Widow, Akie, Not to Run in Lower House By-Election". nippon.com. 21 July 2022. Retrieved 30 December 2022.
  9. ^ "Louisa Wall back in Parliament". The New Zealand Herald. 6 April 2011. Retrieved 9 December 2015.
  10. ^ "Nachwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 21 July 2020.
  11. ^ Nate Silver (September 13, 2011). "A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin". FiveThirtyEight.
  12. S2CID 216142342
    .
  13. ^ "1917 - Women Win the Right to Vote". Legislative Assembly of British Columbia.
  14. ^ Green, Antony (2004). "History of Preferential Voting in Australia". Antony Green Election Guide: Federal Election 2004. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 2020-06-15.
  15. ^ "Constitution of the Republic of Singapore - Singapore Statutes Online".
  16. ^ "Parliamentary Elections Act 1954 - Singapore Statutes Online".
  17. ^ "[2013] Sgca 39".

External links

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